No man, they don’t give a single sh*t, the countries involved are all multiple levels below them. But, it’s scurrying up time for countries involved though.
I remember discussing this threat with you earlier. So, here it is. Now that paste is out of the tube, let’s see how it goes.
The Islamic Republic is lying to its supporters in the hope of holding onto them. Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier has been sunk and over 500 Americans have lost their lives.
The supporters have been made to believe Iran is a super power so they are likely to believe the above. That upto now Islamic Republic has been holding back. They have plenty of next generation weapons to handle Americans.
These lies will be quickly exposed in the coming days & weeks. Defections will increase. Regime supporters will be less enthusiastic. In fact they will be demoralised when they understand they were lied to.
That is the tipping point people are hoping will happen. No civil war. At some point the realisation sets in. One country, one people.
It’s optimism. It’s hopeful. Until shown otherwise this is what should be aspired to.
Too many unknowns to consider.
It could be a bluff. What if it’s not. Can’t take the chance. Every gram of that enriched Ur must be accounted for. How to do that when it’s buried under a mountain.
How so?
We cannot arm any American ship. We are not a treaty ally so no armaments are stored with us.
Only food, fuel & repairs / maintenance.
By your argument, since we have similar access to American bases then so too are Indian flagged vessels legitimate as targets for the Islamic Republic.
Watch what we do if they attack an Indian flagged vessel 
Correct approach to take. Why hold back? Intent is clearly stated by the war secretary at the briefing.
Overwhelming force leads to a quicker surrender with least lives lost. Whether that happens I cannot say but I’m hopeful.
See, if they were wrangling with this dirty stuff for so long, they already might be having enough dough to cook. It was technically discussed to oblivion, but if they claim 11bombs, imagine them having 3 dirty bombs. Note this is being acknowledged by USA.
Otherwise, there is no need for this war. The eventuality is what matters Now..!
What we can do ? lolz.
Questions here: What would’ve been negative impact of an Iranian vessel near Indian shores during war time. What are the implications of a US attack in Sri Lankan waters, which is at tip of India. China servicing in SL, will that have an impact or baiting sense ? What about India’s own military control under it’s own nose under scrutiny. How will the debris effect us ?So many questions…
Why the redaction?
Because the area in which the Iranian ship was hit now becomes a war zone. A place from which future threats could emanate.
When we show unnecessary cruelty, even in a conflict, we evoke a similar response from the other side. The narrative built around any event in war is important in mitigating the number of enemy combatants created because of that event.
Felt the domestic commentary was unnecessary, should have edited out that part but ended up deleting it. Fixed it now.
No rally round the flag was seen for midnight hammer. Given the way Iranians are behaving with absolute gratitude & elation with each bomb dropping I’m confident it won’t happen.
You need to read up on the transition plan put forward by the Shah and his people at the Iran prosperity project and NUFDI. Too many people are trying to predict things without understanding that there will be no power vacuum. No civil war. I’ve had people be sceptical about these plans but there is only one name millions of Iranians are chanting.
I saw a graphic that said within the first week there were three goals. Territorial integrity. Relations with Israel. Ending the nuclear program.
Boots on the ground is an open and valid question. Can regime change be affected only by air. Yes, if intense enough and coordination on the ground. Examples are Serbia & Libya.
Israel would be the odd one out of the bunch and you can be sure the Saudis want an end to the Islamic Republic as well. The social aspects they will have to deal with. The Iranian state will control it’s oil. We are well past that question.
Both India & Russia do not want the US & China to get together. China won’t lose access to Iranian or, Venezuela oil. They will lose the heavy discounts which they will have to pay for. Trump is trying to isolate China by (if it works) getting Russia to the peace talks table.
Lower oil prices is a matter of supply & demand. More supply means better prices.
Iranian, Venezuelan & Russian oil on the market without sanctions. That’s the future.
The question you need to answer is when has US hegemony constrained us wrt to oil.
Trump said sanctions if you trade with Iran back in 2017. Sanctions if you develop ports. So Iraq, Saudis & the US pitched in since at the time 15% of our oil came from Iran
Sanctions if you trade with Venezuela. Same agenda. A drug mafia regime with it’s hands on the oil lever.
Sanctions for oil trade with Russia. Trying to pressure Putin to make peace with Ukraine.
In not one of the above three cases was India ever the primary target of the sanctions. We were the collateral damage.
I’ve stated before a clear US hegemony created a safe environment for oil trade out of the gulf. Who can replace the US there. It’s hoped that with a non belligerent Iran there will be less disturbance.
I will assume you are referring to Iran as the dominant power in the gulf. Tell me how a rising Iran delays our rise? A rising China couldn’t stop us.
In what way are we going to enter into a rivalry with Iran. Iran wants stability so it can sell oil & gas. We will become their second largest customer. That gives us leverage. Don’t we have anything to offer the Iranians in terms of trade & business. New Iran wants to engage with everyone. So do we.
A developing story which the Israelis are watching with a wary eye. An antagonist Turkey is the last thing they need. One that is somewhat aligned with Egypt is worse.
