Corona virus in China

Engineer.AI said:
Seeing ANY OF the measures my major countries of the world, does not inspire confidence one bit. In my opinion, something Trump said, really put things into perspective for how these 1% (the leaders of the world), are planning on dealing with this epidemic right now.

edition.cnn.com

Trump says coronavirus will 'disappear' eventually

President Donald Trump expressed optimism Thursday that the novel coronavirus would eventually be contained and eliminated in the United States, even as he acknowledged it could get worse first.
edition.cnn.com edition.cnn.com

He may be dumb, but his senility exposes the inner machinations of the geopolitical structure rn - as with Sars, as with Mers; the epidemic came with a bang, flatlined, and then vanished as a memory for so many people. Trump is being coy about this, but it really is alarming to say the least.
~Engineer.AI
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The difference with SARS is people got sick first then they became transmitters. With COVID, they may show no symptoms yet still be spreaders and in some cases super spreaders as happened with a church in Korea. Korea has completed testing of over a 100k people. That's why the numbers of affected spiked.

Where the Americans are being late is testing. Their numbers are low because their testing is only in the hundreds to date. Meaning, once they ramp up testing which will happen once the test kits are ready in just over a week's time then the number of affected in the US will go up.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Coronavirus update: World pharma supplier India restricts export of some ingredients, drugs | India Business News - Times of India

India Business News: India, the world's main supplier of generic drugs has restricted export of 26 pharmaceutical ingredients and drugs made from them, including paracetam
timesofindia.indiatimes.com timesofindia.indiatimes.com

It means we think we will need them. So bad news for our customers :(

The way the virus goes away is it mutates into something less deadly .There is an inverse relation between virulence & transmissibility. More virulent less it spreads and vice versa.
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First SMS from the govt i got

Novel Coronavirus spread can be stopped.
Cover your mouth properly while coughing & sneezing. Wash hands with soap frequently. Avoid touching your eyes, nose & mouth.
Avoid close contact with anyone with cough,fever or difficulty in breathing
If required contact nearest health facility or dial helpline No. 01123978046
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See how the Vietnamese Health dept did it :D

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psyph3r said:
The total deaths caused in a month by dengue, malaria, cholera and diarrhoea in India are probably twenty times higher than this Corona Extra.
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I can't find any info on number of deaths for these diseases. So what is your source for this twenty times higher per month

Number of cases ? yes. There are loads

Only H1n1 deaths are mentioned

H1N1 deaths.png

264 on March 2019, varies depending on the month

US loses many more more to flu annually.
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Actually the ministry of health & family welfare has put out quite a few vids in the last few days




Testing numbers look decent so far

As of Mar 05

3,542 tested, 29 positive, 3,513 negative, 92 in the process. Out of the 29 positive, 23 are being re-tested in Pune

This means pretty much every one that arrives here from affected countries gets screened automatically. This happens currrently in 30 airports across the country

They've already cancelled Indian visas for people coming from those countries.

The Americans have only managed a few hundred to date which is bad. CDC are still working on their test kits. I expect their affected to spike as a result in the coming weeks.

South Korea has conducted over 100k tests

China's testing rate is 1.5 million per week.
 
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blr_p said:
The difference with SARS is people got sick first then they became transmitters. With COVID, they may show no symptoms yet still be spreaders and in some cases super spreaders as happened with a church in Korea. Korea has completed testing of over a 100k people. That's why the numbers of affected spiked.

Where the Americans are being late is testing. Their numbers are low because their testing is only in the hundreds to date. Meaning, once they ramp up testing which will happen once the test kits are ready in just over a week's time then the number of affected in the US will go up.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Coronavirus update: World pharma supplier India restricts export of some ingredients, drugs | India Business News - Times of India

India Business News: India, the world's main supplier of generic drugs has restricted export of 26 pharmaceutical ingredients and drugs made from them, including paracetam
timesofindia.indiatimes.com timesofindia.indiatimes.com

It means we think we will need them. So bad news for our customers :(

The way the virus goes away is it mutates into something less deadly .There is an inverse relation between virulence & transmissibility. More virulent less it spreads and vice versa.
Post automatically merged:

First SMS from the govt i got



See how the Vietnamese Health dept did it :D

Post automatically merged:



I can't find any info on number of deaths for these diseases. So what is your source for this twenty times higher per month

Number of cases ? yes. There are loads

Only H1n1 deaths are mentioned

View attachment 84793

264 on March 2019, varies depending on the month

US loses many more more to flu annually.
Post automatically merged:

Actually the ministry of health & family welfare has put out quite a few vids in the last few days




Testing numbers look decent so far

As of Mar 05

3,542 tested, 29 positive, 3,513 negative, 92 in the process. Out of the 29 positive, 23 are being re-tested in Pune

This means pretty much every one that arrives here from affected countries gets screened automatically. This happens currrently in 30 airports across the country

They've already cancelled Indian visas for people coming from those countries.

The Americans have only managed a few hundred to date which is bad. CDC are still working on their test kits. I expect their affected to spike as a result in the coming weeks.

South Korea has conducted over 100k tests

China's testing rate is 1.5 million per week.
Click to expand...

