Israel Hezbollah Pager Attack.

The Israelis have gone in. Sooner than expected. And crucially before the US elections.

This guy has a good grasp of things so I just copied his tweets into one.


Looks like they're going after military targets with this wave. Yeah, there's going to be more.

If Iran thought they could normalise ballistic missile strikes on Israel then these strikes will be the same but its Iran that is going to start looking weak first.

This is Israel's bid to reorder the middle east. Much greatness lies ahead for Israel if successful. Breaking the Shia axis of resistance will go down well with the Sunnis who were dumped by Obama in favour or Iran. The Americans don't see gulf oil as so important anymore. So the gulf states have invested in non oil assets globally to secure their future. Get closer to Israel for defense and overall tech & development.

Israeli know how together with gulf money is a formidable opponent for Iran. The Iranian people are not interested in a fight. Only the mullahs are. Corrupt & decrepit as they are.

What will it take to topple them? That is the goal here. Finally, going after the head of the octopus, as the Israelis like to put it.

Oct 7 was Iran's bid to disrupt an alliance forming between the Sunnis & Israel. It might end up cementing it.

All Israel needs is a little help from the Americans who will jump in after Israel did 95% of the heavy lifting and grab the credit.

US will provide a face saving path to Iran.

Forget the noise Americans make. US needs Iran to keep both the Arabs and Israel in check. If Arabs and Israelis subdue Iran, US will lose relevance in west Asia, something European Zionists Americans will never accept.

blr_p said:

So you can see a difference in approach from the same PM. Therefore they're not equivalent.

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in brief, his approach was similar in both the cases, of not being proactive & of very delayed (military) action. in case of kashmir he was almost reprimanded by sardar patel & gen. thimayya was actually ordered by the latter to proceed for action, while again in case of goa it was menon who galvanised the military into action by sending-in the forces.

dpandey said:

US will provide a face saving path to Iran.

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Only if Harris wins.

dpandey said:

US needs Iran to keep both the Arabs and Israel in check.

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US needs Iran to keep its own allies in check?

dpandey said:

If Arabs and Israelis subdue Iran, US will lose relevance in west Asia

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There is no difference between Trump and Bush on Iran policy. No breach of the NPT will be tolerated as the consequences will spread. Which means the sanctions will come back again.

Once the fracking started Obama didn't see the gulf arabs as important to the regions stabilty as had been American policy since FDR. So moved to improve relations with Iran. The trouble is the deal struck left open the option to go nuclear in the future rather than foreclosing it.

A regime change in Iran will help stability in the region. But the US no longer has the stomach for it.

An open question is whether the Israelis lose their relevance to the gulf Arabs once Iran is no longer a threat. The answer to that is no if oil ceases to be as important in the future as it was in the past. The gulf arabs have to diversify their economies away from oil to secure their future and Israel will be a key partner in doing so

solo_wing said:

They way I see this war has just now started.
Iran's response now will make it or break it.

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Yes, it has and these two are going to be at it but can't do a lot because of the distance.

solo_wing said:

In all this India is going to be loosing quite a lot

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I would have said China. They will lose the discounted Iranian oil if Trump comes back. We moved off Iranian oil when Trump sanctioned iran and haven't returned since.

solo_wing said:

We just bought chabahar port on lease
Plus Iran India work on lot of mutual benefit projects

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This thing moves at such a glacial pace I've lost interest in it.


MOU signed in 2015. It would be eight years before a contract could be made. So trump plus Biden and only this year we felt comfortable to sign a contract.

total of 2.5 million tonnes of wheat and 2,000 tonnes of pulses have been trans-shipped from India to Afghanistan through the Chabahar port so far. In 2021, India supplied 40,000 litres of environment friendly pesticide (Malathion) to Iran through the port to fight locust menace.

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That's all?

We haven't been able to develop it much due to risk of American sanctions. Chahbahar has been on the back burner for a long time now.

solo_wing said:

Then what was the use to lease it.

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Starting point of north south corridor which is a counter to China's belt and road. Then there is bypassing Pakistan to get to Afghanistan. These are all great strategic plans but the present US geopolitics don't help.


The question I have is why did they go ahead with it in the end after such a long wait. Article doesn't give much background. Future expansion plans I guess which she mentions in the video

solo_wing said:

Pay them 500 million usd for just 10 years and way this war is going that 10 year will probably be gone.

It almost looks like giving them 500 million for nothing.

