Pulwama attack

Discussion in 'General Talk' started by swatkats, Feb 16, 2019.

  1. blr_p

    blr_p Well-Known Member

    lets go with what we know. As of Nov 2016 the satellite is offline according to the Euros and a parliament query several months later mentions it is missing..

    So let's cut to the chase. China took it out. With a missile. Thus is an extreme interpretation of "fragmentation event". They have the capability and possible as a warning to the surgical strike. Seems a bit heavy handed and very swift. Then ISRO does damage control saying the satellite has difficulties but is still present when it isn't etc etc.

    It's advised not to point a phone camera at a laser show as even a second or two direct exposure can damage the camera sensor. Here we are dealing with an item that is several hundred km's above earth and moving at several times faster than a speeding bullet. I think it would be very difficult to use a ground based laser to disable a satellite. The inverse square law makes it very difficult. Chinese don't have any known space weapons.

    Until such time i will go with the simplest explanation. How about a mechanical fault. That isn't unheard of.


    We lost a mirage in Banglore just few weeks before Balakote where it worked perfectly and all 6 returned safely.

    Mig 21's crash from time to time, known as flying coffins yet one went into a dog fight and took out a F16. They're calling it a world's first.
    #641 blr_p, Apr 1, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2019
  2. blr_p

    blr_p Well-Known Member

    I don't know about looking weak, Until we did the A_SAT test only three other powers had this capability.

    We could hammer China good on international fora for such behaviour and the Americans would be with us. China would be exposed & embarrassed to the world for no good reason. This is why i kinda doubt China has anything to do with it. Seems quite insane to take out a satellite in retaliation for a raid ?? and a good day after the raid. What purpose does that serve

    If its a military satellite and i suspect it isn't as it would not have a wiki page, would not be subject to a parliament enquiry nor would the Euros list it as offline.

    It's a mystery
    #642 blr_p, Apr 1, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2019
  3. adder

    adder Well-Known Member

    Thats plausible response from us, with domestic audience, enemy countries and media in mind.

    The speed is not a issue, having enough power for the beam to reach that far, blinding the sensor from ground has already been done by russia and usa. But deatroying the satellite with lase from ground seems impossible with current publicly avilable info, since apart from the power, you will also need to focus the beam at the high speed target for a long time.
    Both USA with a 747 based YAL-1 and Russia with A-60 based on IL76 , did test air borne laser platforms for taking down satellites and missiles both of which are now retired, atleast thats the case with USA. Russia on the other hand is continuing to develop it.

    Like, the chinese care. They repeatedly vetoed any resolutions against JeM, knowing well how the world would perceive its actions.
    Not sure american have the same leverge against china as they have against Russia due to the volume of trade with china. Now with trump in the office, I am not sure we can depend on USA.

    China increasingly doesn't give two hoots about international law like south china sea, building artifical islands with air field and Air defenses. They may have taken our satellite just as a weapons test but it did sends a message to india, which we now answered back.
    For eg. In syria one of the most sophisticated weapons are being tested for the very first time by the russians.
  4. blr_p

    blr_p Well-Known Member

    Can you share the source for this story ?
  5. blr_p

    blr_p Well-Known Member

    It's still difficult especially if the sensor works on multiple wavelengths. Sensors thirty years back were simpler. I remember those 747's with lasers. How effective they were i don't know. That was a period when a lot was hot air and trying to break the soviets.

    Chinese are big on saving face. Taking out a civilian satellite would have repercussions in the global community. JeM listing at the UN isn't over yet. The americans have said they will raise the matter via a resolution in the UNSC. This puts China on the spot as these resolutions are not closed door affairs where we never find out what the reasons for "technical hold" are and why they need more time. In any case that time is over and China has to decide. If they go against the listing and block it then the US will raise it at the UNSC and their hypocrisy will be exposed regarding the treatment of their own muslims over supporting a known terrorist. If they do vote for listing then they are letting the Paks down. It's lose lose for China.

    India has used the time raising the listing issue to build consensus. To bring the world around to our way of fighting terrorism. More times China blocks, more time we get to tell the world our side of the story. We have succeeded there as no govt condemned the Balakote strike. We isolated Pakistan well on that point.

    It is precisely the threat of trade war that gives the US leverage over China. Just see how they got them to work with North Korea. What China does is give local companies a monopoly, allow them to become national champions, then subsidises them, then turns them loose on the world where they can underbid everybody else and drive people out of business. There is no level playing field, and this is why Trump is trying to get them to reform. He is doing similar with us. Forcing reform that we should have done but have not.

