Corona virus in China


blr_p

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Interesting listen. Here is the Garry Craig video referred to for improved breathing


He says his blood oxygen went from 93 to 99 within 48 hours
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Just to be clear, plain old soap with a proper hand rub for 20s does a pretty effective job. Hand sanitiser is for when you don't have water available


He mentions iso propyl alcohol but the WHO guide also has a recipe for surgical spirits or ethanol

 
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6pack

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Yup, I saw that video too. It's just a yoga technique for deep breathing.

His wife said the same thing about soap and water too. Btw, they reached the UK a few hours back and will be giving an interview on Monday I think. Looking at his experience and the UK's "herd immunity" idea, I don't think there is any immunity to be had here if the virus is making way for old people to get infected with pneumonia or other respiratory diseases. Plus to add to this, already 11 different strains have been found in India. I don't know how many strains are there of this virus since it seems to be mutating very fast. Probably the strains found in Canada, China, Japan, Italy, USA etc are different too. UK is taking this too lightly imo.
 

blr_p

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Estimates on real numbers of infected

For India, cases reported as of today is 102 with 2 deaths

There are some models to estimate the true number. What's reported is just the known number not the true number which we only find out later.

1) One approximation is to multiply infected reported by 10 - 20. Now you get a range.
Multiply 10 - 20 gives between 1,000 to 2,000 true cases


2) If there are any deaths this can be used as well. Presently there are 2

Assume a fatality rate of 1%

If there are 2 deaths then infected will be 200

It takes around 17 days on average to die from getting infected for the vulnerable.

It takes 6.2 days for infected to double

So in 18 days there are 3 doublings

200 --1st double --400 --2nd double-- 800 --3rd double-- 1600

India's true case count is around 1.6k infected

When number of infected is in the 3 digits the first way gives us a number close to the one worked out through deaths of the second way


3) Yet another way is to just use doubling and assume clock begins at the beginning of January. Five doublings per month

We are at 2^13 = 8,192

If it started later than Jan then number will be less 2^11 = 2,048

People looking at this and thinking if there are 100 reported cases then how the heck can true number be up to 2k !!!!

Remember, the Chinese thought the same as well ; )


How many has India tested ? just over 6k which is pretty low. There are concerns raised about testing in India

public-health experts have highlighted two primary concerns with the Indian government’s response to the ongoing crisis.

First, the health ministry has restricted testing for COVID-19 to the few government-accredited laboratories in the country.

Second, the government is limiting the tests only to those with a travel history, and those who came in contact with international travellers.
In the press conference, Lal Agarwal (secretary of the Health ministry) stated that twelve states across the country had reported positive cases of COVID-19.

Given the extent to which it had spread already, public-health experts had hoped that the testing parameters would be expanded to include people without a travel history, which would reveal the full scale of crisis.

But Agarwal made it clear that the Indian government had “no plans to revise testing parameters, as testing everyone would create panic.”
Experts also hoped that the health ministry would allow private laboratories to test for COVID-19, so as to not overwhelm the government sector. “There is a real concern that the government is not expanding testing parameters to include everyone because they want to keep the numbers low,” an epidemiologist working with a global-health organisation said, on the condition of anonymity. “If you are not looking for cases, you are not going to find any cases. How can the government know that there is no community transmission, when they are not testing enough people?”
As of 12 March, the testing was limited to 52 government centres, and there were 56 collection centres where samples could be given. But Agarwal maintained that the country had adequate testing centres and “there was no need to involve the private sector for testing.”

The central government has also invoked the Epidemics Diseases Act of 1897, which allows a state to prosecute any person or institution violating quarantine norms. The decision was taken after a patient in Bangalore and another in Punjab, who had been quarantined in local hospitals with symptoms of COVID-19, went missing.
Clearly they want to keep a strict control on information. They have so such control over a private institute.

It's also about resources. They don't want to be overwhelmed. Can't say this is good idea.

And what if the numbers spike as would happen in the case of community spread. What then ?

We have thermally scanned over 100k passengers to date but that method can potentially allow 46% already infected through.

That means in theory, 50k or less pre-symptomatic infected could have entered India's airports.

31k are in the surveillance network already. I don't know what tripwires GOI is relying on with them.

Maybe we are at the same state as Germany but we don't know it.

