Corona virus
- Thread starter Techno
- Start date
Wuhan is capital of Hubei province. There are at least 13000- 14000 reported cases outside of Hubei in mainland China.
The real numbers are possibly way higher. There's a Lancet article regarding the outbreak outside Hubei.
The real numbers are possibly way higher. There's a Lancet article regarding the outbreak outside Hubei.
this is guy is very biased. this is his fifth episode on coronavirus and I am still waiting for him to give some airtime on WHO and China's actions or the lack there of. Or the situation in countries like Briton (because he comes from there)Some
Crapmypants
Adept
China has been lying about their numbers. There are reports that in wuhan alone over 40,000 funeral urns have been collected by residents.
That being said, i'm glad to read that i'm not the only one who think tedros is a failure. It's clear that chinese money going into ethiopia has influenced him.
There were internal memos (from WHO's MERS specialist iirc) that suspected human-human transmission from the start.
Worst is the way he treats Taiwan. It seems he messed up a cholera outbreak in ethiopia by downplaying the severity (same problem, different day).
I know everyone wants to blame beijing and i agree, however, they are not alone to blame. tedros had a choice (while residents of wuhan don't) and chose to play politics with the lives of our entire species (and is still doing so). Absolutely no contrition for the now infamous "no human transmission" tweet.
Party Monger
Skilled
He doesnt speak about things without indepth research and full facts in place. When he will, he will do a full episode. If you want to check you can check out his multiple episodes on China instead of blindly following RW propaganda and calling peple biased cause they have a higher level of fact checking.
And china hates him so much that - Why you can't talk about John Oliver in China
Does China ban you? I think its sufficient to say he had done 10x more to hurt china than you have. Only the Right wing incels hate him cause he ****s Trump mudi etc so bad.
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There is nothing much else to talk about the virus itself.
Microbiologists do not know much yet about the morphology, pathogenesis and immune responses.
Epidemiologists are struggling with even the exact modes of transmission, incubation period and very basic things like that.
We don't even know if it can cross blood brain barrier or not. Even SARS CoV 1 is still a mystery ( and calling this CoV 2 are mostly based on semiology, affinity towards the same receptor and basic genome. There are some morphological difference already known and the pathogenesis may be different significantly.
The entire RNA virus family is mysterious.
Viral culture even today is beyond most microbiology labs. Believe it or not unlike bacteria and mostly everything about pathogenic virus is based on knowledgeable guesswork.
Microbiologists do not know much yet about the morphology, pathogenesis and immune responses.
Epidemiologists are struggling with even the exact modes of transmission, incubation period and very basic things like that.
We don't even know if it can cross blood brain barrier or not. Even SARS CoV 1 is still a mystery ( and calling this CoV 2 are mostly based on semiology, affinity towards the same receptor and basic genome. There are some morphological difference already known and the pathogenesis may be different significantly.
The entire RNA virus family is mysterious.
Viral culture even today is beyond most microbiology labs. Believe it or not unlike bacteria and mostly everything about pathogenic virus is based on knowledgeable guesswork.
rdst_1
Skilled
Meanwhile, here is a tracker which lists all the current treatment and vaccines being tested against SARS - CoV 2 and the various stages they are in.
milkeninstitute.org
Milken Institute’s COVID-19 Treatment and Vaccine Tracker tracks the development of treatments and vaccines for COVID-19 at covid-19tracker.milkeninstitute.org #COVID19 #coronavirus #COVID19treatment #COVID19vaccine @MilkenInstitute @FirstPersonSF
The Milken Institute’s COVID-19 Treatment and Vaccine Tracker tracks the development of treatments and vaccines for COVID-19 (coronavirus). Explore the latest updates on the urgent race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine.
milkeninstitute.org
blr_p
Skilled
Because they contained it. There was a ring around Wuhan and a second one around Hubei. Jan 23 is when it began and it only relaxed Mar 28. So that is a two month lockdown in that area alone. As in cannot leave your housing society kind of lock down. Other places in China were more relaxed. Face masks were mandatory right from the start. Get caught outdoors without wearing one meant 14 day detention in a quarantine facility.
