Military junta or revolution?
Not so much a succession plan as a coup
Earlier people were saying a junta was the most likely outcome because the IRGC has entrenched interests in the economy
Meanwhile…
The gulf countries have joined the fight.
I’m guessing this has to be something else if they’ve also killed his son (?), daughter and grandson.
China trolling with satellite images of US bases being attacked is something else though.
Iran has the Assembly of Experts for Leadership in place for contingencies like these. They will probably pick some hardliner if not someone close to the departed leader.
It is naive to think Iran didnt think of this in advance and made plans. Also, killing the senile leader would not mean the end of the regime in Iran.
IRGC wont go down without doing some exceptional damage
Top names in race to replace Khamenei:
Hojjat-ol-Eslam Mohsen Qomi - A close adviser to Khamenei, Mohsen Qomi is seen as a trusted insider. Supporters believe his proximity to the late leader could help maintain continuity and stability during a turbulent transition.
Ayatollah Alireza Arafi - A senior cleric and member of both the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts, Arafi also heads Iran’s seminary system. According to the council on foreign relations, his appointment would likely preserve the existing political structure.
Ayatollah Mohsen Araki - A senior member of the Assembly of Experts, Araki has strong religious credentials and is frequently cited in succession discussions.
Ayatollah Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei - Currently the head of Iran’s judiciary, Mohseni Ejei has held key security and government posts. His administrative experience could carry weight during a period of uncertainty.
Ayatollah Hashem Hosseini Bushehri - The Friday prayer leader in Qom and a member of the Assembly of Experts, Bushehri is also considered among the potential contenders.
Source:
Here you go
Most upset locals in Karachi and demonstrating it 
All good but think about Nasrallah
They picked a successor, Israelis took him out, they chose another and he went as well.
Who is the leader of hezbollah anddoes anyone care?
Same thing applies to Iran where Mossad will discover who the succesor and whereabouts before Iranians
This concept of Ayatollah is gone for good in Iranian minds.
People expect the IRGC to take over. Military junta scenario. We’ll see.
All these scenarios have been gamed by the Israelis too
I don’t know how you get a change unless the 5% with the guns gives up.
Americans have escalation dominance. That is why they took their time to build up. They expected a fight. Not a problem.
The hard part is having to defend 11 countries. Islamic Republic is firing at everyone and targeting civilian areas (tourist, commercial, residential)
Paks have opened fire on the rioters
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Strange how CENTCOM didn’t immediately deny it when asked.
Nukes are on the table I feel
You know all those countries are going to expect the US to pay for rebuilding, on top of the US’s own military bases.
How would more debt make sense, when the alternative was to wait for an ailing, senile old man to die?
You’d think their munitions have an expiry date by the way they’re itching to engage in another war, haha.
These countries have all learnt you can’t appease terrorists.
You know the Islamic Republic regime is cooked when even Qatar calls then out
Many positions advanced here rely on the assumption that the US will lift sanctions on Iran, it is unlikely to play out that way. Assuming the Ayatholla is gone we’ll soon see a rally around the flag effect in Iran. Allowing Iran to rebuild their economy without sanitization, which cannot happen without boots on the ground, will get hard push back by Israel. They will not allow sanctions to be removed quickly.
As your rightly point out neither Arab states nor Israel, Pakistan or Afghanistan want a stable democratic Iran. Or a clear state control over their oil wealth.
India is a part of both IMEC & INSTC giving us leverage both in West Asia and the larger US-China-Russia table. Iran Saudi rivalry allowed us to get oil at lower prices till 2018. Iran & Venezuela being alternative suppliers to China constrained Putin’s negotiating power with Xi & India, if both are under US control China will hunker down with Russia depleting us of choice in weapons, oil, natural resources.
India maneuvers up the ladder in geopolitics by balancing between opposing sides, emergence of a dominant power irrespective of who it is delays our rise. Geopolitics operates on leverage & interests, relying on getting along is not a viable strategy. A clear US hegemony over the Middle East, Red Sea & Persian Gulf with no opposing force constrains our already limited maneuvering options with them, especially on oil, we’ll be taking terms rather than exercising strategic autonomy. A clear tilt by India either towards US or China, voluntary or involuntary, will allow one to use us against the other.
Bonhomie & rivalry in the Middle East are fluid, today KSA, Turkey & Qatar are more aligned against UAE, Greece & Israel. Significant reconciliation has taken place between Ankara & Riyadh since 2021; Khashoggi was almost a decade ago.
Pakistan has a rising relationship with KSA, Turkey & Qatar, funding for extremism is the least of their worries especially if it is against India. A chaotic Iran will give Pakistan more maneuvering room with both US & China. Allows them to hire more mid management operators from a high HDI country to train their domestic cannon fodder. Frees up more resources to operate in BD.
At the end of the day this is not a good development for us, the blow to Islamists notwithstanding.
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Where do we stand in all of this
Pak under pressure
India’s value heightened
China loss of face
Russia sidelined
Interesting how Modi squeezed in his second trip to Israel before the fight began
UK joins the war along with Canada & Australia.
Earlier UK was saying they would not help.
Chances are that Iran as a country may eventually split in to more countries after the chaos.
India’s interest will be about petrol prices, port investment there, Balochs, Pak counter balance, splinter extremists acting against India later.
What are the chances that those same countries attend the funeral?
Won’t happen. Iran as a unit has existed for over a thousand years. Watch what Iranian Kurds & Baloch are doing.
Sirens going off in Oman
OMAN
Oman have acted as go between for the Islamic Republic and the west for ages. Oman is the last country you would expect to be attacked from the Islamic Republic
Oman would definitely be at the funeral.
edit:
My point being, these middle eastern countries will talk tough about swinging one way or the other, but in the end, they all realize they’ve only got each other and will end up reconciling among themselves.
While the US and Israel will end up looking like they’ve turned up to the wrong birthday party.