What's your perspective on the India's future?

[roadrash99]

People are becoming lazy by all freebies.

You can also look at it like this - If government gives you free 10kg rice will you care? No because it's not a big deal for you. However all these people who are receiving free grains, for them it is a big deal. You can't sell your free rice and get rich, you can only eat it. I see nothing wrong with supporting people like this. People will not get lazy, people save the money they would have spent on rice and use it to improve their situation, because it's human nature to always want more and more up the ladder. I see free water, electricity in the same way (as long as there is a limit). It's a good way to give financial help without much possibility of abuse. It's one of the least problematic social welfare implementations.

 

[prd_407]

India is on track to grow old before it even becomes middle income country. (read population split like South Korea with income split like Namibia)

Poor people are incentivised to remain poor and make multiple babies.
Knowledge workers are clueless of larger picture and content to spend all income on basics home, school, hospital, vehicle.
Rich people are coerced into supporting govt's madness.

 

[rocking]

You can also look at it like this - If government gives you free 10kg rice will you care? No because it's not a big deal for you. However all these people who are receiving free grains, for them it is a big deal. You can't sell your free rice and get rich, you can only eat it. I see nothing wrong with supporting people like this. People will not get lazy, people save the money they would have spent on rice and use it to improve their situation, because it's human nature to always want more and more up the ladder. I see free water, electricity in the same way (as long as there is a limit). It's a good way to give financial help without much possibility of abuse. It's one of the least problematic social welfare implementations.

bro people own cars, scooty, bikes are getting all these freebies. freebies should be for older people only.

 

[blr_p]

Was thinking if this question was asked in the 80s, almost all of the answers would have been wrong.

Is there any comparison pre and post liberalisation?

Why do you then foreclose any such developments in the future

Oh and my vote is for bright future ahead. Given the unstoppable growth we will enjoy for the next few decades given our demographics.

Shortly after independence the naysayers were questioning whether this country could even survive as a coherent unit into the future. They thought it would break up into smaller units and be done for.

It seems obvious these days but back then people had their doubts. Most of these commentators were foreign though.

There have been tremendous achievements since independence. We've had a linear growth path. Could have been faster if people with the right ideas were allowed. But we got there eventually.

This country has confounded its naysayers since long and will continue to do so.

 

[bssunilreddy]

You can also look at it like this - If government gives you free 10kg rice will you care? No because it's not a big deal for you. However all these people who are receiving free grains, for them it is a big deal. You can't sell your free rice and get rich, you can only eat it. I see nothing wrong with supporting people like this. People will not get lazy, people save the money they would have spent on rice and use it to improve their situation, because it's human nature to always want more and more up the ladder. I see free water, electricity in the same way (as long as there is a limit). It's a good way to give financial help without much possibility of abuse. It's one of the least problematic social welfare implementations.

Yes to a certain limit only.
In AP since 2004, free electricity until 200 units, free medical facility until 10 lacs in any hospital corporate or otherwise, fees reimbursement for college students, 15k for mother's, 8k for every girl child, 4k for elderly, 10kgs rice for white ration holders, 4k for widowers, free imbursement for farmers who has agricultural land less than 5 acres. All the above are being provided by Rajashekar Reddy then CM in 2004. From then on all successive govts were giving these.
Now in addition to above in 24 elections campaign,
Free bus for all women, 50k govt jobs via new GOs for the next 5 years. These 2 are extra given by Chandrababu Naidu. Until now only 3 are being implemented because he is saying that before govt left debt of 6 lacs crore and he is asking the help of Modi to give special package to AP for future development.
Chandrababu naidu is responsible for Hitech City and growth of software industry in Hyderabad.
Now he & his son are doing the same with AP focussing heavily on Vizag city to turn it into a IT hub.

 

[lockhrt999]

1st of all EC should bring new rules like

I'm sorry, but I lost you at EC.
--
Regardless, can we stop imagining fairytales scenarios?

• Cast system isn't going away.
• The reservation system isn't going away
• Freebies aren't going away.

All of them are as solid line on the stone as corruption. Wait, why nobody say corruption is going away? Because we are not kids anymore.