Taiwan started screening arrivals from Wuhan in Jan and kept their numbers low. Taiwan ignored the WHO as well as China. Taiwan tried to warn the world but the WHO played politics instead and ignored them. If the world has listened to the Taiwan CDC instead of the WHO, the problem would be 80% less than it is today.
The reason it spread outside China is due to diplomatic pressure the CCP applies on others not to cut off connections with China. They basically delayed others from cutting them off. Trump cut China off on Feb 02 but took a month to do the same with Europe. As a consequence the US got more infected by travel from Europe than China. Why ? diplomatic pressure from the EU. As it is they whined loudly when Trump finally shut the door to them. All the while WHO discouraging countries from snapping travel links with countries.
India only cut off china on Feb 17 a good two weeks after the US. Mar 7 we cut off Italy. Mar 10 we cut off the UK. Mar 20 we cut off the Gulf.
China did a terrible job by not informing their own people. Wuhan would never have exploded if it wasn't for that big banquet they held on Jan 19
China didn't warn public of likely pandemic for 6 key days
President Xi Jinping warned the public on the seventh day, January 20.
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Forget WHO/ CDC for a second. Google up educational qualifications of Taiwanese president and vice president. That's the reason for Taiwanese success.Because they contained it. There was a ring around Wuhan and a second one around Hubei. Jan 23 is when it began and it only relaxed Mar 28. So that is a two month lockdown in that area alone. As in cannot leave your housing society kind of lock down. Other places in China were more relaxed. Face masks were mandatory right from the start. Get caught outdoors without wearing one meant 14 day detention in a quarantine facility.
Taiwan started screening arrivals from Wuhan in Jan and kept their numbers low. Taiwan ignored the WHO as well as China. Taiwan tried to warn the world but the WHO played politics instead and ignored them. If the world has listened to the Taiwan CDC instead of the WHO, the problem would be 80% less than it is today.
The reason it spread outside China is due to diplomatic pressure the CCP applies on others not to cut off connections with China. They basically delayed others from cutting them off. Trump cut China off on Feb 02 but took a month to do the same with Europe. As a consequence the US got more infected by travel from Europe than China. Why ? diplomatic pressure from the EU. As it is they whined loudly when Trump finally shut the door to them. All the while WHO discouraging countries from snapping travel links with countries.
India only cut off china on Feb 17 a good two weeks after the US. Mar 7 we cut off Italy. Mar 10 we cut off the UK. Mar 20 we cut off the Gulf.
China did a terrible job by not informing their own people. Wuhan would never have exploded if it wasn't for that big banquet they held on Jan 19
China didn't warn public of likely pandemic for 6 key days
President Xi Jinping warned the public on the seventh day, January 20.economictimes.indiatimes.com
Now think about our great PM, he can't probably spell the word disease correctly. That's the difference between a successful and a failed nation.
blr_p
Skilled
We're not a failed nation ! That would be Pakistan.
Taiwanese success is exactly because they did not trust the CCP or WHO.
We moved 6 days after your shit for brains org declared a pandemic. That IS proactive. No half measures, All of the country.
And we see the results in doubling time. The lock down has worked. Every one in the country is now apprised about social distancing. We bought time to prepare as well.
If they want to extend it, let them do so.
Smash the curve instead of merely flattening it
rdst_1
Skilled
@blr_p - I love how you can call both Taiwanese and Indian responses as proactive in the same reply.
Both can't be proactive. One country didn't wait for the WHO response while the other waited for 6 more days after WHO declared it a pandemic. How can both decisions be equally good and proactive.