Which means clamping down in India NOW like Germany is doing is a good idea ?

So the range of true infected for India could be 2 - 8k !!!

Only more testing will establish which end of that range we are at.

Need to pay attention to the neighbours. Whether any cases emerge saying they got infected in India. That will suggest community spread is already occurring in India.
 

Engineer.AI

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India is not even in that list, we're up to 5k tests i would assume which is low.


For exampe ?
Blockchain Tracker

~Vibhor Tyagi (Techie at Engineer.AI)
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Although things are being looked into with severity, there is almost no reason to believe that the minuscule infection rate of 1% (which India currently holds) cant get any much worse. I've seen the news reports for these 'testing' facilities, but have not been clarified about the amenities they provide - I don't think anybody has, for the fear of contracting the disease for themselves.

In a country with an insane amount of medical professionals, failing to curb the ourbreak, will bring only shame to the nation.
~Vibhor Tyagi (Techie at Engineer.AI)
 
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blr_p

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Blockchain Tracker

~Vibhor Tyagi (Techie at Engineer.AI)
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Although things are being looked into with severity, there is almost no reason to believe that the minuscule infection rate of 1% (which India currently holds) cant get any much worse. I've seen the news reports for these 'testing' facilities, but have not been clarified about the amenities they provide - I don't think anybody has, for the fear of contracting the disease for themselves.

In a country with an insane amount of medical professionals, failing to curb the ourbreak, will bring only shame to the nation.
~Vibhor Tyagi (Techie at Engineer.AI)
I don't know of any issues with the quality of testing. They double check samples in Pune as well.

The issue is the number of test done. The govt isn't being more aggressive here.

There could be reasons.

Control the flow of information
Control the quality of the test. A test not following procedure might produce false information though i think private hospitals exist because they deliver a service or nobody would prefer them.
We don't have enough test kits to go around. We don't have rapid test kits available as yet. An article reporting we are the 5th country in the world to sequence the genome of this virus suggested that such information was necessary to make rapid test kits. The drive-in variety being done in S.Korea & UK presently.

But it would appear this is not the reason according to what the ICMR doctor says in this article


Dr R R Gangakhedkar, the chief epidemiologist at ICMR, said only those with symptoms of Covid-19 were being tested as present. "Everyone with flu symptoms doesn't need to get tested because the spread of the disease is limited at present. Even among those with travel history or possible contact with an infected individual, testing is advised only if he or she has symptoms of Covid-19. This is because if the test is conducted in asymptomatic individual the viral load is likely to be less and that may result in false negative results. Such individual may get a false sense of security and continue to spread the disease," he said. ICMR scientists said the advisory on testing may be changed if there is enough evidence of Covid-19 reaching stage III.
So tests only increase if we're at stage 3 otherwise not ? i don't get the rationale here ??

In any case the reason not to involve private labs seems to be the govt labs are presently under utilised.

In the teleconference with the SAARC leaders on Sunday, Modi was proudly saying we went from one test facility to 60 in two months.

If they keep that pace up then two months from now there will be more presumably.
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Good summary. He's done his homework and i noticed the medium article i posted here a week back in there as well :)
 
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Engineer.AI

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Today, West Bengal reported its first case of the first coronavirus infected. This news comes as fears of the disease creeping in from Bangladesh increases.

I am in agreement with you that the government is not as aggressive as they should be, but compared to what the response of other countries has been, India seems way more equipped (shocking, I know! lol)
~Vibhor Tyagi (Techie at Engineer.AI)
 

Kilroyquasar

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In any case the reason not to involve private labs seems to be the govt labs are presently under utilised.

In the teleconference with the SAARC leaders on Sunday, Modi was proudly saying we went from one test facility to 60 in two months.
now 2 rapid-testing labs & 49 additional testing facilities are to come up by the end of this week (right now we have 72 operational).

furthermore, many pvt testing labs are said to have pitched in with the proposal that they'd conduct the tests for free (when testing in pvt labs could cost anything from 9k-12k acc. to an estimate; costs 5k to the govt. per test OTOH). at the least the govt. could perhaps subsidise them for the pvt centres.
 

adder

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Russia is building a chinese style make shift hospital, it will take them about a month.

