egypt ... peoples revolution
- Thread starter kippu
- Start date
sarveshm123
Disciple
Power of people in reality , we should take inspiration from them.
blr_p
Skilled
l33t said:
Will have to see, authoritarian regimes are out for sure. Fundies only take over when the situation is dire, so i don't see them getting too much of a hold. I would not call the current situation a junta yet, its got the support of the people and did not act in any way detrimental to the people over the last threee weeks.
How does Turkey as a model for Egypt sound ?
blr_p said:
I still dont think Turkey is in for radical secularization since the majority , probably 90% of the country is Sunni,Muslim.
-What Mubarak said earlier was in a way true , If he quits the country will be in turmoil , Even if we consider people like El Baradei to be the successor of Mubarak , things arent going to really show change , we'll have a recap of the sadat era , i d k, this one month might decide what's in store for the coming year in egypt ?
I had read some where , the numbers were pretty surprising to me , that was a comparison of vital economic stats , of malaysia and egypt , the numbers were'nt any different , even though malays were exposed to more growth , egypt showed similar growth patterns , despite being surrounded by a bunch of very underdeveloped countries , perhaps despotism helped egypt in a way ? its all a pretty big mess atm.
blr_p
Skilled
I don't mean Turkey is going to be next. I'm saying Turkey is the best example of a secular majority muslim country which coexists with Islamists and that it could serve as a model for Egypt to emulate. Army in charge but apolitical and allowing democratic institutions to grow.l33t said:
I find it highly curious that yesterday he says he would stay and today we hear a different story. Evidently supression was not in the interests of anybody. So the army decided it was the right time to pull support for him and thats why he's out.l33t said:
I expected Mubarak to stick on till Sept when elections were planned for.
Baradei wants to be seen as a figure rather than a party. its not clear yet what his plans are. He does not have enough support to be the next leader. The question is who are the leaders that will take the country forward. They are yet to emerge.l33t said:
The next month is critical sure, but the signs are 50-50 so far, not great neither bad. The army has the ppl's confidence and the era of military regimes in Egypt are over.
Growth in egypt comparable to malaysia ? i would be very surprised that such a comparison could even be made.l33t said:
The only party to gain from despotism was Mubarak's regime and the army by honoring the peace treaty with Isreal that netted them $billions over the years.
blr_p
Skilled
Opportunist to the point he objects to how the west perceives the muslim brotherhood.
Its debatable how much support even the muslim brotherhood has. Some claim they have 30%, but their representatives claim they could have got 50% if the polls were not rigged or their cadres imprisoned.
So how do things change when ppl are free to choose who they want, when there is more freedom for other parties to emerge. if the muslim brotherhood isn't the only alternative to the regime ?
I think they'll end up a minority party. A vocal one but yet still a minority. Course this assumes an even playing field. The whole protest was about an uneven playing field. It remains to be seen how well the Egyptians can create one now that they've deposed the old regime.
Its debatable how much support even the muslim brotherhood has. Some claim they have 30%, but their representatives claim they could have got 50% if the polls were not rigged or their cadres imprisoned.
So how do things change when ppl are free to choose who they want, when there is more freedom for other parties to emerge. if the muslim brotherhood isn't the only alternative to the regime ?
I think they'll end up a minority party. A vocal one but yet still a minority. Course this assumes an even playing field. The whole protest was about an uneven playing field. It remains to be seen how well the Egyptians can create one now that they've deposed the old regime.
Gryph0n
Adept
Democracy is not just throwing out despots or even holding elections. Its about independent institutions that work in a defined framework.
India is a great example. The CEC ensures fair & free elections. The constitution defines our fundamental rights that cannot be taken away by the rulers. When the government does take away our constitutional rights, the courts can declare it unconstitutional (One significant failure was during the Emergency imposed by Indira Gandhi). And most importantly, our military has never aspired for political power, and has always been under civilian rule.
To become a real democracy, Egypt would have to set up this institutional framework within which such institutions are defined. The chances of this are rather slim, given that their military is still in power. Mubarak was an Air Force general, and his current replacement also belongs to the security apparatus.
Egypt is right now in flux, and the country might go anywhere : another despot/dictator, or into Islamist fundamentalist theocracy, or into a functioning democracy. My hope is that it becomes a democracy, but reality makes me recognize it's the least likely path.
India is a great example. The CEC ensures fair & free elections. The constitution defines our fundamental rights that cannot be taken away by the rulers. When the government does take away our constitutional rights, the courts can declare it unconstitutional (One significant failure was during the Emergency imposed by Indira Gandhi). And most importantly, our military has never aspired for political power, and has always been under civilian rule.
To become a real democracy, Egypt would have to set up this institutional framework within which such institutions are defined. The chances of this are rather slim, given that their military is still in power. Mubarak was an Air Force general, and his current replacement also belongs to the security apparatus.
Egypt is right now in flux, and the country might go anywhere : another despot/dictator, or into Islamist fundamentalist theocracy, or into a functioning democracy. My hope is that it becomes a democracy, but reality makes me recognize it's the least likely path.
Gryph0n said:
:S But yea, the EC does a good job , Too many political hurdles involved in an un-biased election in India
Spot On ! :cool2:Gryph0n said:
- Thing is , 1947 the mob was fickle , we did not know which side to go to , we had choices , but did not know which was the one to go with , I put Egypt in the same category , Even if "Free and Fair" elections are conducted and the results announced - What if the choice wasn't the right one ? Egypt might even take the Iranian Revolution Road - Under Mubarak , it was Pro-US , After Mubarak , what happens ? I hope they do not take the Iranian way , and start supplying Launch Vehicles to authoritarian regimes
,a lot of scenarios :| whats going to happen ? whats the most likely thing thats going to happen ?
blr_p
Skilled
Nehru did.l33t said:
This is something that should have happened when they shook off the empire but it got hijacked. Given they had three dictators each worse than the previous one, i'd put my trust in the ppl to work it out.l33t said:
Why not, if its conducted in an open & transparent manner with intl. monitors.l33t said:
That led to a theocracy, there are no Sunni theocracies in existence. There is no Egyptian Khomeni or Mullah Omar AFAICT.l33t said:
How bout trusting them to find their way. The way this uprising turned out is good no executions of the past leader, no coup, no parties or any personalities calling for the uprising, non-violent for the most part, it just erupted simultaneously. The security apparatus lost the will to fight the people, thats why the people won.l33t said:
I don't think it wil turn out bad because of the extensive influence the US has with the army there. And the army is in charge now. I would not be surprised if a word was passed to drop support for Mubarak as it might have turned ugly otherwise. When that happens the Islamists rack up support.