How will Trumps threat on 100% tariff on BRICS pan out

[Renegade]

Trump has threatened to put 100% tariff on BRICS nations if they try to bypass the dollar in their international trade. The rupee has fallen to a record low of 84.70 post that. (I still remember the good old days when it used to trade at late 30s and early 40s).

So why is Trump pressuring other countries to continue using the dollar? How is America being a 'sucker' if it allows it to happen? And will this pressure stop the countries from creating another currency or will it accelerate the process?

 

[Neotheone]

Um, well as I see it, the American economic cycle (and the empire cycle) seems to be approaching the late stage in its life cycle, where its debt is no longer sustainable (look up their Debt/GDP), and they are finding it difficult to course correct even after huge economic crises (as seen in 2008). So instead, they are having to create inflation to make the debt sustainable. This is politically difficult.

In the past few decades however, due to the faith of the world in the USD as a reserve currency, they could import stuff from the world without improving their own economic productivity, which kept US inflation at bay. US wants that to continue, so it is telling the world to keep its faith in the dollar, or else.

Ironically, the stated threat is likely fake because if they apply huge tariffs, it will also be highly inflationary for US consumers and can destabilize them economically. But I believe there is a deeper unstated threat of war. Empires tend to go to war to protect their dominance during the late stage of their empire's cycle, and I suspect that US might consider doing that to keep the USD's dominance intact. However, it would not be easy because they are too economically dependent on the major players like China.

 

[kiranrss]

These are threats to dissaude the world from moving away from American debt. Unfortunately they continue to be the biggest market for most trades due to their ability to print paper money without restraint. The tariffs will impact the brick nations but will also impact America equally since bric nations will also impose tariffs on American exports. (MANUFACTURED IN CHINA AND BRANDED AS AMERICAN).
That said am not sure india should tie itself to Brazil or Russia as their economic conditions are not that better

 

[t3chg33k]

These are threats to dissaude the world from moving away from American debt. Unfortunately they continue to be the biggest market for most trades due to their ability to print paper money without restraint. The tariffs will impact the brick nations but will also impact America equally since bric nations will also impose tariffs on American exports. (MANUFACTURED IN CHINA AND BRANDED AS AMERICAN).
That said am not sure india should tie itself to Brazil or Russia as their economic conditions are not that better

The entire target for BRICS was to be the largest economic group by 2050. Quite a long way away in terms of time.

Threat against an non-existent sovereign currency is as Trumpian as it gets. Not one expects all these countries to agree on one anytime in the near future.

 

[kiranrss]

The entire target for BRICS was to be the largest economic group by 2050. Quite a long way away in terms of time.

Threat against an non-existent sovereign currency is as Trumpian as it gets. Not one expects all these countries to agree on one anytime in the near future.

Considering the slowdown in our economy, we should look at new trade routes

 

[blr_p]

Threat against an non-existent sovereign currency is as Trumpian as it gets. Not one expects all these countries to agree on one anytime in the near future.

Does the threat expire when he leaves office?

 

[6pack]

First USA sanctions countries they don't like using their currency. Then they threaten those countries for not using their currency. :S
This drama would not have happened if USA didn't weaponize their dollar. They used the sanctions card a bit too much and will pay the price in coming years.

 

[kiranrss]

Does the threat expire when he leaves office?

Usually doesn't once implemented these are taken away after negotiations and considerations in trade. Cards to be used by the next guy

 

[blr_p]

Usually doesn't once implemented these are taken away after negotiations and considerations in trade. Cards to be used by the next guy

How do you implement this threat?

They would have to pass some law with certain criteria to be met or something else...

 

[kiranrss]

How do you implement this threat?

They would have to pass some law with certain criteria to be met or something else...

The tariffs can be declared by the US president to a large extent.

Read below
While the U.S. Constitution grants to Congress the power to levy tariffs on goods, Congress has delegated some of that power to the Executive Branch over time. The U.S. Constitution states in Article I, Section 8 that “The Congress shall have the Power to lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises.” Congress passed general tariff legislation until the early 1930s. However, in a move to grant more flexibility to the President to revitalize global trade in the midst of the Great Depression, Congress gave the Executive Branch the power to negotiate tariff reductions within levels pre-approved by Congress through the Reciprocal Trade Agreement Act of 1934. President Franklin D. Roosevelt became the first President to have the authority to levy tariffs and negotiate bilateral trade agreements without the approval of Congress.2



The Executive Branch has continued to exercise a level of authority over tariffs over the past few decades. In 1962 President Kennedy signed into law the Trade Expansion Act, which allows the President to adjust tariffs based on threats to national security under section 232.3 This is the authority under which President Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, which have a vast impact on some of the United States’ biggest trading partners and many U.S. industries. Since the beginning of the year, there have been bipartisan efforts in Congress to try to regain some of the power that was delegated to the Executive branch to regulate trade

source - https://yeutter-institute.unl.edu/w...riffs-and-how-does-affect-international-trade

 

[TEUser2K1]

Countries will depreciate their currencies initially to counter the tariff. This will increase US$ valuation while selling weapons which are one of their biggest exports.
Then more stable countries like China will form currency based bonds / contracts between other interested countries to circumvent US$ usage.
If USA childishly threaten others over their biggest export which is US$, other countries are fully in their right to protect own interests by forming business alliances and trading methods which can backfire on USA.
Only option for USA then will be to create wars and destabilize other countries. India can look at Bangladesh which may write off St.Martin island to USA (which will have a base near India and China by that) and skirmishes in south China sea against China, Taiwan issues, etc.

