The Trumps & Elon tweets thread (Had to make this since it's never ending)

blr_p said:
Another for the zero tariffs club from Vietnam all the way down from 90% :wideyed:
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This does nothing for the US. The tariffs were meant to address trade deficits and bring back industries to the US. That's why they were not based on reciprocal tariffs. If Vietnam brings tariffs down to 0% what will US start selling to Vietnam? Hardly a few niche products and those will not move the needle much. I doubt US will bring tariffs down after this negotiation.
 
U.S. goods imports from Vietnam totaled $136.6 billion in 2024.
vs
U.S. goods imports from India totaled $87.4 billion in 2024.

Vietnam is alleged to work as a proxy of China...
 
roadrash99 said:
Yeah it's in this one (link with timestamp) -
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I appreciate this Belgian guy trying to make sense of it all but its too fluid with all sorts of second order & further effects playing out

18:29 I've not seen many people attempt to properly explain what will happen next. I think what I have seen is that people are saying the most exposed markets are emerging market economies who have built their whole economic growth model on exporting to the US like Vietnam and other Asian countries.
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Can you say CHYNA?

So it would make sense then for the Vietnamese leader to work out some kind of deal.
But it's just so unprecedented that we we cannot really look back in time and determine what will happen next exactly because there's just so much at work now.
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Exactly. But a lot of commentary is doing just that. eg. Trade wars lead to real wars (!)

Makes you wonder whether what you thought this week still holds a week later. Whether the goal posts have shifted as the US tweaks their policy.

The other point he's made again is about trust. Trump made the deal with Mexico & Canada and then claimed it was unfair in his second term. Guess what these two don't have a choice. They have to bend the knee.


This is how a contact of mine in the US described it

it is not easy determining the real best solution. This is trial and error. Start with Tarriffs, If that does not work, try something else. Now that the big Universities cannot use DEI any longer, better studies are sure to start coming out soon.
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Watch this space

roadrash99 said:
My conclusion is that this represents the death throes of US as a superpower. It will mostly be in vain and in lead to a multipolar world.
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Your conclusion? If you watched his earlier video that you linked he mentioned the US rewriting the rules of the game. He's right on that and its a good way of framing it. Bretton Woods is over. Not the US as a superpower.

How does a failing power rewrite rules? Either the US is falling or its not and I don't see any evidence that it is. Instead the US is reconfiguring itself to prevent just that outcome. Or as someone put it. The US can't carry the whole world any more. That's not death throes. That's a country trying to fix itself so it has a better future.
 
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blr_p said:
Bretton Woods is over. Not the US as a superpower.
How does a failing power rewrite rules? Either the US is falling or its not and I don't see any evidence that it is. Instead the US is reconfiguring itself to prevent just that outcome. Or as someone put it. The US can't carry the whole world any more. That's not death throes. That's a country trying to fix itself so it has a better future.
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If it's successful, you will be able to say that. I would bet against it.
 
Yes I think US is trying to fix itself. Trying to come out of the grasp of the deep state or cabal that's controlling everything as we speak. Trump is trying to bring US from that grasp. This cabal is spread across all continents and somewhere I read in YouTube call them the Bilderberg group. Or Adani and ambanis are mere pawns with regard these guys.
 
bssunilreddy said:
Yes I think US is trying to fix itself. Trying to come out of the grasp of the deep state or cabal that's controlling everything as we speak. Trump is trying to bring US from that grasp. This cabal is spread across all continents and somewhere I read in YouTube call them the Bilderberg group. Or Adani and ambanis are mere pawns with regard these guys.
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US deep state - Wants US to be #1 globally and in every aspect even at the expense of lives and prosperity of some Americans.
Trump and co - Wants US to be a white nationalist, relatively prosperous country and is not as concerned with being #1 or dominating the globe.
 
roadrash99 said:
US able to maintain its global dominance and also achieving reindustrialisation, job growth, while maintaining dollar as global reserve currency.
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I don't see a problem with that. Global dominance assuming military, isn't under threat. Nobody walks away from that spot unless challenged and there are no contenders.

Job growth in fits and starts. He can already claim that from his first term. He will build on that this term.

Reserve currency is also doable.

Degree of reindustrialisation will be debatable.

How permanent will the changes be? Changing the world order and its rules means a different administration doesn't or cannot roll it back. Here things are a bit fuzzy.

I'm still looking for milestones or real markers here. All we have is direction and intent for now.
 
