The assault on software giant Microsoft , How Microsoft plans to beat its rivals

<CENTER><font size="3">The assault on software giant Microsoft</font></CENTER>

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It looks like a Star Trek gadget(image above)nudge the stubby black stick (no wires) and a virtual keyboard glitters in red on the kitchen worktop.

After a few taps, the shopping list is sent to an online grocer.

Next you could video-conference with a friend to swap recipes, or watch a cooking show stored on the hard drive of the media hub in the living room.

Upstairs, the mirror on the bedroom wall becomes a monitor, allowing you to watch a film, browse the web - or turn up the heating and open the blinds.

Welcome to Microsoft's wireless "M.home", on a leafy street in London's Ladbroke Grove.

"This is not the home of the future," says Cynthia Crossley, who is in charge of Microsoft's Windows operating system in the UK. "All the technology can be bought off-the-shelf and fits subtly into your home."

Driven by Microsoft's Media Center software, the showcase home lends credibility to the promise of Microsoft boss Bill Gates that in a few years' time his company will deliver a "user-centric" digital world.

Reality check
Alas, the M.home is a far cry from real life: where few computers link up to hi-fi and television, where complex software, hardware and competing media formats drive users to despair, and where setting up wireless home networks is a black art.

Security is another issue. Millions of computers running Microsoft's Windows operating system are under constant virus attack and riddled with spyware.

Microsoft, meanwhile, finds itself hassled by ever more competitors.

"Microsoft is in its most vulnerable moment in history, just like IBM in the 1990s," says George Colony, the chief executive of technology research firm Forrester.

Vulnerable? The company whose software powers more than 90% of all the world's personal computers?

Linux and friends
Microsoft may have a monopoly right now, says Mr Colony, but "protection of a monopoly is tricky".

And there are plenty of challengers ready to put Microsoft's durability to the test.

Foremost among them is the Linux operating system.

Rivalling Windows, this "open source" software project is developed by an online community of volunteers, but backed by big and small corporate players (like IBM and Red Hat) who provide support and tailor the software for individual business needs.

Linux, its champions say, is more stable and secure than anything Microsoft has ever produced.

It is cheap - even free if you are computer-savvy enough to install and maintain it - and much more customisable, because the code that makes it tick is neither a secret nor copyrighted by a single firm.

These days Linux is not just the software of choice for geeks; recently even the stolid bureaucrats of Bavaria's capital Munich decided to switch all their computers to Linux.

China, South Korea and Japan, meanwhile, have joined forces to develop an Asian flavour of Linux, to ensure they are not in thrall to Microsoft.

Other parts of the empire are under attack too, such as the hugely profitable "Office" suite.

Don't want to pay for a word processor, spreadsheet, database and presentation tool? Download OpenOffice. It won't look as nice as Office 2003, but it's free and fully featured.

Editing pictures? You don't have to pay for Microsoft's "image suite". The open source "Gimp" is powerful, while Google's free Picasa will meet the everyday needs of most consumers.

The browser war
Microsoft's biggest worry, though, should be the huge success of Mozilla Firefox, the open source web browser.

Faster and more secure than Internet Explorer, it is the first browser to seriously challenge Microsoft's dominance.

In just nine months Firefox has chalked up 50 million downloads, although some are admittedly upgrades.

Bill Gates is one of the people with Firefox on his computer, so I asked him for his opinion.

"I played around with it a bit, but it's just another browser, and IE [Microsoft's Internet Explorer] is better," Mr Gates told me, and challenged my assertion that Firefox's 'market share' is growing rapidly.

"So much software gets downloaded all the time, but do people actually use it?" he argued.

Apple takes a bite
In this fast-moving technology market, Microsoft's biggest problem may be its very size.

"Microsoft is not an innovator or transformer right now," says Forrester's George Colony. Many rivals are more focused and nimble.

Take a company like Skype with its software for free internet telephony, successfully invading the turf of Microsoft's MSN Messenger.

Or long-term rival Apple, whose iPod media player and iTunes music store have thrown Microsoft's music ambitions into disarray.

And even giants like mobile phone maker Nokia give Microsoft a run for its money, pushing their own mobile software into the pockets of millions of consumers.

Microsoft squeezed
"Companies are not afraid of competing with Microsoft anymore," says Marc Benioff, the boss of salesforce.com, which offers a service over the internet which competes with Microsoft in the lucrative market for "customer relationship management" software.

"Microsoft is a great business... but people don't want big software applications any more," he claims.

It also works for consumers. Why use Microsoft if you have a broadband connection and combine Firefox with powerful web services like Google's Gmail?

