Demonetisation and its Aftermath


blr_p

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^The terror angle & fake money has been said earlier but the dots weren't connected to the extent Mani has done it.

This is the part that challenges the above story. Does the money need to be in india though ?

We assume the money has already arrived in the country. So if no FICN recovered then story is false ? not so

Absence of evidence isn't absence of intent on the side of the Paks.

Put it this way, could the govt take the risk ? There was no way to stop the money coming in any way.

Here's what Mani says

But the reaction from a humiliated Pakistani establishment was imminent. They would dare not resort to anything conventional. Hence, they must have planned something big and keeping the state actors away, through their sleeper cells. My common refrain having been associated with the security establishment is that forces are blamed for the mishaps that occur but never for those attacks which are pre-empted or prevented by the intelligence and security forces. This might fall under that category.
Having said that something big had been planned, it needs to be emphasised that finance is the lifeline of terrorism. Hence, in order to fund the unholy endeavour, huge amounts of money through this FICN route must have been planned to be pumped into India. Our intelligence must have received the input. Hence, demonetisation was announced as an overnight move, taking the bull by its horns.
In anticipation of FICN being sent the decision was taken.
 
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blr_p

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^ How do you price a 26/11 ? how much did it cost us ?

Maybe, Hafeez Saeed doesn't even need to bother with his retaliation plans since we are already under strike by our own govt. Its absurd that people have their blood boil when ever they hear about casualties in terror attacks to the point that they want to nuke Pak in retaliation. They feel sympathy for those who lost their lives in a train accident, but its somehow fine if its our own govt being the cause of casualties because of its incompetency, negligence and poor planning and the causalities are put off as necessary sacrifices.
Is there any estimate for how much FICN was in the system at that point. What effect does adding more have on the economy ?

It's natural there would be a contraction after notes ban.

Whether the price of the exercise was worth it we can only know if more info comes out.

We don't see the full picture the govt sees.

Also, please do not take the figures on drop in GDP growth on face value. What would have happened if the planned amount of FICN had been pumped into India between November 7-9, 2016. What impact would it have had on your GDP growth? God forbid, if the funds had been used for the intent for which its meant, successfully, what would have been the loss of national assets.

If India's strength is its economy then the way to attack that economy is FICN. A constant drip feed over decades.

More security personnel have died fighting terrorism over the decades than in all of India's wars combined.

FICN was first noticed in 2004 and a notice was only sent out in 2008 to sensitise the concerned personnel.

In a talk Mani was mentioning how the banks could not distinguish between the genuine and the fake.

At one bank he showed them two notes and asked them to spot the fake.

Bank told him they felt the one made in Pakistan was the real item and the one made in India was fake !!!

Indian notes are 92 gsm paper, fake ones are 100+ gsm

Who can tell the difference ?
 
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6pack

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This is the part that challenges the above story. Does the money need to be in india though ?

On 8 November 2016, Prime Minister of India, Mr. Narendra Modi announced that the hitherto existing 500 and 1000 rupee notes cease to be legal tender. He said that the move is taken to curb black money and widespread counterfeit currency in the country. He introduced new ₹500 and ₹2000 notes, and discontinued the hitherto existing ₹1000 note.
If you have doubt with wikipedia, how about the PM Modi twitter channel? Look at the claims he made for the demo

Modi-twitter-demo.jpg


pm-narendra-modi-tweet-demonetization-fake-notes.jpg


We assume the money has already arrived in the country. So if no FICN recovered then story is false ? not so
Who is we here? You? Or someone else? Why should we listen to your assumptions when you wont listen to us and only interested in dragging old posts back to bump up the thread?

Absence of evidence isn't absence of intent on the side of the Paks.
So you say the Modi govt took drastic steps like removing the entire money from the system without any concrete proof?
So why should I believe anything the BJP govt does now? For me everything they do will be without any evidence or any meaning behind it now.


Indian notes are 92 gsm paper, fake ones are 100+ gsm
If there was no black money like you said, how come you know the difference in gsm of real and fake currency?


Btw, this was also said during the demo.

rahul-gandhi-tweet-1530273228.jpg


I'm still waiting for the 15L to come to my bank account. Where the hell is that money? If he can remove money from everyone's account he can very well add money to everyone's accounts.
I don't want to hear any excuses from you on this matter till you or Modi give me my 15Lacs.
 

psyph3r

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Lol why are you wasting your time with the biggest goalpost shifting flip flopper on the forum.
Here's his post from yesterday.

Filter out the conspiracies.

Follow commentators that do not have a problem with the govt for a start.

