Graphic Cards ATI R5xxx Roadmap

Blade_Runner

Forerunner
ATI R5xxx Roadmap

ATI's R5xxx Roadmap Details

If anything, ATI's OEM partners are just as confused as the rest of us. R520, ATI's next generation replacement for the X800 and X850 series, still has no name. We have talked a little bit about R520 in the past, specifically concerning H.264 acceleration on the card. We have also hinted at performance rumors of the R520, but since the silicon has been overhauled so many times since then, R520 could be much different than what was originally speculated. (In fact, we know it is.)

The ATI roadmaps specifically claim the new R5xxx series cards have new video architectures, new memory controllers and now use a 90nm production process. Whether that equates to better performance will have to wait until the actual production launches.

You'll first notice that ATI is releasing their cards slightly out of order this time around. ATI's approach may be to corner off NVIDIA before a next generation replacement for the 6200 series shows up. NVIDIA actually has a current generation 6200 replacement already, the GeForce 6500 (geared specifically to target the Radeon X550). Our sources say the GeForce 6500 will fall somewhere between the performance of a 6600LE and a GeForce 6200, but at a much lower price point than the 6600LE.

[RANK="www.anandtech.com/video/showdoc.aspx?i=2501"]The rest[/RANK]

RV530

* 600MHz Core Clock
* 1400MHz Memory Clock
* 512MB Maximum Memory for "XT"
* 256MB Maximum Memory for "Pro"
* 128-bit Memory
* 12 Pipelines
* Maximum 16x32MB 1.4ns GDDR3
RV515

* 450MHz Core Clock
* 800MHz Memory Clock
* 256MB Maximum Memory Support
* 128-bit Memory
* 4 Pipelines
* Maximum 16x16MB 2.5ns GDDR2


 
i heard gr8 things about this 520 ....but it is not that gr8 ..... y they are having 128bit memory interface ..... and also with 512 MB card ....
 
rahul said:
i heard gr8 things about this 520 ....but it is not that gr8 ..... y they are having 128bit memory interface ..... and also with 512 MB card ....
Ahem rahul those are the specs for rv530 and 515 the mainstream and low end parts. Don't worry the r520 will have a 256 bit memory interface :)
 
Reproducing it here

Update with ATI's CEO

Event: On Aug.17, we hosted investor meetings with Dave Orton, ATI’s President and CEO.

Impact: Neutral.

The meetings focused on four key points: 1) Late September Launch Date Set for Three R500 Desktop Discrete Chips (R520, RV530, and RV515); 2) Strong Integrated Graphics Chipsets Growth, But Gross Margins (Desktop and Mobile Combined) to Remain in the Low-Teens Range in Q4 (Aug); 3) Inventory Level to Remain Above Target in Q4 and Writedown Risk Remains in Our View; and 4) Consumer Business (Wireless and Digital TV) Falls Well Short of Original Target for 2x Growth in F2005. ATI is in final stages of its F2006 financial planning process, and does not intend to make a significant headcount investment, with plans to keep operating expenses relatively flat for each of the quarters. We believe management’s tone was justifiably conservative, and we do not anticipate a one-quarter snapback in revenue growth or gross margins. We have a higher level of confidence that ATI’s R500 family will launch on time, but weak gross margins and the inventory bloat will likely continue to weigh negatively on the stock. We maintain our HOLD and $12.75/C$15.50 target price on ATI, based on 15x our C2006E EPS of $0.85.

1. Late September Launch Date Set for Three R500 Desktop Discrete Chips (R520, RV530, and RV515): Addressing the rampant rumours surrounding the R520 launch date, ATI stated its plan of record is to launch all three 90nm R500 desktop discrete chips (the enthusiast R520, the performance RV530, and the value RV515) in late September. The shipment dates will likely be staggered for the three chips, based on the delivery cycles from TSMC, with one likely shipping at launch date and the other two within the first half of October. The R520 was originally planned for a June launch, while the RV530 and RV515 launch times are only a few weeks delayed from their original schedule. The R520 had been sampling since Dec/04, and although the architecture and 90nm process were not a problem, ATI was not able to run the clock fast enough due to a “soft ground” issue that was discovered in late July after debugging with several re-spins. Specifically, the R520 and RV530 had functional yields, but could not run at high speeds, while the RV515 and the C1 (the 90nm Xbox graphics chip) did not have any issues. ATI concedes it has lost the OEM designs (primarily Dell) to NVIDIA’s GeForce 7800 GTX for enthusiast desktop PCs for both the back-to-school and holiday season, but believes the retail and channel (add-in-board) markets for the R520 chip remain available (representing over 2/3rds of the enthusiast market). Both ATI and NVIDIA did not refresh their back-to-school product stack for the performance/mainstream/value segments, with ATI indicating it has kept a significant share of design wins awarded in the March to May timeframe, based on its ATI X700, X600, X550, and X300 (competing against NVIDIA’s GeForce 6200 and 6600). In terms of performance, ATI believes the R520 should exceed the GeForce 7800 GTX in benchmark tests if it can get the proper clock speed, but recognizes that NVIDIA has some headroom to overclock the GeForce 7800 clock speeds. We do not expect ATI to launch its R580 (speculated to have 32 pixel pipelines) in C2005 (ATI does not want to stall the channel for the R520), and expect a refresh of the R500 family beginning in spring 2006 with RV560, followed by RV540 and RV505. We expect the R600 (DirectX 10, targeting Microsoft Vista operating system and WGF 2.0, the next generation graphics library) in Q4/F06 or Q1/F07.