We should do too, stop all foreign flights, Dont understand why we still have flights coming from middle east. Close all inter state borders, only allow cargo movement and trucks.
 

blr_p

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now 2 rapid-testing labs & 49 additional testing facilities are to come up by the end of this week (right now we have 72 operational).

furthermore, many pvt testing labs are said to have pitched in with the proposal that they'd conduct the tests for free (when testing in pvt labs could cost anything from 9k-12k acc. to an estimate; costs 5k to the govt. per test OTOH). at the least the govt. could perhaps subsidise them for the pvt centres.
Couple of interviews to listen to that give us better understanding.


and the interview with the former IMA director, KK aggarwal was very good.

The private sector isn't involved with testing as yet. Talks are on and will have to be involved if we are to win.

The ICMR does not think we will have a nation wide outbreak. They expect community spread but it will be limited to clusters in the country.

They are doing sentinel testing. So people with H1N1 and acute respiratory illness are being randomly tested.

50 labs across the country test 10 so 500 random tests across the country. They don't find anything yet so we're still at stage 2

Once community spread becomes more prevalent they will step up testing. They can do 6,000 per day.

IE's podcast 3 things does a great job explaining things. Highly recommended
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Russia is building a chinese style make shift hospital, it will take them about a month.

We should do too, stop all foreign flights, Dont understand why we still have flights coming from middle east. Close all inter state borders, only allow cargo movement and trucks.
My friends wife & son were to return from the UK on the 20th. India blocked flights from London but they allow transit flights from the Gulf. So they should just be able to get back with Emirates.

They are going to be guests of the govt for 14 days after :D
 
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dissel

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Today, West Bengal reported its first case of the first coronavirus infected.
This is an epic....The Guy (18 Years Old) - The Patient Zero is a Student of Oxford University who attain a Party at England where he dances with his Girl Friend who is COVID-19 positive, Once it came into Light Oxford University Immediately contacted his parents at home which is Kolkata where his Father is well established Chield Specialist Doctor and The Mother is Top-Rated Government Official with very high influential power in the Govt Administration...Once this Sons Of .....THEM Landed Kolkata Airport, he bypass the test by using his Mother's Administrative Power where Airport Authority Strictly advised him To Go to Beleghata ID Hospital (Specialize for all this kind of Diseases & only destination for cure), instead, he goes his Luxurious Tower Apartment at Pancho Sior surrounded with posh Housing Complex / Tower....and spend the nights with his highly educated Parents....This is Sunday 15/03.

Come Monday 16/03 he start roaming the whole day Kolkata City with his Mother and go to South City Mall (Another posh mall) and spend the evening there.

On Tuesday 17/03 he fills sick and instead of going to the above said Hospital this time he uses his father credential and go to M.R Bangur Hospital (very important hospital)...once they see him and immediately refer him to admit the very first hospital i,e Beleghata ID, But he decided to go back home to that housing complex / Tower.

For these two days, his influential mother go to her office which is Writers Building and Nabano Buildings (CM Office) where the entire West Bengal State Government runs from....And do the Closed Door meetings etc etc....maybe some of the meetings about how to tackle COVID-19 who knows.

On Wednesday 18/03 - Finally, he gave up due to deteriorating conditions and decided to go to the Beleghata ID Hospital and Admit himself along with his Both Parents + 2 Drivers + Maids, etc etc <--- All tested positive.

So here are 3 things to note (1) Highly Educated, Individual learning at Oxford University (2) Highly Educated Doctor Father with Money (3) Highly Educated - Highly Influenced Mother with Money.....This trio affected a large housing Comunity + Probably A Whole City + A whole Major Hospital which has nothing to do with this kind of treatment + two administrative offices that actually run the entire WB state.

After this came into light CM get Angry and the public lost their head in anger....The next appropriate steps will be to cancel his father's doctor's license and sack the mother from her post.
 
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adder

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My friends wife & son were to return from the UK on the 20th. India blocked flights from London but they allow transit flights from the Gulf. So they should just be able to get back with Emirates.