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blr_p said:
I'm still looking for milestones or real markers here. All we have is direction and intent for now.
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Direction is clear, US will dominate the Western Hemisphere only. It will obviously not retreat immediately from other places, but it will stand down if such a situation were to arise (say China attacking Taiwan).
Reason why you can't have all the things I listed together is because they are (at least currently) contradictory. The strength of the dollar is a big reason for US dominance, but it also means giving jobs to US citizens is really expensive. You can't have both at the same time.
 
roadrash99 said:
US able to maintain its global dominance and also achieving reindustrialisation, job growth, while maintaining dollar as global reserve currency.
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Whole issue is about how they are going to manage debt and interest on debt which is humongous:
www.crfb.org

Interest on the Debt to Grow Past $1 Trillion Next Year | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

2025-02-06-The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) latest budget and economic outlook includes a troubling projection for net inte
www.crfb.org www.crfb.org

In reality, dtrump is playing a cunning game by de-valuating US$ there by reducing the amount they have to repay.
 
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roadrash99 said:
Direction is clear, US will dominate the Western Hemisphere only. It will obviously not retreat immediately from other places, but it will stand down if such a situation were to arise (say China attacking Taiwan).
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Strategic ambiguity makes it tricky to say what the US would do in such a situation. Past Taiwan straits incidents in the 50s & 90s resulted in aircraft carriers sent in defense.

Standing down is not an option because should Taiwan be taken it then acts as a springboard for China to further challenge US presence in the region. Now China has an opening into the Pacific which didn't exist earlier.

What people forget is taking Taiwan isn't enough. For Taiwan to then be defendable by China requires occuping parts of Japan's southern islands as well as some of the northern islands of the Philippines.

Japan won't sit by idly in such circumstances. Japan becomes vulnerable if Taiwan is taken. So Japan would draw the US in via treaty obligations. This puts all other US treaty obligations under the scanner.

Not ignoring the fact that China has to be prepared to lose at least a 100k soldiers in the process without the US doing anything but sending supplies and arms to Taiwan.

Taiwan looks safe to me. It's people prepare for Typhoon drills but have never trained for a takeover by the mainland. It's as if they don't think it will ever happen.

roadrash99 said:
Reason why you can't have all the things I listed together is because they are (at least currently) contradictory. The strength of the dollar is a big reason for US dominance, but it also means giving jobs to US citizens is really expensive. You can't have both at the same time.
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There is talk of a weakened dollar which will help exports. That won't make a difference to US dominance around the globe or affect the standing of the $ as a reserve currency. See the 80s, dollar was weak during that decade.

I don't understand how creating jobs has anything to do with the strength of the dollar?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1908498779487039909

$5 tr FDI should create plenty of jobs

Notice how no one talks about 'net' like you do @Kloud
 
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blr_p said:
Wish this clip was longer
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Hilarious, it lost all credibility when he quoted Warren Buffett, I mean the guy who's sitting on a 300 billion cash pile will obviously be glad he gets to buy everything at a discount lol.

www.businessinsider.com

Warren Buffett's been waiting years for a crash like this — but he might not be buying just yet

Berkshire Hathaway has a $321 billion cash pile, but close followers of Warren Buffett's company say it might hold off on buying into the market rout.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
 
psyph3r said:
Hilarious, it lost all credibility when he quoted Warren Buffett, I mean the guy who's sitting on a 300 billion cash pile will obviously be glad he gets to buy everything at a discount lol.
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Don't be selective listen to the whole thing..

Crash the stock market by 20% means..

Pushes cash into treasuries
Forces fed to slash interest rates
Lower rates = fed refinances trillions of debt for cheap
Dollar gets weakened and mortgage rates fall

^THAT

Will happen or not?

Tariffs
.. forces companies to make in the US to dodge them
.. forces farmers to sell domestic which lowers food inflation

Taking from the rich because stocks are selling at a discount in exchange for lower prices for the middle class

Yeah...

PS
Weak dollar & lower fed interest rate = good for Inr to $ conversion because it attracts $ to emerging markets where they earn more than sitting in the US :cool:
 
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blr_p said:
Don't be selective listen to the whole thing..
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I'm sorry but you just regurgitate what you see from your echo chambers without applying common sense, you're quoting from an account that's called AmericanPapaBear for example.
You seem to be too heavily invested in this topic for some reason and most of your comments come across as if you have a seat inside the White House or as if Donald Trump himself calls you up every night to keep you posted on what his secretive plans are.
Fact is you're sitting in a third world country and talking about a country's politics with extreme conviction like some know-it-all, that's the equivalent of someone sitting in Lesotho and giving expert advice on a tech forum about Bihar politics, in both cases the person will be way off ground reality.

I quite honestly don't have the time nor patience to argue on the internet, instead of posting someone else's opinions it's better to look at things as they're evidently happening in the now, which would also be a constructive use of your time since I see you post walls of text going off on a tangent in the middle of the night about hypothetical scenarios that won't ever affect you personally.

If you think some billionaire with billionaire friends is working tirelessly towards helping the common man I have a bridge to sell you.
He's probably playing golf in Florida at this very moment

 
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