Putin is not going to accept a deal without permanently acceding the Russian people areas of Ukraine - basically the territories that Russia is holding now. Else he will lose face among his supporters back home as the saviour of the Russian people and a bulwark against the “decadent” west. esp. with much more hardliners than him who could replace him. and he will lose the chance to get a Russian sympathiser elected in Ukraine.
Zelensky is not going to accept any deal as this would mean Ukraine has to conduct elections. In which he would lose as there is a lot corruption allegations on his govt diverting US funds to politician/bureaucrat offshore accounts than buying weapons etc then war fatigue and general resentment as even older men are forcibly conscripted to a war which is perceived as a “meat grinder” except for some wins through drones.
Trump would badly need a deal to fulfill one of his major campaign promise as he is failing in another major promise (Epstein files) but would be constrained by the US deep state the military industrial complex. Maybe the USDS and MIC would take a redacted Epstein files as a bargain for losing face in the current deal. But US goals of installing a US sympathiser in Ukraine to take advantage of its resources will conflict with the same goals of Russia.
EU would also badly need a deal as they are literally bankrupting themselves with trying to fund the war and brain dead net zero energy policies to the point of accelerating degrowth. Their economies are barely holding up due to some austerity measures and importing millions of cheap labour - working age immigrants - from third world countries, a policy which is building a lot of resentment and rise of right wing popular leaders. The EU ruling establishment can hold only so long. They badly need to get off this virtue signalling train without losing much face.
Man this is such a chakravyuh!! Good luck to the negotiators. High chance that Trump could angrily crash out of this with a spectacle
You answered it yourself. they are now tired to just continue without any results.
Low intensity? will still require both sides to continue use resources making it harder for Russian economy to sustain and with USA putting pressure on whatever allies or partners Russian may have like India and China.
Russia cannot just wait forever. Their people are getting tired.
For Putin, it is a game to toy around with world leaders and this is just another instance of it. He will not compromise without getting the whole of Donbas and he knows he can continue the war much longer with the oil money from India and China that Ukraine can with EU money.
Trump is just desperate to do something to fulfil his obsession about the Nobel peace prize. If at least a permanent ceasefire doesn’t materialise in a month or so, he will just pivot to MAGA agenda again and say his sanctions and tariffs have done the job.
Europe and USA could also continue supporting Ukraine but lets not forget this is not just about Money.
Body bags just keep on coming.
Both sides have lost lot of people.
When i was in Russia …Even i was offered to join Army with Handsome Pay.
By God’s grace I did not had too.
People from other countries are fighting for them too now.
Human cost has now reached a level where this war needs to either end with immediate understanding between 2 parties. otherwise One is surely going to see something like Japan.
The human factor is real but again Russia has an upper hand over there with mercenaries, conscripts and North Korean soldiers compared to the arms length approach of EU. Either way Russia has more cards on the table against Ukraine, so it is a question of whether Ukraine will compromise even more, knowing that Russia will simply attack again from the captured regions in the future.
NATO officially doesn’t want to be a party in the war because the entire Russian reason for doing so was NATO interference. Russia will definitely require Ukraine to never join the NATO or for NATO to enter into Ukraine for a ceasefire agreement.
Only compromise Russia would make right now is to stop at the occupied territories instead of asking for the whole of Donbas.
Why would Russia attack Ukraine after winning the Donbas?
What is the incentive.
The war began because for eight years it was the Uki’s shelling the Donbas. I’ve explained n numerous fora that once you start shelling a people you lose the right to call them your people.
Then of course mentioning India’s over half century experience with numerous insurgencies minus the shelling.
If he doesn’t get a suitable offer he continues to increase his share of Donbas. That was always the goal right from the start.
Ambiguous statement.
The intent is for peacekeeping and nothing else as Russia’s nuclear deterrence kept them out of a more active role.
Now Putin has refused to accept this offer. Knowing full well it reverses things for him.