Two questions for you,
- What's your perspective on the India's future?
- How are you personally preparing for that?
My take,
It's been a year since we got properly introduced to AI. But, my take hasn't changed.Companies around the world have been outsourcing white collar jobs to India because it's cheap. Now, AI will do many of these jobs for even cheaper. I don't see why AI won't cause massive lay off in India and recession. Prepare yourself.
Coming back to my point, going forward, IT companies won't need that much human resources. AI will be capable of replacing half of the people in this industry. Coders will be first to go because these guys have put mammoth amount of material on the internet for AI to train. There are more coding resources than bio, mechanical, law, civil etc resources combined. Those who are underestimating AI are looking at the past AI history and are clearly oblivious to the current inertia of this field.
Things that happened in one year. (This is what I have seen)
- AI can code better than most of the top-level tier 10x coders.
- AI can create better art than humans.
- AI can create better music than humans.
- AI can sound more human and compassionate than most humans.
What advantage does India have in this situation?
I don't see any. The future resembles a royal rumble match with only the US and China inside the ring.Indians are still struggling with the necessities. Doing H vs. M and crapping on villains from our history has become a favorite paste time for Indians. These days, when I talk to people, more and more of them sound like good ol' grandpa. No offense to sweet grandpas of TE, but these other younger ones are living in the history.
White-Collar jobs
In my view, the US covers India's expenses. This was effective because Indian workers provided affordable IT and BPO services. However, AI can now perform these tasks at an even lower cost. So, why would Western nations continue to outsource jobs to India? Even if they do, why not choose countries like Vietnam, which offer superior infrastructure and a more educated workforce that are ready to work for cheaper rates than Indians?Blue-Collar jobs
Talking about manufacturing. I have said my piece about it elsewhere. Robotics subject isn't as glam as AI for Ujjala-washed-collars. The Robotics race is running only a slightly behind the AI. The China is clearly winning this one. You may have seen impressive robot demonstrations from Boston Dynamics. In China, hundreds of startups have already surpassed those robots within a year. To compare, this is how Indian robotics looks like.Putting jokes on hold, I firmly believe that with its vast and cost-effective robots, China will continue to be the ultimate manufacturing powerhouse. No human, regardless of where they’re from, can compete with the price of those robots.
TLDR
With HNIs, talent, FIIs and now, we'll also see the jobs fleeing the country. India, similar to other countries in the global market, relies heavily on exports. This is especially true because it operates as a net negative economy. Such an economy can't last long without foreign investment, leaving domestic investors to manage the country's finances. It's a bit like trying to pay off loans by taking more loans. Also, the increased taxes and the government's 'fake it till you make it' approach seems to be failing.Many Indians tend to overlook the obvious statistics, which leaves me with no hopes.