Corona virus


red dragon

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If India is doing good, it's really great. Here in Europe we are struggling. But please don't take it lightly, even with relatively low mortality, this virus is able to wipe out a significant population with it's extremely rapid spread.
I didn't want to spread fear or undermine Indian government's efforts.
I was a part of Indian health system for 10 years. It is not prepared for a SARS epidemic. Italy's failure is not a medical one, but a social failure.
 

Chaos

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If India is doing good, it's really great. Here in Europe we are struggling. But please don't take it lightly, even with relatively low mortality, this virus is able to wipe out a significant population with it's extremely rapid spread.
I didn't want to spread fear or undermine Indian government's efforts.
I was a part of Indian health system for 10 years. It is not prepared for a SARS epidemic. Italy's failure is not a medical one, but a social failure.
India isn't testing enough - that is why the numbers look good. If they tested more, the numbers would be far higher. I am extremely skeptical of the numbers being put forward by the government. No testing, no cases.

Unless you test enough, there is no way to know if community spread has started or not. So far the attitude of the govt and central bodies seems to be to downplay testing as much as possible.
 
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red dragon

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<%,
India isn't testing enough - that is why the numbers look good. If they tested more, the numbers would be far higher. I am extremely skeptical of the numbers being put forward by the government. No testing, no cases.

Unless you test enough, there is no way to know if community spread has started or not. So far the attitude of the govt and central bodies seems to be to downplay testing as much as possible.
Absolutely. ICMR is notorious for incomplete/ inadequate data even under normal circumstances.
 

blr_p

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If India is doing good, it's really great. Here in Europe we are struggling. But please don't take it lightly, even with relatively low mortality, this virus is able to wipe out a significant population with it's extremely rapid spread.
I didn't want to spread fear or undermine Indian government's efforts.
I was a part of Indian health system for 10 years. It is not prepared for a SARS epidemic. Italy's failure is not a medical one, but a social failure.
I don't know how "good" India is doing. We will know in a few months.

For now steps have been taken to drag things out. It is expected we will have clusters spring up in the country and the effort will be to quarantine them from the rest.

The govt is not taking this lightly. Getting people to cooperate will be key.

The spike in cases presently is from people that were abroad returning in droves. Pilgrims from Iran. Blue collar workers from the gulf etc.

This is a difficult problem to handle. If the actions of citizens matter at a country level then how does one get rid of this thing. Because unless countries and this means each country stamps it out then it can spring back again from other countries. SARS was relatively contained to East Asia. SARS also was only infectious when people became symptomatic.

China could be re-infected by a strain that was not made in China and the cycle begins again.

What is the endgame here. In time this becomes like the cold and nobody notices it ?

That virolgist i linked to in the other thread said that 50% of the country already had been exposed to swine flu. H1N1. That is half a billion people.

Estimates from testing show that from the antibody response people in this country are showing.

About 300 died last March from it. The number varies per month. Had linked to the ministry's report earlier.
 
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red dragon

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I have read somewhere that vaccines we received in childhood may offer some protection amongst Indians.
And some form of cure in terms of antiviral will emerge from our already vast antivirals developed from 2008 onwards. A completely new anti viral is unlikely.
I'm worried sick about my family. Both me and my wife have already come to contact to more than hundreds in our line of work traveling in Czech Republic, Slovakia,Poland etc. Though we have tested negative twice already, we may turn positive anyday despite every piece of protective gear. We may even have to go to Germany on 3rd April. Even hardened epidemiologists with years of work at WHO are scared to go there. But if called upon, we must go.
BTW we are still not 100% sure how this ****ing virus spread. I have Ebola experience, it was horrifying but we were certain of few things. This ****er is still an enigma.
One good thing happened, after working for more than 10 years with WHO, we have enough stories for our grandchildren ( if we remain alive)
There's a misconception about doctors at WHO, that we don't work hard enough.
Sure, we have lots of flexibility in working hours, tax free income at certain periods, but when shit happens, we do work like maniacs. Almost army like without guns and stuff of course. It's completely crazy out here. Thinking of starting a YouTube channel with shitty unedited mobile camera videos.
 