2. Strong Integrated Graphics Chipsets Growth, But Gross Margins (Desktop and Mobile Combined) to Remain in the Low-Teens Range in Q4 (Aug): ATI is guiding for its integrated graphics chipset business (desktop and mobile) to represent 15% to 20% of revenue in Q4, up from our estimated 11% in Q3. The corresponding gross margins will remain in the 11% to 15% range in Q4, with desktop chipsets margins of approximately 7% and mobile in the mid-teens range. Top line desktop chipset growth is being driven by both the AMD and Intel platforms. ATI contends that half of all AMD processor shipments now ship with ATI’s integrated chipsets, and indicates it has been bidding successfully for design wins against NVIDIA’s upcoming integrated graphics chipset for the AMD64 (K8) desktop market, codenamed C51, for the last six months (C51 launch date is set for late Sept.). We believe Intel’s decision to leave the low-end (sub-$20) desktop chipset market for roughly the next three quarters, as it focuses its capacity on the mobile chipset and handheld/smartphone market, should translate into Intel platform-based integrated chipset growth for both ATI and SiS. ATI is targeting its desktop integrated chipset volume to reach two to three million units per quarter in the next few quarters. ATI expects its integrated chipset gross margins (desktop and mobile combined) to drive towards the 25%-plus range with its next generation chipsets in Spring 2006. Chipset gross margin improvements are expected to be driven by shrinking the die size (from 0.13u to 0.11u), improving the test yields, and reducing the package costs (50% of the chipset cost is substrate packaging). ATI will focus on the $16 to $20 chipset segment, conceding the $22 to $30 chipset segment to Intel, and ATI may move down market to the $12 to $15 chipset segment targeted by VIA and SiS. The single-digit gross margins associated with ATI’s current desktop chipsets is a result of ATI having to lower its chipset pricing from the initial $25 price target (OEM customers desired a $16 to $20 chipset with equivalent graphics performance to Intel, not a $25 chipset with 2x the graphics performance of Intel’s offering). ATI’s high-end CrossFire chipset is expected to ship in volume in early September and contribute positively to gross margins.

3. Inventory Level to Remain Above Target in Q4 and Writedown Risk Remains in Our View: ATI’s Q3 (May) inventory ballooned to $456 million, up $89 million sequentially and representing 100 days of inventory, with 2/3rds of the PC segment inventory consisting of PCI Express versus 1/3 AGP. ATI contends the AGP-based inventory is not materially at risk, given the demand for these value and mainstream parts (e.g., RADEON 9200 and RADEON 9600). Q4 inventory is expected to drop to the low-$400 million range, but still above ATI’s target of having inventory represent roughly 50% of forward revenue guidance (ATI’s inventory turnover target is 70 to 75 days, considering the current substrate shortage situation which is anticipated to last for the next six months). ATI had underestimated the channel demand for nine consecutive quarters, and decided to add two weeks of supply buffer to its inventory in Q2/Q3, increasing to 10 weeks from 8 weeks, but suffered a slowdown in demand and a slight decrease in channel market share to the mid-30% level. In addition, half of the inventory bloat was due to ATI underestimating the yields on its wafer by a factor of roughly 40% (i.e., the wafers yielded 40% more die than expected), further compounding its inventory glut (under ATI’s die buy model, ATI purchases on a per-die as opposed to per-wafer basis, implying that it has secured the price per die based on theoretical yields from the fab, and has committed to purchase the entire wafer no matter what the yield). ATI is not planning for an inventory writedown, arguing its AGP and PCI Express inventory is not obsolete, but cautions that a fast ramp of the new R500 family should put pricing pressure on the existing generation of products (we do not rule out the possibility of an inventory writedown). Justification of Target Price: ATI trades at 25x our C2005E EPS of $0.48 and 14x our C2006E EPS of $0.85, which compares to NVIDIA at 20x and 16x, and Intel trading at 18x and 16x. We believe ATI’s operational issues (desktop product launch delays and gross margin weakness) justify a relatively discounted target multiple of 15x our C2006E EPS, deriving a target price of $12.75/C$15.50. Key Risks to Target Price: Risks include valuation multiple contraction in the semiconductor industry; a slowdown in PC sales; competition from NVIDIA and Intel; inability to secure PCI Express design wins; timing of the Microsoft Xbox 360 and Nintendo Revolution game console launches, unexpected delays in shipping new products; and the outstanding OSC hearing involving ATI’s Chairman.

