INR being killed in the FX market

[sharktale1212]

This.
I was having a long discussion with one of my acquaintances who is quite knowledgable in these matters. He also told me many insightful details on the American economy and how dollar functions.
The best part of the discussion was when he told me about the 'American Housing Bubble burst' and how it was a big, govt sanctioned scam on the world.

Actually what is happening now is even bigger scam and sheer scale puts 'American Housing Bubble' to shame. This whole slide is just the tip of the iceberg. It might be sometime when the actual thing really happens. When it hits it will be hyperinflation and contraction both at the same time. Think Japan in the 90s but multiplied by 10

 

[blr_p]

The way I see it politicians would be cashing in their Hawala investments as congress fears for not coming into power for next 10-15 years(at least).

What makes you say that ? i think the chances of congress winning the next elections are better than even. As they are better at making coalitions than BJP.

 

[Spacescreamer]

1) What does all this dissection and discussion leads to?
We keep analysing what WENT wrong, and never speak about WHAT SHOULD be done.

We as more responsible citizens should come up with steps to ensure the protest is visible to the gfn govt as well as the world.
I think more effective work can be done by NRIs on this front. Cuz they ll be effectively out of the jurisdiction of the govt and its installations.

2) (i) What has our media done to analyse and bring up issues we are currently facing? Is the media so bloody afraid of the govt that they cannot even run a series of comparison/analysis vis a vis India and other developed/developing countries ever since the FDI money was an all time high?

(ii) Apart from that, media has failed us on many fronts. For eg, No clear news on what basic civic necessities are absent in xyz state/area and a concerted effort to force the govt to take action.

 

[avi]

Aint it funny that the country with the biggest debt is ruling the world
Read some where that The entire amount of the world's currencies cannot repay USA's debt.

 

[MAGNeT]

Its true but before this EURO mess it was ultimately the dollar bubble which would had bursted.
But now things are changing for UNCLE SAM.They are now not the number 1 importer of oil in the world but now its CHINA.Also down the line its being said they will become biggest exporter of GAS thanks to shale gas discovery.Sooner or later it will be other way round.
And regarding dollar repayment of US.Which is the other currency to replace dollar?Gold cant become the next currency.Earlier it was said EURO and unless a replacement comes it wont default.

 

[6pack]

I don't think shale oil will be viable. Its just microscopic amounts of oil trapped in rock.
How is Chinese yuan or Japanese yen as next successor for us dollar?

 

[rishabh.asthana]

I don't think shale oil will be viable. Its just microscopic amounts of oil trapped in rock.
How is Chinese yuan or Japanese yen as next successor for us dollar?

Chinese Yuan is a state controlled currency and is not bound by market rules. Yen itself is too volatile.

With current oil prices shale gas/oil is very viable ( 3 trillion barrels in US).

 

[blr_p]

I don't think shale oil will be viable. Its just microscopic amounts of oil trapped in rock.

Depends which country you're talking about. The US has a better chance than most of not only making shale oil viable but also becoming self-sufficient in the next couple of decades. The simple reason is fracking requires lots of water.

For shale oil to be viable for China or India is another question entirely. But the US becoming less dependent on conventional oil is only a good thing for everybody in Asia.

Yuan isn't going to become a global currency any time soon. Oil is going to continue to be denominated in dollars.

 

[MAGNeT]

I don't think shale oil will be viable. Its just microscopic amounts of oil trapped in rock.
How is Chinese yuan or Japanese yen as next successor for us dollar?

Chinese Yuan/Renminbi cant be bet because its totally controlled by their government.And already lot of growth figures in CHINA is said to be fake and also no one can verify same because of the countries strict control over its media.
No one will like to buy chinese argument even if they want to be their currency to be global.Its the number 1 country in world which shouldn't be trusted i feel.
Regarding Japanaese ..well their money is already heavily depreciated.Its true value can be compared with a dollar how much hurt it is.
Japanese people no doubt hard working is unfortunately is the most unlucky country.Whenever country does well they are hit by earthquake or TSunami.Also wherever they put their money as investment ,the falls start.
Its history,In investing line people say when the Germans and japanese start investing be sure the market will fall now on.Even the latest fall here when started just few months back the japanese had or have started to investing here.
Now since no money is looking to be an alternative this BIT-COIN is started being promoted by many though i feel it can easily be manipulated.

