“shots”? Is that how he wrote it or are his retweeters also linguistically challenged?
Unrest is more than 50 cities…and that’s a day old tweet.
^recent. Spreading further
What I don’t understand is why the internet is still working. So many clips uploaded from all over the country
The regime brings in these foreigners to do the dirty work because Iranian cops won’t do it. Syrians, Lebanese, Afghans, Paks etc
Usually internet goes down, many people get killed. Protests stops after
The Shah in exile thanks Trump for his support.
The photo included is when Nixon visited Iran. The bad luck for Iran is when they needed support they never got it from Democrat presidents. Carter, Obama or Biden.
Bear in mind the Shah never abdicated. When he went into exile in '79 his son was sworn in and continues as the Shah.
Will Bibi excuse Iran if some Palestinians be taken by them, like Somaliland deal ?
Hmm, airstrikes most likely
UK & France recently agreed to go after ISIS in Syria.
I read lots of US jets arriving in England
This is confirmation that a strike on Iran is coming. By the US alone (?)
A question of when, where & how
They are literally telling the ass holla to leave now or be captured
No
But I heard talk that thete were plans to resettle upto 50% Gazans elsewhere
Wasn’t there news about settling Gazans in Somaliland, even dtrumpf didn’t like it.
The internet has been down since 8pm last night in Iran
That was th time the Shah told people to come out to the streets and protest
8pm Thursday and 8pm Friday
Millions showed up all over
Usually when the net goes down the regime starts a brutal crackdown. They shoot people
There are reports of smuggled starlink sets but those are few in number
Trump thinks the deaths are from stampedes. It’s not. The regime is shooting people
Israel and USA warns Iran. Seems like any moment they might attack Iran.
Reza Palhavi is planning a return it seems but nothing clear yet .
500 dead but some news channel say 100
God knows the exact figure.
I like Iranian people…hope they find peace.
Tricky question. Attacks can weaken protests by triggering a rally round the flag.
Protests have to be indigenous and won by the people. Otherwise they are interpreted as foreign instigated.
The threat that US or Israel might attack seems good enough to hold the regime back. It’s a credible threat as already happened six months ago.
This is also tricky. See how you feel
The pahlavi supporters want US intervention and applauded Israeli action in Jun. Especially that Israeli strike that took out 8 IRGC commanders in one go.
The Iranian people would not be able to take out even one IRGC commander. So 8 is like some gift from heaven. Iran is occupied by foreigners who have imposed this islamic ideology.
Iranians are very nationalistic. What does it mean when you cheer foreign attacks on your country? That is the pro regime slam
The pahlavi supporters want a constitutional monarchy. A figure head that is above party politics is the best defense against one party dominating and hijacking the system.
Iran became a constitutional monarchy back in 1909. So they have a history of a working system.
They claim that there are a number of irgc/army that are willing to defect. The only way a change can happen is if the army can control the IRGC and the IRGC stands down. IRGC’s job is to defend the regime.
Who knows what will happen. But the rule is the best organised party wins. The crown prince seems to have an edge here.
Javed Shah means long live the king. You hear it in many videos
Real figures will be higher. When the net gets cut, when the phones stop working, when the lights don’t come on… that’s when the killing begins.
Yes, my support is a free Iran, an anti jihadi Iran will be good for the region and terrible for Pakistan.
If Khomeini led to rise of jihad radicalism then free Iran is the exact opposite. The effect could be bigger than the fall of the Berlin wall
Free Iran means free Lebanon because no funds for hezbollah
No funds for hamas, houthis or Iraqi militias.
Irani youth problems and Afghan youth problems are similar
Irani youth problems and Chinese youth problems are similar.
Irani youth problems and Pakistani youth problems are similar.
You see where I’m going…
^what does it mean?
Burn a mosque and chant Iran.
This is no longer about economics. It’s about ending the government.
Government and mullahs are the same. Attack the mosque is an attack on the government because in Iran the mosque is a tool of oppression.
The Iranians want a separation of religion and state. Religion will be a private affair and will never again be part of the state. The state will be secular
Well tbh, who doesnt?
During Reza Palhavi Shah’s time Iran had greatly supported Pakistan in most wars.
Diplomatically, militarically and economically. Even called India and aggressor and Kashmir as part of Pakistan.
Infact During Khomeni time relation with Pak has been mostly stagnant and not gone deeper.
At one point it actually looked might get bad they they seem to sorted out.
So not sure on what basis can you say new govt. Will be terrible for Pakistan.