Action Notes August 18, 2005

Equity Research
 
Chaos said:
In terms of performance, ATI believes the R520 should exceed the GeForce 7800 GTX in benchmark tests if it can get the proper clock speed, but recognizes that NVIDIA has some headroom to overclock the GeForce 7800 clock speeds.

...............
 
Hmm I am more intrested in its feature sets, if it supports unified shaders then its the way to go, as its a lil more future proof. In any case ATI is 4 mths behind sched, so its no doubt R520 will outperform G70 but as Chaos said the chips have quite a bit of headroom.
 
Taken from
http://www.soneraplaza.fi/tietokoneet/artikkeli/0,2998,h-9112_a-303085,00.html

The Interview

In the following dialogue direct quotes from Dave Orton have been placed into quote marks. Text without them has been written based on general conversation.
Sampsa Kurri: ATI’s products often incorporate technology from different segments of the market, so in the future will it be possible to see desktop technology in mobile phones and will we, for example, see Xbox 360 technology in mobile phones?

Dave Orton: "Absolutely, and we’re also leveraging ideas and techniques from mobile technologies to desktop products, like power management technology".

Sampsa: Nokia’s N-Gage didn’t really make the kind of breakthrough that people expected, especially when it was competing against such experienced companies like Sony and Nintendo. What do you believe ATI will bring to mobile phones and mobile gaming market? When can we realistically expect 3D and shaders in mobile phones?

Dave: "From our work with PC and game console manufacturers, it’s become clear that the most important role of graphics hardware is to serve as a delivery platform for a variety of exciting content, and we believe that handset manufacturers can leverage our experience as a content catalyst with PC and game console manufacturers. We’d like to see ourselves as the focal point for mobile phone manufacturers, content creators and other parties to come together to make the delivery of great handheld content possible".

"Our objective is to bring high-end 3D-graphics to mobile phones and we have the technology available today to do that. So obviously, we think there is an exciting opportunity ahead of us to work alongside handheld manufacturers
to drive high-end 3D gaming devices into the market. ATI’s current Imageon 2300 chipset for mobile phones is already OpenGL ES1.0-compatible, and available in existing phones, and next generation Imageon products will see OpenGL ES 2.0-compatibility, which will bring programmability and shaders to mobile devices along with it".

Sampsa: ATI’s products are currently used with more than 30 Motorola mobile phones and Samsung’s five mega-pixel camera phone that was just announced. How come your products are not yet in Nokia’s mobile phones?

Dave: "We do want to see our products in Nokia’s mobile phones, and we would certainly be excited about having Nokia as a partner".

Sampsa: Can you tell us a little about the problems which you encountered when you moved to 90nm production technology?

Dave: "Xbox 360-game console’s Xenon-graphics chipset was developed on 90 nm with tremendous success, so we felt confident using it for the R5xx family. RV515, which will be aimed at the entry-level PC segment, also worked perfectly from the outset without encountering any manufacturing issues. But to be honest, we’ve had our share of challenges with the R520 and RV530 chips. Even though all the simulations that were done with the chips were looking good, there were still issues with the silicon when it came back from the fab. It was also surprising that RV515 and RV530 were designed by the same team and manufactured in the same fab using same technology, but RV515 worked perfectly and RV530 caused us problems".

According to Dave, R520 chips taped-out in November 2004 and original plan was to announce it seven to eight months later during the June-July period. Adopting smaller manufacturing technology delayed the schedule by a couple of months, but because of other challenges the engineers faced, the chips were delayed by an additional 2-3 months.

Sampsa: Last year when ATI moved from the 130nm to the 110nm manufacturing process, only the entry-level, mainstream and upper-mainstream products made the migration. How come this time around you’re using the latest process technology, 90nm, for your entire product family, including high end?

