The Trumps & Elon tweets thread (Had to make this since it's never ending)

[roadrash99]

Another for the zero tariffs club from Vietnam all the way down from 90%

This does nothing for the US. The tariffs were meant to address trade deficits and bring back industries to the US. That's why they were not based on reciprocal tariffs. If Vietnam brings tariffs down to 0% what will US start selling to Vietnam? Hardly a few niche products and those will not move the needle much. I doubt US will bring tariffs down after this negotiation.

 

[TEUser2K1]

U.S. goods imports from Vietnam totaled $136.6 billion in 2024.
vs
U.S. goods imports from India totaled $87.4 billion in 2024.

Vietnam is alleged to work as a proxy of China...

 

[Kloud]

Export orders on hold, US buyers seek 15-20% discount - The Times of India

India Business News: US buyers are demanding 15-20% discounts from Indian exporters due to increased tariffs. Large retailers remain steady, while smaller exporters face o

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

 

[blr_p]

Yeah it's in this one (link with timestamp) -

I appreciate this Belgian guy trying to make sense of it all but its too fluid with all sorts of second order & further effects playing out

18:29 I've not seen many people attempt to properly explain what will happen next. I think what I have seen is that people are saying the most exposed markets are emerging market economies who have built their whole economic growth model on exporting to the US like Vietnam and other Asian countries.

Can you say CHYNA?

So it would make sense then for the Vietnamese leader to work out some kind of deal.

But it's just so unprecedented that we we cannot really look back in time and determine what will happen next exactly because there's just so much at work now.

Exactly. But a lot of commentary is doing just that. eg. Trade wars lead to real wars (!)

Makes you wonder whether what you thought this week still holds a week later. Whether the goal posts have shifted as the US tweaks their policy.

The other point he's made again is about trust. Trump made the deal with Mexico & Canada and then claimed it was unfair in his second term. Guess what these two don't have a choice. They have to bend the knee.


This is how a contact of mine in the US described it

it is not easy determining the real best solution. This is trial and error. Start with Tarriffs, If that does not work, try something else. Now that the big Universities cannot use DEI any longer, better studies are sure to start coming out soon.

Watch this space

My conclusion is that this represents the death throes of US as a superpower. It will mostly be in vain and in lead to a multipolar world.

Your conclusion? If you watched his earlier video that you linked he mentioned the US rewriting the rules of the game. He's right on that and its a good way of framing it. Bretton Woods is over. Not the US as a superpower.

How does a failing power rewrite rules? Either the US is falling or its not and I don't see any evidence that it is. Instead the US is reconfiguring itself to prevent just that outcome. Or as someone put it. The US can't carry the whole world any more. That's not death throes. That's a country trying to fix itself so it has a better future.

 

[roadrash99]

Bretton Woods is over. Not the US as a superpower.
How does a failing power rewrite rules? Either the US is falling or its not and I don't see any evidence that it is. Instead the US is reconfiguring itself to prevent just that outcome. Or as someone put it. The US can't carry the whole world any more. That's not death throes. That's a country trying to fix itself so it has a better future.

If it's successful, you will be able to say that. I would bet against it.

 

[bssunilreddy]

Yes I think US is trying to fix itself. Trying to come out of the grasp of the deep state or cabal that's controlling everything as we speak. Trump is trying to bring US from that grasp. This cabal is spread across all continents and somewhere I read in YouTube call them the Bilderberg group. Or Adani and ambanis are mere pawns with regard these guys.

 

[Kloud]

Did Donald Trump use ChatGPT to create Liberation Day tariffs plan? Here's what reports state as many say AI is running the country

Social media users claim that Donald Trump's administration relied on ChatGPT to calculate 'Liberation Day' tariffs based on an overly simplistic formula.

m.economictimes.com

 

[bssunilreddy]

https://m.economictimes.com/news/in...ing-the-country/articleshow/119986834.cms[/UR

Even Trump have put tariffs on Arctic Islands where only penguins live no humans there. It's definitely AI. Must be because it's how foolish they have imposed on those islands.