Stop the OT with fairytales.

My questions to you are,

1. What's your perspective on the India's future?
2. How are you personally preparing for that?

Edit: if you think it's all doom and gloom ahead. You choose to tell the others what you are doing about it?
Me personally? I'm not doing much. But I think I should.

Oh and my vote is for bright future ahead. Given the unstoppable growth we will enjoy for the next few decades given our demographics.

You have to explain a bit more about this, mate.

India is on track to grow old before it even becomes middle income country.

Are you talking about the middle income trap? I have to agree with you.

 

[murdock]

You can't sell your free rice and get rich, you can only eat it

The Ration shop dealers are selling Free govt Rice and Empty Rice Bags at Black Market and earning atleast 35-50k per month.
The common people themselves can sell the Free Rice to ration shop dealers at 12 Rupees per Kg.

 

[blr_p]

You have to explain a bit more about this, mate.

Isn't constant growth a good indicator of future prospects?

In the last decade the country has been attracting in excess of $50bn and more annually. This does not make the news but its there. So long as this country continues to offer better returns than elsewhere the FDI will continue. Future projected growth will guarantee it.

Also some points in your opener are incorrect. Take for example what you said about exports. Important no doubt but not as important as it is for export dependent countries like say China.

India has an internal economy meaning 70% of its wealth is internally generated and this has been the case for over half a century now.

But for China this figure is less than half. Without exports the Chinese economy contracts 70% whereas for India it is only 30%. So India is the more resilient of the two

 

[roadrash99]

bro people own cars, scooty, bikes are getting all these freebies. freebies should be for older people only.

Some misuse will be there of course you have to look at the big picture.

The Ration shop dealers are selling Free govt Rice and Empty Rice Bags at Black Market and earning atleast 35-50k per month.
The common people themselves can sell the Free Rice to ration shop dealers at 12 Rupees per Kg.

If you need to consume 10kg rice anyway, which is not unrealistic, why would you sell it. The amount you earn is nowhere near the market value of the grain. No one actually sells their rice to earn 120 Rs. As for the ration shop dealers, you can't blame people for that, it's a government failure. We were talking about people "getting lazy' because they got free rice.

 

[rocking]

Some misuse will be there of course you have to look at the big picture.

it is total misuse. i rarely see anyone can't even work and afford to eat except poor and ill people. no one should be given free things. there is nothing free in this world. it is the money of taxpayers that is forcefully taken from their pockets.

one can give birth to 4-10 children and then ask for freebies, that is not anyone with mind would accept.

 

[sanz1112]

AI will disrupt India's outsourcing-driven economy by automating many white-collar jobs, leading to job displacement and a need for upskilling.

However, we can't be so sure about the future as AI lowers the barrier to entry for tech startups. India has a booming startup ecosystem, and AI can help small businesses scale rapidly.
Sectors like healthcare, agriculture, and education stand to benefit.
Some startups using the same AI could make into Fortune 500 etc.
Hence I do believe we'll have challenges for sure, but we will slowly overcome it. Growth will be slow for a decade or so but then it will again pick up.

 

[roadrash99]

it is total misuse. i rarely see anyone can't even work and afford to eat except poor and ill people. no one should be given free things. there is nothing free in this world. it is the money of taxpayers that is forcefully taken from their pockets.

Then you need to see more, I just returned from my father's village, there are still people living in the 20th century there.

And it's not supposed to be for people who literally "can't afford to eat", that would cause malnutrition and starvation and it's a good thing we don't have that anymore. But if your standards are that anyone barely surviving should stop receiving benefits then I have to say you are looking at it from a ideological lens rather than a practical one.
It is true there is nothing free in the world, but it is also true there is nothing truly "yours" either. If you earn good money it is always a function of your place in society. Humans are a social animals and no one can earn money if they are completely isolated. Government spending should always be directed to improve overall well being of society, not just those that are already doing good. If you let free market handle everything there is literally no need for government.

