Another Indian commentary
Let’s go..
Counters are straight forward
- Chahbahar. US sanctions have been a bigger obstacle to developing Chahbahar. On again, off again. Should those sanctions be lifted then why would any future Iranian government object? Also left out is why would the US need Pakistan if Iran was available? Meaning Pakistan’s strategic location becomes less of a selling point as the US has another option.
- An anti jihadi Iran, assuming that’s what we get will be opposed to a jihadi Pakistan. The Taliban will also not be in a good position in this case.
- Trade with Iran will continue as is and likely increase without US sanctions.
- China will benefit if Iran can produce more oil & gas for export. So will India. But not Russia as an isolated Iran and a weakened Iran competes less with Russian oil. China trade with Iran will certainly increase but then so will trade with all countries as Iran has been isolated from the world economy for decades
- Whatever happens we will have to deal with it as we have no say what happens there.
- Fragmentation won’t happen. Iran is not some post cold war state but one with a 2,500 year history as a nation. Most Indians unaware of Iranian history miss this point. Fragmentation is not going to happen. This means if Iran remains a coherent unit then the chaos spoken of won’t happen.
How India is affected depends on the outcome.
A Shah led Iran is a plus for India
A military irgc led dictatorship with clerics out becomes more complicated.
Deal worked out with Washington or not?
If not then things remain as is
A deal worked out with Washington means US sanctions lifted. All I said above applies minus the anti jihadi part. Iran essentially becomes led by the military like Pakistan. Its not clear why that is bad. Egypt too is led by the military. But this outcome will be terrible for the Iranian people as it could lead to more repression. Means a future uprising is on the cards
I’m finding the present Indian way of thinking about this issue inadequate. Need a way to think of outcomes
Was listening to a podcast and the framework was more interesting.
Think about the following transition outcome scenarios and how they can affect us
Iran as Russia think Iran gets a Putin
Iran as China
Iran as Pakistan think typical Pak coup
Iran as Turkey an Iranian Erdogan
Iran as North Korea
Iran with the Shah