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[TEUser2K1]

EU have weakened a lot these days in several ways.
Root cause for formation of EU itself was similar behavior from USA.

But USA know control everyone like how a puppet master play his puppets.
Even UN is a white elephant made of paper these days, hollow from within.

 

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EU have weakened a lot these days in several ways.

This happened because they went from EEC with more sovereignty to the EU where countries lost political AND financial sovereignty

In some ways, the UK was lucky as they never got into the Euro. They could not take the political directives and walked out. Which begs the question of why they joined in the first place. Here are a couple of hilarious takes . Quite instructive. Neither Britain nor India wants a dominant power in their region which matches US policy of no dominant power on either end of the Eurasian land mass.

Brussels is in fact doing its best to defend the indefensible and to make the unworkable work

That was said thirty years ago. Has anything really changed? As apt today as when it was said.

Root cause for formation of EU itself was similar behavior from USA.

I've always thought it was to prevent France & Germany from going to war again. If there are two monsters to the east and the west then it makes sense to form a collective. But they never asserted themselves. They always hinted at it but when it came time to walk the talk they did nothing. The Americans did the heavy lifting and still do. This lot was incapable of taking on Libya without the US. What hope do they have against Russia? Euros have a good reason to hate Russia because Russia kept them up at night for two centuries. The partition of India is in part a product of this paranoia on the part of the British. The peace dividend after the cold war ended was squandered. They could not bring themselves to sit down and work out a common security for Europe. So we ended up with a zero game where one side tries to be more secure at the expense of the other.

But USA know control everyone like how a puppet master play his puppets.

The USA controls when they are allowed to control. The Euros were willing. There was a speech by Biden from '97 at the second round of NATO expansion where he says the Euros are politically immature and need a guiding hand. Can you blame him ?

The problem with Europe is political instability or volatility. This leads to WW1 which then lays the ground for WW2 which then becomes the cold war. There was a brief cease-fire and the same nonsense restarted again.

Even UN is a white elephant made of paper these days, hollow from within.

If this is going to be an Asian century then these institutions are going to have to either reform or be replaced.

 

[TEUser2K1]

If USA know how to play everyone like puppets, there is never going to be an Asian century.
Rather, there will be Kargil like conflicts even in unexpected places forever.

The USA controls when they are allowed to control. The Euros were willing.
Yes, others let USA control them, because they are weak. USA will never let them be strong.

There was a speech by Biden from '97 at the second round of NATO expansion where he says the Euros are politically immature and need a guiding hand. Can you blame him ?
USA want everybody to be weak so that they can be that guiding hand.
Like creating a political Stockholm syndrome between countries.
There was a time when everybody thought USA is all live, let other live and thrive together. But the ugly reality differs a lot from created perspectives. No, it is not all coke, pepsi, rock n roll and pop music.
Can you blame them ? No, because you are weak and let USA guide you. But, why are you weak to start with ?

 

[JMP]

Can you blame them ? No, because you are weak and let USA guide you. But, why are you weak to start with ?

This won't change until countries stop exporting their best and brightest to the US. It is a vicious cycle, they are rich and use that wealth to extract resources from countries and keep them poor.
Until other countries realize they can trade between themselves without needing a western currency and that their people are resources too who must be asked to contribute for domestic progress, like Israel, nothing will change.

 

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OPEC+ decided to slash production by 2mn barrels. Biden & co tried to dissuade this move but failed.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/04/politics/white-house-lobby-opec-oil-production-cuts-gasoline-prices-midterms/index.html

Last month they cut production by 100k barrels so this is twenty times larger.

The White House asked Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to make the case personally to some Gulf state finance ministers, including from Kuwait and the UAE, and try to convince them that a production cut would be extremely damaging to the global economy. The US has argued that in the long-run a cut in oil production would create more downward pressure on prices – the opposite of what a significant cut would be designed to accomplish. Their logic is that “cutting right now would increase risks of inflation,” lead to higher interest rates and ultimately a greater risk of recession.

“There is great political risk to your reputation and relations with the United States and the west if you move forward,” the White House draft talking points suggested Yellen communicate to her foreign counterparts.