Our govt failed miserably in quarantining all foreign travelers and that is the only reason why we are in such a big mess. Thankfully this virus didn't originate here and our govt had a simple job of making sure it didn't enter India, which they failed at. China, being an aggressive neighbour of ours, I am sure we haveat least some spies embedded in their country who would have warned us of what was actually happening in China.
And no, just because most countries of the world failed at identifying this pandemic, doesn't give a clean chit to our government on it's failure to allow this disease to enter India.
Both can't be proactive. One country didn't wait for the WHO response while the other waited for 6 more days after WHO declared it a pandemic. How can both decisions be equally good and proactive.
Our govt failed miserably in quarantining all foreign travelers and that is the only reason why we are in such a big mess. Thankfully this virus didn't originate here and our govt had a simple job of making sure it didn't enter India, which they failed at. China, being an aggressive neighbour of ours, I am sure we haveat least some spies embedded in their country who would have warned us of what was actually happening in China.
And no, just because most countries of the world failed at identifying this pandemic, doesn't give a clean chit to our government on it's failure to allow this disease to enter India.
India got lucky to some extent. it was not proactive measure. India is just few weeks behind the curve compared to other countries' outbreaks thats all. which means, "just got lucky at declaring the shutdown"
Btw, whats india doing while shutdown? to be specific... where is the ppp/mask production? where is the ventilator production numbers? where are the numbers for hospital icu rampup? how many icu beds per 1000 were there before the shutdown and how many are now? The shutdown was to ramp up the facilities so that hospitals wont be overrun... like europe.
Just saying "Mitron... stay at home." is not the answer. it will cause more deaths due to hunger than the virus. India is still importing ****in broken tests from china... CHINA of all the world.
to be more specific, they stopped all the domestic travel form wuhan but they allowed international flights from wuhan. which is directly attributed to the outbreak in italy.
Conclusion... Chinese government intentionally allowed the virus to spread outside china.
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Party Monger
Skilled
Bhakts use this technique to put mudiji in good light. They will keep quoting the country/person with best response and mudi (who will do a very small fraction of that but beat about it very loudly) till people start thinking they're in the same league. While substantively, mudi would have failed very miserably on the whole.
That along with holding on to scraps thrown our way "to feel proud". A news channel today had a foreign gues, and the indian host kept mentioning how some agency said India's lockdown is the most harsh one, in order to squeeze some praise out of him on air, and the guy kept saying yes its harsh, but we dont know how effective it will eventually be. This kind of shit is so cringy.
blr_p
Skilled
I would describe Taiwans actions as akin to having cheat codes in a video game. Beyond proactive
Shutting down the entire country is proactive. To the extent we have we rate a 100 in terms of stringency. Taking half measures is reactive. Clear now ?
Nobody can say it was not proactive. Modi gets full credit for taking a very difficult decision in record time.
Had we ignored the WHO we would have cut off China a month earlier. But no we listened to them how we should not cut off connections.
WHO virtually assured an outbreak in China would became a pandemic by their late action and left all of us to scramble.
One million in quarantine is not failing miserably. That is excellent contact tracing at work. None of you even realised this until i mentioned it.
We cut off China on Feb 17, Italy on March 08 and the UK by the 18th. That means every one that arrived from abroad was put in quarantine. My city council listed all people that entered the city and where from with even their addresses in the city. There have been cases of people who broke quarantine and otherwise acted irresponsible. You can't pin their actions on the govt.
Forgot about Tablighi Jamat ? Their people went into hiding and did not cooperate. The extent of the problem would have been smaller otherwise.
Coronavirus spread analysis with and without Tablighi Jamaat event
Without Tablighi Jamaat incident and Lockdown, the Coronavirus numbers in India would have been 3,40,000 as on 14th April | OpIndia News
www.opindia.com
This one group aggravated our case load by 50%. Why they were even allowed to congregate in Delhi after we banned gatherings is a burning question.
You can be 100% sure this was allowed by Amit Shah & Co. Why ?
