Yeah, with the help of lockdowns, doctors & nurses getting horribly insufficient rest and vacations for years, and then - wait for it - vaccines being released before restrictions on people movement could be lifted and human rights for doctors&nurses being restored. So most people survived without vaccines because of vaccines.
Health & Fitness COVID Vaccine Experience and your preference.
- Thread starter samiryadav
- Start date
That is good. Just to clarify that the post is not to create any negativity against vaccines in general, but anybody is suffering from side effects, there should be proper studies and those effects should be mitigated. Such studies may also bring in better research and remedies to existing or other health issues.
Rather than taking a stonewalled approach or opinion that every company made the bestest vaccine ever available so quick without any concerns whatsoever. That too is science I mean.
Most people got Covid19, some got before vaccination and survived, others after vaccination.
btw, Not debating about goodness of vaccines, but if there are any side-effects, that should can be researched and mitigated. Which can help people in different ways.
thomasjude47
Explorer
There is no perfect vaccine or medicine. It's always risk vs benefit.
Yep, exactly why research is ongoing and new findings are happening. Which may help people in many ways, good !
Yeah, like I'm surviving without water (for last 37 minutes). In a few minutes I'll drink water just for 7 seconds and I'll survive without water again for more than an hour.
Water mostly unnecessary, and dangerous too.
Well, arguably, the unvaccinated populations of those countries also faced the risk of death from those variants so their mortality should still be higher. I believe we can still compare all-cause mortality to test whether the vaccines were effective - maybe not precisely but definitely broadly. Please do let me know if you have reasons otherwise.
Second - are you sure that unvaccinated populations would cause more mutations (based on evidence). Thinking out aloud, but won't vaccine itself also create evolutionary pressure for the MRNA virus to mutate? If vaccines actually generate better immunity, I believe it should lead to more pressure not less. Please feel free to share any link to studies that has evidence regarding MRNA viruses, because they mutate more than others.
Yes, by ignoring virus evolution and crowd immunity we can.
Like by ignoring "carry", 77+4=71. Ignoring reality is magical.
Edit : and also ignoring the effect of longer lockdowns on survival rates of health care professionals and other aspects of civilization.
And you believe we "can" compare, while others have already believed the comparison already happened and people "survived" without vaccines.
I am not sure how you can "ignore" virus evolution at all in a population data study - since virus evolution is reality (whatever the cause) and so is crowd immunity. The only difference between the populations that were vaccinated and not is the vaccination. If anything, you can test the base case hypothesis that unvaccinated populations would be more affected by mutants (Regardless of what generated the mutations), resulting in higher mortality.
And I am sure you have worthy intentions, but the carry example was a strawman. I assure you I can add btw
Please listen to me. I am talking about analyzing retrospective data to see whether the "survival" assumption reflects in the all-cause mortality (Change between pre and post pandemic rates). It shouldn't bother you or anyone at the proposal stage. I think the data should support your case (not my skepticism).
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LOLz. You should be fun at parties.
There are people in this very website who didn't vaccinate till 2024 and didn't die yet. Someone even was asking to get vaccinated for certificate's sake. As far as you drinking water or not drinking water... haha
Ok, I can prove that I don't have to prove that. It is not necessary that unvaccinated populations cause "more" mutations - any mutation could be the end game mutation. It has already happened that the delta variant was more deadly than previous ones for many people. And that was one that to all appearances developed in an overwhelmingly unvaccinated populace. Omicron may have been more contagious but was clearly less deadly than delta. And omicron developed in a world where vaccines were talking hold. Not only were lockdowns much less prevalent, health care professionals could breathe a bit.
So clearly vaccines have already saved the civilization. To prove that it would have happened without vaccines, the burden of proof rests squarely on your shoulders.
You say a study "can" be done, yet are unable to do it. Like one can say fusion reactors "can" be made, so coal/nuclear fission/hydropower are not really fundamental to our civilization. "Can" is useless in the absence of "did".
I can't, but apparently you can. The whole premise of your post to which I was replying there fundamentally rests on the foundation of ignoring reality.
