Will the rupee EVER recover?
- Thread starter crytt
- Start date
Kevin Lane
Galvanizer
As per my understanding of geoeconomics, Rupee may dip to 96 or there about. Than the question will flip on it's head. New question will be "Will dollar ever recover?"
Kevin Lane
Galvanizer
It was challenged long back. The days as they were are over is also old news. Last days of it's hegemony.
FXGalvatron
Galvanizer
Maybe I don't understand things that well but isn't the BRICS trying to challenge things? I would like to learn more.
chetansha
Juggernaut
honest1
Herald
To the OP and great economists who are now going to discuss about economics here!
Kevin Lane
Galvanizer
There are many geopolitical/Geo Economics happenings to suggest so. Look up and contemplate following points for a start.
1. Anything that gets too big for itself crumbles. Strong Dollar may have resulted in Unsustainable External debt levels for USA. Currently USA has huge debt resulting in interest outgo that has exceeded it's defense spending. It will be exceedingly difficult for USA to serve it's interest obligations.
2. Global South or Non Western world is no longer willing to subsidize western lifestyles. Now their collective might is more than the west.
3. Global trade is increasingly shifting to local currencies.
4. See last decade of trend of Precious metals. RIC plus Arab world are accumulating Gold like anything.
5. See how Ukraine started and ended. See Palestine. Do you see resistance to Greater Israel, Greater Russia, Greater China, Greater India being anywhere near to be succeeding?
World is shifting towards De-Dollarization, De-colonization. BRICS, Israel, MENA, Japan, Africa are all aligned along with large chunk of DS.
All started in the times of Shinzo Abe. Modi, Putin, Xi, MBS, MBZ, Netanyahu being at helm simultaneously is kind of miracle. They are all working towards common goal. West is also not getting any stronger.
We are going to witness things which couldn't be imagined a few years back. Many even can't imagine it today. If one were to follow geo economics and see without colonized glasses, it's there in plain sight.
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crytt
Explorer
Isn't that because the Federal Reserve loans money out at an interest every year to the USG which every year results in US borrowing external money to pay off internal debts then borrowing internal money to pay off external debts? It's a never ending cycle because the Federal Reserve of US is only allowed to print and loan money.
What's the incentive for it to recover?
Are we going to stop consuming petrol, diesel, onlyfans, iphones?
Kevin Lane
Galvanizer
Imagine all these external came calling for redemption!
If you see what Trump and Musk are saying, they look sh*t scared...
Nobody is going to stop consuming anything.
But, give the possibility of all stopping consuming via dollar a chance.
Kevin Lane
Galvanizer
Food for thought,
Global trade is thousands years old, Dollar as reserve currency is till not past it's first century. World did well before, world will do well after.
The thing is what will Europe do?
Another food for thought -
Asia had historically most GDP and most human population as their lands supported it. Even after 200-300 years of industrialization and global looting, Europe is still about half of even India or China, let alone Aisa. EU+USA is almost equal to India or china. EU don't have conditions conducive to large population,
When purchasing power of their currency suffers, imagine what will happen?
P.S. USA is much safer there. They have great lands+climate conditions but their multi cultural mix is a ticking time bomb. If times become hard enough, we will see Civil War again.
Global trade is thousands years old, Dollar as reserve currency is till not past it's first century. World did well before, world will do well after.
Asia, Africa will do fine. They had enough food as they grew all their food through history.
The thing is what will Europe do?
Another food for thought -
Asia had historically most GDP and most human population as their lands supported it. Even after 200-300 years of industrialization and global looting, Europe is still about half of even India or China, let alone Aisa. EU+USA is almost equal to India or china. EU don't have conditions conducive to large population,
When purchasing power of their currency suffers, imagine what will happen?
P.S. USA is much safer there. They have great lands+climate conditions but their multi cultural mix is a ticking time bomb. If times become hard enough, we will see Civil War again.
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Well, I dunno man, I live in the 21st century and in my times, everyone who bet against the dollar lost.
Crypto was supposed to replace old people's fiat dollar. Didn't happen.
The rupee was supposed to replace the dollar. Didn't happen.
US was supposed to collapse under its own debt in 2010, 2015 and then in 2020. Didn't happen.
Crypto was supposed to replace old people's fiat dollar. Didn't happen.
The rupee was supposed to replace the dollar. Didn't happen.
US was supposed to collapse under its own debt in 2010, 2015 and then in 2020. Didn't happen.
Dollar is not PetroDollar anymore. This petrodollar deal with UAE was one of the big reasons for US dollars value. Now countries can negotiate how they want to buy.
What I see is, countries will demand products/services in exchange for same especially BRICS members. If not, then settle in commodities.
Consider this, If US wants to buy something they would print some dollar and buys it.
However, if we have to buy something from US then we have to earn that dollar by selling something of real(product/service) value to them and then buy.
This for US is called "Paise ped pe ugte h".
Also what I see to be happening in future, If US wants to sell something then with the current wages everything they produce will be very expensive compared to other countries. So, they will have to devalue their currency if they want to compete internationally.
Kaagaj ka jumla dilkha k kuch b khareed lo aisa nhi chalne wala.
One thing to keep an eye on is Japan and china USD reserves. once they start dumping it then all hell breaks loose.
What I see is, countries will demand products/services in exchange for same especially BRICS members. If not, then settle in commodities.
Consider this, If US wants to buy something they would print some dollar and buys it.
However, if we have to buy something from US then we have to earn that dollar by selling something of real(product/service) value to them and then buy.
This for US is called "Paise ped pe ugte h".
Also what I see to be happening in future, If US wants to sell something then with the current wages everything they produce will be very expensive compared to other countries. So, they will have to devalue their currency if they want to compete internationally.
Kaagaj ka jumla dilkha k kuch b khareed lo aisa nhi chalne wala.
One thing to keep an eye on is Japan and china USD reserves. once they start dumping it then all hell breaks loose.
Kevin Lane
Galvanizer
US is duping their citizens by making them believe this already.
I am not sure this was ever considered. (I am not saying it's impossible!
)A couple of indicators...
1. US Debt to GDP ratio was below 100% till 2012. No longer. (Till 1985 max was 40%, Till 2010, max was 60%). Something go to give here.
2. First time in History, US interest outlay is more than defense spending. Projections are that this will continue. Pound was reserve currency before Dollar, time when this Happened with UK, Pound lost it's reserve currency status to Dollar.