Ok, you have jumped straight into Indian arguments which are rather surprising
Back then yes. ‘65 &’ 71. Both CENTO members and cold war US allies
But why will he support Pakistan now over India? No more CENTO. No more cold war.
Before Trump’s sanctions, 15% of Indian oil imports came from Iran. After sanctions are over we’re going back to Iran.
Gulf countries respect India for the same reason. They too sided with Pakistan. But there was this OIC meeting with Sushma where the Saudis told the Paks to get lost and they did just that. Boycott the OIC for the first time
Right now Iran oil is sanctioned but there is a black market where Pakistan gets oil across the border from iran bypassing US sanctions. That will stop after sanctions are removed from Iran. Price of oil will increase for Pakistan as it will for China.
Don’t forget of late both countries have also faced border tensions. Didn’t Pakistan attack Iran some time ago.
People said once US leaves Afghanistan then Pakistan will control Afghanistan and use Afghan jihadis in J&K. A taliban win was a Pak win.
Never happened. Instead Pakistan is facing border problems with Afghanistan that doesn’t recognise the Durand line and the Afghans are giving shelter to Baloch seperatists that have killed nearly a thousand Pak soldiers annually
In the past, cold war etc
Yes because Iran Saudi rivalry increases the Shia Sunni tensions in Pakistan. But both are jihadi states.
Because an anti jihadi Iran will not support Pak terrorism which is our major problem.
The Iranian people are fighting against a jihadi state? This little fact people are quiet about. That alone is enough for me to want a free Iran
A free Iran is a bigger problem for Beijing & Moscow than it is for New Delhi. No?
I would prefer Indian commentators make arguments based in the present instead of the past.
eg.
Usually I’m fine with AIM but not here. Agree only 1/3
An argument for status quo. We are not in control of events in Iran. Gulf countries and Israel are west allies too. We don’t have problems with them.
Why suddenly one more western ally is a problem ?
If Pahlavi wins we will be fine.
If MEK wins, the Iranian people will be screwed. Israel may not be better off. And we could be worse off.
The regime is trying to push Narges Mohammedi as opposition. A reformer. She is a leftie islamist. No good for anybody except the regime. She won a Nobel prize.
Pahlavi must win for there to be an improvement
–
This game of capture the flag started in London
Hilarious to see the Met police run after and failing to catch him
Reminds of Tibetan tactics to embarrass visiting Chinese dignitaries
Oslo copy cat
Helsinki follows
The Hague
Wellington, NZ
More embassies to come 
Pretty good for AI
Of course Iranians speak in Japanese too
Everything is possible
Khomeni secretly might have wished that India, his ancestor’s land be undisturbed…
Also, trade relations and India’s general neutral stance.
Palhavis are different.
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Khomeni tried to work a lot with India . Offered port, offered visa free travels( they removed it just few months ago) offered to sell oil in rupees or yuan at discount.
But It is India who played on backfoot due to US fears and to some extent Israel also.
India is a country that is always playing on backfoot.
Sometimes it works but most of the time it fails to grab opportunities to come out as big player.
That is why it will never play a big role in the world.
It will always remain a soft power.
China on the other hand plays on frontfoot…
It does not fear to show US the stick also when US is showing it’s danda.
India is always hiding it’s danda.
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From here
This is worth unpacking because history is repeating itself.
The Shah liberated women and paid to send university students to get an university education in the US, India elsewhere.
In the 70s the cool thing in college was communism and that brainwashed these kids. Corrupted them and indoctrinated them. Anti imperialism BS bla bla. They came back to Iran and joined the revolutionary forces.
The irony is the people the Shah helped, these university kids with state sponsorship ended up working against him. The Shah, a progressive was attacked for being a reactionary and conservative on issues whereas in reality it was his opponents that were the reactionaries.
The Shah wanted to bring Iran into the 20th century whereas Khomeini’s lot wanted to send Iran further backwards and succeeded in creating a 7th century Islamic hell hole.
What weakened the Shah’s support was land reform. Redistribution. So the land owning elite classes didn’t like him and joined with the clerics who also didn’t like him liberating women.
These days we see the same nonsense happening with western woke dumbass kids and pro Hamas and other jihadi support. Progressive & commies at work. Instead of imperialism they use oppressor/oppressed. This brainwashing of white, western kids waving jihadi flags and burning the American flag is what happened to Iranian kids in the 70s. Brainwashed into thinking communism is an amazing thing. And they went back to Iran and see what they did.
If this comnie jihadi nonsense isn’t eradicated then there will also be problems later in these western countries. See what happened to Iran and also see what it takes to get out of it.
