When Apple announced in June that it had chosen Intel to supply its next generation of microprocessors, the news sent shock waves through the computing industry.
But Apple's decision to end an 11-year partnership with IBM wasn't the only bombshell. The other surprise: Apple's move marked one of the few memorable occasions in which a technology pundit's prediction came true.
Back in early 2003, tech columnist and prognosticator John Dvorak first predicted that Apple would announce a switch to Intel chips within 18 months. While off by a few months, the forecast otherwise came to fruition just as Dvorak detailed.
Accurate predictions are not unprecedented in the world of technology punditry. In years past, a broad cross-section of industry insiders correctly forecast such occurrences as the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the court-ordered closure of Napster. Other futuristic insights (including ones made by this author about such topics as why the 2000 AOL-Time Warner merger made sense) look laughable in retrospect.
A review of 2005 forecasts laid out by well-known technology pundits reveals a familiar mix of right and wrong guesses, along with extremely obvious ones. Below, we'll look at prognostications in each category, along with overall performances of individual forecasters.
Correct and nearly correct forecasts
Nobody will make money on Wi-Fi, but it will become ubiquitous anyway: This prediction, part of a list published in January by PBS tech pundit Robert Cringley, seems on the mark. Because it costs practically nothing to set up a Wi-Fi hotspot, no one will pay much to use it. As a free app, though, it's still enormously popular.
Other predictions: Cringley also forecast that in 2005, desktop Linux would make some inroads (too mild a statement to challenge), that the RIAA will continue to sue users of file-trading networks (true), and that Microsoft's entry into the antivirus and anti-spyware business will be a disaster for users (hasn't happened yet). Cringley said he will publish a review of all his 2005 predictions in January.
Google may acquire AOL: Technology pundit Rob Enderle's 2005 forecast list included a prediction that Google's "acquisition path may include AOL and Novell as they gird for the increasing battle with Microsoft." Enderle may be the pundit other pundits love to criticize, but he did get pretty close with this one. On Dec. 20, the search firm announced it had agreed to pay $1 billion for a 5 percent stake in Time Warner's AOL unit.
Other predictions: Enderle also forecast that low heat and noise would replace performance as the key driver for the desktop market (not exactly true, although PC heat and noise are becoming bigger concerns), that LCD-based displays would drop dramatically in price (true), and that e-mail users would start to question whether the medium's benefits still outweigh the hassle of spam (nope, spam hasn't turned us off e-mail yet).
Predictions that didn't pan out
The year of the penguin: When Wal-Mart introduced a Linux-powered notebook computer for below $500, open-source fans predicted the technology would take off. In his list of forecasts for 2005, Linux entrepreneur Michael Robertson wrote that in the course of the year, "every NFL city will have a store you can walk into and buy a Linux desktop or laptop."
Today, Wal-Mart is no longer selling the notebook, which is listed on its website as "out of stock."
Other predictions: Robertson also wrote that the Windows Media Center would suffer the "blue screen of death," (hasn't happened yet) and that release of Microsoft's next-generation operating system, Longhorn (now called Vista), will be delayed to 2007. (Microsoft says it plans to ship in the second half of 2006.)
Semiconductor slump: Analysts at IDC forecast that worldwide revenues for the semiconductor industry would decline by 2 percent in 2005. According to analysts at Gartner Group, worldwide semiconductor revenue actually grew about 7 percent in 2005, reaching $235 billion, based on preliminary data.
Other predictions: IDC also forecast that the PC market would grow by 10 percent in 2005 (which appears on track, thanks to strong notebook sales) and that RFID deployments would accelerate (true, though not as quickly as many industry analysts expected).
Statements of the obvious
Wireless will continue to replace land line at a faster pace: Internet telephony pundit Jeff Pulver's prediction seems somewhat obvious, but nonetheless accurate. In 2005, personal calling on wireless phones in the United States exceeded that on residential land lines, even though 35 percent of the U.S. population doesn't have wireless, according to the Yankee Group.
Other predictions: Pulver also wrote that "2005 will be the year VOIP (voice over internet protocol) in the USA crosses the early-adopter chasm" (vague but basically true) and that VOIP firms would also launch stock offerings this year (widely anticipated, but hasn't happened).
Blogs are big and varied: Online media pundit John Battelle predicted a year ago that "by the end of the year, the world will begin to realize that blogs are in fact an extraordinarily heterogeneous ecosystem comprised of scores, if not hundreds, of different types of sites."
Other predictions: Battelle also forecast both that commercial interests would be pushing farther into the blogosphere, and that major publishing revenues would "not materialize as quickly as perhaps we think they should." (Both score an A for "accurate" and an O for "obvious.")
Post script: Readers looking for wilder forecasts might want to check out the 2005 list attributed to fans of radio talk show host Art Bell.
Forget about guessing software launch dates. For 2005, these forecasters predicted, among other things, that terrorists would attack near Las Vegas in July, that Vice President Dick Cheney would resign, and that rock star Jim Morrison would be found alive.
It was unclear whether these predictions were foreseen as connected.
