Indian Stock Market and Mutual Funds

t3chg33k said:
Not sure what to call this beyond gambling. No one would call looking for random listing gains as a trading strategy, so if you are doing that, then go ahead with it.

Swiggy was only the 3rd or 4th IPO I applied for this year and the first one that got allotted. However, didn't even check the price yesterday and probably wouldn't be selling now.
Click to expand...
Whenever we have past high returns in any market, people cant help themselves but gamble. ( Just look at crypto mania. Only actual use of crypto that i have seen is in fraud and crimes. ). US housing blow up was the same.
Have seen it multiple times and have also done it once. Only after some losses people learn ( or stay away ). Some ofc cant help themselves and blow up and then blame everyone else.

But also, just because prices are high does not mean it wont go higher and sometimes they might be justified too based on future. Very hard to deal with all this unemotionally - either just buy and hold or do active trading with tested edge ( works only for < 1% of people).

So far from what i have seen, when people grow crazy chasing ipos, market top is nearby ( atleast for medium term perhaps). But no rule is 100%.
 
Last edited:
TEUser2K1 said:
Doesn't this mean estimated gmp projection went wrong. Wondering how and why.
Click to expand...
SEBI has flagged several SME promoters manipulating their share prices and demand. Then you have all the "influencer" hyping up a specific stock because it is in a specific sector.

I suppose the primary reason is that the Swiggy IPO came at a time when in general discretionary spend has reduced. It is impacting all the consumer goods stocks as well in addition to many foreign investors pulling out of the volatile and overpriced Indian market in favor of US and China.

Lack of these factors led to very few retail purchasers opting for it, though institutional ones still did. The initial exuberance after listing is probably a sign of it being hyped up a bit, but it will probably not sustain. On the Flip side, you could say it is valued a lot less than Zomato presently, so there might be scope for growth, but not in the current market. If anything, Zomato valuation might get adjusted.
 
TEUser2K1 said:
Doesn't this mean estimated gmp projection went wrong. Wondering how and why.
Click to expand...
Yeah I guess. For the past year I only applied those IPOs which yielded more than 50% premium on grey market. Not that I got any other than 1 but still.
What to do with Ntpc green? Overvalued? You guys applying it? Current GMP is 3 rs lmao
 
guest_999 said:
Zomato started earning small profits too while swiggy losses still in thousand crore+.
Click to expand...
Yes, but Swiggy valuation is still lower than when Zomato listed and at that time Zomato losses were nearly the same. Shareholder pressure will make them cut costs now and they wouldn't be burning VC money anymore.
 
1732168397267.png
 
honest1 said:
View attachment 214436
Click to expand...
Referring to a high-ranking government official of Andhra Pradesh as “Foreign Official #1”, it said “Rs 1,750 crore (approximately $228 million) of the corrupt payments was offered in exchange for… causing Andhra Pradesh’s state electricity distribution companies to agree to purchase seven gigawatts of solar power from SECI (state-owned Solar Energy Corporation of India) under the Manufacturing Linked Project.”


Gautam Adani, the indictment said, had personally met “Foreign Official #1” to advance the execution of a power supply agreement between SECI and Andhra Pradesh’s state electricity distribution companies thrice during August-November 2021.
Click to expand...

Offering bribe to government official in itself is a crime, irrespective of when the money was expected to change hands.
 
t3chg33k said:
Offering bribe to government official in itself is a crime, irrespective of when the money was expected to change hands.
Click to expand...
Citing the US federal prosecutors's indictment, Malviya said the states where government officials were paid bribes allegedly by the Adani Group were Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh between July 2021 and February 2022. All these were ruled by opposition parties.

"All the States mentioned here were Opposition ruled during that time. So, before you pontificate, answer on the bribes the Congress and its allies accepted," he said. read more
 
t3chg33k said:
Offering bribe to government official in itself is a crime, irrespective of when the money was expected to change hands.
Click to expand...
I am aware about that.

The challenge lies in proving a crime based on a mere promise without a money exchange, as it’s harder to establish intent. A watertight case must rely on evidence like written agreements, communications, or witness accounts. If money had been exchanged, it becomes easier to demonstrate the act and intent through financial records.
 
gokul.ece22 said:
Anyone from TE holding this stock?

Share name: ELCID Investments

If you have bought this share for 1 lakh few weeks before, you would have 640 crores now.

from 3 rupees to 2.5 lakhs is unbelievable. This is now the costliest stock in India surpassing MRF.

View attachment 212534
Click to expand...

This was a closely held company where shareholders had not been selling their shares for years, and even the promoters were unable to acquire them. The shares were undervalued due to the lack of trading. However, with SEBI's new methodology for pricing non-traded shares, the valuation saw a significant jump. Shareholders already understood the fair value; it is just that the shares are now appropriately priced.
 
honest1 said:
This was a closely held company where shareholders had not been selling their shares for years, and even the promoters were unable to acquire them. The shares were undervalued due to the lack of trading. However, with SEBI's new methodology for pricing non-traded shares, the valuation saw a significant jump. Shareholders already understood the fair value; it is just that the shares are now appropriately priced.
Click to expand...
The book value is still higher, so you could say it didn't even reach its fair value. You can trade only if you have free float which everyone assumes just exists.

honest1 said:
I am aware about that.

The challenge lies in proving a crime based on a mere promise without a money exchange, as it’s harder to establish intent. A watertight case must rely on evidence like written agreements, communications, or witness accounts. If money had been exchanged, it becomes easier to demonstrate the act and intent through financial records.
Click to expand...
The government has to first provide evidence to the grand jury for the indictment to even happen. At least the grand jury thinks there is enough evidence to prosecute. The SEC has also raised a civil suit on anti-bribery violations.

Kenya has already canceled a deal based on the information shared presumably by US, so it has some basis.
www.thehindu.com

Kenya cancels airport and energy deals with Adani group after U.S. indicts the tycoon

Kenyan President cancels airport deal with Adani Group after indictment in U.S., denies bribery allegations.
www.thehindu.com www.thehindu.com

What happens legally remains to be seen.
Emperor said:
Citing the US federal prosecutors's indictment, Malviya said the states where government officials were paid bribes allegedly by the Adani Group were Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh between July 2021 and February 2022. All these were ruled by opposition parties.

"All the States mentioned here were Opposition ruled during that time. So, before you pontificate, answer on the bribes the Congress and its allies accepted," he said. read more
Click to expand...
Well, Adani gets the deal directly in BJP states, so it will only be the opposition ones where they have to pay out. Just says a lot about the state of politics in this country in general.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top