Coronavirus has been spreading with great fervor in many parts of the word, with the risk of getting infecteded higher among children and the elderly.
~Engineer,AI
 

TB Statistics India

TB statistics including national target and actual notified figures for both public & private sectors. Figures for each state.
tbfacts.org tbfacts.org

9,700 deaths in 2018 so that about 800 per month for TB alone

Friend of mine tells me he's worried about his wife & kid. They're in Rome right now. They left on a trip middle Feb to the UK & France and returning later this month. Fools!!

He does not know what will happen when they arrive in India.

If this govt is serious they should be quarantined. Privileged guests of the govt at some army camp for at least 14 days if not 28.

If they were returning from China this would happen already but its not clear about Italy.

Italy has decided to quarantine the north yesterday. Some 16 million live in that region. Cannot enter or leave.

North of Italy is the industrial heart. 40% of Italy's GDP comes from there.

It's a bit late but coalition govt in Italy means confusion. The governors of the area wanted this a month ago. Rome refused. Thought it over the top and economically reckless.

So far i'm seeing a common pattern when it comes to dealing with this epidemic in China, Italy & US.

Woefully under prepared and not taking it seriously when they should have. US has yet to get their testing going due to their own mismanagement.

China can be excused since they did not know what they were up against. They should have cancelled new years's celebrations but it seems there are some things even dictatorships cannot do. The situation is better in China now but letting people out is the tricky part. April or May.

UV kills the virus. Since things are heating up here we have a buffer until the monsoons start.

July Aug after that is it game on for this virus in India.

journals.plos.org

Influenza Virus Transmission Is Dependent on Relative Humidity and Temperature

Author SummaryIn temperate regions influenza epidemics recur with marked seasonality: in the northern hemisphere the influenza season spans November to March, while in the southern hemisphere epidemics last from May until September. Although seasonality is one of the most familiar features of...
journals.plos.org journals.plos.org

Paper talks about influenza. The thinking is maybe covid is similar but its not confirmed yet.

They spread if its cold & dry. Cooler & wet during monsoons isn't going to help this virus :)
 
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H1n1 started in Mexico btw back in 2009 ;)

Swine flu started in the US back in 1917, went across the world then came back in a second wave and killed 50 to 100 million of which 20 million just in India.

As to covid ?

 
Recent cases find that the cases from China have stopped (or at least the ones they would let out). Sadly, this is not the end as yet. Many fresh countries are experiencing their first bouts with the outbreak as we speak. It's still a long shot, but things can only get better from here.
~Engineer.AI
 
dpandey said:
Some comic relief :)

www.thegatewaypundit.com

Pakistani Immigrant Who Delivered Chinese Food Tested Positive for Coronavirus But Refused to Quarantine Himself | The Gateway Pundit | by Jim Hoft

This article was updated to reflect the Pakistani man continued to deliver food after testing positive for coronavirus. But it is still not clear who is the “patient zero” in Italy.
www.thegatewaypundit.com www.thegatewaypundit.com
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It's a real problem.

What if you cannot tele commute.

What if you live day to day where if you do not work then you don't eat or can afford to pay rent.

Many people like this all over the world.
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Engineer.AI said:
Recent cases find that the cases from China have stopped (or at least the ones they would let out). Sadly, this is not the end as yet. Many fresh countries are experiencing their first bouts with the outbreak as we speak. It's still a long shot, but things can only get better from here.
~Engineer.AI
Click to expand...
They have not stopped, for the last 4 days they've not found a single case in the entire country, including Hubei. Other than Wuhan.

It does show social distancing can work. They are also aggressively testing to the tune of over a million a week.

We've tested around 4k so far.

Govt sayas they have screened over eight and half lakhs since this began at the airport. But that is only thermal screening.

thermal screening.jpg


Not very effective but makes people think we are doing something

www.medrxiv.org

Effectiveness of airport screening at detecting travellers infected with 2019-nCoV

As the number of novel coronavirus cases grows both inside and outside of China, public health authorities require evidence on the effectiveness of control measures such as thermal screening of arrivals at airports. We evaluated the effectiveness of exit and entry screening for 2019-nCoV...
www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
 
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The threat is very much alive, although precautions are being taken. Like sand, our control over this outbreak keeps slipping, the tighter we seem to grasp it. There are the obvious miscreants who want to use this lethal virus for their gains, but there is also genuine work that is being done.
My only issue is that it is just not enough.
~Engineer.AI
 
Another data visualisation, check the channel for up to date numbers,


I now see Italy only shows up after Feb 20 and shoots to the top 3.

My friends wife & kid had no idea when they left for the UK Feb 14.

He's sent them to the UK since UK is accepting flights from Italy.

But the Indian govt is insisting on anyone arriving from Italy come with a doctors cert saying they are tested negative. Italian doctors won't test people that have no symptoms as these kits are in short supply presumably. So they are stuck in italy and want the MEA to fly a doctor over.

 
Experts have managed to engineer AI tracking bots, which are able to monitor the rise and spread of Coronavirus, through reports, and medical submissions. There is, however, state sponsored technology that would help curtail this existential threat to mankind. The maximum we can hope for now, is the timely quarantine of those affected by this deadly disease.
~Engineer.AI
 
ONly detailed resource I can find from an expert. Says not much data on spreading through hand/eye, can spread very easily just by breathing around
 
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