India is not a investment friendly market and Modi is not doing anything to rectify that situation.
His administration is trying, the objection is the arrogant manner in which it is being done. First the opposition makes a noise because that is their job but there are also state govts that are crucial as in the end the buck stops with them. With the last administration you had a lot of small people with big shoes throwing wrenches in the system as a display of their power. It is less now but still a factor. CM's of Gujarat & Maha were in Shanghai to interact with their counterparts.
Where the hell was my CM ? he had more important things to do (!)
Especially, the tax system. Rules are changed at whims and fancy and then applied retrospectively to companies to extract more taxes from them when ever they please.
Jaitley & Modi have been at pains to reassure people abroad that they won't pull any of these stunts. But doubts are still there. They say they won't charge anything going forward but are happy to collect from the past. I read the other day that there was this lobby group in Hong Kong that filed a case in the supreme court challenging the govt over this point. This is the first time such a case has been filed by a foreign party and the results will be telling.
Then there is the politics, labor issues and other things which are all factors that affect investments. This kind of environment is bad in the long run. Sure Modi is getting pledges of investments or closing some deals here and there, but as they say, a fool and his money are soon parted and once these investors taste that, they won't invest more. The only exception may be for some specific markets where returns are guaranteed no matter who you end up doing.
Rajasthan & MP are experimenting with labour reforms. The idea is if it works there it increases pressure on other states to enact investor friendly legislation. States are free to go as fast or not as they please. centre can't shove things down anybody's throat. But when elections come around people will want to know what the progress has been and will give their verdict.
After looking at what happened to Nokia and Foxconn, would any one want to setup a mobile phone factory in India.
God knows how many IT/Telecom and Manufacturing investments India has lost to china or for that matter even European countries.
If things work out then you will see a reversal.
I have heard that the Chinese even actively list the negatives about India in presentations to discourage potential investors from coming to India and instead invest in China. The fact that investors thought that putting manufacturing plants in costlier western markets is better putting them in than India says a lot about our market.
The optics & atmospherics of the China trip were very good. When it comes to China set aside the border issue for now, that requires more political trust to develop before attempts to resolve it can work. Instead think of one number.
4.3 trillion
that the amount the chinese have in us treasury bonds earning low interest. If you owe the bank $1 million then the bank owns you. But if you owe the bank 1$ trillion, then you own the bank. Would China like to diversify elsewhere where they can get a better return. of course. The PM would like us to ask the question.
What is he doing to attract a portion of that number ?
What is he doing to make India is the best place in the world to invest.
Whether he gets another term or not will depend on that answer.
China in twenty years will age faster than India. So they will be even more dependent on returns. They most certainly want to invest here. Working costs are increasing there. Their gdp per capita is higher than us, they would like to shift work here if it makes sense. Not only them many others too. The Japanese & Koreans have been very patiently putting up with our crap. The Japanese have a strategic imperative to diversify out of China.
After Xi's visit in September the question asked was when $100 billion was promised why only a fraction materialised. The simple reason is we are unable to absorb more and this continues to be the case. Of this $20 billion, we have only secured 10% of the land required for the projects concerned. The ball is very clearly in our court.