See the Brent price over the last few months



Heading down since June. With all this talk of a price cap, the producers have pre-emptively decided to reduce production.

Let's see where it stabilises.

 

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OPEC+ decided to slash production by 2mn barrels. Biden & co tried to dissuade this move but failed.

Let's see where it stabilises.

I am guessing Russian oil will get expensive, but will still be cheaper then the middle eastern oil.

Last month Russia was in second place for Indian market share. May be it will be at top, after the oil production is reduced. While in the EU and US, we may see a sri lanka type protests as winter sets in.

 

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If USA know how to play everyone like puppets, there is never going to be an Asian century.

That is a function of US power

End of WW2, the US makes up 50% of the world's GDP. Has a 6,000 ship navy
End of the cold war, the US makes up 30% of the world GDP, has a 3,000 ship navy
Today, the US makes up 17%? of the world's GDP and is struggling to get to 400 ship navy by the decade's end.

Their share of the world's GDP decreases as time goes on

Yes, others let USA control them, because they are weak. USA will never let them be strong.

The US wanted to prevent more countries from going nuclear. Allies were included under their nuclear umbrella and NPT for the rest.

USA want everybody to be weak so that they can be that guiding hand.
Like creating a political Stockholm syndrome between countries.

The US underwrote the peace in Europe, ME & far east since WW2. A retrenchment in any of those regions will create a vacuum and lead to chaos.

If you see the wars and numerous regime changes it's been about neutralising state threats in order to preserve larger stability. Right or wrong that was the plan.

Can you blame them ? No, because you are weak and let USA guide you. But, why are you weak to start with ?

Can't spend as much as they do on defence. And when asked still unwilling. Under Trump, there were noises in France & Germany that they would spend more since the US was becoming unreliable. All that talk disappeared after he left office. Numerous US presidents have asked the Euros to increase defence spending yet they dragged their feet. If you expect the US to come and defend you then you will have to do as the US says.

I am guessing Russian oil will get expensive, but will still be cheaper then the middle eastern oil.

Last month Russia was in second place for Indian market share. May be it will be at top, after the oil production is reduced. While in the EU and US, we may see a sri lanka type protests as winter sets in.

That is provided the Russians do not respond with a further production cut in response to this price cap on their oil. If they cut production then they sell less and the discounts offered will also reduce.

FT

Riyadh fears that Russian output could fall sharply later this year when western sanctions against the country’s oil exports tighten, and is keen to keep some spare production capacity in reserve, according to people familiar with Saudi Arabia’s thinking.

Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Nasser said current oil prices, which have fallen to less than $90 a barrel from a high of $139 earlier this year, reflected a market focused “on short-term economics rather than supply fundamentals”.

Under-investment meant that global spare capacity, defined as extra crude supply that could be brought online quickly in the event of unforeseen incidents, remained “extremely low” and would be “completely eroded” if China relaxed its long-running Covid-19 restrictions and began to consume more

Other OPEC members have not invested in creating spare capacity.

If China opens up, [the] economy starts improving or the aviation industry starts asking for more jet fuel, you will erode this spare capacity,” he said. “And when you erode that spare capacity the world should be worried. There will be no space for any hiccup — any interruption, any unforeseen events anywhere around the world.”

Saudi Aramco, which — buoyed by rising oil prices — overtook Apple this year as the world’s most valuable company, is one of the few producers investing in increasing output. The state-owned group is in the process of boosting its maximum production capacity from 12mn barrels a day to 13mn b/d by 2027. Nasser stressed that this decision had been taken in 2020 and that it would be extremely difficult for the rest of the industry to suddenly ramp up long-term supply, implying that the world was in for a prolonged period of high oil prices. “Even if we decide we are going to increase investment, it is going to be difficult; it will take a number of years.”

This is good news for American frackers. They will start up and supply will slowly increase

All this time the Saudis were trying to kill them by overproducing to keep the price low.

An op-ed type with words like axis, snub, 'attack on global economy', 'personal attack on Biden'...

