Corona virus


adder

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Even Singapore announces a month long lock down. This is the only way to contain or stop this. Testing cant do jack squat other then give data. You can test today and be negative and turn positive tomorrow.
 

Marcus Fenix

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Even Singapore announces a month long lock down. This is the only way to contain or stop this. Testing cant do jack squat other then give data. You can test today and be negative and turn positive tomorrow.
Not really. Lockdown will slow the community transmission but only testing will give you the information on the high risk spreaders so that you can isolate them.

If you don't test and isolate then the only solution would be to lock down India for a year which is not feasible on any level.

Its kinda like saying damn the bugs in UAT, lets put the application in Production and say "deal with it" to your project stakeholders.

You might just as well say we are going to die anyway in the long run so why bother with healthcare. :hungover:
 

adder

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No country with large population can test that many numbers. Look at USA they are in a mess because they didnt lock down.

Try answering this a place like bangalore will take 4 months to test, if its test like the combined power of all US states. Say a person goes to test today after 2 days he turns positive, he still doesn't know and he continuous to go to work, now if he shows symptoms he may get a retest. If he doesn't he spreads it further people. Rinse and repeat.

A good lockdown will stop this dead in it tracks.

New zealand locked down, despite having a tiny population.
 

Marcus Fenix

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A good lockdown will stop this dead in it tracks.
Its not at all feasible to test 1.3 billion people.

But a long-term lockdown is not a end-all be-all solution. I fully support the concept behind the lockdown till 21st of April but you have to keep in mind that we live a third world country albeit with delusions of grandeur regarding being a superpower.

80% of our population works in the informal sector and right now they are subsisting on their meager savings. Once those run out how will they survive?

We belong to the top 1-2% of our nation who have the luxury of work-from-home but the large majority doesn't. In case the lockdown is extended even we will run out of basic necessities by then and the supply chain will grind to a halt.

The only solution can be to accelerate the testing on hotspots and use every surveillance mechanism we have to target and isolate the spreaders.

This needs to be done quickly within these 3 weeks as you cannot extend a lockdown without drastic impact on the general populace. TThe government has to treat 21st of April as a hard deadline and try its best to cover as many infected as it can.
 

red dragon

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images (3).jpeg

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Is it considered ground reality ?
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Sorry it was meant for another related thread.
 

Marcus Fenix

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Just came across a moronic post spreading like wildfire on whatsapp with a video from some news site called wionews that 18 nations including USA and UK want Namo as the leader for Corona Task Force.

Basic fact check proved it wrong.

Maybe Modi made the right decision to talk to the people like you would with a 5 year old.

 

adder

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Its not at all feasible to test 1.3 billion people.

But a long-term lockdown is not a end-all be-all solution. I fully support the concept behind the lockdown till 21st of April but you have to keep in mind that we live a third world country albeit with delusions of grandeur regarding being a superpower.

80% of our population works in the informal sector and right now they are subsisting on their meager savings. Once those run out how will they survive?

We belong to the top 1-2% of our nation who have the luxury of work-from-home but the large majority doesn't. In case the lockdown is extended even we will run out of basic necessities by then and the supply chain will grind to a halt.

The only solution can be to accelerate the testing on hotspots and use every surveillance mechanism we have to target and isolate the spreaders.

This needs to be done quickly within these 3 weeks as you cannot extend a lockdown without drastic impact on the general populace. TThe government has to treat 21st of April as a hard deadline and try its best to cover as many infected as it can.
Obviously at some point the lock down as to be lifted. Testing should be saved for people showing symptoms, atleast they can have a sigh of relief when they come back negative. A perfectly normal person who followed social distancing and washing hands need not take one. We just don't have that many test kits. We need about 25lakh test kits to test the passengers who entered india before the lockdown in march alone. Not sure about the number whether it applies to just delhi or entire india. I do know that bangalore as about 15k passengers under home quaratine as of march 24.

I for one would wear masks for the entire year when we step out of the house or car and will continue to wash the sealed food packets.

I tried washing banana with hand wash, on a completly green banana bought at a local store nothing happened, on a slightly ripe banana delivered by a online store the colors changed colors immediately , its now looks like its well passed ripe , becoming black. Yet the banana inside is still hard to chew and as if it was just plucked out of a tree.
 

red dragon

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Danny, the guy in the middle of the picture I posted just tested positive. He doesn't have any symptoms whatsoever and real OCD with PPEs.
He and my wife were the most careful person in our team. Both caught the bug...I'm the most careless one (checking phone in that picture)... something is keeping me safe... sincerely hope it's the case for all Indians.
 
