spindoctor
Explorer
and just in case you want the official response from nvidia
[H]ard|OCP - Nvidia Abandons Market?????
[H]ard|OCP - Nvidia Abandons Market?????
Graphic Cards Nvidia kills GTX285, GTX275, GTX260
- Thread starter iml3g3nd
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sato1986 said:
Lol not quite the hot-selling series yet. There is or rather was an nV card to counter an ATI card and that was the GTS/X 2XX series. Physx had nV play some shitty monopoly and there's nothing beyond that.
They've lowered the prices by a margin and that was the only probable move so long as the GT3XX series debuts. Pray and hope nV can retain the same legacy the G92 got them. Delay's fine so long as the card pwns everything else out there and they price it sensibly!
spindoctor said:
It may not stop the business all of a sudden, but at least the focus on GPU market is going to be less and less. Both Intel and AMD has CPU design capabilities as well as expertise with GPU's and both have plans to integrate high end GPU capabilities into their CPU's. Even otherwise, Intel and especially AMD are well equipped to design cost effective GPU's. nVidia on the otherhand may have the best performing monolithic GPU, but designing and selling them is not working out to nVidia's expectations. When ever AMD reduces prices, nVidia has to follow even if they cannot (Ex GTX280 forced price decreases after HD4870 release), to add to that they have to take the burden of any losses that their channel partners incur when they reduce prices. nVidia understands very well that all this is a disaster waiting to happen. It has to take serious steps now or else Intel and AMD are going to run it out of business in a couple of years. The only way out is reducing investments made on purely GPU design and use that for diversifying into other areas. Fermi sure looks like a step in that direction.
^ Okay then.. i'll ask 'em to launch their new product line tomorrow itself so you can buy the 5 series cards ASAP. :rofl:
Sad news! Especially for those who just purchased these GPUs lol
Sad news! Especially for those who just purchased these GPUs lol
spindoctor
Explorer
Lord Nemesis said:
a few points...
nvidia's maximum revenues come from the geforce series.
nvidia discrete gpus outnumber ati's by a ratio of about 2:1 (anecdotal evidence from the steam hardware survey)
nvidia is in a much stronger position financially than amd/ati.
seriously, they are just a few months late in this generation of gpus. why are people suddenly writing them off? and more so after we have been told what fermi is going to be, a monster of a cgpu rather than a simple 3d accelerator. it's an order of magnitude more complex than ati's offering. now all we have to see is if it performs better (and most people seem to think that it will).
the same thing happened when the g80 and r600 came out and and everyone predicted the end of ati. it didn't happen.
spindoctor said:
What I said is going to happen in the long run even if Fermi is successful. (which I am hoping would be successful). As long as nVidia desires to exist as an independent and profitable business they have to think about their future.
1. nVidia may have be getting a lot of revenue from GPU's now, but Intel and AMD have a lot of strategic advantage for the future that nVidia doen't unless it merges with one of either of these two. They know it well enough and they would not like to be caught dead when it happens and thats the kind of thinking that let many of the biggies survive the market. Why do you think AMD aquired ATi and got into the GPU business? They know that unless they do something Intel will run them out of business. It would be foolish of nVidia if they do not start investing the bulk of their revenues in something that will secure them their future.
2. As you yourself said, Fermi is not just a GPU, its intended to be first step towards something bigger thats going to secure them their future. They may market it as a GPU now, but in a 2~3 years GPU part will get neglibile focus (as in least investment) and the real focus will be on the bigger picture. The only scenario where I see nVidia of the future still putting the bulk of their investement in trying to create the most powerful GPU's is when their strategy to secure their future flops in the makret and they have no other thing to lean on except making GPU's
spindoctor
Explorer
^^ Huh.. I don't see where I claimed to know it for a fact (especially when I am talking about it in the future tense). I dare say even a noob would understand that Its a prediction for the future, not a fact. Its a prediction based on current facts I know and the behavior of some other companies under similar conditions and I am confident that it will happen. In fact I am also confident that if it doesn't happen, then nVidia would cease to exist in another 5 years.
However, if you still want to question it the same way you did, then I would like to ask you how you know for a fact that nVidia will not pull out investments from its GPU research/design given its strategic dis-advantages. Can you prove that it won't? Bottom line, your statement is also a prediction, not a fact.
However, if you still want to question it the same way you did, then I would like to ask you how you know for a fact that nVidia will not pull out investments from its GPU research/design given its strategic dis-advantages. Can you prove that it won't? Bottom line, your statement is also a prediction, not a fact.
spindoctor
Explorer
Lord Nemesis said:
because
a) they have said they won't. that's straight from the horse's mouth.
b) they are the largest discrete gpu company in the world. they have the largest marketshare. the majority of their revenues come from the 3d acceleration geforce series. they are a publicly traded company. a company doesn't just drop out of the market it is the world leader in because of expected competition. (edit - and for the record, i'm not sure where this dangerous competition is coming from. larrabee stinks. it is rumored that the gt300 will retain the performance crown. they are building the ion platform. and as much as these companies go at each other's throats, they all know that they need each other to keep going. and it keeps them honest. if one hardware manufacturer makes a dick move, they know for sure that the other company will benefit from it. so, in the end, they will all allow each other to co-exist).
c) they are very strong financially. in fact, there was an article somewhere which said that amd/ati is more likely to go bankrupt than nvidia.
i guess that's not good enough for you. the fact that a company states on the record that it is not leaving the high end gpu market obviously means that it will become a negligible focus for them in the future, right?