Yeah they got no benefit of others getting vaccinated. Zilch. And many survived the black death too - that didn't mean the civilization wasn't fundamentally altered. And that was with a much less connected world.
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It is a strawman. You seem to have a bias which makes you ignore the obvious.
Kiran calm down and try to listen to what others are saying. You responded to a strawman.
Because this is not my profession, I am a risk analyst / systems researcher and while I can do it in some years, both you and I know that such studies can't be commissioned at the drop of a hat. This is about the idea that in the big picture, mortality data should support the argument that vaccines save lives.
Incidentally I just looked up all cause mortality data for 14 most and least vaccinated countries: Calculations in MS Excel
| Index (2015=100) | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Deaths /1000 people | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
| Macao | 100 | 101.4 | 103.1 | 102.4 | 106.8 | 94.1 | 109.3 | 142.6 | 118.6 | 4.043 | 4.099 | 4.168 | 4.142 | 4.319 | 3.806 | 4.417 | 5.765 | 4.795 | ||
| Brunei | 100 | 102.9 | 105.9 | 109.0 | 112.3 | 115.6 | 123.1 | 154.1 | 122.9 | 4.256 | 4.381 | 4.509 | 4.641 | 4.779 | 4.922 | 5.238 | 6.559 | 5.23 | ||
| United Arab Emirates | 100 | 98.6 | 95.0 | 93.7 | 93.8 | 109.5 | 123.2 | 115.6 | 91.3 | 1.021 | 1.007 | 0.97 | 0.957 | 0.958 | 1.118 | 1.258 | 1.18 | 0.932 | ||
| Qatar | 100 | 94.8 | 92.9 | 90.4 | 86.7 | 108.6 | 108.6 | 96.1 | 95.9 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.901 | 0.877 | 0.841 | 1.053 | 1.053 | 0.932 | 0.93 | ||
| Samoa | 100 | 100.5 | 100.7 | 101.5 | 107.8 | 107.3 | 105.8 | 102.1 | 101.7 | 6.056 | 6.087 | 6.1 | 6.147 | 6.529 | 6.496 | 6.405 | 6.181 | 6.157 | ||
| Nepal | 100 | 95.7 | 95.7 | 95.7 | 95.1 | 98.5 | 105.1 | 93.3 | 93.9 | 7.385 | 7.065 | 7.07 | 7.07 | 7.024 | 7.272 | 7.761 | 6.888 | 6.932 | ||
| Chile | 100 | 99.7 | 98.9 | 101.5 | 105.8 | 121.1 | 125.4 | 124.0 | 106.4 | 6.106 | 6.086 | 6.037 | 6.196 | 6.46 | 7.393 | 7.655 | 7.573 | 6.495 | ||
| Malta | 100 | 99.0 | 97.0 | 99.8 | 100.5 | 108.9 | 110.0 | 111.9 | 106.0 | 6.955 | 6.883 | 6.746 | 6.938 | 6.988 | 7.575 | 7.653 | 7.785 | 7.371 | ||
| Portugal | 100 | 102.1 | 101.6 | 104.9 | 103.3 | 113.8 | 115.0 | 117.3 | 108.2 | 10.275 | 10.486 | 10.439 | 10.776 | 10.616 | 11.697 | 11.812 | 12.049 | 11.113 | ||
| Nicaragua | 100 | 99.3 | 99.1 | 96.8 | 99.1 | 133.4 | 132.5 | 94.0 | 91.8 | 4.993 | 4.959 | 4.949 | 4.832 | 4.95 | 6.663 | 6.618 | 4.691 | 4.586 | ||
| Cuba | 100 | 103.5 | 108.6 | 108.1 | 110.1 | 114.0 | 167.2 | 112.7 | 111.2 | 9.123 | 9.44 | 9.91 | 9.866 | 10.047 | 10.403 | 15.253 | 10.286 | 10.147 | ||
| Vietnam | 100 | 100.7 | 101.4 | 101.8 | 102.4 | 94.5 | 108.1 | 105.4 | 106.9 | 6.153 | 6.195 | 6.238 | 6.263 | 6.3 | 5.813 | 6.653 | 6.488 | 6.577 | ||
| China | 100 | 101.2 | 104.3 | 103.0 | 104.3 | 107.1 | 110.6 | 113.2 | 120.4 | 6.82 | 6.9 | 7.115 | 7.024 | 7.115 | 7.301 | 7.543 | 7.717 | 8.213 | ||
