Adani group, an Evil corp?

Anybody who believes in Adani should just put their life savings in his stocks and wait it out. Every other discussion is useless.
Its crazy how the narrative around this has been shifted to nationalism and conspiracy theories - but - no matter how much confidence anyone has both pro or against, do not put too much risk in any single view. Its common sense but sometimes people can do crazy things. Even if it works, one day another trade/investment wont. And its hard to not get overconfident after making a killing.
 
"Well well well, looks like Adani shares are falling faster than a clumsy toddler learning to walk! And what's the deal with those anti-China, pro-India geopolitical master buyers? Are they too busy sipping chai and watching cricket to notice the stock market? Come on, guys, get your act together and show those shares some love! Or else, Adani might start selling pakoras instead of power." - ChatGPT

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"Well well well, looks like Adani shares are falling faster than a clumsy toddler learning to walk! And what's the deal with those anti-China, pro-India geopolitical master buyers? Are they too busy sipping chai and watching cricket to notice the stock market? Come on, guys, get your act together and show those shares some love! Or else, Adani might start selling pakoras instead of power." - ChatGPT

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And many of these ****ers are freshly getting added to market indices. SMH.
 
The Chinese are the ones doing these proxy attacks. They are the ones with the most to lose with a rising India. They are the ones that would want to disrupt a resilient supply chain that works around them. They are the competition.
Dont the Chinese already own ports in Greece, Hungary, Iran, Pakistan, Sri Lanka etc? They have a rail line running right to their ports in Europe. They are building another rail line to gwadar port in Pakistan so their shipping times reduce even more. Even if india got chabahar, I'm sure it's no big loss to them. They already won imo, don't know why you think they have anything to lose. Also India has a lot of catching up to do wrt China. India can't just become another Shenzhen overnight with our current MP's who only think short term plans till they are in power. Even in the year 2100, i doubt India will be like China of 2020. It's an impossible task for our country.
And many of these ****ers are freshly getting added to market indices. SMH.
Privatise profits and socialize the losses.
 
Dont the Chinese already own ports in Greece, Hungary, Iran, Pakistan, Sri Lanka etc? They have a rail line running right to their ports in Europe. They are building another rail line to gwadar port in Pakistan so their shipping times reduce even more. Even if india got chabahar, I'm sure it's no big loss to them. They already won imo, don't know why you think they have anything to lose. Also India has a lot of catching up to do wrt China. India can't just become another Shenzhen overnight with our current MP's who only think short term plans till they are in power. Even in the year 2100, i doubt India will be like China of 2020. It's an impossible task for our country.

Privatise profits and socialize the losses.

Its absolutely necessary for govt. to provide geopolitical backing to our conglomerates on the international stage to counter China.
Just notice how US govt. backed up TSMC and Intel for chip fabs recently .

But the problem is putting all your eggs in one basket as well as using public money e.g. LIC/SBI to prop them up.

Another bigger possible long-term problem I see is how the regulators handle this issue.
If they go "Sab Changa Si" that will erode trust in our market massively among large foreign investors and as you know we need that money if we want to catch up with China.

One good analogy I came across-
 
Dont the Chinese already own ports in Greece, Hungary, Iran, Pakistan, Sri Lanka etc? They have a rail line running right to their ports in Europe. They are building another rail line to gwadar port in Pakistan so their shipping times reduce even more. Even if india got chabahar, I'm sure it's no big loss to them. They already won imo, don't know why you think they have anything to lose. Also India has a lot of catching up to do wrt China. India can't just become another Shenzhen overnight with our current MP's who only think short term plans till they are in power. Even in the year 2100, i doubt India will be like China of 2020. It's an impossible task for our country.
Modi's vision for a resilient supply chain will take time. Maybe a decade. He'll still be in power to see it through. The Russians will get the north south corridor done now that their gas no longer flows west it will go south and east.

The Chinese were supposed to get old in 2030, the clocks worked faster and they're there today. Kinda explains why they've got so antsy. India gets old in 2070. Lots of growth ahead for us.

China's peaked already. The China of today is not like that of pre-covid. They've lost the trust of the world. Companies are moving out and they are trying to stem the loss. China is not going to grow unopposed anymore. See the tensions they have with the US already. Pre-covid people were saying China will overtake the US economy. It will never happen now.

Who believes in their GDP anymore? If it was 18tr. I'd estimate it's no more than 12tr today. They inflated their figures by 2% for the last 9 years. Then they had a real estate crash. 30% of their GDP is tied into real estate and it's lost 40%. So let's take off another 5-10% more. And you get -30%. The real estate thing was a massive Ponzi scheme with govt involved until the bubble burst.