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blr_p

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I'm worried sick about my family. Both me and my wife have already come to contact to more than hundreds in our line of work traveling in Czech Republic, Slovakia,Poland etc. Though we have tested negative twice already, we may turn positive anyday despite every piece of protective gear. We may even have to go to Germany on 3rd April. Even hardened epidemiologists with years of work at WHO are scared to go there. But if called upon, we must go.
From what i've seen of Poland, Romania etc, these countries have taken this crisis seriously. Polish Health minister telling people this not a time for enjoying & partying is a good message. But they have to crack down in the churches. I saw people drinking from the same glass in a video of a outdoors church mass in Romania and that just has to stop.

The polish Army chief getting infected when on a trip to Germany recently showed there was community spread in Germany.

So I've been looking for evidence of people from neighbouring countries (Nepal, Banglas, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives) stating they contracted the disease in India or Indians taking the disease to those countries and testing positive but nothing has shown up yet. Had there been cases like that it would mean our disease surveillance network is compromised but fortunately that is not the case to date. All of the nationals of these countries contracted it from abroad just like people returning to India and testing positive.

I guess the only way is to keep your guard up. Dr. Li said he got careless when he removed his face mask to talk to an 81 yr old asymptomatic patient.

BTW we are still not 100% sure how this ****ing virus spread. I have Ebola experience, it was horrifying but we were certain of few things. This ****er is still an enigma.
One good thing happened, after working for more than 10 years with WHO, we have enough stories for our grandchildren ( if we remain alive)
The thing that i do not understand yet is the concept of herd immunity. How does it work with this virus ?

If you contract it then recover. Do you have any immunity ?

I hear of people getting re-infected. I don't know if its from some one else again like the first time or whether its a relapse. What is the meaning of relapse. If you defeated it the first time then why couldn't you do it the next time.

Barely three months in we are still guessing.

There's a misconception about doctors at WHO, that we don't work hard enough.
Sure, we have lots of flexibility in working hours, tax free income at certain periods, but when shit happens, we do work like maniacs. Almost army like without guns and stuff of course. It's completely crazy out here. Thinking of starting a YouTube channel with shitty unedited mobile camera videos.
Ah, i forgot you worked for the WHO. As you know the WHO is getting a beating these days from many quarters.

The biggest slam is why did the WHO wait until March to declare this a pandemic ?

There is no doubt in my mind who the front line soldiers are in this fight. It ain't the boys in uniform. It's the doctors & nurses doing crazy hours every where in the world.

When the health workers returned home from Wuhan, there was a long line of soldiers saluting them on the way back to the bus or plane. Guard of honour.

There are many stories. Very sad ones and also happy ones.

Thinking of starting a YouTube channel with shitty unedited mobile camera videos.
Do it. Do it. DO IT! :D
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India isn't testing enough - that is why the numbers look good. If they tested more, the numbers would be far higher. I am extremely skeptical of the numbers being put forward by the government. No testing, no cases.

Unless you test enough, there is no way to know if community spread has started or not. So far the attitude of the govt and central bodies seems to be to downplay testing as much as possible.
Yes and the reason is the cost of the testing kit. From what i can figure. The Roche kit from Germany costs 3,20,000 for 100 tests. So that's Rs.3200 per test. You have to do more than one test. That means each patient tested works out to close to Rs.10k. There is a further complication. Once you open the kit you have to finish the 100 tests in like 3 days otherwise it expires. So best bang for the buck is a mass test program like Germany & S.Korea are doing. We could not do it and then stop because we ran out of kits.

This is why we made our own. It's why the Americans rolled their own as well. But the Americans faced a snag because one key ingredient for their kit was in short supply. This resulted in a delay in making the test kits of over a month. Let's hope we don't face the same problem.