Here is Microsoft's problem: while rivals try to pick off its software offering one by one, new ways of writing software - for example open source - speed up the pace of innovation and threaten Microsoft's business model.

The fate of "Longhorn" is a case in point. The much-heralded successor to Windows XP is badly delayed and key components won't be ready for launch.

"We are working hard to get it on the market in 2006 and scale our ambitions to fit with that," Mr Gates admits.

Thus users will have to wait until 2007 for Longhorn's revolutionary filing system, designed to help find information buried in ever larger hard drives.

Once ready it will be deployed as part of a Longhorn service pack, says Alistair Baker, boss of Microsoft UK.

But Apple's brand-new "OS X Tiger" operating system offers this kind of functionality today.

Add Microsoft's ongoing trouble with regulators - the company is already talking to US authorities about Longhorn - and the picture of a rich but troubled company is complete.

Forrester boss George Colony predicts that there will be "a crisis at Microsoft, where they decide their model is broken".

But remember Netscape, which dominated the internet - only for Microsoft to catch up.

Bill Gates has a clear strategy. His company has very deep pockets.

And his fightback starts now.

<CENTER><font size="3">How Microsoft plans to beat its rivals</font></CENTER>

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Microsoft is under attack by a bevy of competitors. But is the software giant really at its <font color="#FF0000">"most vulnerable moment in history"</font>?

In the second part of our report we examine how Microsoft hopes to beat its rivals.

Microsoft has plenty of headaches.

A raft of companies is newly emboldened to challenge the software giant in every market: music, messaging, mobile phones and more.

"Open source" projects - developed by legions of volunteers - undermine the firm's business model.

To make things worse Microsoft's developers are struggling to close the security holes in their software.

And as long as consumers don't trust the Microsoft world, they are unlikely to buy into the digital lifestyle vision of company founder Bill Gates.

But despite what rivals may say, the software giant is not on the ropes just yet.

Microsoft has a multi-billion dollar pile of cash ready to invest, and Bill Gates has a strategy to fight his rivals.

First battle: Sort out security
"Security will always be on top of the [Microsoft] agenda," says Mr Gates, who is ready to admit that consumers are worried about security.

Already Microsoft is spending 30% to 35% of its research and development budget on security issues, he says.

His promise: Longhorn, the next version of the Windows operating system, will make malicious software (malware) that gets onto computers without the users' knowledge "a thing of the past".

Longhorn works, explains Microsoft UK boss Alistair Baker, because "security needs to be part of the design, not a bolt-on".

It took Microsoft a long time to discover this.

The design and defaults for Microsoft's older software seem to have been written for a kinder, gentler age - without hackers, internet connections or computer viruses.

Now Microsoft is racing against time to secure its users.

The more connected we get, the more people with old Microsoft software switch to always-on broadband connections. As they do, security risks rise.

But Longhorn and its security benefits are much delayed; it will ship at the end of 2006 at the earliest.

Microsoft also tries to play down expectations for take-up.

"We don't expect a rush to buy," says Mr Baker, not least because Longhorn is likely to run on high-spec computers only.

Critics suggest a simple solution: use Apple or Linux to be safe and sound.

But Linux (and Unix) systems have been hacked before, and Apple's brand-new Tiger operating system has already been fingered for a security flaw.

Yes, Microsoft's software has security holes, but hackers mainly love it because there are so many Windows PCs out there. Write one virus and 90% of the wired world could be yours.

So if Microsoft comes good on its promise to get Longhorn's security right, it lays the foundation of future success.

Second battle: Get into the living room
Think of Microsoft products: What do you see?

A moderately colourful computer screen, a word processor, maybe a weirdly shaped keyboard?

Whatever it is, it probably reminds you of work.

Now take a look at this sleek DVD player/recorder. It doubles up as a digital TV set-top box, comes with surround sound and has a 200 Gigabyte hard drive.

But have you spotted its tiny Microsoft Windows icon?

The hifi exterior hides a fully-fledged Windows XP personal computer running Microsoft's Media Center software.

Welcome to your personal video recorder, picture archive, juke box, internet access, music download service, wireless media streaming hub, control box for your home's lighting and heating ... oh, and personal computer as well.

Not content with dominating office life, Microsoft wants to enter our living rooms.

Paul Randle, Windows product marketing manager in the UK, admits it will be tricky: "How do we jump from the PC aisle to the consumer electronics aisle?".

It's a question of cost, admits Mr Baker, who says "the Media Center will move into the mainstream... in about three years".

More worryingly, in some countries the cable networks and satellite broadcasters like Sky control the software in set-top boxes.

And how many consumers will be confident enough to integrate their old audio and video equipment with Microsoft's hi-tech box?