I think the Saudis & Turks are just playing off the Americans. Until recently China brokered a peace deal between the Saudis & Iran. That one didn’t age well.
Granted relations are fluid but I think with a new Iran we are making things more predictable & stable.
Pakistan is also supposed to come to the Saudis defense. Didn’t they sign some alliance pact recently. Where are they 
Can’t guarantee there won’t be chaos in Iran but a majority wants the mullas gone. The different factions will have to create a modus vivendi and build a new Iran. This will be a two year process. The Shah’s transition plan.
A stable & friendly Iran makes Pakistan less valuable to the US since there is an alternate route north.
As for that last part do remember that Taliban win = Pakistan win = India lose. Reality turned out opposite for Pakistan.
So let’s wait and see how this turns out. I guarantee you there is zero tolerance for any jihad in Iran because it was used to slaughter tens of thousands of unarmed Iranians. Jihadis are brought in when the locals don’t have the stomach to get the job done. A day of reckoning is coming soon where all these militias will be dealt with.
Something I notice with the diaspora is this strain & shame felt by being Iranian. Because Iranian means terrorist. And these diaspora people were the victims of terror. More than ten million had to leave. To then be associated with a regime they absolutely loathed is the Kafka-esque reality they went through. Multi generational trauma. It’s so sad to see and who would not want an end to this living hell for them. They are so defensive about this as well.
I’m not seeing any obvious downsides in what you wrote unless I’ve misunderstood anything.
Vacant property in Tehran development idea
Some pretty cool use of AI there
I love the essays on this thread.
Wonder what you guys do for living …
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The longer a campaign draws out the higher the civilian collateral - higher the rally around the flag. It is impossible to differentiate civilians from hostiles while conducting an air-only campaign.
There was no regime change via an air bombing campaign in Serbia, only a withdrawal from Kosovo. Libya became a failed state.
Israel has had to put boots on the ground for even a territory like Gaza, Iran is larger and has a more treacherous terrain.
Any oil under absolute US control is lost to China strategically, it can and will be eventually choked off at some point during the strategic competition.
India being able to buy oil only under US auspices is not a good thing for us.
Any single power dominating the Gulf is against Indian interests irrespective of whether it is China, US, Iran, KSA, Turkey or EU. Ideally we would want opposing forces to have presence in the region, peacefully, till we rise.
Unless India plans to remain poor in perpetuity we will eventually become a threat to the US, just like there is a strategic competition between China & the US today there will be one between India & the US, in a few decades, we need to shape our strategic environment from that long term perspective.
Sad to see another war started.
Here in Russia my friends telegram group has dead body counts update for both sides.(Ukraine /Russia war)
Absolutely sad and horrific feeling.
But these bully nation when did they cared about life of weaker nation.
I am not supporting Iran regime but came to know 155 children bombed by US/Israel.
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Modern warfare :
HOLY HELLLLLLL: Iran just took out a $1.1 billion radar at the most fortified US base in the Middle East with a single missile. THIS IS BAD!!! That radar was the backbone of ALL US missile defense in the Gulf. Every Patriot. Every THAAD. Now operating blind."
Allen further explained the asymmetric advantage Iran gained: “Qatar intercepted 101 missiles during this conflict. Two got through. One hit the only target that mattered. This is asymmetric warfare in one sentence: Iran has to succeed once. We have to be perfect every time. The US just promised Navy escorts will protect Gulf shipping lanes. But if we couldn’t protect a $1.1 billion radar inside our own base - What are those escorts actually guaranteeing? The petrodollar runs through a Strait we can no longer credibly protect. One missile just changed everything.”
It did not see that coming.
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Hmm
Can’t find any reference to this on any reputable news site.
“Guest Of India Struck In International Waters”: Iran On US Submarine Attack: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-israel-us-war-us-will-regret-this-iran-on-submarine-attack-2-000-miles-from-its-shores-11171036?pfrom=home-ndtv_topscroll
Iran launched a new wave of attacks Thursday morning at Israeli and American bases and threatened that the United States would “bitterly regret” torpedoing an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean.
‘Operational opportunity to strike Iran came up after PM Modi left’: Israel’s India envoy: 'Operational opportunity to strike Iran came up after PM Modi left': Israel's India envoy| India News
The joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran came not so long after Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded his two-day state visit to Israel.
‘Serious concern for India too’: Sri Lankan minister urges govts to ‘look seriously’ after US sinks Iranian warship in Indian Ocean: 'Serious concern for India too': Sri Lankan minister urges govts to 'look seriously' after US sinks Iranian warship in Indian Ocean
“This is something I believe the government of India and also the South Asian region has to come together and look at and take this particular incident very seriously,” he said.
US Sinking of Iranian Warship Piles Pressure on India’s Modi: Iran Vows to Avenge US Sinking of Warship in India's Backyard | Financial Post
The US sinking of an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka’s coast has unsettled India’s calibrated response to the war in the Middle East and raises questions over how New Delhi will respond to American military action so close to its shores.
Iran will target Israeli nuclear site if regime change is sought, Iranian official says: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-will-target-israeli-nuclear-site-if-regime-change-is-sought-iranian-2026-03-04/