Why are the Iranian people today not considered oppressed? Why the silence from these useless western social justice warriors. In the last two weeks I’ve seen real people risk their lives to be free. I’ve not seen a single keffiyeh and never heard god is great chanted even once in Iran. Yet that is literally the motto of the Islamic Republic. Instead of seeing the American flag being burnt I saw the flag of the Islamic republic being pulled down by Iranians and burnt. Surreal. Wild.
When you hear chants like not gaza, not Lebanon only Iran. It’s clear these are an Iran first crowd. The Islamic republic’s funding for jihad abroad depended on suppressing Iranian people.
Or chants like death to the three corrupts, Islamists, leftists and mujaheds. Very clear what they want and which direction things are headed.
Attached an article about Khomeini from the NYT back in the day. Written by some prof from Princeton. Obviously hasn’t done his homework because if he really read up on Khomeini’s work he’d have never supported him. Nobody would have.
Yet it was the governments of Carter, UK & France that supported Khomeini. They thought he was like an Iranian Gandhi. It really beggars belief that at the state level nobody also didn’t do their homework. Iran went from being a friend and ally into an enemy in short order. Major foreign policy blunder.
Something can happen in the next few days
I was thinking electronic warfare to inhibit communication between police and military. Jamming electronic & TV signals. Cyber attacks on irgc cyber units so they can’t shut down the internet.
Just bombing of various HQ’s seems pointless if only symbolic.
It was easier six months ago to see how things went. Iran sent missiles to Israel who responded with taking out radars and factories making propellant for missiles etc. Took out the top IRGC command. US hit nuclear sites.
This time it’s trickier to figure out what US /Israel can do from the air alone. Unless they can get Iran to lash out first.
The protests have all along been orchestrated by Mossad and CIA. It was and is never about the people.
Mossad and Cia has just fuel the already building up frustration .
First there was that girl ( who was killed just for not wearing hijab thing properly) , then the hard handed moral religious policing, then the economy suffering, then the war with neighbours and USA/Israel bombing , then again the econmics again going way worse than ever.
and ofcourse enemies will take advantage too.
This is nothing new anymore. The world is back to fighting the game of thrones.
and UN is finished.
So brace yourself for what is coming. India will also face such issues( if not at this scale to some extent )
Another Indian commentary
Let’s go..
Counters are straight forward
- Chahbahar. US sanctions have been a bigger obstacle to developing Chahbahar. On again, off again. Should those sanctions be lifted then why would any future Iranian government object? Also left out is why would the US need Pakistan if Iran was available? Meaning Pakistan’s strategic location becomes less of a selling point as the US has another option.
- An anti jihadi Iran, assuming that’s what we get will be opposed to a jihadi Pakistan. The Taliban will also not be in a good position in this case.
- Trade with Iran will continue as is and likely increase without US sanctions.
- China will benefit if Iran can produce more oil & gas for export. So will India. But not Russia as an isolated Iran and a weakened Iran competes less with Russian oil. China trade with Iran will certainly increase but then so will trade with all countries as Iran has been isolated from the world economy for decades
- Whatever happens we will have to deal with it as we have no say what happens there.
- Fragmentation won’t happen. Iran is not some post cold war state but one with a 2,500 year history as a nation. Most Indians unaware of Iranian history miss this point. Fragmentation is not going to happen. This means if Iran remains a coherent unit then the chaos spoken of won’t happen.
How India is affected depends on the outcome.
A Shah led Iran is a plus for India
A military irgc led dictatorship with clerics out becomes more complicated.
Deal worked out with Washington or not?
If not then things remain as is
A deal worked out with Washington means US sanctions lifted. All I said above applies minus the anti jihadi part. Iran essentially becomes led by the military like Pakistan. Its not clear why that is bad. Egypt too is led by the military. But this outcome will be terrible for the Iranian people as it could lead to more repression. Means a future uprising is on the cards
I’m finding the present Indian way of thinking about this issue inadequate. Need a way to think of outcomes
Was listening to a podcast and the framework was more interesting.
Think about the following transition outcome scenarios and how they can affect us
Iran as Russia think Iran gets a Putin
Iran as China
Iran as Pakistan think typical Pak coup
Iran as Turkey an Iranian Erdogan
Iran as North Korea
Iran with the Shah
Indian arguments for status quo in Iran are so lame and defeatist. Just because of this fear that what comes after could be worse.
Israel seems not afraid to topple the regime. You don’t think Israel would be a bigger target than India if things went south in a new Iran?
Also hypocritical, freedom is OK for Indians but not for Iranians?
In any case Iranians are not asking for our permission
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