    Now, as for Trump & Balakote. All i can say is his administrations handling has been outstanding. They worked a lot for us behind the scenes. They pressured the Paks to return the pilot. They pressured the Paks to back down. Pretty much all of Paks other friends did so too. No interference, no lectures, no telling us to exercise restraint instead its right to self defense. Awesome work by the Americans. And i should say the rest of the world too. The deal is world will help if we don't go in guns blazing. They are on our side. They are on our side because the world has realised things cannot continue as before.

    Eight years ago China wanted to turn the China seas into their seas. Eight years later they have failed in this mission. Canada, France, US, Australia sail their destroyers through on freedom of navigation missions and China can't do a thing about it. Taiwan isn't cowed, the Indonesians block them and the Philippinos could probably run the Chinese off if they wanted. Those islands they built in the sea are useless. It's a low cost way to have some presence without using ships. A learning experiment for the PLA.
    #644 blr_p, Apr 1, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2019
  6. adder

    adder Well-Known Member

    There is no public media source whether PM said its due to Risat-1 going down. But the media said the missile system was under development since 2016 after the government gave the go ahead, so if you put two and two together, the timeline makes sense.

    China has lot invested in Pak their OBR and the port they built. So I doubt they will vote any different.

    With a event like creating debris, you cannot point a finger directly. When we did the ASAT test the USAF sent their RC-135s to spy on us, even they can only detect debris and may not be able to detect the launch if its beyond their sensor range be it radar or space based sensors. So there is no conclusive proof to accuse them.

    Against failed beggar state like Pakistan sure. Against china its different ball game, unless we become a economic super power with matching military, against china other countries will not condemn or take our side, accept like another super power like the US.
    Even Russia won't help us because of chinese investments in russia.

    Not sure how much Trump had influence on Balakote. He would have been bragging a bit more if he had any active role to play, after the disappointing NK-USA summit. :)
    It's probably the combined pressure from Pentagon and other Middle east countries and Indian military retaliation threat.

    They have so far failed but the pace at which they are building ships and planes, is to challenge the US. In another 10 years they will be militarily be only second to the USA, perhaps second only in technology and may match them in sheer numbers. The gap between them and india is increasing by the day in their favour.

    We need 5th gen planes in another 10 years in operation. I don't see that happening.
    pratikb likes this.
  7. chetansha

    chetansha Well-Known Member

  8. pratikb

    pratikb Well-Known Member

    Jordan has sold its F16 to pakis.
    And I trust my Indian Armed forces than any crackpot on internet about what action militry has taken and what they have done.
    another part is American MIC is trying to sell us their F21 and what not.
    how will they continue the marketing?

    also exercise for you guys,

    who owns that media outlet FP?
    hint-someone who made his divorcee wife 3 rd or 4h richest after divorce.
    --- Post Merged, Apr 5, 2019 ---

    before you guys start asking for who when where.
  9. blr_p

    blr_p Well-Known Member

    IAF chief said Paks lost an F16. That is the official line. He would not say that unless he is confident. Just see how he spoke in that conference, relaxed & smiling. This FP report is not official. And at the end says US state dept, Indian & Pakistan embassies declined to comment. Why ?

    A good discussion of the events on Feb 27 in video below. I'd say the IAF did a great job. PAF intent was to attack Indian military installations but when they saw the opposition gave up and retreated. Paks shut their airspace down for a month because their SAMs cannot distinguish between friend & foe. They were rattled for over a month because they thought there would be more air strikes . Even shot down two of their own JF17's in a panic thinking they were Indian. Will Paks ever hear of them ? Of course not. Pak military isn't accountable to anyone. Unlike the Indian military that reports to the PM.

    This pattern of denial is nothing new. We saw it in '71 and Kargil where they refused to accept their dead. To this day they deny they support terrorism.

    Part you want to listen is 5:45 where former AOC-in-C states we have radar signatures and irrespective of what anyone says there can be no dispute an F16 went down.

    It sucks to lose an F16 to a Mig 21. If the PAF pilot was a coward then yes even a Rafale can be shot down by a Mig 21. We didn't get more PAF kills because there was no authorisation to cross the line a second time. Will that restriction be there in the future ? heh

    US wants to bury this story. Its bad for Lockheed Martin and their self esteem

    Abhi said he got the F16, the IAF has credited him with the kill. The IAF chief said we got the F16 a former AOC is backing him.