What i told you is a distillation from numerous sites. Not NDTV. Not IE. Not TOI

Its in the vernacular press but the english press does not have it
Now he goes and posts this while citing a Zeenews article.

To avert a major terror attack by the Paks in retaliation for India's raid in PO J&K after the Uri attack.

Our first raid into PO J&K was the night of Sept 29 2016

The Paks want to get back so they will send in fake notes.

We anticipate it, Modi invalidates the notes Nov 08 or a month later.

Pre-emptive move.

So the rationale for notes ban was security related and not economic.

And certainly not political as i thought at the time.
 

Party Monger

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Lol why are you wasting your time with the biggest goalpost shifting flip flopper on the forum.
Here's his post from yesterday.

Now he goes and posts this while citing a Zeenews article.
LMAO Agreed. Have him ignored to save my braincells. Should be just banned for wildly stupid insinuations and justifications. These sanghis hide behind weird theories and invent conspiracies when their stupid leader falters. Like demonatization was a complete **** up, now suddenly there was a paki attack planned that mudiji foiled. Troubling 1.3 billion people instead of intercepting the fake notes lmoa. Next he will say its okay to Nuke the whole country to kill 10 terrorists.
 

Marcus Fenix

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Whoa @6pack chill dude. Don't lose your temper.

The zeenews article is hilarious as to how deep you need to go down the conspiracy rabbit hole to even believe this.

As per RBI in 2016 before demonetisation the total value of circulated fake notes was about 400 crores.Detected valuation was 63.2 crores even if I assume that all detected notes were 1000 Rs notes.

The number of FICN dipped after demonetisation but that was temporary as it peaked again in 2019.

So to stop the influx of 400 crores you cripple the growth of a 10 trillion USD economy?

I know that I don't support the government's stance on many things but I don't buy our leadership is that dumb to cut off their own nose to spite someone else.

Keep in mind Pulwama happened last year after the so called terror funds ran dry. Thing is we won't ever have peace from terror attacks as long as Paki army has major political as well as economic clout there.
They have been able to hold on to a bigger piece of the Paki political power and economy by claiming to be the sole defender against the danger posed by India.
IMHO if the Paki army buggers didn't meddle with us then the notion of peace between us is not far-fetched.
Likewise it furthers the agenda of our government to claim Paki terrorism and counterfeiting as a huge drain on our economy as well as security.
Its the same kind of stategy used by Bush, Trump, MBS or Erdogan.

The guy who wrote the article based all of it on the suicide of a guy in Pakistan. From there its a massive leap of faith without any logic and I want the shrooms this guy is on.His life seems awesome.

@blr_p what happened to you man? I know that you are a staunch supporter of BJP which is okay but this I didn't expect from you.




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LMAO Agreed. Have him ignored to save my braincells. Should be just banned for wildly stupid insinuations and justifications. These sanghis hide behind weird theories and invent conspiracies when their stupid leader falters. Like demonatization was a complete **** up, now suddenly there was a paki attack planned that mudiji foiled. Troubling 1.3 billion people instead of intercepting the fake notes lmoa. Next he will say its okay to Nuke the whole country to kill 10 terrorists.
I don't think banning is the answer here. With blr_p at least you can engage in a discussion which I cannot say for some other guys on this forum.

This is the beauty of the divide and rule strategy. Before all this all political posts were of us griping about the government and laughing at some of their antics.

Now its almost turned into a "us vs them" flamewar. This rabid fanboyism wrapped in nationalistic fervour is what BJP IT cell brought to the table.

They have managed to radicalize a large portion of our educated youth and you have to engage with them with your counterpoint or else they will bounce off each other in their own echo chamber and cannot differentiate between the notion of a nation and a political party.
 
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6pack

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I know that I don't support the government's stance on many things but I don't buy our leadership is that dumb to cut off their own nose to spite someone else.
Stupid people take stupid decisions. It's in their nature. Look at their entire rank. All they do is fight incessantly and call others names or brand other party members as terrorists. They are full of petty people who fight on twitter or other media.
Dumb people like these can't run a country properly. All the running is done by IAS officers in the back. If the top starts behaving badly, the lower staff will start mimicking them too since they know they will get off with it. What we will have is an avalanche of bad decisions from top to bottom. The country isn't going to grow at 6% or 7% when such stupid people are at the helm. It will probably fall every year by 1-2%.
 

nimod

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Stupid people take stupid decisions. It's in their nature. Look at their entire rank. All they do is fight incessantly and call others names or brand other party members as terrorists. They are full of petty people who fight on twitter or other media.
Dumb people like these can't run a country properly. All the running is done by IAS officers in the back. If the top starts behaving badly, the lower staff will start mimicking them too since they know they will get off with it. What we will have is an avalanche of bad decisions from top to bottom. The country isn't going to grow at 6% or 7% when such stupid people are at the helm. It will probably fall every year by 1-2%.