Trump's administration is facing flak because they rejected the already available test kit from the WHO. Oh! what what was the problem with it that you have to make you own at a time like this. The only answer i can think of is cost. IPR & profit for domestic companies could be another.
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Here in Europe we are struggling.
Any truth to this ?

 
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swatkats

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When the government says we've laid ground for the next 3 months Indirectly dolling out freebies under BPL schemes and Free ATM withdrawals.

I presume the 21 day lock-down will extend to 2 months.
 
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red dragon

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Regarding kit test results, AFAIK almost every kit has this problem. It's basically nuclear amplification, real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. With low viral load some kit will fail. I didn't know about that particular incident @ Praha, but it's possibly true.
But they can always send us samples in case of doubt ( it takes around 45- 75 minutes for batch of 60-100)
Regarding reinfection, it's possibly the false negative result with very low viral load rather than reinfection. But I may be completely wrong.
Herd immunity is something when most people in a community have effective antibody in their system against a particular pathogen, so that the pathogen doesn't get a suitable host after infecting few. Theoretically it's very effective against virus.
BUT for this ****ing virus at least 60% population has to be infected. It's a risky approach and Dutch government may have to pay a big price. But they do have some logic too.
As far as I have seen, some churches in Europe are far worse than Hindu/ Muslim extremists.
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When the government says we've laid ground for the next 3 months Indirectly dolling out freebies under BPL schemes and Free ATM withdrawals.

I presume the 21 day lock-down will extend to 2 months.
Highly unlikely, 2 months will completely destroy the economy. It will kill more people than the virus itself.
Even an average middle class Western European struggles with extra expenditure of 250 EUR a month (200 USD for Americans)
More than 80% will loose jobs if the lockdown goes beyond 4 weeks.
Every country will struggle beyond a month. It will be far worse than all world wars combined.
 
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blr_p

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When the government says we've laid ground for the next 3 months Indirectly dolling out freebies under BPL schemes and Free ATM withdrawals.

I presume the 21 day lock-down will extend to 2 months.
It depends on how the tests go. How far away we are from a peak. If that comes by Apr 15 they can loosen a little otherwise it will remain as is. Cities in China are slowly allowing their people back to work but they have to wear masks. Even a scarf is ok but have to wear something. This helps curb spread a great deal. They should do that here then we will recover sooner. I heard a minister say India can put out 1.5 cr surgical masks a day. Build that supply and make it mandatory to wear one for a couple of months at least.

The govt has mentioned 3 months as they expect some sort of resolution within this time period.
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Regarding kit test results, AFAIK almost every kit has this problem. It's basically nuclear amplification, real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. With low viral load some kit will fail. I didn't know about that particular incident @ Praha, but it's possibly true.
But they can always send us samples in case of doubt ( it takes around 45- 75 minutes for batch of 60-100)
I'm reading about the probabilities of these tests and its not simple. Ideal would be antigen tests but those must be even more expensive

Very difficult to fight this battle without proper tools.

Regarding reinfection, it's possibly the false negative result with very low viral load rather than reinfection. But I may be completely wrong.
You mean false positive ? they're no longer infected but the test says they are because they still have a low viral load. That kit must have good sensitivity then.

A false negative would show they were negative not positive

Because i hear of some cases where the test is refused unless the person becomes more sick. Ridiculous but that article clued me in that the test might not be sensitive enough to detect in the early stages and produce a false negative.

Herd immunity is something when most people in a community have effective antibody in their system against a particular pathogen, so that the pathogen doesn't get a suitable host after infecting few. Theoretically it's very effective against virus.
People who have recovered will have built immunity and can be used for the basis of a vaccine.

BUT for this ****ing virus at least 60% population has to be infected. It's a risky approach and Dutch government may have to pay a big price. But they do have some logic too.
Risky and crazy but consider it could become the default way of dealing with this virus for a number of developing countries.