Courtesy : Joanna Glasner, wired news
But Apple's decision to end an 11-year partnership with IBM wasn't the only bombshell. The other surprise: Apple's move marked one of the few memorable occasions in which a technology pundit's prediction came true.
Back in early 2003, tech columnist and prognosticator John Dvorak first predicted that Apple would announce a switch to Intel chips within 18 months. While off by a few months, the forecast otherwise came to fruition just as Dvorak detailed.
Accurate predictions are not unprecedented in the world of technology punditry. In years past, a broad cross-section of industry insiders correctly forecast such occurrences as the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the court-ordered closure of Napster. Other futuristic insights (including ones made by this author about such topics as why the 2000 AOL-Time Warner merger made sense) look laughable in retrospect.
A review of 2005 forecasts laid out by well-known technology pundits reveals a familiar mix of right and wrong guesses, along with extremely obvious ones. Below, we'll look at prognostications in each category, along with overall performances of individual forecasters.
Correct and nearly correct forecasts
Nobody will make money on Wi-Fi, but it will become ubiquitous anyway: This prediction, part of a list published in January by PBS tech pundit Robert Cringley, seems on the mark. Because it costs practically nothing to set up a Wi-Fi hotspot, no one will pay much to use it. As a free app, though, it's still enormously popular.
Other predictions: Cringley also forecast that in 2005, desktop Linux would make some inroads (too mild a statement to challenge), that the RIAA will continue to sue users of file-trading networks (true), and that Microsoft's entry into the antivirus and anti-spyware business will be a disaster for users (hasn't happened yet). Cringley said he will publish a review of all his 2005 predictions in January.
Google may acquire AOL: Technology pundit Rob Enderle's 2005 forecast list included a prediction that Google's "acquisition path may include AOL and Novell as they gird for the increasing battle with Microsoft." Enderle may be the pundit other pundits love to criticize, but he did get pretty close with this one. On Dec. 20, the search firm announced it had agreed to pay $1 billion for a 5 percent stake in Time Warner's AOL unit.
Other predictions: Enderle also forecast that low heat and noise would replace performance as the key driver for the desktop market (not exactly true, although PC heat and noise are becoming bigger concerns), that LCD-based displays would drop dramatically in price (true), and that e-mail users would start to question whether the medium's benefits still outweigh the hassle of spam (nope, spam hasn't turned us off e-mail yet).
Predictions that didn't pan out
The year of the penguin: When Wal-Mart introduced a Linux-powered notebook computer for below $500, open-source fans predicted the technology would take off. In his list of forecasts for 2005, Linux entrepreneur Michael Robertson wrote that in the course of the year, "every NFL city will have a store you can walk into and buy a Linux desktop or laptop."
Today, Wal-Mart is no longer selling the notebook, which is listed on its website as "out of stock."
Other predictions: Robertson also wrote that the Windows Media Center would suffer the "blue screen of death," (hasn't happened yet) and that release of Microsoft's next-generation operating system, Longhorn (now called Vista), will be delayed to 2007. (Microsoft says it plans to ship in the second half of 2006.)
Semiconductor slump: Analysts at IDC forecast that worldwide revenues for the semiconductor industry would decline by 2 percent in 2005. According to analysts at Gartner Group, worldwide semiconductor revenue actually grew about 7 percent in 2005, reaching $235 billion, based on preliminary data.
Other predictions: IDC also forecast that the PC market would grow by 10 percent in 2005 (which appears on track, thanks to strong notebook sales) and that RFID deployments would accelerate (true, though not as quickly as many industry analysts expected).
Statements of the obvious
Wireless will continue to replace land line at a faster pace: Internet telephony pundit Jeff Pulver's prediction seems somewhat obvious, but nonetheless accurate. In 2005, personal calling on wireless phones in the United States exceeded that on residential land lines, even though 35 percent of the U.S. population doesn't have wireless, according to the Yankee Group.
Other predictions: Pulver also wrote that "2005 will be the year VOIP (voice over internet protocol) in the USA crosses the early-adopter chasm" (vague but basically true) and that VOIP firms would also launch stock offerings this year (widely anticipated, but hasn't happened).
Blogs are big and varied: Online media pundit John Battelle predicted a year ago that "by the end of the year, the world will begin to realize that blogs are in fact an extraordinarily heterogeneous ecosystem comprised of scores, if not hundreds, of different types of sites."
Other predictions: Battelle also forecast both that commercial interests would be pushing farther into the blogosphere, and that major publishing revenues would "not materialize as quickly as perhaps we think they should." (Both score an A for "accurate" and an O for "obvious.")
Post script: Readers looking for wilder forecasts might want to check out the 2005 list attributed to fans of radio talk show host Art Bell.
Forget about guessing software launch dates. For 2005, these forecasters predicted, among other things, that terrorists would attack near Las Vegas in July, that Vice President Dick Cheney would resign, and that rock star Jim Morrison would be found alive.
It was unclear whether these predictions were foreseen as connected.
Courtesy : Joanna Glasner, wired news