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I can't conclude anything without more background info.

blr_p said:

US needs Iran to keep its own allies in check?

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More like marriage of convenience. Two societies with such different worldviews cannot be allies.

In fact, many Israeli intellectuals have been trying to extricate themselves from this European/American stranglehold on their affairs (Amos oz being one of them).

Anyone who has one hour, take a look at this video. It will give an idea of the theological underpinnings of this weird US/Israel relation.


For some reason, TE doesn't like bit chute links. Search for 'Til Kingdom come'.

I guess I don't have to explain how much the Saudis hate the US.

dpandey said:

More like marriage of convenience. Two societies with such different worldviews cannot be allies.

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That's only a recent development and the American intent was to put a leash on Israel since the 70s. By helping with arms they neuter you since you lose the ability to make them and even the offensive mindset.

In '48, Truman had an arms embargo on Israel. The Soviets worked around it to help the Israelis smuggle arms through Czechoslovakia.

In '56, the Americans demanded Israel return the Sinai to Egypt after they captured it within 8 days. This made Nasser the hero. Ben Gurion felt the Egyptians would start trouble in the future and wanted great power support so he complied with Eisenhowers demands.

UK & France were sanctioned which toppled Eden. The' 67 war was fought and won with French hardware. So three major conflicts without American help and quite hostile in two of them.

Democrats in trying to imitate Nixon are getting it wrong.

dpandey said:

In fact, many Jews have been trying to extricate themselves from this European stranglehold on their affairs (Amos oz being one of them).

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Euros don't have much control other than Germany.

dpandey said:

Anyone who has one hour, take a look at this video. It will give an idea of the theological underpinnings of this weird US/Israel relation.

https://www.b**chute.com/video/yPL6o4GvLdmq

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Hmm, seems to review well but controversial. Anti right wing.

blr_p said:

This thing moves at such a glacial pace I've lost interest in it

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look east - the recent acquisition of the sittwe port might rekindle your interest!

blr_p said:

That's only a recent development and the American intent was to put a leash on Israel since the 70s. By helping with arms they neuter you since you lose the ability to make them and even the offensive mindset.

In '48, Truman had an arms embargo on Israel. The Soviets worked around it to help the Israelis smuggle arms through Czechoslovakia.

In '56, the Americans demanded Israel return the Sinai to Egypt after they captured it within 8 days. This made Nasser the hero. Ben Gurion felt the Egyptians would start trouble in the future and wanted great power support so he complied with Eisenhowers demands.

UK & France were sanctioned which toppled Eden. The' 67 war was fought and won with French hardware. So three major conflicts without American help and quite hostile in two of them.

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Americans have their own grievance list against Israel (and Jews in general). USS liberty, AIPAC, every spying scandal, dual loyalty, control of media, blah blah ...

But the problem is much deeper. If Jews and Europeans (by this I mean people of European descent) are allies, Europeans are the junior partner. The whole European enterprise gets its legitimacy from Jewish scriptures. An European kid's education starts with learning the Jewish genealogy, but not the reverse. When Europeans refer to god, it is the jewish god, not the god of their own ancestors.

In fact, Europeans desecrated their own institutions and ancestors and adopted jewish ones, some even declaring themselves descendants of Issac. They traded 'gnosis' for 'belief' to reconcile with these new fantasies. The jews didn't care and never considered them their own.

Europeans are aware of this asymmetry and resent the jews for it. They may overpower the jews in politics or war, but their spirit has already surrendered. The most famous American president was named 'Abraham'. We will not see a Israeli president named 'Charles' or 'Antony' or 'Reginald' in the near future.

A very good document about Jewish-European tension is 'You gentiles' by Maurice Samuel, written from a jewish prespective. A gut wrenching bur informative read.

dpandey said:

The jews didn't care and never considered them their own.

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Very right comment, in social media Indians those simp for these people don't understand a thing about historical, religious political dynamics.
A temporary geopolitical game my keep India interesting in their books, but the truth may viscerally hurt Indians in the long run.

dpandey said:

US needs Iran to keep both the Arabs and Israel in check.

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Let's unpack this one again. I prefer takes from analysts or ex practitioners like bureaucrats, diplomats or military. Intellectual takes are too complicated.

Caroline said something similar yesterday.