    End of story
    #648 blr_p, Apr 5, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2019
  10. adder

    adder Well-Known Member

    The article from FP on 27th Feb itself failed to mention F16 being down, they where instead saying Vintage Soviet era plane costed the IAF. So you already see their narrative. In the US the military industrial complex(MIL) is powerful, they control the information and the narrative. Even after several Gun massacre, no incumbent US government or congress could stop sale of assault rifles.

    Also one can already see how the US media credibilty took a hit in US elections. With their own president being the enemy no 1 for them. The events on feb 27 is not just india vs pakistan, it's also USA vs Russia because of the weapon systems used. US media is anti russia. So now you have the Media and Us captial hill under the payroll of the MIL and also the media Anti-russia, Anti- Conservative,Left wing nut job reporters. Let's not forget the deep state in the USA, which has the true power, they will never allow any country to challenge them militarily be it in power projections, Military exports. Or even economically.
    I bet they will turn on their own allies in Europe, if say the dollar currency is challenged.

    A vintage Mig21 taking down a F16= US exports will be hurt. In syria they didn't even acknowledge that not even one of the 100 cruise/air to ground missiles could have been downed by modern Russian made air defenses, despite the fact that Russia showed missiles riddled with AA cannon holes. Yet USA are threatening with sanctions for countries that purchase Russian weapons.

    The usa has no control or cannot do jack shit about the used F16 planes bought from Jordan. So they cannot count those Ex Jordanian F16.

    In hose videos of aircrafts going down, one could clearly hear the two pops, consistent with a twinseat aircraft ejecting. You also have videos of two aircrafts going down, In one video you have a aircraft burning with a long smoke trail. In another video of a different sircraft you jus t have the smoke of missile impact and ejection, no continous smoke trail of this aircraft.

    So we know two jets where shot and one of which is a twin seater.The only twin seaters that where air borne that day are the F16 and the Su30. We cannot hide a SU30 crash even if we wanted to, it's a huge plane and there would have been videos of it, everyone has a phone. So that leaves us only the F16 twin seat version.

    You must have seen those videos of Pak army hurrily taking away some parts like drop tank, a part of aircraft skin, Which the IAF has said doesn't belong to any of it's plane models in inventory. Yet the Pakistan left the Mig21 wreckage lying in the same spot for several days.
    #649 adder, Apr 5, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2019
    blr_p likes this.
  11. blr_p

    blr_p Well-Known Member

    And that is where the Paks will have to get their F16's from now on. Second hand market.

    I sense this FP article is just a face saver for the Paks. Reality is US will cut them off from military sales fr breaking terms of use. Behind closed doors the tone will be different once Indians can show which aircraft crossed the LC clearly the F16s were the vanguard of the fleet in an offensive role breaking terms of use as well as the F16 going down.
    --- Post Merged, Apr 6, 2019 ---
    Or the replacement that must have arrived shortly after to make the count work ?

    They had a month to get the replacement

    This is the thought i got from your comment.
    --- Post Merged, Apr 6, 2019 ---
    Russia deals to date are S400, 4 stealth grigorov class frigates, Ak203 rifles along with the production line & an akula class SSN

    To counter CAATSA we are buying from the Americans as well. Recently the 24 MH60 choppers, earlier P9 Poseidons, M777 Howitzers, 24 Apaches.

    All G to G. Opposition isn't going to even bother looking for a scandal.

    We've already got Americans to exempt Chabahar port from the Iran sanctions

    One provocative remark i heard recently is Modi is doing the same as nehru in being non-aligned and meaning it this time. Earlier we'd say not aligned but still side with the soviets against the Americans. This time its evenly balanced.
    #650 blr_p, Apr 6, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2019
  12. adder

    adder Well-Known Member

    The flight radar website did show cargo planes coming from various MEA countries, despite the air space ban.
    More and more countries will be replacing the F-16, so even if US stop spares they can get a ton of spares from used planes, not to mention the cheaper way to increase their numbers.

    We should probably buy those used planes just to starve them off and also use those planes for adversary training.

    The usa also has several hundred f16 in storage, some of them are being brought back for converting them in to drones. They could also use them as decoys in a air to air battle either to draw the enemy away or to make the enemy use up its air to air missiles.
  13. adder

    adder Well-Known Member

    India getting the S400 means we won't be getting the F35 or even some stealthy UCAV from the US.

    The only other potential big ticket sale from USA is the F/A-18. If we get this, the engines will have a lot of comman parts with the LCA mk2 and the Indian navy also could opt for this. But after the 27th feb incident, this is less likely for air force.

    Rafale with Meteor for both navy and air force, will be game changing. May be to balance it out, the navy may go for the F/A18 and the air force go in for more Rafale with a few SU57 to keep the russians happy, more so if the AMCA gets delayed beyond 2030.