Microsoft hopes that home users planning to replace their old PCs will opt for Media Centers instead.

And it bets that once the digital lifestyle reaches our mobile phones and MP3 players, consumers will clamour for an entertainment hub to pull all content together.

Third battle: Get them young
Thursday is a red letter day for fans of video games.

Microsoft launches the second generation of its Xbox console.

Mr Gates says the new Xbox will show that Microsoft "is hardcore about gaming".
Internet rumour suggests it will be called Xbox 360, is either white or silver and has an unusual concave shape.

More interesting, though, is what's inside.

I am not talking about its microprocessor or whether it delivers a better experience of playing Halo 2 or Perfect Dark Zero.

Switch on the new Xbox and according to Bill Gates you will see something very similar to the userfriendly 'this-is-not-really-a-computer' interface of the Windows Media Center.

So if the media center fails to sneak into your living room, Microsoft's Xbox is likely to succeed - and make a whole new generation comfortable with using Microsoft.

Fourth battle: Go mobile
"We've never been afraid to work on any platform out there," says Bill Gates.

In the market for handheld computers, though, it took Microsoft three attempts to challenge Palm.

With mobile phones Microsoft fared worse.

Most handset makers are pushing their own software, while upstart Blackberry is grabbing marketshare among business users that want a phone-cum-organiser.

Adding insult to injury, old rival Apple delivered a double-whammy with its iPod music player becoming industry leader in both the music download and MP3 player markets.

The endgame, however, is yet to come.

Mobile phone giant Nokia and Microsoft recently announced a "long-term collaboration" on mobile media software.

Phones with massive storage, like Nokia's brand new N91, could prove to be iPod killers.

And on Tuesday Microsoft released Windows Mobile 5.0, which brings together its Smartphone and PocketPC software and supports iPod style devices with massive hard drives.

"In the portable space... the phone sort of trumps everything. It trumps media players, it trumps cameras, it trumps GPS-mapping devices, digital wallets, and even entertainment. And obviously we're in the phone software space," Bill Gates told gizmo website Engadget.com.

Microsoft's assault on the mobile space has just begun.

Fifth battle: Serious software
But what about Windows and Office, Microsoft's real cash cows?

Aren't they challenged by Linux, OpenOffice, a revitalised Apple and many others?

Time for a reality check.

More copies of Windows will be sold this year than there are Apple Macs in the whole wide world.

Apple's iMac computer was revolutionary, but no Windows killer; its new Mac Mini won't achieve that feat either.

OpenOffice may be efficient, but how many IT managers will be bold enough to go to their bosses and propose dumping the office software used by most major corporations.

Tidying up at the edges, Microsoft is tackling firms like Skype by integrating Voice-over-Internet telephony into its Messenger software.

Which leaves Linux, the great hope of Windows critics worldwide.

Yes, Linux is powering more and more corporate servers, but so is Microsoft's server software.

And it takes a fairly computer-literate user to install and maintain the open source operating system on a personal computer.

"It may take another 10 years until Linux becomes a consumer product," admits Stuart Cohen, the chief executive of Open Source Development Labs, an industry group that helps businesses go Linux.

And there is the weight of numbers: the majority of developers writes software for the Microsoft world, because most PCs run Windows.

Microsoft is not yet in the clear, though.

Government officials in China, Japan, South Korea and Brazil are actively pushing for Linux solutions.

If they get serious, the balance of power could shift quickly.

Sixth battle: Open source
Microsoft executives, meanwhile, are trying their best to diss open source software, with its volunteer developers and 'general public license' copyright.

Such software, Bill Gates tells customers, might not be "interoperable" and could be more expensive to run than Windows "if you look at the entire software stack".

And "do you really want to have your security issues discussed by the Linux developer community on a public bulletin board," queries Alistair Baker of Microsoft UK.

With the likes of IBM backing Linux, such assertions may be questionable.

But that's not an issue, as long as Microsoft manages to sow enough doubt.

So what about Firefox, the hugely successful open source browser that has grabbed a 6% market share in less than nine months (disclosure: the author's default browser is Firefox).

Startled by its success, Microsoft brought forward the launch of Internet Explorer 7.0 to this summer.

Watch out for Firefox hallmarks like tabbed browsing, better security, integrated RSS feeds.

The final push: Convergence
It is competition - from Apple to Linux - that has forced Microsoft to raise its game and sharpen its vision of the future.

As Bill Gates tells it, we are set for a wonderful life where software is user-centric and your digital world accompanies you wherever you go - in the office, at home and on the road.

Mr Gates calls it "convergence", and says: "We need someone who creates an architecture, need someone who puts that into a framework."

Soon, he implies, soon Microsoft could be everywhere.

Source

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