They are going to be guests of the govt for 14 days after :D
Those who dont have symptoms are instructed to self quarantine, I don't think there is a mandatory quarantine in a government facility unless they come from a hotspot or show symptoms on arrival. Those people arriving can have the virus in them and show no symptoms and spread it.
You see daily reports of people escaping quarantine.
They should criminalize it.
 

blr_p

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Those who dont have symptoms are instructed to self quarantine, I don't think there is a mandatory quarantine in a government facility unless they come from a hotspot or show symptoms on arrival. Those people arriving can have the virus in them and show no symptoms and spread it.
You see daily reports of people escaping quarantine.
They should criminalize it.
They were in Italy before they went to the UK. They went to the UK because the govt here insisted anyone returning from Italy should show a certificate of fitness from an Italian doctor.

Problem ? Italian doctors were so over stretched they refuse to even see any one that did not have symptoms.

So Indians in Italy could not return to India.

My friend was hoping it would be self quarantine but you have to declare to immigration where you have been and there is an Italian stamp on their passport.

Italy means they quarantine you. Which is good. Otherwise they'd have to wear masks at home for two weeks to prevent infecting others in the house and follow precautions like cleaning everything touched.
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So here are 3 things to note (1) Highly Educated, Individual learning at Oxford University (2) Highly Educated Doctor Father with Money (3) Highly Educated - Highly Influenced Mother with Money.....This trio affected a large housing Comunity + Probably A Whole City + A whole Major Hospital which has nothing to do with this kind of treatment + two administrative offices that actually run the entire WB state.

After this came into light CM get Angry and the public lost their head in anger....The next appropriate steps will be to cancel his father's doctor's license and sack the mother from her post.
If we continue to commit mistakes like these we will lose the game :bawling:

Everybody is responsible here. Govt, doctors AND CITIZENS !!!

ALL FOR ONE AND ONE FOR ALL !!


The death of Siddiq has left several questions unanswered including indications of procedural lapses that let a heavily symptomatic patient leave one medical facility, go to Hyderabad and then be sent back in a day.

Even with routine Medical treatment, allegations of Medical Negligence have been a knee jerk reaction to any unfortunate treatment outcome. This blame game without any basic inquiry by experts, not only demoralizes those working in difficult circumstances, but diverts from root cause analysis to improve.
Massive rise in these allegations over last two decades have led to Defensive Medicine, where focus of Doctors inadvertently shifts away from providing critical treatment, to avoid becoming a punching bag when recovery is not as expected. This is a huge concern even if the added treatment costs when Doctors “play safe” are ignored. Such a scenario has to be avoided all the more given the current Public Health Crisis.
 
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Kilroyquasar

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Dont understand why we still have flights coming from middle east
now report is that 26k suspected infected from iran might be flown in.

50 labs across the country test 10 so 500 random tests across the country. They don't find anything yet so we're still at stage 2
that was one of the prime reasons they didnt go about testing any & everybody. even i returned from europe about a week back but other than the mandatory declaration-form & temp.-scanning, nothing else was done. temp.-scanning wasn't even done at Mumbai; only at delhi airport. this, probably because i returned from denmark (though it had more than 500 cases at the time, no casualty though).

ALL FOR ONE AND ONE FOR ALL !!
this first casualty was forcibly removed from the hospital as per initial reports. a localiite informed me all's not so simple as well; the 'compensation-act' was also at play. later 4 suspects with travel-history to dubai threatened & turned away health officials who came visiting their place in the same state (bhatkal) citing religious reason. 11 suspects returning from dubai also fled a Mumbai hospital citing the same. and now telangana has a spike thanks to a group that came on a religious 'preaching' tour to the state from indonesia. clearly we're being very lenient as well in some quarters.

They should criminalize it.
IPC has provisions for it they say, but not enforced. only UP has become the first state to enforce criminalisation, but it still pales in comparison to what italy, korea, singapore etc are charging the irresponsible with.
 

blr_p

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now report is that 26k suspected infected from iran might be flown in.
Can you post the link ?


Says 1.2k there

that was one of the prime reasons they didnt go about testing any & everybody. even i returned from europe about a week back but other than the mandatory declaration-form & temp.-scanning, nothing else was done. temp.-scanning wasn't even done at Mumbai; only at delhi airport. this, probably because i returned from denmark (though it had more than 500 cases at the time, no casualty though).
I thought all airports were scanning or at least that's what the ministry has claimed. Over ten lakhs now

this first casualty was forcibly removed from the hospital as per initial reports. a localiite informed me all's not so simple as well; the 'compensation-act' was also at play. later 4 suspects with travel-history to dubai threatened & turned away health officials who came visiting their place in the same state (bhatkal) citing religious reason. 11 suspects returning from dubai also fled a Mumbai hospital citing the same. and now telangana has a spike thanks to a group that came on a religious 'preaching' tour to the state from indonesia. clearly we're being very lenient as well in some quarters.
Govt has to work with religious figures. They are not doing this.