    The paks in a decade will beg the cheens for J31, we should carefully choose a fifth generation plane that is superior, even if it means no make in india planes.
    pratikb likes this.
  14. blr_p

    blr_p Well-Known Member

    It isn't official. That means US isn't saying it. It's two unofficial, unamed 'senior defense officials'

    THIS is the original source

    As expected we totally trashed this report

    IAF refutes US journal report that Pakistan didn't lose any F-16

    That's from the IAF. None of this was necessary for me as i trusted them implicitly from day 1

    I have this theory that the US let us have our way now they are trying to help the Paks save face. Works to defuse the situation.

    The earlier reports about missing the targets by some Aussie firm was a complete joke and so is this FP piece.
    #653 blr_p, Apr 6, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2019
  15. adder

    adder Well-Known Member

    In the US media, we saw how reliable the sources and officials have been in the past 3 years, which is made up from thin air. There is no accountability for them even Trump couldn't do anything about it, other then naming them fake news.

    That FP article added the Jordanian F16 part after many in Twitter questioned her about whether the count included the used F16 and just like that she said she has edited the article to include the Jordanian planes. I mean common don't you think it would have be important to ignore it in the first place. She is just making thing up, with a big fat cheque from the MIL.
    --- Post Merged, Apr 6, 2019 ---
    Now the US Department Of Defense or DOD spokeperson has denied that there was any sort of count of the Pak F-16.

    I guess now FP standard reply is going the be the usual BS i.e "we standy by our sources"
    #654 adder, Apr 6, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2019
    pratikb likes this.
  16. pratikb

    pratikb Well-Known Member

  17. fractal

    fractal Well-Known Member

    Make in India should be thought of as a long term building up of infrastructure and capabilities many of which are dual use. It may take many years but China will eventually surpass the US in technical competence. India should build up its own capabilities independently.
    #656 fractal, Apr 6, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2019
  18. blr_p

    blr_p Well-Known Member

    It showed me that our media wasn't as bad as i thought. We got to see how partisan US media is when dealing with a president that was anti-establishment and media is establishment.

    Let's look at the titles

    US physically counts Pakistan's F-16 planes, says all F-16s 'present and accounted for': Report

    Did India Shoot Down a Pakistani Jet? U.S. Count Says No.

    Do you find any difference in those two titles ? The NL one to me sounds more official but you only realise later that it isn't.

    NL further says..
    In the scheme of events that unfolded, both the parties were blamed of spreading disinformation, while newsrooms were converted into war rooms.
    I don't recall anyone accusing us of spreading disinformation. NYT seemed to play it down and reports from other sources refuting our claims which turned out themselves to be disinformation.

    The Indian story has remained the same right from the start. There was a flutter about casualty numbers. Well those numbers came from intel reports. There were mobile connections active before the strike. After the strike they go quiet. What happened ? did the militants turn off their phones suddenly or were they dead. If they were civilians you'd expect mobile activity to increase after an attack. But there they just went dead. Nobody in the vicinity.

    This is all i found and everything else is referring to it

    I find this one less problematic but we still have an unnamed spokesman from the DoD refuting the report. It further says it comes from a statement. How was this statement obtained ? Written or answer to a question in a press briefing. Which one. I'd have liked to have heard it. The HT article does not mention at what venue and at what meeting this answer was given.
    #657 blr_p, Apr 6, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2019
  19. adder

    adder Well-Known Member

    Pentagon I think will just push this under the rug but you can bet someone will ask them again in an actual press conference, for which there will be transcripts. US has a lot at stake for both the MIL and India relations. They see no future exports to pakistan and to counter China they need India. So as far as the public is concerned they will just deny a count took place and leave it at that.
  20. blr_p

    blr_p Well-Known Member

    So no F16 went down and no count was made. Both sides happy now :D
  21. blr_p

    blr_p Well-Known Member

    Yes they do and have. They blocked Jordan from selling old F16's to Pakistan. Listen to the former Pak Def minister from Oct 2017. Nothing has changed since.

    So they have control over second hand arms as well as spare parts. Well. that is provided the sellers do not want to endanger their own supply of american arms which i'm assuming all will comply

    I have no idea where she got that as the Paks never got those F16's from Jordan

    The FP article says
    Of Pakistan’s 76 F-16s, 13 were acquired from Jordan, according to fleet data provided to FP by Aviation Week & Space Technology.

    Really ? heh

    Ms Seligman is counting non existent jets :D
    #660 blr_p, Apr 7, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2019

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