Oops sry for makig late entry!
Semiaccurate news are inaccurate so no more comments
hyeah:. Nvidia would rather sell itself to intel or enter partnernersip at the very least
Semiaccurate news are inaccurate so no more comments
hyeah:. Nvidia would rather sell itself to intel or enter partnernersip at the very leasthash said:
He's just a journo.. used to work for THE INQUIRER - Microprocessor, Server, Memory, PCS, Graphics, Networking, Storage
before he decided to move out on his own.
spindoctor
Explorer
just to add to the thread, nvidia is in pretty deep shit already. they have no dx11 part for the launch of win7 and the holiday shopping season, so they are going to lose out a lot to ati in the coming months.
they are not killing the high end gt200 parts though, because if they did, they would have nothing to sell. more likely that they are revising their production volumes downwards in preparation for the upcoming hardware manufacturing. it's not hard to understand why they would reduce volumes of the older series when the new ones are coming out. and this is done on a quarterly basis at least, not as a day to day decision. i'm pretty sure ati must have reduced production of the 4800 series as well when they started manufacturing the 5800 boards. so how come charlie didn't make an article out of that and say that ati was leaving the gpu business because they had stopped creating their top end video card?
they are not killing the high end gt200 parts though, because if they did, they would have nothing to sell. more likely that they are revising their production volumes downwards in preparation for the upcoming hardware manufacturing. it's not hard to understand why they would reduce volumes of the older series when the new ones are coming out. and this is done on a quarterly basis at least, not as a day to day decision. i'm pretty sure ati must have reduced production of the 4800 series as well when they started manufacturing the 5800 boards. so how come charlie didn't make an article out of that and say that ati was leaving the gpu business because they had stopped creating their top end video card?
spindoctor said:
And something that cannot be relied on. No companies going to reveal their strategies for the future before hand. Things like these can just be predicted. In anycase where did they mention anything about their long term plans? They just de-bunked the claims made by semi-accurate which even I agreed in the first post as without proof.
spindoctor said:
How do you know for a fact that GT300 is not going to flop or that larrabee will flop or that AMD does not have a secret ace up its sleeve to recover its dire financial position. Your facts/proof is only as good as mine and at the end of it all you have is predictions just like me.
Also your way of thinking is dangerous for any company which wants to survive in the market and be successful financially. If you know for a fact that someone else has strategic advantage, you would start preparing for it while you still have time. I am not saying they will abruptly stop all their GPU lineup one fine day, just that they will gradually reduce the focus from it. Their finances are currently running of GPU sales, but there is no gaurentee that it will last for ever, so they will gradually shift investments into other 'ace up the sleeve' projects. When they find that they can make much more profits in a new area in which they have relative strategic advantage, the decision to shift the bulk of the investment will come in automatically.
In fact let me tell you, my company landed in a bad situtation because of exactly your kind of thinking. My company enjoyed compete market monopoly for 20 years and the management didn't think the competition would ever catch up to us and just watched while the competion was making strategic aquisitions to get an advantage, we had investments in several projects, but they didn't ever think of reducing focus on the area in which the competition already got an advange and just kept investing the bulk of the revenue in the same while there were other new areas that we got an advange in. Now due to cut throat competition the prices have to be reduced to as much as a 1/7th of what it used to be. It was a good thing atleast that at some point, someone realized that the focus needs to be shifted.
So believe me, unless a company has an infinite source of funds, it cannot afford to keep investing in something that someone else already got a strategic advantage in even if they only have it theoritically.
spindoctor
Explorer
the difference being, i did not boldly claim that nvidia would drop their gpu business. you did. and then i'm supposed to prove why you're wrong, instead of you offering at least some hard facts backing up your claim?
so i point out some reasons why i think they won't drop it. reasons that are based in reality. their company is strong financially. that 3d accelerators are their primary business. and what do you say? "how do i know whether the gt300 will fail. how do i know whether ati has some ace in their sleeve?"
so your speculation that nvidia will shutdown their gpu business is based on speculation that the gt300 will fail or that the other companies will somehow drive nvidia out of the market. makes for riveting debate i must say.
we all know that nvidia is moving past just gpus. that does not mean they are dropping the gpu business at all. if you have any non-speculative reason or proof that they are going to do so, i'd love to hear it.
so i point out some reasons why i think they won't drop it. reasons that are based in reality. their company is strong financially. that 3d accelerators are their primary business. and what do you say? "how do i know whether the gt300 will fail. how do i know whether ati has some ace in their sleeve?"
so your speculation that nvidia will shutdown their gpu business is based on speculation that the gt300 will fail or that the other companies will somehow drive nvidia out of the market. makes for riveting debate i must say.
we all know that nvidia is moving past just gpus. that does not mean they are dropping the gpu business at all. if you have any non-speculative reason or proof that they are going to do so, i'd love to hear it.
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