Here's one:

 

blr_p

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Now he goes and posts this while citing a Zeenews article.
Check out Mani's background ;)
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Lol why are you wasting your time with the biggest goalpost shifting flip flopper on the forum.
Here's his post from yesterday.
No goalposts have been shifted

I'm on record having rejected the 'official' reason for notes ban, yes ?

I'm saying the move makes sense from a security prism.

It makes no sense otherwise.

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If you have doubt with wikipedia, how about the PM Modi twitter channel? Look at the claims he made for the demo

View attachment 84444

View attachment 84445
Govt said this but i don't find the reason makes much sense. I've never agreed with it.


Who is we here? You? Or someone else? Why should we listen to your assumptions when you wont listen to us and only interested in dragging old posts back to bump up the thread?
leave out we. The assumption made is the money is in the country. yes ? that is the flaw in your thinking behind making that post.

Also keep in mind they never disclosed the full amount that was returned. Because it exceeded the expected figure of notes in circulation.

All posts are fair game to valid bumps. I do not have any qualms about bumping old posts if it adds to them.


So you say the Modi govt took drastic steps like removing the entire money from the system without any concrete proof?
Pre-emptive requires proof of imminence. You doubt the Paks would not retaliate ? course you do not.


So why should I believe anything the BJP govt does now? For me everything they do will be without any evidence or any meaning behind it now.
It's real simple. Believe what they say until shown otherwise. And this only comes out years later. It's true of any govt.

I would be more circumspect of the opposition because they are irresponsible and can say whatever they want.

They don't make policy, they don't get to declare war. All they are good for is noise.

If there was no black money like you said, how come you know the difference in gsm of real and fake currency?
Never said there is no black money. Saying the move according to Mani was about tackling counterfeit money. My post was very clear on this point.

Black money is legal tender. Counterfeit is not. Difference!

Counterfeit is more dangerous. You don't have to earn it.

I don't want to hear any excuses from you on this matter till you or Modi give me my 15Lacs.
It's not an excuse. It's a reason. One more plausible than the official one given.

Mani made that post over a year and a half ago. I only found out about it recently.

Interesting point.
 
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6pack

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leave out we. The assumption made is the money is in the country. yes ? that is the flaw in your thinking behind making that post.
that includes everyone who thought that the country was full of black money, including entire BJP party and Modi, right? I mean look at the image. He says country is full of black money by saying removing of circulation of large volume of counterfeit currency to end. I doubt he was talking of removing counterfeit currency outside India.
 

blr_p

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that includes everyone who thought that the country was full of black money, including entire BJP party and Modi, right? I mean look at the image. He says country is full of black money by saying removing of circulation of large volume of counterfeit currency to end. I doubt he was talking of removing counterfeit currency outside India.
This govt seems to stumble on communication at times.

To push the black money angle is to gain political mileage. That is what i though was the reason for going with it but see the costs. People dying etc. I called it state violence, remember ? As a basis for the move it makes no sense. A govt that attacks its people on the basis of corruption is no govt of the people.

Invalidating notes will also get at undeclared cash but its a side effect. Nobody i've come across say it was effective at dealing with black money because it isn't.

But as a way to tackle counterfeit money ? you will buy some time there isn't it to avert an attack. No money, no attack.

Is this the truth ? i don't know. But its the more plausible of reasons given to date.
 

6pack

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I think the BJP wants to do something good but end up making the situation even worse. Their lack of governance shows a lot. These guys are made up of members who run from party to party after losing elections or were booted out due to some scam or another. Even if lets say they wanted to put an end to black money, any sane person would know its not possible till people themselves do it. And for people to do it, we should be like the many asian countries where the motherland comes first.

Can we behave like the Chinese or Japanese? If China tells their people to not buy stuff from CocaCola or some brand, most of the people wont buy. Just look at the way the coronavirus situation is being taken care of. Entire cities are under lock down and sitting at home - hungry and thirsty. They obey their govt blindly since its been hammered into them from childhood. Here, people will go to office in crowded trains and buses, and roam the streets and sneeze at others to spread the disease even more. No Indian city could by itself go voluntarily under lockdown. We would need to bring out the army and shoot at people.