For over a year now we see the US doesn't want Israel to win this war. It wants Israel to fight to a stalemate. They want Hezbollah to retain power in Lebanon and not be defeated. Amos Hochstein is scurrying around Lebanon and Paris to work out a diplomatic deal that essentially leaves hezbollah in a dominant position of power in Lebanon.

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The US doesn't want Israel to rearrange the strategic chessboard by removing Iran's nuclear abilities or help Iranian people oust the mullahs from power. Or asserting long term control over Gaza. Or establish a security zone in southern Lebanon to protect residents of north Israel from a 10x worse attack than Oct 7.

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The US does not want any of that. They want a return to the status quo of Oct 6 where Israel is on the defensive and the side initiating strategic moves in the region and around Israel's borders is Iran either directly or through its proxies.

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Why? Because the Democrats don't see Iran as an enemy of the US. They view Israel as a nuisance to US strategy adopted by Obama and continued by Biden-Harrris of realigning the region towards Iran and away from Israel and the Sunni arabs.

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So its not US but strictly a Democrat thing started by Obama and continued by like minded Democrat administrations.

Because the Democrats see Iran as balancing Israeli & Sunni power. That Iran is a force for stability in the region and Israel is a force of instability in the region because.. Jews. So the US has to block Israel from achieving any strategic advances that expand Israeli regional power and security and protect Iran and it's so called equities like Hezbollah, Bashar Assad, Hamas, Iraqi militias, Houthis that are all controlled by the regime in Tehran.

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All these equities are not allowed to be touched by Israel or degraded in any way that makes them insignificant. These equities need to be maintained. This is why throughout the last year you saw Biden-Harrris harshly oppose any Israeli assaults of strategic significance to Iran.

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The most obvious being the partial arms embargo for going into Rafa. Of opposing Israel taking over the international border with Egypt that prevented Hamas from rebuilding its strength. Preventing Hamas terrorists from entering or leaving through that border. All the time insisting on ceasefires.

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Or what one Indian general termed as isolating the battlefield. What Israel has achieved in Gaza so Hamas is finished but the Americans failed to achieve in Afghanistan.

I think that's a pretty good explanation of what's going on here. People think the US blindly allows Israel to get it's way. That's not the case through Nixon and Obama for their own reasons.

Where Israel does get its way is by defying the US and taking whatever punishment comes after. This part isn't known very well by the anti Israeli lobby. That takes guts and conviction and only few Israeli leaders have the stones for it.

Begin bombing Osirak in '81 meant a delay of F16s for almost two years but it allowed the US to invade and topple Saddam. Similar with taking out the Syrian reactor in 2007 which allowed the US to take out ISIS a decade later. All points mentioned in the videos I posted by former Israeli ambassador, Yoram Ettinger.

So what punishment is coming for Israel after Nov 5? Wait and see. Just how Biden-Harrris intends to screw over Israel.

dpandey said:

If Arabs and Israelis subdue Iran, US will lose relevance in west Asia, something European Zionists Americans will never accept.

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That's not it. The Democrats think the region will be destabilised by ascendant Israeli and gulf Sunni coalition.

This is a matter of opinion between the two political parties in the US. Full credit to Bibi for calling out the feckless Democrat bluffs. Where it gets dangerous is the Democrats won't do anything until Iran tests a nuke. The Israelis are afraid that test will be over Israel. It only takes one Hiroshima or more scale explosion to finish Israel off or create a situation that Israel cannot recover from.

It's so maddening when your most important ally is also the biggest source of resistance to overcome. Doesn't matter how many of your people get attacked. You have a right to self defense but not victory which only perpetuates further conflict.

Peace only comes through complete defeat or one acknowledged by your enemies.

blr_p said:

People think the US blindly allows Israel to get it's way.

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This is a myth propped by Israel's opponents. Seven big countries attacking a nation of 20 million looks bad. A mighty invincible Israel backed by the great Satan America, however, is a legitimate target.

Discussions that Egypt and Jordan is on the verge of serious trouble which can include a collapse...!
Egypt depends on Ukraine wheat with support from west, a rapidly growing population in that extremely arid region is a recipe for trouble, if not now but it's inevitable.
(The annual urban inflation rate in Egypt rose to 26.2% in August 2024 from a near two-year low of 25.7% in the previous month, comfortably beating the market forecasts of 25.1%.)

NEW WIKIPEDIA INVESTIGATION: How Wikipedia’s Pro-Hamas Editors Hijacked the Israel-Palestine Narrative