Mild infection can be treated with OTC drugs if the person is healthy. They will send them home for self quarantine.
 
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red dragon

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Making vaccine from human serum seems the most logical thing. But it's very expensive and extremely difficult (if not impossible) during outbreak.
A vaccine is not intravenous immunoglobulin.
I meant false negative i.e kit showing negative, where the patient is positive.
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Have you seen anyone with conjunctivitis ( pink eye) recently? We just had a message from HQ that Corona can cause conjunctivitis and anosmia too!! We have ****ed up big time
 
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blr_p

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Making vaccine from human serum seems the most logical thing. But it's very expensive and extremely difficult (if not impossible) during outbreak.
A vaccine is not intravenous immunoglobulin.
I don't mean directly from human serum.

Nature has come up with a way to combat this virus. All we need to do is understand how it targets this virus. It has discovered the weak spots.

Then make a vaccine that does that and possibly more. This is going to be a global effort.


Gagandeep Kang said this was the first time she felt optimistic that a working vaccine would come out and soon.

Development in therapeutics will come first. Effective treatments if not cures as yet.


I meant false negative i.e kit showing negative, where the patient is positive.
Oh! the test after 14 days says negative.

Then another test is done presumably some days later and it shows up as positive.

Is that what you mean ?

Have you seen anyone with conjunctivitis ( pink eye) recently? We just had a message from HQ that Corona can cause conjunctivitis and anosmia too!! We have ****ed up big time
No, but i've heard people should cover their eyes as it can be contracted that way. If you have an eye condition already that might increase chances of contracting it.

Though i would think this is something only doctors and health workers treating covid patients have to worry about as they are in close proximity to them.

Dr. Li was an opthamologist, maybe he left some notes.
 
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swatkats

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Highly unlikely, 2 months will completely destroy the economy. It will kill more people than the virus itself.
Even an average middle class Western European struggles with extra expenditure of 250 EUR a month (200 USD for Americans)
More than 80% will loose jobs if the lockdown goes beyond 4 weeks.
Every country will struggle beyond a month. It will be far worse than all world wars combined.
Lives matter more than the economy, I understand there will be hungry deaths.

China has gone for more than 2 months lock down until April 8th.
 

red dragon

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China's lockdown was different. India can not afford that. A nationwide lockdown IS NOT a cure to any endemic.
I read up about India's work towards a vaccine, if you know any technicalities about how vaccine against virus works, you shouldn't feel anything specially good about it. There is nothing new to it.
Live attenuated is the ideal one, but ain't gonna come.
Please read up about basics of vaccination before jumping into conclusions.
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Lives matter more than the economy, I understand there will be hungry deaths.

China has gone for more than 2 months lock down until April 8th.
Life and economy are intertwined. Lives cannot be saved with a fragile economy.
Modi is talking to AYUSH...Basically he is anticipating a complete breakdown and chaos in the health system.
How can a homeopath treat a bad pneumonia or ARDS symptomatically is beyond me. They have never seen a ventilator or even a bipap!! They are not trained to use a stethoscope properly.
This was Modi's master stroke!!
Lockdown....kill patients with the virus....kill people without food...kill doctors without PPE...bring in the AYUSH people....kill whatever is left with absurd medicines and crazy songs. Beautiful plan.
 
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adder

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DRDO is giving its design and tech know how to manufacture N99 (yes) masks, PPE and ventilators. Car makers in India which have tooling to create molds and other parts will start churning out ventilators with various government firms open sourcing the design, so the car manufactures in india can use their vast oem supplier base to quickly start manufacturing components plastic, rubber, silicone and metal parts for thousands of ventilators in the next few weeks.

I just went to the milk store to buy milk since none of the online delivery work. I wore a 3m N95 mask which has long expired that I bought for my various diy projects, I was gasping for air with its tight seal. N99 should be even worse in this regard. I cannot imagine how the health care workers in these hospitals wear them for their entire shift, huge respect to them.