| Peru | 100 | 100.0 | 101.1 | 102.3 | 102.0 | 122.8 | 154.0 | 105.8 | 91.0 | 6.037 | 6.036 | 6.102 | 6.173 | 6.16 | 7.415 | 9.297 | 6.389 | 5.491 | ||
| Top 14 Average | 100 | 100.4 | 101.3 | 102.1 | 103.6 | 110.9 | 123.0 | 112.8 | 106.0 | 5.73 | 5.75 | 5.80 | 5.85 | 5.93 | 6.35 | 7.04 | 6.46 | 6.07 | ||
| Burundi | 100 | 94.5 | 90.5 | 87.0 | 85.1 | 82.8 | 84.1 | 80.5 | 77.3 | 8.688 | 8.209 | 7.864 | 7.559 | 7.394 | 7.191 | 7.306 | 6.997 | 6.718 | ||
| Yemen | 100 | 97.8 | 97.8 | 105.9 | 101.5 | 101.0 | 103.1 | 90.6 | 83.0 | 5.773 | 5.647 | 5.644 | 6.114 | 5.859 | 5.832 | 5.953 | 5.232 | 4.792 | ||
| Haiti | 100 | 100.1 | 98.0 | 97.3 | 96.7 | 101.7 | 109.8 | 101.6 | 96.0 | 8.143 | 8.15 | 7.977 | 7.927 | 7.876 | 8.284 | 8.941 | 8.272 | 7.817 | ||
| Papua New Guinea | 100 | 99.1 | 98.4 | 97.9 | 97.4 | 100.3 | 106.2 | 100.6 | 95.8 | 6.804 | 6.744 | 6.692 | 6.661 | 6.624 | 6.824 | 7.229 | 6.846 | 6.516 | ||
| Madagascar | 100 | 99.9 | 100.3 | 100.4 | 100.8 | 105.5 | 106.4 | 103.6 | 100.9 | 7.461 | 7.452 | 7.48 | 7.491 | 7.518 | 7.869 | 7.94 | 7.728 | 7.528 | ||
| Congo | 100 | 98.0 | 96.0 | 94.3 | 102.5 | 94.9 | 96.2 | 91.7 | 87.7 | 7.166 | 7.026 | 6.881 | 6.758 | 7.344 | 6.798 | 6.897 | 6.571 | 6.288 | ||
| Gabon | 100 | 98.4 | 96.9 | 95.5 | 93.8 | 95.7 | 95.3 | 91.3 | 87.8 | 7.138 | 7.024 | 6.918 | 6.817 | 6.693 | 6.831 | 6.802 | 6.519 | 6.269 | ||
| Cameroon | 100 | 96.8 | 94.0 | 91.6 | 88.7 | 88.1 | 89.8 | 83.4 | 77.7 | 9.2 | 8.908 | 8.65 | 8.431 | 8.163 | 8.107 | 8.258 | 7.673 | 7.151 | ||
| Senegal | 100 | 98.0 | 96.2 | 95.7 | 95.2 | 95.6 | 98.3 | 92.5 | 87.9 | 7.55 | 7.40 | 7.26 | 7.22 | 7.18 | 7.22 | 7.42 | 6.98 | 6.63 | ||
| Mali | 100 | 98.5 | 97.1 | 96.9 | 96.7 | 97.5 | 100.3 | 94.2 | 89.5 | 7.40 | 7.29 | 7.19 | 7.18 | 7.16 | 7.22 | 7.43 | 6.98 | 6.62 | ||
| Algeria | 100 | 98.6 | 97.0 | 96.1 | 96.2 | 97.2 | 100.1 | 94.6 | 90.1 | 7.61 | 7.50 | 7.38 | 7.31 | 7.32 | 7.39 | 7.61 | 7.20 | 6.85 | ||
| Syria | 100 | 98.4 | 96.9 | 95.9 | 96.1 | 96.6 | 98.8 | 93.6 | 89.3 | 7.54 | 7.42 | 7.31 | 7.23 | 7.25 | 7.28 | 7.45 | 7.06 | 6.73 | ||
| Equatorial Guinea | 100 | 98.3 | 96.7 | 95.7 | 96.0 | 96.2 | 97.9 | 92.9 | 88.6 | 7.63 | 7.50 | 7.38 | 7.30 | 7.33 | 7.34 | 7.48 | 7.09 | 6.76 | ||
| Burkina Faso | 100 | 98.1 | 96.3 | 95.1 | 95.4 | 95.0 | 96.9 | 91.6 | 87.1 | 7.65 | 7.51 | 7.37 | 7.28 | 7.31 | 7.27 | 7.42 | 7.01 | 6.66 | ||
| Bottom 14 Average | 100 | 98.1 | 96.3 | 95.2 | 94.6 | 95.0 | 97.0 | 91.5 | 87.0 | 7.72 | 7.57 | 7.43 | 7.35 | 7.30 | 7.33 | 7.48 | 7.06 | 6.71 |
Death/1000 people: https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...exes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=None
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Yeah people don't travel between countries. And lower vaccination rates have zero correlation with lower health care record keeping. And lower historical health care standards have no correlation with general immunity. Got it.
Sorry, my mistake. Correction: RNA viruses.