I suspected something was up when both bought 20% of their share of Russian oil. We bought 1m barrels. The Chinese only amounted to 2m. Why so little if their economy is supposed to be more than five times larger? only if it is no longer five times larger.

They will have to grow at 5% each year for the next six just to recover to where they were pre-covid. And I don't think they can do it. We're slated to grow for the rest of the decade.

Who's ahead of us? Germany & Japan. Both were rebuilt after WW2, and peace dividend for 70 years. You get to grow under those circumstances. Then there is China which teamed up with the US, becomes P5 member and got propped up by them with the most favoured trading status because the Americans foolishly believed the CCP would become their allies. Didn't work out. Forty-year peace dividend. So the next three were built by the US.

Who helped India? nobody. Not the west. For all their homilies about human rights and democracy, the West supported a military dictatorship and an autocratic communist regime. The post-WW2 order did not care for our territorial sovereignty. We needed economic programs for which there were few takers, only Germany & Russia stepped up. Then we get told in '67 we won't be able to have any nuclear weapons which we resolved. Thirty years of tech sanctions for that. So we could not get onto the manufacturing bus that east Asia started. We inherited two adversaries at independence and had to fight them. We still grew and here we are today. On our own strength. So India's growth is unstoppable. How many Indians realise what we've had to fight through and appreciate what we achieved?

With the Ukraine conflict, Germany gets deindustrialised. We will overtake them in 2027 rather than 2030. Japan isn't growing much, they will get left behind. We are $10tr by 2035
 
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> The Chinese were supposed to get old in 2030, the clocks worked faster and they're there today.

Difficult to trust statistics from China. They way they enforced one child policy, they may enforce 2 child policy. Or as seen in random, discover few million people who were not in their statistical records.

Moreover, they have capability to automatize industrial processes in massive scale, which is already proven. Can be used to outplay any emerging entity unless artificial restrictions like trade sanctions, ban on technology transfer, etc. are forced on.
 
> The Chinese were supposed to get old in 2030, the clocks worked faster and they're there today.

Difficult to trust statistics from China. They way they enforced one child policy, they may enforce 2 child policy.
Already allowed two child policy back in 2016. Problem? not too many takers because it's expensive to bring up two kids in China. So their replacement rate is negative as many couples prefer not to have kids.

Or as seen in random, discover few million people who were not in their statistical records.
I think the opposite is the case. There was a database hack some time back and they found only a billion people in it. Children included. So their population is less than ours presently.
Moreover, they have capability to automatize industrial processes in massive scale, which is already proven. Can be used to outplay any emerging entity unless artificial restrictions like trade sanctions, ban on technology transfer, etc. are forced on.
Japan had that before yet chose to make in China. So labour costs play a role because not everything can be automated.
Am interested to know how the Americans got the Chinese to withdraw their bid :)
Found it. The Americans did not pressure the Chinese to withdraw their bid. They pressured the Israelis to reject it. Emiratis withdrew as well as local bidders. That's how Adani got it.


the U.S. administration offered to conduct a comprehensive security review of the Haifa port, due to Washington’s concern over a Chinese company’s involvement in the expansion of the port. The review would have been conducted by a team from the U.S. Coast Guard, but Israel declined the offer.

Chinese involvement in the port project has been harshly criticized for several years in Washington, particularly at the Pentagon. The American defense establishment is concerned that the Chinese activity at the port could provide an opening for technological surveillance of what goes on there, including collection of information about operations of the Israel Navy and joint operations with American ships. That prompted Washington to warn Israel against continuing to work with China on the project. At various meetings, Israeli officials were even told that the American Sixth Fleet would stop docking at Haifa port as a result of Chinese presence.
The same thing we don't want happening in Sri Lanka
 
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Cause you are all buying it with every spare nickel you can find. Right? lol
This might be in jest, but no sane person should ever do that. To flip the argument, are all adani naysayers putting ALL of their money to short right ? Adani has stock futures, you can short too. Put money where your mouth is then. You can buy 4090 many many times with your shorts, right ? Its just a few lakhs, that's small change.

Adani stocks went up like crazy, so going down like crazy. Irrespective of other reasoning and whatever their national importance its movement was smelly. Its possible that they went up due to low float and stock manipulation. Perhaps same thing happened with ramdev/ruchisoya too. We can only speculate. Next few years, if they can reduce their leverage, hopefully they will survive without too much damage. Meanwhile its very volatile right now so going up and down like crazy. This could be bottom, or it could crash further if they cannot service debt, who knows. Was great stock to trade this year, if you can manage risk.

Things can get emotional in these kinds of arguments, but lets not push anyone into harm's way by inducing reckless action.
 