Dave: "One major factor relating to adoption of smaller manufacturing technology was naturally our deal with Microsoft on the graphics solution of Xbox360, and the success of the Xenos graphics processor has given us a high confidence level in the 90nm process. And although there have been challenges along the way, recent results with the R520 and RV530 are looking excellent, and indicate that they'll be very well placed in the market in terms of both performance and image quality when they arrive in the fall."

Sampsa: Did you have to remove any planned features from R520 in order to reach the version of R520 which you’re about to bring to the market?

Dave: "No we didn’t. The graphics chip runs extremely fast, and although we’re still finalizing clocks, I can tell you that we’re hitting stock engine speeds never seen before in this industry. The chip had to be produced with 90nm technology, because 110 nm would have made it way too large, and it’s still not a small chip."

According to Dave, the memory controller of the graphics chip has gone through a complete redesign, and ATI will be providing more details when they launch their new product family this fall.

Sampsa: A year ago, ATI was almost laughing off Nvidia’s SLi dual display card solution, but now you’ve announced your own dual-GPU CrossFire technology to the market. What do you think about multi-card solutions?

Dave: "ATI has always supported multi-GPU solutions – in fact, we brought the first one to market in 1999 with the Rage Fury Maxx, and we actually hold the patents on a number of multi-GPU technologies including AFR. Over
the years, we’ve continued to bring multi-GPU solutions to market for industrial and military applications through our partners like Evans and Sutherland, and SGI. But before bringing out CrossFire, we wanted to be sure we could deliver performance, exceptional image quality, and a fully-flexible, fully-compatible solution for the right price. And this is an area that will continue to evolve, and ATI is going to continue to be a driving force. Going forward, we expect to see trends in multi-GPU technology that will include dual X16 support and more competitive pricing".

Sampsa: Would it then be fair to say that you launched CrossFire because of pressure from Nvidia?

Dave: "Nvidia certainly deserves credit for bringing SLi to the market and generating more consumer interest in multi-card solutions, but the vision behind CrossFire was to create the only multi-card solution on the market that provides a performance or image quality improvement to 100% of 3D games, not just 2 or 3%. Delivering a solution with 30X the level of game compatibility means a longer engineering investment, and the feedback we’ve received from customers is that they are prepared to wait a bit longer for a solution that meets their needs better".

Sampsa: Do you believe that in future we’ll see four or even more display card solutions?

Dave: "We’re already seeing solutions from partners like Evans and Sutherland that are using 64 ATI GPUs for industrial applications, and on the consumer side, in the future I could expect to see a display card that includes two graphics chips, which could be combined to provide a four GPU solution".

Sampsa: Do you also expect to see dual core graphics solutions in the future in a similar manner as Intel’s and AMD’s dual core CPU’s?

Dave: "Graphics chips have been implementing multi-cores for years, and today we have 16 or more cores operating on one ASIC. Putting two GPUs on a die is not really a necessary step, but putting multiple GPUs on a card is a logical step going forward".

Sampsa: ATI told us last year that it’ll only announce a display card when it can be brought to markets in 30 days. Comments on this?

Dave: "Luckily we didn’t say this with the announcement of CrossFire technology. We ran into problems with external link-cable and motherboards certainly are not in the markets yet. ATI CrossFire samples should be available to the press in the next couple of weeks though, and motherboards based on this technology will arrive to the market before next generation display cards are launched".

Sampsa: One last question, have you ever overclocked a display card? :)

Dave: "Not personally; I mostly use a laptop. But we consider ourselves an important part of the overclocking community: for example, we’ve sponsored overclocking contests, we hosted two of the world’s top overclockers at our R420 launch event in Barcelona for a overclocking demonstration, and we’re working on an overclocking guide with useful tips and hints for overclockers".

4 GPU solutions... Way to go ATI :clap:
 
This may not mean much, but just noticed that ATI stock prices fell 11.82 % Yesterday !!!!! Those investing in shares will know the effect..
 
^^It was only momentary as ATI issued a sales warning cos it won't be able to meet the earlier projected sales figures. Its recovered and back to where it was now. (google ATYT and u'll know)
 
And then this :

http://securities.stanford.edu/1035/ATYT05_01/

According to a press release dated August 18, 2005, the complaint charges ATI and certain of its officers and directors with violations of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. ATI is the world's second largest computer graphics chip maker.

Specifically, the complaint alleges that during the Class Period, defendants made false and misleading statements regarding the Company's business and prospects. As a result of defendants' false and misleading statements, ATI's stock traded at inflated levels, allowing the Company's top officers and directors to sell or otherwise dispose of more than $54 million worth of their own shares at artificially inflated prices.
 
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