Counterfeit currency is an unending problem to a lot of countries. I doubt demo or changing the design again and again will make any difference. It will probably end up confusing people into taking old fake currency thinking its real too. There's no fool proof way to tackle this. Bad actors can easily put a lot of money into hacking security or even steal stuff to make fake currency. It's just a matter of bribing the correct person or throwing enough money at the problem.
 

blr_p

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Counterfeit currency is an unending problem to a lot of countries. I doubt demo or changing the design again and again will make any difference. It will probably end up confusing people into taking old fake currency thinking its real too. There's no fool proof way to tackle this. Bad actors can easily put a lot of money into hacking security or even steal stuff to make fake currency. It's just a matter of bribing the correct person or throwing enough money at the problem.
Competing ministries try to get the message out. Saying black money just confuses everything. If we say counterfeit currency it becomes more clear.

If they gave the real reason they would have burned their sources. Still its clear from your post that i highlighted & LN that you both had some indication that this was the reason but discounted it. I did as well because no one articulated a persuasive case at the time. I'm more at ease with this policy now that the security prism was mentioned. From that prism the govt will see the move as a success but with collateral damage.

The previous notes were in circulation for over twenty years.Plenty of time for the Paks to duplicate them flawlessly. I remember in 2005 they introduced security thread. Was listening to a talk by an ex-DGP from Kerela and he mentioned two container loads full of Rs.1000 notes had arrived in Kochi. How many thousand or lakh crores is that ? what effect will introducing them into a local economy and beyond have. How many more of those containers made it through. Something had to be done.

We will learn how long it takes to duplicate the new notes. They don't seem too difficult to copy i would think. It's bought us a few years. And then the cycle will repeat.

There are plastic notes available but they will cost more to procure than paper. Very difficult to counterfeit. Canadian currency feels so odd compared to paper.

For all the talk about online banking there are limits to that way of transacting and quite frankly i prefer to deal with currency. I can settle a bill faster paying in cash than it takes for a card to verify with the bank and that is assuming their server isn't overloaded :)
 
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Crapmypants

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We will learn how long it takes to duplicate the new notes. They don't seem too difficult to copy i would think. It's bought us a few years. And then the cycle will repeat.
It seems they already have:

If security was the primary purpose then Modi is not one to shy away from boasting.

The more likely theory is that 4 states including UP were going to the polls. Ensuring that the state with the most number of seats (in LS) in went to the bjp meant not only did they have to outspend their rivals but also cut their money supply as well.

No political party is clean when it comes to undeclared cash but this move gave the ruling party a clear monetary advantage just before 4 state elections.
 
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psyph3r

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blr_p

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It seems they already have:
This article is from Feb 2017. Key here is can the Paks generate large quantities of consistently high quality so as to be indistinguishable from the genuine item.

Needs to be at the thousands/lakh crores level to have an effect. Not tens and hundreds of crores.

The govt announced some time last year they will not be printing any new Rs.2000 notes. The note remains legal tender and it will eventually dry up. This means the Paks need to make Rs.500 notes. And have to produce four times more.

If security was the primary purpose then Modi is not one to shy away from boasting.
See, the thing is they did but it got swamped with this 'black money' rhetoric. Everybody latched on to that and that was the dominant story.

The more likely theory is that 4 states including UP were going to the polls. Ensuring that the state with the most number of seats (in LS) in went to the bjp meant not only did they have to outspend their rivals but also cut their money supply as well.

No political party is clean when it comes to undeclared cash but this move gave the ruling party a clear monetary advantage just before 4 state elections.
Sounds like the opposition's view. I'm trying to source my opinions from the ruling govt. What were they thinking, they are the ones that enacted this policy
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Even if lets say they wanted to put an end to black money, any sane person would know its not possible till people themselves do it. And for people to do it, we should be like the many asian countries where the motherland comes first.
Not possible to get rid of black money. It's like this holy grail everybody wants to reach. Forget it.

There's no fool proof way to tackle this. Bad actors can easily put a lot of money into hacking security or even steal stuff to make fake currency. It's just a matter of bribing the correct person or throwing enough money at the problem.
Set the expectations lower than 100% and perfect. If you can get 50% out that's still something.

As the economy grows the problem for the Paks gets harder. They need ever more notes. So it gets harder for them as well.
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But but but Mani and Rishabh and some guy in his bedroom said that the ruling party is playing 4D chess moves against Pakistan :p
This govt has enacted policy to deal with the problems the Paks generate and not merely manage them.

Modiji also decided to punish the CCP for their adventures in Doklam by ordering the NIV in Pune to develop and release the Coronavirus in Wuhan so that companies move their manufacturing to India. He intentionally behaves like an idiot so that the global community doesn't suspect him.
What ?
 
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chiron

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India has a big informal economy and vast majority of small businesses and daily wage workers who sustained the country by their sweat have what is called black money.