Only china has enough N95 masks and tyvek PPE for even a street sweeper, this is what happens when you let one country supply the entire world.

Once this pandemic wave sweeps over, I hope we start manufacturing everything in India including the raw materials. Dont care if it costs more.

fyi, expiry in the N95 mask is for the rubber band and glue holding the rubber and a comfort sponge near nose which in my case had disintegrated, I used a 3m micro porus tape in place of the sponge, to make it a bit for comfortable.
 

blr_p

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Tweet went missing but the point is valid

How effective can a lock down be if there are leaks ?

More in some places than others i guess

Clusters will form which will have to be quarantined from the rest.

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DRDO is giving its design and tech know how to manufacture N99 (yes) masks, PPE and ventilators. Car makers in India which have tooling to create molds and other parts will start churning out ventilators with various government firms open sourcing the design, so the car manufactures in india can use their vast oem supplier base to quickly start manufacturing components plastic, rubber, silicone and metal parts for thousands of ventilators in the next few weeks.
Good stuff

I just went to the milk store to buy milk since none of the online delivery work. I wore a 3m N95 mask which has long expired that I bought for my various diy projects, I was gasping for air with its tight seal. N99 should be even worse in this regard. I cannot imagine how the health care workers in these hospitals wear them for their entire shift, huge respect to them.

fyi, expiry in the N95 mask is for the rubber band and glue holding the rubber and a comfort sponge near nose which in my case had disintegrated, I used a 3m micro porus tape in place of the sponge, to make it a bit for comfortable.
How do you maintain the mask between uses ? is this supposed to be a use and throw one time mask or can you spray some 70%+ alcohol on it to disinfect it. Will the alcohol affect the glue. Maybe hydrogen peroxide will be better in that case.

I only managed to find a 3M N90 dust mask . I know what you mean by difficulty breathing.

I intend to use disposable surgical masks with that metal strip for the nose and discard after coming back.

Only china has enough N95 masks and tyvek PPE for even a street sweeper, this is what happens when you let one country supply the entire world.

Once this pandemic wave sweeps over, I hope we start manufacturing everything in India including the raw materials. Dont care if it costs more.
Sentiment is quite high for this right now.

But what happens when its over. Do we start counting pennies again.

Steve Bannon has a saying for this sort of behaviour

The people that know the cost of everything and the value of nothing !
 
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red dragon

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N99 mask is not new. It has 3 varieties ( valveless, single valve, dual valve)
Both N95 and 99 are extremely uncomfortable for more than 30 minutes. If you're comfortable, you are wearing it wrong.
We were issued all 3 plus some used in toxic gas leaks. I personally can't wear a single one for more than 15-20 minutes continuously.
Under normal circumstances, you are not supposed to use them beyond 3/4 days. But now things are different. Just keep it under direct sunlight for 30 minutes or so. Spraying alcohol is another option, but it may loosen the glue.
Since we are still not sure about exact mode of transmission, healthcare professionals need full hazmat suite including those big ass eye protectors used in chemical spill.
It takes more than 10 minutes to put them on correctly, tie every zip etc.
Even with everything, people are getting infected.
My wife is super paranoid about safety suite, she even uses those polythene like undersocks, undergloves things, still got infected. We couldn't find a single breech with UV screening.
 

adder

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I read a test that If you use alchol or mild detergent, it significantly decreases the efficiency of the mask which is not what we want. Hydrogen peroxide is a new method but there is no data about what effect it has on the mask, they use a high pressure mist of hydrogen peroxide and hang as many masks in the chamber or room.

I think the best solution is to leave it in sunlight, but they will degrade the elastic rubber faster and also the glue which holds it.

One would need a powerfull uv, to have the same effect.


How do you maintain the mask between uses ? is this supposed to be a use and throw one time mask or can you spray some 70%+ alcohol on it to disinfect it. Will the alcohol affect the glue. Maybe hydrogen peroxide will be better in that case.