Govt is afraid they will cause riots and protests all over the country at a time when there is lock down ? what ?
The way we dealt with followers of Baba Ram Rahim was to open fire on them. Same with Sterlite troublemakers in TN.
With TJ there is only molly coddling. The most disgraceful part is NSA meeting TJ chief at midnight.
For what ? to beg for his cooperation or threaten him.
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How can we be lucky when we declared a shutdown and others did not ? Take the US for example. Not all of it shutdown and they cannot shut it down to the extent we have.
The luck if you want to call it that is compliance by the public has been exemplary. How do you get people to wear masks and stay in to the extent they have.
I'd say compliance is easily over 90% given how doubling time has increased. Meaning an extension is feasible. Either by another two weeks or a month.
Agreed we have delayed things but the size of the problem is also smaller and we should be able to handle it better.
Whether we exploit the gains or squander them remains to be seen.
Orders placed and products arrived. This was an issue a month ago. It's eased considerably since. I don't see articles talking about it for over two weeks now.
If we need more time we'll stay locked down. The military has not been required to enforce this lock down so we're good like that. That will be even more time to prepare.
In any case the rural areas have been relaxed. So its been phased. A number of states have become C19 free. No new cases for over two weeks. They will be opened gradually and serve as test cases for others.
Diplomatic pressure by China. Arm twisting. If you block us then don't expect any cooperation. Things have to get so bad that they cannot hide the problem any more by which time its too late.
This is a fundamental problem with preventing spread of epidemics. The country that has the problem does not want to get blacklisted until it is too late.
This is the extent of how irresponsible they have been just to save face. All will be accounted for. China's image is in the toilet right now.
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rdst_1
Skilled
I would describe Taiwans actions as akin to having cheat codes in a video game. Beyond proactive
Shutting down the entire country is proactive. To the extent we have we rate a 100 in terms of stringency. Taking half measures is reactive. Clear now ?
One million in quarantine is not failing miserably. That is excellent contact tracing at work. None of you even realised this until i mentioned it.
We cut off China on Feb 17, Italy on March 08 and the UK by the 18th. That means every one that arrived from abroad was put in quarantine. My city council listed all people that entered the city and where from with even their addresses in the city. There have been cases of people who broke quarantine and otherwise acted irresponsible. You can't pin their actions on the govt.
Forgot about Tablighi Jamat ? Their people went into hiding and did not cooperate. The extent of the problem would have been smaller otherwise
Bro, it's very simple. Firstly, we knew about quarantining measures before you told us. I have friends who arrived from abroad and have been in quarantine and being visited by govt officials. However, this is true for only later cases. Earlier cases weren't handled with enough strictness and there wasn't any strict testing of passengers arriving from abroad. There was only thermal screening till as late as 20th March. How do I know? I have friends who came on 19th.
Also, yes, I hold the govt responsible for cases of people who broke quarantine and acted irresponsibly. If the govt can ensure lockdown of 90% of the country (in your own words), why weren't they stringent or strict enough with the initial quarantining.
Thanks for bringing up the question about TJ. Again a big failure. When the Maha govt could cancel the meeting why couldn't it be cancelled in Delhi, especially when the police station shares a wall with the building where it all went down.
As I have said previously, it is very simple for people like me. You seem to be impressed or at least satisfied by our govt response, and I do agree with you, some decisions taken have been better than those taken by other countries. However, in our opinion, they came too late and the response has been a little reactive and knee-jerky. The main issue I personally have is why are our lives being held hostage due to a disease which would have been so easily contained just because of the fact that it didn't originate in India and all that was needed to contain it was do strict quarantining of all passengers from abroad as early as data about this virus was coming out. I clearly remember, us in the TE whatsapp group talking about it as early as first/second week of January as some of us were receiving shipments from Aliexpress.