 

[adder]

So if BRICSs countries trade with their own currencies with each other bypassing swift and all other west owned banking methods. How will the US Treasury know who is using what.

Tariffs will cause a huge inflation in the USA. A $22000 BYD seal with 100% tariff is $44000 and is still cheaper than a Tesla Model 3.

Even a F35 jet needs stuff from China. Lot of US aerospace industry needs metals from Russia.

I think only India is affected by tariff because of the services export. But even that will organically fall even without tariff due to AI.

 

[TEUser2K1]

How will the US Treasury know who is using what.

USA have their agencies all over countries worth statistical monitoring.
They know what materials are being bulk transported in our ports better than us.

 

[Kevin Lane]

May be we need to think about whether tariffs will hurt whom the more? Does USA has alternative supply chains to cater to their demand? Does other nations have similar production capacity as China, Brazil? Does other nations have IT capacity as large as India? Does Europe has option to Russian Energy? (They don't have, currently they are routing Russian oil through India, If you remove India, Brazil, Gulf out of supply chain, what options do they have?) Do BRICS need US more or is it otherwise?

May be we need to think how USA will create domestic production capacity without considerable Dollar depreciation.

May be we need to think whether BRICS is interested in supplying USA at all. Or how US tariff prevent them from internally dealing in own currencies. A considerable trade is already shifting to local currencies. Global South's current core aim is specifically to break free of Dollar Chains due to USA's dadagiri. USA is threatening with same dadagiri, does anyone think how will it go with Global South?

May be we need to think how USA will tender their gargantuan debt? Their interest outgo has already surpassed their defense spending.

We also need to think what is stand of moneybags? Do they see bigger opportunity in Global South or still see West as their best option?

We also need to think whether West/USA still are as relevant as they used to be? BRICS economy is already considerably larger than G7.

We also need to think how many countries in West will switch sides as soon as there is some heat?

We also need to think that there is always contradiction in words and actions in geopolitics. Most of the times they mean exact opposite of what they say.

 

[TEUser2K1]

We also need to think that there is always contradiction in words and actions in geopolitics. Most of the times they mean exact opposite of what they say.

They do what benefit their cronies, that is all with the doublespeak. So, wait for the deal making talks...

 

[blr_p]

https://ddnews.gov.in/en/brics-countries-drive-global-economic-growth-exceed-gdp-of-g7-nations-putin/

I wondered earlier why over the last couple of years several countries wanted to join BRICS.

According to Putin, the economic landscape has shifted dramatically since 1992 when the G7 nations accounted for 45.5% of global GDP, while BRICS countries represented only 16.7%.

In 2023, the BRICS bloc now accounts for 37.4% of global GDP, compared to the G7’s 29.3%. “The gap is widening, and this trend will continue,” Putin said.

That's why.

It's also why Trump has his eyes on it.

 

[TEUser2K1]

Canada called 'broken sh**hole' after Trump suggests to Trudeau to make it 51st US state - Times of India

US News: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded with nervous laughter when Donald Trump suggested Canada become the 51st state of the US if a proposed 25% tar

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

"HOLY MOLY! When Justin Trudeau grumbled to Trump that new tariffs would hurt Canada's economy, Trump savagely told him, "If Canada can’t survive without ripping off the U.S., then maybe Canada should become the 51st U.S. state..” I have goosebumps jsut imaginging the look on Trudeau's face when he heard this. He flew thousands of miles just to get roasted. MURICA IS BACK!" one wrote.."

 

[kiranrss]

So if BRICSs countries trade with their own currencies with each other bypassing swift and all other west owned banking methods. How will the US Treasury know who is using what.

Tariffs will cause a huge inflation in the USA. A $22000 BYD seal with 100% tariff is $44000 and is still cheaper than a Tesla Model 3.

Even a F35 jet needs stuff from China. Lot of US aerospace industry needs metals from Russia.

I think only India is affected by tariff because of the services export. But even that will organically fall even without tariff due to

Canada called 'broken sh**hole' after Trump suggests to Trudeau to make it 51st US state - Times of India

US News: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded with nervous laughter when Donald Trump suggested Canada become the 51st state of the US if a proposed 25% tar

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

"HOLY MOLY! When Justin Trudeau grumbled to Trump that new tariffs would hurt Canada's economy, Trump savagely told him, "If Canada can’t survive without ripping off the U.S., then maybe Canada should become the 51st U.S. state..” I have goosebumps jsut imaginging the look on Trudeau's face when he heard this. He flew thousands of miles just to get roasted. MURICA IS BACK!" one wrote.."

Yes that guy and his smart statements, imagine if others react the same to him

 

[blr_p]

Canada called 'broken sh**hole' after Trump suggests to Trudeau to make it 51st US state - Times of India

US News: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded with nervous laughter when Donald Trump suggested Canada become the 51st state of the US if a proposed 25% tar

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

"HOLY MOLY! When Justin Trudeau grumbled to Trump that new tariffs would hurt Canada's economy, Trump savagely told him, "If Canada can’t survive without ripping off the U.S., then maybe Canada should become the 51st U.S. state..” I have goosebumps jsut imaginging the look on Trudeau's face when he heard this. He flew thousands of miles just to get roasted. MURICA IS BACK!" one wrote.."

Trump thinks Canada is broken?

No wonder we've been having trouble with them.

He is trolling Canada big time

 

[Mr.J]

Trump and his gang of con-artists will crash US economy, which in turn will negatively affect global economy. Only people benefiting from this are ghouls who will hoard more real estate and get desperate workers for cheap and without any regulatory oversight. (Project 2025 wants to 'rein in' OSHA and get rid of overtime pay).

It is going to be a difficult decade ahead.