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chiron

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Danny, the guy in the middle of the picture I posted just tested positive. He doesn't have any symptoms whatsoever and real OCD with PPEs.
He and my wife were the most careful person in our team. Both caught the bug...I'm the most careless one (checking phone in that picture)... something is keeping me safe... sincerely hope it's the case for all Indians.
yeah, all things aside i hope the spread in the west isn't going to happen in india. scary situation though, both my parents are in the 70s.
 

blr_p

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Estimate of the costs of the lock down by Arvind Virmani depending on the length of the lock down

India's GDP presently just over $3 tr

End of the 21 day lock down - 3% GDP ($90 bn)

Lock down extended to Apr end - 5% GDP ($150 bn)

Lockdown until May end - 9% GDP ($270 bn)

Which is quite a hit when you consider the stimulus package ($22 bn) we announced was less than 1% ($30 bn) of GDP
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^ BCG vaccine is supposed to be safeguarding most of the (careless) Indians !
not sure how far it can be true ...
Empirical, some Japanese researchers mentioned it. The case is compare Portugal with Spain


Less than half as many affected in Portugal. Now see the deaths


This is where the difference comes out more. One tenth the deaths for Portugal.

The way you compare countries is per thousand or per million stats. Not plain cases or deaths.

So what is the difference between the two.

Portugal had a mass BCG incoculation program. Spain never did ! and this is the case for UK & US as well.

The problem with BCG is it can be given to young only. It's useless for adults.

What else can explain the difference between these two ? culturally they are very similar with their social habits.

Spain took a month and a half after the first case appeared to lock the country down.

Portugal locked down within three weeks of the first case appearing. Twice as fast. I think this makes a bigger difference.
 
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red dragon

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Don't assume things which are beyond your comprehension and experience.
Portugal didn't have a single mass gathering since January. Madrid had Women's day demonstration on 8th March.
Life in Madrid and Lisbon is completely different.
Spain didn't have any reason to start mandatory BCG vaccination.
Read Ana's ( Ana Gibral) article to understand how Lisbon is fighting it.
The government is paying 66 percent of a person's salary with kids. They could barely afford the lockdown financially, yet they enforced it only after ensuring common people's financial security.
This is the difference between Europe and the only 4th world country of the world.
It's really sad when the PM of the largest democracy addresses the nation as if he is a tribal leader!! Incredible India!!
 

red dragon

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This video is kind of weird. If you see O2 sat of a fully conscious patient is 40-50%
1. Check the sensor on your own finger/if the sensor is working correctly, check the peripheral pulses and temperature of the extremities of the patient ( cold hand/ shaking hands often shows abnormally low saturation) if they are cold try earlobes.
2. If still low ( with a working sensor) do an ABG
3. If the ABG shows less than 80, with pco2 above 50 ( preferably above 70-80) and the pt.is fully oriented it's possibly not arterial blood or the ABG machine hasn't been calibrated ( very very common in this situation)
4. No one intubate a pt. based on saturation with oxymeter probe reading only, unless the pt. is gasping.
5. COPD patients often tolerate significant hypoxia without hypercarbia.
6. These things happen with EVERY epidemic/ battlefield. These physicians are terrific personal doctors but this is possibly their first epidemic. Things will be easier next time around.
Let me give a small example how desperate situations require desperate measures.
One fine morning all 3 of our ABG machines were giving strange readings, and we don't know how to calibrate them.
I took arterial blood from the patient, asked the sister to take my arterial blood the next minute and compare them in colorimeter. It will give you a fair idea of hypercarbia ( not hypoxia) but if someone is having distress with hypercarbia there must be hypoxia.
These are techniques used during wars, and very effective.
I have used ball pen's empty refills to put in a peripheral venous line in Africa.
Moreover we are always facing shortage of ventilators and lot in Spain died of delayed ventilation.
Timely intubation vin TRUE type 2 respiratory failure saves life. There can not be any doubt about it.
However many things about SARS CoV 2 is mystery.
Specially how the **** it's causing necrotising pneumonia!!
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I really feel terrible for these brave doctors. US has many war trained doctors ( most of our instructors were from US) they should come forward and help these brave men.
And don't worry, intensivists of India are masters of dealing with faulty machine. Some of them can calculate ABG from VBG mentally. I have travelled extensively around the globe and only Indians can do this. Bad infrastructures for years have made them super efficient. None of the European doctors can do nasal intubation ( except anaesthetist) most of us Indians can.
Indians can still do femoral lines/ subclavian lines at lightning speed ( mostly obsolete, but very useful in situation like this)
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I'm free this evening, anybody with any question regarding this freaking virus can pm me.
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To lighten the mood a bit,
we all are enjoying a special gift from India. We brought (rather smuggled) a large quantity of bidis form India while returning home. My wife is a genius, who packed a lot of those small packets in my backpack when we left for Poland and completely forgot about it. Last evening while trying to find a clean pair of trousers found that package. We all ran out of cigarettes long back and could only get a few packs smuggled in by kitchen staff. Now these awesome bidis are super hit here.
 