So, again, please don't assume that our opinion of the govt comes from a place of ignorance and we don't know what the govt has been doing. Our opinions come from the fact, that we believe our govts response has been unsatisfactory, irrespective of the plaudits you bestow upon their actions.
Lastly, there is a latest order by MHA, that all those companies who open their offices or factories will be held responsible and penal action will be taken on them under the Disaster Management Act, if even one of their employees tests positive for Covid-19. By the simple logic of this order, I think the govt should put itself behind bars first, because their inadequacies allowed the disease to enter the country in the first place.
India's lockdown was the harshest , yet the relief package is the lowest of all countries.
Now I have first hand knowledge and some official documents (with non disclosure agreement) of governmental plans too.
And I failed to understand what has been done over last 3-4 weeks.
There are around 11 lakhs people in quarantine across all parts of India, however the method of contact tracing defies all rules/ laws of epidemiology. There are definitive rules of quarantine for diseases with more than 60 percent asymptomatic cases, but NOTHING has been implemented.
They have people quarantined for close contact of pulmonary tuberculosis patients just to complete the paperwork ( the paperwork itself is ridiculously complicated, incomprehensible for barely literate health workers of rural India)
Can write pages on how nothing much has been done during the lockdown ( except some brave and good work from various state police departments.
But this is not the time to blame anyone. Modi should have declared that not a single person working with ICMR has real life experience of a full blown epidemic ( it's no one's fault). They should have asked for help a month ago. It's a miracle/ medical mystery that India is still having very low case load.
We've wasted a lot of time, but God has saved us, but it's time to stop fooling ignorant people with propagandas and start working.
ICMR is doing it's best with very limited resources and zero past experience. They didn't have the authority/ resources to bring in external help. However ICMR's DG has convinced our illiterate PM and his gang of goons that lockdown is never a solution for medical emergencies and these are slightly more complicated than surgical strikes in a neighboring country.
India has to lift the lockdown and face the virus head on, lots of lives will be lost. But it won't exceed the number India will loose due to the economic situation.
I completely agree that the most powerful men of India should be behind the bars when everything settles ( don't worry bhakts, your beloved ICMR will eventually demand the same in 3 months time)
BTW, the infamous IT cell again blocked my twitter handle ( this time it had ICMR in the name) and most of the big boys @ ICMR ( who are not appointed by political parties) have started using twitter, let's see how many can these idiots block.
Now I have first hand knowledge and some official documents (with non disclosure agreement) of governmental plans too.
And I failed to understand what has been done over last 3-4 weeks.
There are around 11 lakhs people in quarantine across all parts of India, however the method of contact tracing defies all rules/ laws of epidemiology. There are definitive rules of quarantine for diseases with more than 60 percent asymptomatic cases, but NOTHING has been implemented.
They have people quarantined for close contact of pulmonary tuberculosis patients just to complete the paperwork ( the paperwork itself is ridiculously complicated, incomprehensible for barely literate health workers of rural India)
Can write pages on how nothing much has been done during the lockdown ( except some brave and good work from various state police departments.
But this is not the time to blame anyone. Modi should have declared that not a single person working with ICMR has real life experience of a full blown epidemic ( it's no one's fault). They should have asked for help a month ago. It's a miracle/ medical mystery that India is still having very low case load.
We've wasted a lot of time, but God has saved us, but it's time to stop fooling ignorant people with propagandas and start working.
ICMR is doing it's best with very limited resources and zero past experience. They didn't have the authority/ resources to bring in external help. However ICMR's DG has convinced our illiterate PM and his gang of goons that lockdown is never a solution for medical emergencies and these are slightly more complicated than surgical strikes in a neighboring country.
India has to lift the lockdown and face the virus head on, lots of lives will be lost. But it won't exceed the number India will loose due to the economic situation.