The Saudi-Russian Oil Axis Snubs Biden With Production Cuts

OPEC+ is gambling with the global economy.

www.bloomberg.com

Coming four weeks before the US midterm elections, many in Washington took the unexpectedly large output cut as a personal attack on President Joseph Biden. The fact that OPEC+ hastily gathered in person in Vienna, rather than via video-conference as scheduled, reinforced that perception. The form of the meeting mattered as much as the substance.

The in-person meeting allowed Alexander Novak, the Russian deputy prime minister under US sanctions, to travel to Vienna. He took the occasion to warn that Russia will stop supplying any country that accepts the G7 oil price cap. The OPEC+ cuts make the threat easier to implement, and therefore more worrying.

India has not said what it will do about the price cap. They said they would study the proposal. I'm taking that as a polite no ?

The oil-output cut will have two major consequences. Economically, it will keep inflation elevated for longer, forcing the Federal Reserve and every other major central bank into even more restrictive monetary policies, increasing the odds of a global recession. Politically, it’s a boost for Russian President Vladimir Putin in two ways. It channels more money to the Kremlin, which is desperate for revenue to keep its war machine in Ukraine alive and buy local support for the faltering military campaign. And it signals that Riyadh is in the Russian camp, willing to publicly snub Washington. Others in the Middle East, Africa and Asia will feel more comfortable cozying up to Russia.

The US and its Western allies need to pay attention. For the first time in recent energy history, Washington, London, Paris and Berlin don’t have a single ally inside the OPEC+ group. During 1973-74, the White House could count on Iran, then still controlled by the Shah; in 1979, during the Islamic Revolution, Saudi Arabia was a helpful friend. In 1990, when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, both the Saudis and the Venezuelans came to the rescue. Even in 2003, when Washington went to war in Iraq, Saudi Arabia helped.

This week, Biden officials found their urgent calls to Riyadh, Kuwait City and Abu Dhabi went largely unanswered. OPEC+ is making a mistake, but Western governments need to rethink their energy policies, too. They should be boosting all of their domestic sources, encompassing oil, gas and nuclear but also extending to renewables including wind and solar.

 

[TEUser2K1]

Till the date US$ is world's reserve currency, their power will stay. And they will not easily let other currencies to take over. That is how others discover where the beacon of freedom and democracy originates.
With modern technology so much evolved, they don't need city sized ships to fight war and can save tons of resources by not wasting efforts to protect those ships in hostile environments.
As for nuclear power, don't think Russia is gaining much by saber-rattling ? Nuclear power just means traumatizing collateral damage all over the world, mostly attacker will be vaporized from earth.
As for USA's peace influence, it is evolving every single day and is showing. Isn't that how world ended up in this precarious situation.
Regime changes, etc. were good for USA of course. Ensures their ever guiding hands are omnipresent.
As for defense spending, when world is progressing ahead with less skirmishes, identity divisions, etc. it is not important. But such a situation will not be allowed to happen, then those 'ever guiding hands' will not have any work.
The moment frackers are up and running with initial bulk volumes, Saudi and OPEC will increase their crude output and ensure frackers lose.

 

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Till the date US$ is world's reserve currency, their power will stay. And they will not easily let other currencies to take over. That is how others discover where the beacon of freedom and democracy originates.

Whether they let others take over is separate. First, there must be willing contenders and there are none. The two contenders would be the euros & Chinese. The first requirement is currency has to be fully convertible. That rules out the Chinese since they are not willing despite the rhetoric. The Euros have had two decades now and while fully convertible isn't in contention. But bilateral currency swaps are possible which is this de-dollarisation process that has begun and will only increase.

With modern technology so much evolved, they don't need city sized ships to fight war and can save tons of resources by not wasting efforts to protect those ships in hostile environments.

The US is a sea-faring power. No ships mean no power projection. And if you see the reduction in the navy they have been reducing for the last few decades.

Modern tech does not do the fighting it needs a whole lot of support underneath. Look at the effects of cyber, drones, AI all these buzzwords in Ukraine. None were able to shape the battlefield. Only of use in peacetime or against smaller opponents.