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Marcus Fenix

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we all are enjoying a special gift from India. We brought (rather smuggled) a large quantity of bidis form India while returning home. My wife is a genius, who packed a lot of those small packets in my backpack when we left for Poland and completely forgot about it. Last evening while trying to find a clean pair of trousers found that package. We all ran out of cigarettes long back and could only get a few packs smuggled in by kitchen staff. Now these awesome bidis are super hit here.
Why are you still smoking ciggies when you have been abroad for such a long time?
I started vaping from 2018 and its been far better than ciggies so far for me. No shortness of breath or coughing and my supply will last another 6 months.
But bloody government banned it after ITC lobbied them.



Get Naked 100 35 mg Nic salt e-liquid in Amazing Mango flavour and you are good to go.
 

red dragon

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I know it is a disgusting habit. Thought about vaping, but I am not a very sophisticated person. And I had substance abuse problems earlier. Both of us thought of quitting it. But as former junkies, some of our self destructive nature will probably remain. We were H users mate, the worst of the worst. May be someday I will quit it completely after having a heart attack or something.
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Shit!!! My leave is getting shortened....5 days break then to NYC ( was fearing this) both of us have to go. I am really running out of middle fingers. It wont stop until we all die. Thankfully my sister is living there now.
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Wow!! Thought our jobs are most secure in this testing times..we are looking at minimum 20 percent cut from April! Looks like USA was giving a lot more than the estimated 25-35 percent.
We completely deserve this. WHO is now practically divided into 2 groups ( medical doctors= US and others= China)
It's not only money and physical resources, America provided us with invaluable trainings including wartime surgeries and procedures. Trump used to trust us but we betrayed him.
WHO had more than 60 people in Wuhan and they have all the data ( which circulated internally among the medics) yet we published the Chinese doctored data. Don't know who took the decision. DG certainly didn't. An organisation can not run like this.
Most of the consultants working for WHO are not employees. We only get consultancy fees and can't vote during elections. A large number amongst us are now demanding voting rights and threatening to quit.
Probably by next year WHO will go back to the original structure of 90 percent doctors ( without boundaries and at least some post grad degree in public health ) 5 percent docs ( not in that particular organisation) 5 percent non medicos.
That was the best model for everyone.
WHO doesn't need the best of cardio vascular surgeons or similar people. We need fearless / reckless people who don't faint seeing bomb blast victims, people who don't complain about bad infrastructures and are not afraid of physical confrontation ( we had to fight with people in Africa)
 
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Marcus Fenix

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I know it is a disgusting habit. Thought about vaping, but I am not a very sophisticated person. And I had substance abuse problems earlier. Both of us thought of quitting it. But as former junkies, some of our self destructive nature will probably remain. We were H users mate, the worst of the worst. May be someday I will quit it completely after having a heart attack or something.
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Shit!!! My leave is getting shortened....5 days break then to NYC ( was fearing this) both of us have to go. I am really running out of middle fingers. It wont stop until we all die. Thankfully my sister is living there now.
Post automatically merged:

Wow!! Thought our jobs are most secure in this testing times..we are looking at minimum 20 percent cut from April! Looks like USA was giving a lot more than the estimated 25-35 percent.
We completely deserve this. WHO is now practically divided into 2 groups ( medical doctors= US and others= China)
It's not only money and physical resources, America provided us with invaluable trainings including wartime surgeries and procedures. Trump used to trust us but we betrayed him.
WHO had more than 60 people in Wuhan and they have all the data ( which circulated internally among the medics) yet we published the Chinese doctored data. Don't know who took the decision. DG certainly didn't. An organisation can not run like this.
Most of the consultants working for WHO are not employees. We only get consultancy fees and can't vote during elections. A large number amongst us are now demanding voting rights and threatening to quit.
Probably by next year WHO will go back to the original structure of 90 percent doctors ( without boundaries and at least some post grad degree in public health ) 5 percent docs ( not in that particular organisation) 5 percent non medicos.
That was the best model for everyone.
WHO doesn't need the best of cardio vascular surgeons or similar people. We need fearless / reckless people who don't faint seeing bomb blast victims, people who don't complain about bad infrastructures and are not afraid of physical confrontation ( we had to fight with people in Africa)
I am not sure if I did the right thing by liking your post. The first part is very bad news for you. :(

The outline that you laid out for WHO seems to be the right approach though.

But Trump cutting WHO funding in a petty bully move is not the right approach.

WHO will have to depend a lot more on China which caused this problem in the first place.


 

red dragon

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It's fine mate, I'm clean for 15 years now. My wife also had the same problem. She will be completing 12 years in June.
Our addiction issues help us immensely in the work we do. We still attend narcotics anonymous meetings whenever possible.