This video gives good overview of China's grand plans and ambitions, its quite crazy to watch on what the future holds....
It's very a general overview. After following their project for over a year i'm left with just one conclusion that any strategic motives are exaggerated and untenable meaning it will mostly be for trade as they've always maintained.
In short :-
China is literally encircling India by forging business and military partnerships with smaller countries in the Asian Subcontinent and beyond. They are everywhere and it's very clear that they aren't interested in forming similar relationships with India for obvious reasons.
The business side yes, so this means influence. So the neighbours start demanding we offer matching bids which we don't have to to maintain influence. I'd argue China is very interested in investing in India. Most interested in getting us on board their BRI. But one bania vs another bania isn't working
The question is what are their terms. The Japanese have committed to investing $30+ billion at fractions of a percent in interest and open terms. The Chinese are offering loans at 2.5% in the neighbourhood. Increasingly i find those terms aren't disclosed leading to all sorts of conspiracy theories and demands by people for more transparency. The Pak FinMin has a section where they try to counter some of the scare mongering that goes on in their press mostly due to poor research or misunderstanding. Course people say this is just govt propaganda but i don't entirely buy that line because what are the Paks going to do otherwise if they refuse the Chinese. And Paks have refused a few times because terms weren't agreeable.
The Japanese have been in this business since the 50s. No controversies. Another constraint is the Chinese want complete control over materials and labour. Chinese banks loan so that only chinese companies & labour benefit for the sole purpose to sell chinese goods. Does not help local industry much because they can't be used. It's not an enabling project in that sense more of a China exclusive only since they are the financiers. Only China is allowed to build so China can sell more. The Japanese have offered projects to Pakistan but to my surprise were turned down. This implies there is some sort of non-compete at play. China & Japan don't want to be played off each other. So pick one sponsor but not both perhaps.
They've taken over the ports in Hambanthota and Karachi on 99 year leases, after both SL and Pak couldn't pay China back for building and maintaining them. This is slowly happening in every country China is engaging with in South East Asia, the Gulf and Africa and beyond.
Gwadar is forty years. It's unclear what exactly China gets from a 99 yr lease. But i will tell you when the deal was struck SL was in the international doghouse after finishing off the LTTE. Where was Rajapaksa to get loans from ? only the chinese and he had to swallow what ever they demanded. In fact he offered Hamabantota to us first but we refused because there was no commercial potential whatsoever. So in the video you will notice its people in a jam or autocrats that accept Chinese terms that literally saddle the country in debt for their own personal gains. This means any BRI project is going to get looked at very closely by the opposition here and allegations of corruption are going to be the first thing they will say
After the recent Malaysian election the new guy there has said he would review existing projects there for viability and even renegotiate terms. Chinese are being like money lenders here
It's only a matter of time before China's brand new Aircraft carriers, destroyers and submarine fleet sail out in the Indian Ocean and dock at these ports, which just happen to be outside India's territorial waters.
heh, first let them graduate two squadrons of pilots that can land on an aircraft carrier. Also managing aircraft carriers isn't easy, takes time and blood. We've had carriers since the 60s. The Chinese got their first like yesterday. Then how well can their carriers withstand attacks or are they death traps. They are all untested. Subs is something we have to watch for, this is a better cheaper plan for them especially if they can take out more expensive targets. But these will be tracked and locations known and shared between friendly countries. If you notice we are fast becoming friends with countries that matter in this regard and this includes information sharing like if they see any subs pass by. We even do exercises but they are at a basic level. More like meet ups than actually training to fight China
The one thing you cannot do is make a numbers comparison. China has more because their needs are more it does not mean they can throw everything at us and leave their other flanks undefended. The further out they are the more vulnerable they become.
China's biggest problem is geography. On land and its even worse at sea. Supplying all these ports will be next to impossible in a conflict which makes them useless in war time. They will be more useful if China can create alliances. But they have none. There is no alliance even with NK & the Paks. China has few friends. So in short a lot of things have to happen before all you said becomes a factor to consider. For now its a load of hot air and future promises. Fear sells, a lot of publications like to publish these scary stories, the chinese are coming, the chinese are coming, watch out !!!
They literally claim the entire archipelago of the south china sea islands, which are way outside China's territorial waters.
They have already built naval bases, missile silos, garrisons and fuel depots with huge runways on it . It's in the middle of the most vital trade/shipping routes in the world. The US has been conducting aerial reconnaissance over these islands for a long time now, they keep getting warned by the Chinese. Make no mistake, there will be confrontation in the future between US and China over the disputed islands.
Key point to remember is the Chinese cannot do in the Indian ocean what they are doing in the south china sea. They cannot start any trouble here just as we cannot in their back yard.
Nobody is getting into any war over a bunch of rocks. The USN can squeeze them very effectively by blocking choke points where China does trade or fuel. Geography remember. The USN has allies as well. So the Chinese aren't going to start anything that escalates. Their plan is to hit below thresholds and once threshold are reached meaning you actually stand up to the buggers like we did last June or the Vietnamese back in 2014, then they back off.
The Americans do not choose sides when it comes to territorial disputes as they have no interest in being embroiled in other people's affairs. This lack of interest is perceived sometimes as not being supportive to smaller powers which plays into the US are a declining power narrative. They are not. Their main goal is to ensure freedom of navigation and this continues as usual. The last two presidents had to face a China test, few months after they enter office there will be some naval incident, Bush had his test and so did Obama. Funny thing is Trump has turned the tables on them right from the start so his China test is still pending. I think they are afraid to test him
How all this plays out in the near future is anyone's guess....
Nothing much to worry about for the next thirty years, after that i don't know. To handle China we have to grow more than is the case currently. 7% isn't enough, we need to be at 10% and remain there for a couple of decades. how to do that. Subramaniam swamy had something interesting to say here, when it comes to economics i tend to listen to the guy because he actually has a PhD in the subject
Growth = investment / capital efficiency
So to increase growth you can either increase investment and/or get a lower index for efficiency, lower here is actually better. Our efficiency stands at 4. The Japanese are at 3. So how quickly we can get to 3 will determine how well and fast we can grow. If we increase investment too at the same time it will be still faster
The Chinese do not see us as equals. They expect us to kowtow to them which will never happen because we believe we are exceptional. This is why how the relationship goes is critical. It can be win win since we actually have a lot in common given the large number of people we have. There is also lots to learn from them by this i mean learn from their mistakes instead of making them ourselves.