I completely agree that the most powerful men of India should be behind the bars when everything settles ( don't worry bhakts, your beloved ICMR will eventually demand the same in 3 months time)
BTW, the infamous IT cell again blocked my twitter handle ( this time it had ICMR in the name) and most of the big boys @ ICMR ( who are not appointed by political parties) have started using twitter, let's see how many can these idiots block.
Veek M
Disciple
> completely agree that the most powerful men of India should be behind the bars
so you plan on locking up the middle class? How many people here have been to a consumer court, paid bribes-directly/indirectly? We all accept corruption.
FOCUS ON constructive activities and DON'T LISTEN to people telling you wasteful/destructive things!
(locking them up, killing them == DESTRUCTIVE. making everyone study/PhD/work == CONSTRUCTIVE)
so you plan on locking up the middle class? How many people here have been to a consumer court, paid bribes-directly/indirectly? We all accept corruption.
FOCUS ON constructive activities and DON'T LISTEN to people telling you wasteful/destructive things!
(locking them up, killing them == DESTRUCTIVE. making everyone study/PhD/work == CONSTRUCTIVE)
I get your point mate ( Veek M) and you are right. But at some point in life ( I am 43!!) you expect people working as scientists with PhD in public health to know how to draw an epidemiological map of an area during an epidemic. I have started work with certain areas of Howrah in West Bengal ( as I am somewhat familiar with that area in real life) but these lazy asses refuse to work overnight even now!! Das nagar is an industrial area, it is not a remote village, but they still are not being able to send me a map of a small area after 8 hours!!
Do you sincerely believe that this kind of work ethics can save a nation like India from something like a Covid 19 pandemic. These guys are still hoping that the virus will spare them. Within 7 days of lifting the lockdown will push India to a brink of complete collapse if things remain this slow.
Unless you witness first hand, it is very difficult to imagine how freaking fast this virus spread. Places in India can be wiped out in a couple of days. ALL the nurses and doctors in hospitals can be infected within 3 days ( 80 percent of La Paz staff got infected in less than 5 days even with the best of protection)
People are still asleep, as Modi`s only plan is to continue with lockdown, all the propaganda about low case fatality, low symptomatic patient rate. Everything will change overnight once the lockdown is lifted. We have less than 10 days....
Some Bhakts will say I am a fearmonger. May be I am, as I have seen the destruction in countries with absolutely perfect health care systems crumble under pressure. India has ZERO chance against this virus unless the government and the officials wake up. Some of us are having sick fun watching the death toll rising in US every hour, India can very well have 20-50 times more mortality.
I have already received 50 percent of my payment. I can do nothing ( like everyone in India except police) and get the rest of the payment by chalking up some bullshit plans in 2-3 hours, but karma will catch up with me, it is a b**ch. Hope the great PM is aware of that.
Do you sincerely believe that this kind of work ethics can save a nation like India from something like a Covid 19 pandemic. These guys are still hoping that the virus will spare them. Within 7 days of lifting the lockdown will push India to a brink of complete collapse if things remain this slow.
Unless you witness first hand, it is very difficult to imagine how freaking fast this virus spread. Places in India can be wiped out in a couple of days. ALL the nurses and doctors in hospitals can be infected within 3 days ( 80 percent of La Paz staff got infected in less than 5 days even with the best of protection)
People are still asleep, as Modi`s only plan is to continue with lockdown, all the propaganda about low case fatality, low symptomatic patient rate. Everything will change overnight once the lockdown is lifted. We have less than 10 days....
Some Bhakts will say I am a fearmonger. May be I am, as I have seen the destruction in countries with absolutely perfect health care systems crumble under pressure. India has ZERO chance against this virus unless the government and the officials wake up. Some of us are having sick fun watching the death toll rising in US every hour, India can very well have 20-50 times more mortality.
I have already received 50 percent of my payment. I can do nothing ( like everyone in India except police) and get the rest of the payment by chalking up some bullshit plans in 2-3 hours, but karma will catch up with me, it is a b**ch. Hope the great PM is aware of that.