Then there is China which teamed up with the US, becomes P5 member and got propped up by them with the most favoured trading status because the Americans foolishly believed the CCP would become their allies.
Any source that says China was propped up by US to become a miracle economy
 
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Any source that says China was propped up US to become a miracle economy
Surprised this isn't widely known. India & China had the same size economy in 1990. You think they grew on their own without any help :)

Most favoured trading nation status since 2001. Think about all the tech transfers these people agreed to twenty years prior and still do. You have to give them your IP to make anything there. They de-industrialised themselves over the decades by moving factories wholesale over there. Then the pandemic hit and they discovered they had no local capability to make PPE's and none was available because China took all the stock for domestic use. That was when they got a wake-up call to diversify their supply chains.
 
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Surprised this isn't widely known. India & China had the same size economy in 1990. You think they grew on their own without any help :)

Most favoured trading nation status since 2001.
One don't have to 'think'. Their policies that led to the growth is available easily now.

They were not propped up by giving the most favoured status. That too as late as 2001. Industries flocked to China because of their policies. It was not a political favoritism. Their policies were precisely made because west will not give any technology transfer to enable their industries like they did for other nations

That aside. Even politically to think that US will side with China is plain weird. Is this something popular among Americans to take credit for what the Chinese did?
 
One don't have to 'think'. Their policies that led to the growth is available easily now.

They were not propped up by giving the most favoured status. That too as late as 2001. Industries flocked to China because of their policies. It was not a political favoritism. Their policies were precisely made because west will not give any technology transfer to enable their industries like they did for other nations
The bottom line is Chinese didn't get there on their own. Yeah, their policies helped but its only part of the story. A small part.
That aside. Even politically to think that US will side with China is plain weird.
If there is money to be made then people do it. The amount of elite capture that has occurred here that allows the sensitive tech to assist an adversary isn't weird its downright moronic. If it wasn't for Trump throwing a big spanner into the works this nonsense would be continuing even today. Note that when the Americans figured they were getting skewered they now try to warn allies and partners not to fall into the same trap
Is this something popular among Americans to take credit for what the Chinese did?
Do you mean to say Germany, Japan & China didn't benefit from US help? We got hardly any from the US. I think that was quite well explained already.

China would not have got to where it was without US help. That is pretty obvious. You don't get to grow at such a rate on your own just through policy.

Have we got an FTA with the US? not yet. What does the most favoured trading nation status give you ? and to have that for twenty years

That their economy is no longer the size it is claimed to be is even better news for us.
 
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Ohh I think many people wouldn't know how WTO destroyed Indian industries too. The Chinese stuff was good enough and also cheaper, and eventually killed most of the industries in India. The Chinese government had an important role to play in that. They subsidize Chinese businesses, in a way allowing Chinese companies to sell below their manufacturing cost, thus wiping off existing competition.
 
Good lord.
It's a long topic. I can only give you a heads up

Check out a book called the 100yr Marathon by Mike Pilsbury

When I was studying for my PhD at Columbia University in 1967, my political science professors emphasized how the West and Japan had mistreated China, with the implication that my generation needed somehow to atone for this. Many of our textbooks contained similar arguments. This perspective—the desire to help China at all costs, the almost willful blindness to any actions that undercut our views of Chinese goodwill and victimhood—has colored the U.S. government’s approach to dealing with China. It has affected the advice that China experts offer to U.S. presidents and other leaders
When the US does it gets repeated by the rest
Ever since President Richard Nixon’s opening to China in 1971, U.S. policy toward the People’s Republic has largely been governed by those seeking “constructive engagement” with China to aid its rise. This policy has remained in effect, with only marginal changes, for decades, across eight U.S. presidential administrations. Democratic and Republican presidents have had different foreign policy visions, but all agreed on the importance of engaging with China and facilitating its rise.
They called it constructive engagement.
The constructive engagement crowd, populated by prominent academics, diplomats, and former presidents, has held significant sway over policymakers and journalists covering China. I should know—I was a member of this group for many decades. In fact, I was among the first people to provide intelligence to the White House favoring an overture to China, in 1969. For decades, I played a sometimes prominent role in urging administrations of both parties to provide China with technological and military assistance. I largely accepted the assumptions shared by America’s top diplomats and scholars, which were inculcated repeatedly in American strategic discussions, commentary, and media analysis. We believed that American aid to a fragile China whose leaders thought like us would help China become a democratic and peaceful power without ambitions of regional or even global dominance. We underestimated the influence of China’s hawks
In the 70s when this madness began the Chinese economy was 10% the size of the US. What could possibly go wrong with such a policy? :rolleyes:

Guess who the biggest collaborators are. Industry and wall street. The govt cannot control them and they want to make profits at any cost. It's insane.
 
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