 

[roadrash99]

Yes I think US is trying to fix itself. Trying to come out of the grasp of the deep state or cabal that's controlling everything as we speak. Trump is trying to bring US from that grasp. This cabal is spread across all continents and somewhere I read in YouTube call them the Bilderberg group. Or Adani and ambanis are mere pawns with regard these guys.

US deep state - Wants US to be #1 globally and in every aspect even at the expense of lives and prosperity of some Americans.
Trump and co - Wants US to be a white nationalist, relatively prosperous country and is not as concerned with being #1 or dominating the globe.

 

[blr_p]

If it's successful, you will be able to say that. I would bet against it.

How do you define successful here?

 

[roadrash99]

How do you define successful here?

US able to maintain its global dominance and also achieving reindustrialisation, job growth, while maintaining dollar as global reserve currency.

 

[blr_p]

US able to maintain its global dominance and also achieving reindustrialisation, job growth, while maintaining dollar as global reserve currency.

I don't see a problem with that. Global dominance assuming military, isn't under threat. Nobody walks away from that spot unless challenged and there are no contenders.

Job growth in fits and starts. He can already claim that from his first term. He will build on that this term.

Reserve currency is also doable.

Degree of reindustrialisation will be debatable.

How permanent will the changes be? Changing the world order and its rules means a different administration doesn't or cannot roll it back. Here things are a bit fuzzy.

I'm still looking for milestones or real markers here. All we have is direction and intent for now.

 

[roadrash99]

I'm still looking for milestones or real markers here. All we have is direction and intent for now.

Direction is clear, US will dominate the Western Hemisphere only. It will obviously not retreat immediately from other places, but it will stand down if such a situation were to arise (say China attacking Taiwan).
Reason why you can't have all the things I listed together is because they are (at least currently) contradictory. The strength of the dollar is a big reason for US dominance, but it also means giving jobs to US citizens is really expensive. You can't have both at the same time.

 

[TEUser2K1]

US able to maintain its global dominance and also achieving reindustrialisation, job growth, while maintaining dollar as global reserve currency.

Whole issue is about how they are going to manage debt and interest on debt which is humongous:

Interest on the Debt to Grow Past $1 Trillion Next Year | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

2025-02-06-The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) latest budget and economic outlook includes a troubling projection for net inte

www.crfb.org

In reality, dtrump is playing a cunning game by de-valuating US$ there by reducing the amount they have to repay.

 

[blr_p]

Direction is clear, US will dominate the Western Hemisphere only. It will obviously not retreat immediately from other places, but it will stand down if such a situation were to arise (say China attacking Taiwan).

Strategic ambiguity makes it tricky to say what the US would do in such a situation. Past Taiwan straits incidents in the 50s & 90s resulted in aircraft carriers sent in defense.

Standing down is not an option because should Taiwan be taken it then acts as a springboard for China to further challenge US presence in the region. Now China has an opening into the Pacific which didn't exist earlier.

What people forget is taking Taiwan isn't enough. For Taiwan to then be defendable by China requires occuping parts of Japan's southern islands as well as some of the northern islands of the Philippines.

Japan won't sit by idly in such circumstances. Japan becomes vulnerable if Taiwan is taken. So Japan would draw the US in via treaty obligations. This puts all other US treaty obligations under the scanner.

Not ignoring the fact that China has to be prepared to lose at least a 100k soldiers in the process without the US doing anything but sending supplies and arms to Taiwan.

Taiwan looks safe to me. It's people prepare for Typhoon drills but have never trained for a takeover by the mainland. It's as if they don't think it will ever happen.

Reason why you can't have all the things I listed together is because they are (at least currently) contradictory. The strength of the dollar is a big reason for US dominance, but it also means giving jobs to US citizens is really expensive. You can't have both at the same time.

There is talk of a weakened dollar which will help exports. That won't make a difference to US dominance around the globe or affect the standing of the $ as a reserve currency. See the 80s, dollar was weak during that decade.

I don't understand how creating jobs has anything to do with the strength of the dollar?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1908498779487039909

$5 tr FDI should create plenty of jobs

Notice how no one talks about 'net' like you do @Kloud