I only managed to find a 3M N90 dust mask . I know what you mean by difficulty breathing.

I intend to use disposable surgical masks with that metal strip for the nose and discard after coming back.
I have couple of n95 masks all expired, so for I have made only three masks useable because of the sponge of all the masks have disintegrated, its takes a couple of minutes for me to clean the sponge particles and make it ready, these masks where bought in 2014. Hopefully they start resuming milk delivery, thats the only reason to go to store.

So they say the virus dont stay alive for long on various surfaces, so If I hang the masks to dry and use them after a few days, the virus would be dead is my theory. If i am forced to stand in queue daily, then I will be in trouble. I may use the spare UV lamps from the water purifers I have to sterlize them.
I dont have those normal surgical masks and most out there in the market now are knock off or made with zero sterilization.

Most importantly I do not enter store with more then 2 people in Queue,

Sentiment is quite high for this right now.

But what happens when its over. Do we start counting pennies again.

Steve Bannon has a saying for this sort of behaviour

The people that know the cost of everything and the value of nothing !
In the US atleast they will put some stupendous tariffs to force manufactures to get jobs back to usa.

In India all those so called make in india companies, who mostly just rebadge or at best assemble or package them in India will be shown the door.

Once we scale up from A to Z of manufacturing from raw material all the way to finished products, I see no reason why we cannot match chinese prices.
 
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red dragon

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Any of you guys seen a single valid SARS CoV2 report (even a picture posted anywhere) from India?
Received at least 10 emails from former colleagues, who wanted to see how does a positive report look like. None of them received any report from NICED yet. One sent me a report of some weird viral profile with at least 8-10 virus mentioned in it including Corona (nothing mentioned about serotype)... incredible!!
 

blr_p

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Its UVC that kills the virus. Sunlight might not be enough. The same UVC that presumably is used in water filters


Would UVA or UVB work instead? And if so, does this mean you can disinfect things by leaving them out in the sun?

The short answer: possibly – but you wouldn’t want to rely on it.

In the developing world, sunlight is already a popular means of sterilising water – it’s even recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO). The technique involves pouring the water into a clear glass or plastic bottle, and leaving it out in the sun for six hours. It’s thought to work because the UVA in sunlight reacts with dissolved oxygen to produce unstable molecules such as hydrogen peroxide, the active ingredient in many household disinfectants, which can damage pathogens.

Without water, sunlight will still help to disinfect surfaces – but it may take longer than you’d think.
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Hopefully they start resuming milk delivery, thats the only reason to go to store.
The Nandini milk booth has been delivering milk reliably for me.

So they say the virus dont stay alive for long on various surfaces, so If I hang the masks to dry and use them after a few days, the virus would be dead is my theory. If i am forced to stand in queue daily, then I will be in trouble. I may use the spare UV lamps from the water purifers I have to sterlize them.
Be careful with those UVC lights

I dont have those normal surgical masks and most out there in the market now are knock off or made with zero sterilization.
I picked up a pack of 10, these have the metal strip to conform to the nose. Rs.400 for 10. Made in Thailand. Given the phramacist was wearing them too i figured i'd be ok. use and throw. He told me he had N95's for sale and showed me this Rs.350 thing that looked like a dust mask with a valve. Nothing on it said N95. So i asked him why he was not wearing one and he said he preferred the surgical mask instead. Its definitely because the breathing is easier.

Most importantly I do not enter store with more then 2 people in Queue,
Sounds good
 
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d33p

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Any of you guys seen a single valid SARS CoV2 report (even a picture posted anywhere) from India?
Received at least 10 emails from former colleagues, who wanted to see how does a positive report look like. None of them received any report from NICED yet. One sent me a report of some weird viral profile with at least 8-10 virus mentioned in it including Corona (nothing mentioned about serotype)... incredible!!
I've seen one report mentioned here
You have to scroll down to see it.