 

[Kilroyquasar]

i don't have much knowledge in this regard, but as per the various debates and discussions i have read/seen on this subject, FDI is not entirely going to revive a sinking boat for us, but encouraging the domestic-market, small-scale and large-scale manufacturing sector, and in turn, our exports (which are negligible any how, whereas our forex-reserves, on which the govt. seems to be taking some pride and respite, are not 'earned', and almost everything is in the form of volatile short-term investments, which can be pulled out at any time!) would be the key to revival here, even beneficial in the long run. and i think we know all too well how much focus of our successive governments and 'dynasty-rules/regimes' have had on this part. such measures, if they had been taken 5 years or a decade ago, would have had started providing their good fruits now!!

(and to make matters worse, its also being said that the current nincompoop-regime is showing a facade of a relaxed composure on this front because they know very well that they are going to be kicked-out-for-good the next year, and hence want to offload this gargantuan task to be handled by the successive govt.).

 

[TEUser2K1]

Indian US$ reserves would have increased in value now ? Will India be using this opportunity to pay back some debts ?

India severely lacks in manufacturing and in power generation. If small homes can go with solar /wind /alternative power generation, it will ease load on power grid and give more to industries. In many places power is sold cheap, they need to increase the cost of power sold and use money to finance more power plants till it become viable.
Huge Nuclear power facilities are not a good option for country like India, expensive and we are bad at maintaining such tech unless for research purpose.

Today's market crash is told to be because of Food Security Bill which can added to burden on Govt. finances. Also, in long run who will do agriculture if food comes cheap ? It looks like a trap for future.

Interest rates given to big businesses and how they are using that money to manipulate markets needs to be checked.

 

[sharktale1212]

For all the theories given till now. I am not into bragging but there was a thread long ago by @Sei -- There I suggested the game over (or the suggestions of thereof) for Indian government started back in May-June 2011 when they issued smaller coins for Re1 etc. That told me the currency had been devalued stealthily and even the RBI agreed to it (nowadays "policies" notwithstanding). I was brushed off by some of the members. There I even made a claim of holding currency puts(in terms of INR ) from July 2011:
http://www.techenclave.com/communit...too-govt-in-denial.132657/page-4#post-1671003

As my profile said I work at a bank (though on IT side), my broker called me up today to ask why I was holding a negative interest bearing position for so long. He thought some foul play - insider info was involved

In case of Food Scam bill - Its a steaming pile of shit -- UPA is passing every damn bill to line their pockets. On the other than, we cant really ask government to raise prices -- if they do there will be another thread -- Aam Admi getting killed in the Sabzi Market

 

[TEUser2K1]

^^ but Rupee (not just INR, but other currencies also) devaluation was fully agreed up on during Davos Conference while last global economic depression, I don't think it came unexpected.

There is no logic in higher USD when USA is biggest debt holder in the world.

 

[sharktale1212]

^^ Can you link to where you go this info from? Cause as far as I remember (and tried to look it up) there was no World Economic Forum which had this agreement (it would have been counter-productive. During last conference in Jan 2013, there was a JPY devaluation running in full swing -- was that too agreed upon fully? ) What I do remember, it was one of these conferences the term - "Currency Wars" - countries actively trying to devalue their currency - was coined by the Brazilian Fin Min.

And if it was agreed upon, then why are we even attributing individual government bills to daily crashes (ex. Todays fall to Food Security Bill). Wasn't devaluation the plan all along? So it doesn't really matter what the government does -- we have agreed to devalue on a world forum and need to abide by it.

There is some logic in high USD in spite of all the debt -- else we wouldnt be here now (other than Davos resolution of course).

That all said, I am outta this thread

 

[TEUser2K1]

^^ I have seen a reporting from CNBCTV18 with our Chiddu giving an interview in Davos. Still remember the snow in the background and all. Though it was not directly from Chiddu, interview talked about world leaders agreeing to keep dollar value high - of course not through any legal agreement, but that was the general idea. Can't find the link.

"There is some logic in high USD in spite of all the debt -- else we wouldnt be here now".
May be that is why we are still wanting to keep USD high ? May be such logics needs corrections time to time ?

 

[sharktale1212]

^^ Well I doubt it. you will not find any source cause it was never discussed.

As for logic correction --- debt is not the only parameter for currency valuation. Hence, the statement.

 

[manu1991]

hurray for Food Security.

 

[6pack]

In yesterdays news, I saw that govt wasted 8881 tonnes of foodgrains which they procured from farmers this year. Imagine how much people could have got food grains for free if they decided to distribute it instead of letting it rot in open.
Food security is just a big money making scam. The burden of that will be felt by middle class who will have to pay more taxes next year.

 

[raksrules]

I think many countries are applying visa restrictions because they probably think more people want to move out of India due to the state of country

 

[blr_p]

Really, saw that the GCC wants to create one visa for all the GCC (like the EU) instead of individual country visas. Because they want to promote tourism.