This is an unfortunate (and smug response, apparently because you're too sure that your understanding/view is true and any alternatives aren't to be considered) - which shows that in the face of statistical signal (not proof) that shows the need to be dispassionate, you (and many) would cling to convenient theories that support their view.
Off course there can be many reasons, but can you coherently use the causes that you mentioned to even theorize how those causes would ultimately cause lower mortality among the unvaccinated? And can you dismiss even the chance (howsoever low) that your theories might be wrong?
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Not "causes", but "correlations". Surely you have heard that they are not the same a trillion times before dabbling in a field clearly and admittedly outside your field of expertise?
They don't "cause" lower mortality, they "appear" to do so in bad data tables, like yours.
Just kindergarten stuff, but for completion the easiest example:
low vaccination rates -- (correlation)--> low record-keeping -> more unrecorded deaths -> recorded deaths meaningless.
Yeah, Covid19 caused more death percentage-wise than how black death decimated entire population denominations.
Just like your personal water drinking metaphor.
Don't know why discussions here have to go so hurt and haywire like this, when research here is only about certain group of people who faced side effects and that is apparently scientifically proved.
Oh well, I do know that correlations are usually used as proxies to establish "relations" between variables and can be used as statistical "signals" for deeper studies. Luckily I also know that there are statistical tests or causality - but those don't really measure causality because statistical causality isn't really causality but an agreement among statisticians that a certain metric implies causality. Causality is almost the hard problems of natural sciences, and I presume you already know that.
And on what basis did you comment on what my field of expertise is? Can you not discuss something based on reason without resorting to a logical fallacy called Ad-hominem? Also just to clarify I have dealt in statistical analysis / econometrics for 13 years + 2 as an intern, and I am a systems researcher now. I would not make aspersions on your expertise, but you would do well to not attack people and attack ideas instead.
It seems that you are clutching at the straws. I chose all-cause mortality (not covid deaths) - because very few countries (almost none) can game all-cause mortality data because not recording deaths allows frauds of all kinds, including but not limited to pension and tax fraud and it hurts the government exchequer. That said, there is room to still analyze data among cohorts of more transparent countries to see what it shows.
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How can I comment that someone's field of expertise is not math when they say 77+4=71 ?
You are just a first-rate arrogant individual incapable and non-deserving of civil discussions. It is good that TE has an ignore option.
thomasjude47
Explorer