Maybe these people will not cooperate. Because it means they have to tell their people to avoid places of worship. Separates them from their flock.

IPC has provisions for it they say, but not enforced. only UP has become the first state to enforce criminalisation, but it still pales in comparison to what italy, korea, singapore etc are charging the irresponsible with.
The Epidemic Disease Act of 1897 has to be invoked at the state level. Thought it was

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Another good interview this time with notable virologist Gagandeep Kang.

She's quite hopeful of a vaccine coming out sooner than expected.
 
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Kilroyquasar

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Can you post the link ?
sorry, not iran, but from gulf:

Mumbai prepares to quarantine 26k Indians coming from Gulf

[BTW, all's not what it seems to be. now dont know to what extent is this true, but as per an acquaintance who has some contacts who were involved in the evacuation-process of Indians from china & later iran, told me that India was royally blackmailed in the process! said that we were literally blackmailed & forced to give a lot of medical supplies to china (despite our repeatedly emphasising that we ourselves have limited supplies and would require them for our own use if and when covid reaches India) in order to evacuate our last batch of Indians out of china who had contacted the Indian embassy and the consulates late (some ~60-80 people; this was around 2-5 days after the pakistani students going online ranting against their govt & praising the GoI had gone viral). later iran too took cue from this & asked us for supplies & lab-facilities in order to allow the evacuation. if you recall the reports & some tweets of how ham-handed & arrogant was iran's behaviour initially and how suddenly it changed after it was given what it had asked for, you'd get a hint. and all this happened in both the countries only with India, no other nation, not UK germany france japan etc, whose citizens too were stuck in china & who had ample medical supplies for 'giveaway'! if true, hope India returns the 'favour' in kind to both of them, atleast to iran (a lot of insiders have always said and maintained that iranians are an extremely untrustworthy lot! they've rarely stood by India int'lly anyway, despite India's unprecedented support to them in the face of US-sanctions on the country), after the world's out of this chinese-mess! hope we've learned our *another* lesson here. other countries will also have observed what happened. we can't let this become a precedent to get blackmailed endlessly by every tom dick & harry!
nevertheless, right now some around 240-270 Indians are still stranded in iran because they're all said to be covid-positive & i think iran has also assured India of their tests & treatment (now after they got what they wanted). as of now GoI has been providing for their medical help, food, accommodation, etc. through our embassy in tehran & hired local help from our money.
anyway, this has some hints as to what transpired & the aforementioned reg. our last china-trip - https://bit.ly/2we9EJJ]

I thought all airports were scanning or at least that's what the ministry has claimed. Over ten lakhs now
just a few days before flying in even i had seen pics of long 5-6 hrs of queue before exit-immigration at Mumbai airport. but that was before the onset of the 'lockdown'. in one of my flights (AI) in the seat just ahead of me was a middle-eastern girl (looked some model-type) with cold & runny nose & coughing quite a lot initially, with stares from the nearby pax, & was being served hot water by the AI staff. i was getting irritated & thought to ask her to cover her mouth with something, but a little bit after taking off her ailment subsided & she was also given a mask. could've been delhi-air effect probably.

Maybe these people will not cooperate. Because it means they have to tell their people to avoid places of worship. Separates them from their flock.
really no use. even now the ulemas are adamant & saying mosques wouldn't be closed; while the bombay HC has asked the govt. of Maharashtra that why masses are still on in churches (earlier by a decree the GoM had gotten major temples shut with the assistance of their boards/trusts, but remarked that churches would remain open until asked to close, while mosques shall remain functional. the anjumans in some mosques have been shifted online, but rest all functions are being organised as-is). while an acquaintance informed me that some smaller temple trusts too are being adamant seeing all this, in closing down their temples, despite his plea to them. so he has turned to request the devotees now to forego their visits for a month.

also, telangana has now seen a spike in positive cases, thanks to allowing & entertaining a group of religious preachers in the state from indonesia! if the admin itself is being high-handed & acting mindless, then...so, no need to placate the unreasonable. the state should also know and realise when its time to wield and put to good use the 'dand'.