As for nuclear power, don't think Russia is gaining much by saber-rattling ? Nuclear power just means traumatizing collateral damage all over the world, mostly attacker will be vaporized from earth.

It's called deterrence and it is working. It prevents the other things you mentioned. The news reports are wrongly saying escalating. It is not escalating. It is not sabre rattling. It is the same thing that he said at the start. Putin is only repeating it. Responsible thing for him to say considering the nutjobs in Washington. He is not bluffing.

Let me explain this so you get it once and for all.

US & Russian nuclear doctrine can prevent conventional conflict. Any country that has adequate supply of tactical nukes qualifies. Only these two do.
Indian & Chinese nuclear doctrine cannot prevent conventional conflcit. Only nuclear conflict. Because we don't have enough nukes and opted for VFM.

As for USA's peace influence, it is evolving every single day and is showing. Isn't that how world ended up in this precarious situation.
Regime changes, etc. were good for USA of course. Ensures their ever guiding hands are omnipresent.

These situations have occurred in the past. But this one is different with global implications.

As for defense spending, when world is progressing ahead with less skirmishes, identity divisions, etc. it is not important. But such a situation will not be allowed to happen, then those 'ever guiding hands' will not have any work.

Others will take their place. See Somali pirates and the multinational effort it took to handle that.

The moment frackers are up and running with initial bulk volumes, Saudi and OPEC will increase their crude output and ensure frackers lose.

I just remembered Biden does not like fracking because of his climate change agenda. So when he entered office he passed some regulations that limited fracking. He cancelled the Keystone pipeline with Canada. The same problem of fracking and climate change with the EU

What’s Next for Fracking Under Biden?

President-Elect Joe Biden has walked a fine line on fracking, seeking to allow the practice while proposing restrictions to limit its greenhouse gas emissions. How have other countries approached fra…

www.cfr.org

Trudeau conveys Keystone pipeline 'disappointment' to Biden

Despite the revoking of the Keystone XL permit, the Canadian PM hails "a new era" in bilateral ties.

www.bbc.com

Are they going to go against their beliefs in the national interest or not? Do what OPEC told them. Want more oil? go pump it yourself

 

[TEUser2K1]

Somali pirates, etc. in dingies don't need huge defense spends to be contained, once the world progress ahead they can be rehabilitated.

Though Keystone pipe line is scrapped, oil is now being imported from same area using goods train network owned by Berkshire Hathway. So, there goes the environment sustainability aspect.
It will be in OPEC's interest to have less competitors and thus reduce oil price so as to make fracking unlivable.

 

[t3chg33k]

EU have weakened a lot these days in several ways.
Root cause for formation of EU itself was similar behavior from USA.

But USA know control everyone like how a puppet master play his puppets.
Even UN is a white elephant made of paper these days, hollow from within.

EU has always been a contradiction in several ways. They will proclaim ideals but have been cosy with dictators for decades, even having one within their ranks now. They will stand for innovation and then have the strictest regulations. They will stand for integration and fracture the countries internally.

EU was always about Europe first and a necessity for peace after two world wars since they were simply destroying themselves and had little to do with the US policies at that time.

You are not a "superpower" if you sit around and twiddle your thumbs and US always felt the need to exert themselves in that regard. However, their adventurism has reduced with globalisation which is a good thing. If you can exert your power using trade rather than weapons, then it is generally preferable. EU thought the same about Russia but Putin is an old-school arm-flexer.

I agree that it is generally a pain to watch the diplomatic, pointless speeches again and again. Veto has turned out to be absolutely ridiculous and just indicates UN is nothing more than a global stage to make speeches as it gets zilch done in terms of actual policies.

 

[TEUser2K1]

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U.S. Considers Easing Venezuela Sanctions To Boost Oil Supply | OilPrice.com

The United States is considering easing sanctions on Venezuela in order to increase the flow of Venezuelan oil barrels to the market

oilprice.com

Easing sanctions will solve the fracking problem. The oil will be only for the US and will reduce their purchases on the global market which will relieve upward pressure on the price. The question is when will Venezuelan oil start flowing? no clarity. Depends on Maduro. The deal is he will allow free and fair elections in 2024. The opposition party in Venezuela is backed by the US.