 

[bssunilreddy]

AI is for startups for now in India or elsewhere.
AI is not the only thing that will drive any nation because it wasn't there before.
Like service sector, health sector, education sector, agriculture sector cannot be driven by AI for now as it might take decades to reach full robotic or AI automation.
So India still have the chance to recover just like what above member said.
AI will only disrupt software driven industry and software is not the only industry that is paying us.
China has a edge of about 30-40 years but if we or our govts devise a plan to overcome that edge we can easily move past them.
What we need is innovation. New thinking and strategies laid down by govt bodies and universities so that those who are going to join will think and utilise those opportunities.
As an example our maids son achieved 65% in 12th and he is saying that he won't opt for Bsc Computers or BCA but want to do Bsc Chemistry or Physics.

Since last 5 years DAE is recruiting heavily by posting 5k jobs every year. Likewise take Isro also and Drdo.

India is only country whose 70% population is under 35 years while chinese population is now having more older people than young.

Chinese population has been decreasing drastically for the past 5 years from 1.5 billion to now 1.25 billion while Indian population is increasing at a drastic rate.

Even we will reach what China has reached 5 years ago and that is from 2050 onwards.
From 2050 we also will be decreasing. That means we have another 25 years which will produce more young generation who will spearhead the country.

When our deficit starts in China mostly old people exists as compared to us.

 

[lockhrt999]

Isn't constant growth a good indicator of future prospects?

It's slowing down, though. It's not even remotely enough to catch up with any developed nation.

In the last decade the country has been attracting in excess of $50bn and more annually. This does not make the news but its there. So long as this country continues to offer better returns than elsewhere the FDI will continue. Future projected growth will guarantee it.

The FDI increase was mostly due to silly after-COVID policies China employed. That heavy inflow of FDI wasn't because India suddenly became the hotspot. It was because China didn't want that money.

Anyway, as you may be aware, China walked back on those silly policies to promote its industries recently.

Result? the net FDI (inflows minus outflows) declined to just $1.18 billion during April-December 2024 from $7.84 billion in the same period in 2023.

The world is watching those numbers, and they don't like the Indian economic outlook. It's why China's share market is up by like 30-40% and India is still falling. The fall in the Indian market has not much to do with Trump or Nasdaq. It was falling before his antiques.

Also some points in your opener are incorrect. Take for example what you said about exports. Important no doubt but not as important as it is for export dependent countries like say China.

India has an internal economy meaning 70% of its wealth is internally generated and this has been the case for over half a century now.

But for China this figure is less than half. Without exports the Chinese economy contracts 70% whereas for India it is only 30%. So India is the more resilient of the two

I don't agree. We are export dependant. More so than China.

India is imports dependant. We can't grow petrol, technology, or dollars here. We simply won't function without our imports. Agree on this point?

Say, your monthly expense is 2L. But, the salary is only 1L. Can you say you aren't concerned about the salary?

China is a net positive economy. Just because an economy is a net positive doesn't mean it must rely on the exports, or it'll flop. China is resourceful, which India can't claim. China has resources for almost everything. If the world collapses tomorrow, it can survive rather thrive on its own just fine.

China is thriving with its exports, no doubt. But India is collapsing in slow motion under its import heavy trade portfolio.

We can only claim India isn't reliant on exports if we stop talking about the newest phones, laptops, cars, and fuel, and go back to using bullock carts. Today, our salary (exports) doesn't cover our expenses (imports).

However, we can't be so sure about the future as AI lowers the barrier to entry for tech startups. India has a booming startup ecosystem, and AI can help small businesses scale rapidly.

AI is for startups for now in India or elsewhere.

Then
1. why do Indians choose to open their AI startups outside India?
2. Why the whatever AI startups India has got are nothing short of scams (eg krutrim)?

Some startups using the same AI could make into Fortune 500 etc.

Sure. I have 0 doubts. But can it happen in India?

India is only country whose 70% population is under 35 years while chinese population is now having more older people than young.

Chinese population has been decreasing drastically for the past 5 years from 1.5 billion to now 1.25 billion while Indian population is increasing at a drastic rate.

In my opinion, like I said in the OP, In a few years, it won't matter who's got a younger population, and what's the birth rate. Machines will take over the blue-collar jobs.