The Epidemic Disease Act of 1897 has to be invoked at the state level. Thought it was
only UP has invoked it. again, what i wrote in the last line above ^^. the criminalisation law it implemented recently was under Section 3 of the same act.
(BTW that agra techie wife case toi report is not entirely true. some botched reporting it was.)

She's quite hopeful of a vaccine coming out sooner than expected.
ICMR had been giving a timeframe of 17-18 months earlier. perhaps sooner now. some medicines too are said to be in their 3rd phase of trials. haven't heard or read about them beyond that.
 
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blr_p

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sorry, not iran, but from gulf:

Mumbai prepares to quarantine 26k Indians coming from Gulf
I see, that is quite a few people. Says mostly blue collar so i guess they have no work.

BTW, all's not what it seems to be. now dont know to what extent is this true, but as per an acquaintance who has some contacts who were involved in the evacuation-process of Indians from china & later iran, told me that India was royally blackmailed in the process! said that we were literally blackmailed & forced to give a lot of medical supplies to china (despite our repeatedly emphasising that we ourselves have limited supplies and would require them for our own use if and when covid reaches India) in order to evacuate our last batch of Indians out of china who had contacted the Indian embassy and the consulates late (some ~60-80 people; this was around 2-5 days after the pakistani students going online ranting against their govt & praising the GoI had gone viral). later iran too took cue from this & asked us for supplies & lab-facilities in order to allow the evacuation. if you recall the reports & some tweets of how ham-handed & arrogant was iran's behaviour initially and how suddenly it changed after it was given what it had asked for, you'd get a hint.
Both these countries were in dire straits. Who else could offer them supplies in a number that mattered ? if they had to resort to black mail its only an indication of how bad things were for them. For China to do this is a serious loss of face. It's in effect begging at gun point. Think about that.

Our peak is yet to come. The Americans expect to peak in May which means ours will come later. So in this time we can restock.

and all this happened in both the countries only with India, no other nation, not UK germany france japan etc, whose citizens too were stuck in china & who had ample medical supplies for 'giveaway'! if true, hope India returns the 'favour' in kind to both of them, atleast to iran (a lot of insiders have always said and maintained that iranians are an extremely untrustworthy lot! they've rarely stood by India int'lly anyway, despite India's unprecedented support to them in the face of US-sanctions on the country), after the world's out of this chinese-mess! hope we've learned our *another* lesson here. other countries will also have observed what happened. we can't let this become a precedent to get blackmailed endlessly by every tom dick & harry!
What support has India given to Iran in the face of US sanctions. The recent ones ? we've cut our oil imports from them to zero.

They felt royally let down. And one of their diplomats did mention that India is not as strong as it thinks. Whatever oil they were selling to us during the Obama era was bought in Rupees. They would then have to use that to buy from India so from their pov, they've been screwed by us for a long time now.

If people with AIDS are alive today its because of India. The majority of people that have AIDS is in Africa. We've going to have to ramp up production to service that entire continent.

I was critical of UK's policy of herd immunity. They would let people get infected so they would build up immunity. Developing countries in South America, Africa & Asia will have no choice but to go with herd immunity.

nevertheless, right now some around 240-270 Indians are still stranded in iran because they're all said to be covid-positive & i think iran has also assured India of their tests & treatment (now after they got what they wanted). as of now GoI has been providing for their medical help, food, accommodation, etc. through our embassy in tehran & hired local help from our money.
anyway, this has some hints as to what transpired & the aforementioned reg. our last china-trip - https://bit.ly/2we9EJJ]
I can imagine there is an element of truth to what you've said here.
 

6pack

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Mumbai city went in lock down mode. All shops shut down and only essential shops like food and medical are open now. Maharashtra govt told Mumbai, Pune and Nagpur to shut down till March 31st. All private offices to close if people cannot work from home. Glad to see people are taking it seriously and have shut shop. In my area even vegetable and fruit vendors all closed and went home. They will be open only from morning 9:30 am to 5 pm it seems.