It will add maybe 500k barrels. They have not invested in maintenance so it will be a while until they are able to reach their former pumping rate of 3.2 million per day.

 

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The question is when will Venezuelan oil start flowing? no clarity. Depends on Maduro. The deal is he will allow free and fair elections in 2024. The opposition party in Venezuela is backed by the US.

Maduro has had multiple assasination attempts. With US mercenary contractors, drone with bombs etc.
He has security cover from Wagner. He has full Russian support.
We where buying oil from them, due to US pressure under Trump, we had to stop importing their oil.

Oil tanker from Iran heading to Venezuela with refined fuel was seized by the US and later sold off to another country. With US pocketing the money.
There was also talk of US wanting to seize their gold. Russian planes is said to have transported their gold.
Why would Maduro now sell oil to US.

 

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Why would Maduro now sell oil to US.

He will be happy to sell to anyone as long as he can and that happens only if sanctions are lifted. Also, the US will release his frozen reserves. Chevron does the pumping there and if things improve develop further oil infrastructure. There seems to have been a goodwill gesture of releasing people from both sides.

A couple of weeks ago the Russians agreed to a pow swap. This was unpopular in Russia as it involved releasing lower rank Azov people. It was a Saudi initiative. These Arabs like these kinds of deals. When IC-914 was hijacked in 1999, to Kabul the Emiratis negotiated a passenger release for us. So this was MBS's gesture to help out in the conflict.

So why did Russia do it? Agreeing to this swap, Kremlin knew they were going to get hammered domestically. So what was Russia's price?

The thinking is if the Saudis could get OPEC to cut production at a time when it would inconvenience the Biden WH then it will be good. Biden has been releasing barrels from the SPA to keep gas prices stable in the US for months now so that the midterms will better go their way. If you see the graph above it has worked to send oil prices down. The US has about 600 million barrels in their strategic reserve. They have released a quarter so far.

Now, the democrats are screwed in the upcoming midterms. Putin is doing his bit to regime change the US

You can say Putin is a part of the LGBTq movement.

Let's get Biden to quit

 

[TEUser2K1]

Saudi Arabia lowers oil prices for Europe but raises them again for the US as White House says OPEC+ is siding with Russia

Saudi Arabia lowers oil prices for Europe but raises them again for the US as White House says OPEC+ is siding with Russia

State-run oil giant Saudi Aramco hiked prices by $0.20 a barrel for all US grades, while northwest Europe and the Mediterranean saw declines.

markets.businessinsider.com

Imagine what will happen to fracking industry in long term.

 

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Saudi Arabia lowers oil prices for Europe but raises them again for the US as White House says OPEC+ is siding with Russia

Saudi Arabia lowers oil prices for Europe but raises them again for the US as White House says OPEC+ is siding with Russia

State-run oil giant Saudi Aramco hiked prices by $0.20 a barrel for all US grades, while northwest Europe and the Mediterranean saw declines.

markets.businessinsider.com

The pricing is shrewd. They drop prices in Europe to compete with the onset of more US crude and keep them steady in Asia to compete with the onset of Russian crude expected towards the end of the year

Saudis are bearing the brunt of the production cut. That was a hard deal Putin got out of them.

"This is hugely political and a very clear signal of OPEC's discontent regarding the price cap," Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told the Financial Times. "Regardless of whether the price cap is actually effective, they see this as a dangerous precedent."

Natural, in what world does the buyer set the price ?!?!

This is like telling Apple what price you will buy their latest iPhone

Imagine what will happen to fracking industry in long term.

That is more down to who is in the WH.

 

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Very interesting piece on al jazeera

 

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Something is up with Starlink internet connections in Ukraine all of a sudden. Have the Russians hacked it

Elon Musk needs to clarify Ukraine's reported Starlink outages: Kinzinger

Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines have been facing outages when trying to use internet terminals, according to a report.

www.newsweek.com