Israel Hezbollah Pager Attack.

dpandey said:

Handing over Syria to Al-Qaida was prob a well thought out move. Pieces falling into place:

'What’s our fate, our brothers?': Syrian Druze call to be annexed to Israel

A convention of dignitaries from the Druze village of Hader in the Syrian Golan called to join the Israeli Golan.

www.jpost.com

Click to expand...

Still struggling to figure this out. A couple of things seem likely

- a civil war or close to it in Lebanon as the minority Christians, Druze & Sunnis push back a weakened Shia Hezbollah.

- whether the establishment of an Islamist state in Syria threatens the moderate Jordan and gulf monarchs due to the Muslim brotherhood getting a foothold in Syria. Saudis definitely won't want that so will act to counter it in Syria like Turkey wants to suppress the Kurds.

dpandey said:

I am waiting for the day Akhundzada attacks the quad-state west of India. West Panjabi's and Sindhis will signing petitions to join the Akhand Bharat project

Click to expand...

Yeah, that one turned out different to what was expected. Instead of increasing attacks on j&k by the Taliban it was Pakistan that has to deal with the reopened border dispute by a nationalist Taliban about the Durand line cutting through Pashtun country

IDF has to defend UN peacekeepers posted to the Israel-Syria border from armed attacks

The US relies on a kurdish group inside Syria known as the PKK to guard ISIS prisoners and keep a control. This policy dates back to the Obama era.

The Turks consider PKK a seperatist/terrorist group that at all costs must be kept away from their border and defeated.

What a betrayal of an ally by the Obama administration. Was it so hard to ask Turkey to do the job instead of the PKK? Yes, because that would upset Iran and back in 2014 Obama wanted to have a nuke deal with them. Over time the Israelis have also started supporting the kurds.

The easiest way out of this situation is for the US & Israel to abandon the Kurds. That would prevent both from getting on the wrong side of Turkey & the new government in Syria. More important that Israel does so but they seem oblivious.

Given what Trump said about not getting involved in Syria, it would not be a surprise that within the first year of his term he withdraws the 1,000 or so odd US personnel presently stationed in Syria to combat IS.

There isn't agreement as yet whether to abandon the Kurds or not.

Failing which both Turkey & US troops will be up against each other. There is an odd exception in the NATO rules. Article 5 won't be invoked should members engage each other so long as it does not occur in NATO territory (!)

Which option do you think will happen?

blr_p said:

There isn't agreement as yet whether to abandon the Kurds or not.

Click to expand...

They are already abandoned, their destiny is now left to their own fate.
Now countries around that region will divide and take over Syria.

I can understand the Americans not getting this one right but Israeli intel too

The only reason the Israelis went into Lebanon was because the PM decided the price was worth it whatever it was.

Oh and the chief of staff and the defense minister were against the pager operation. The PM overuled them and went ahead. The date was brought forward due to a leak from the Israeli government.

Can you can see why the defense minister was sacked. Highly decorated vet that he was but not of the same political mindset.

Pager operation happened at right time, if bibi waited for everybody else's consensus the charge might've got expired and not working when it was desperately needed.
Right now, Israel's handler USA is weak due to Biden's mental state together with ongoing mega RUvsUA war, multiple conflicts in every other place, etc., so Israel can do whatever the want if they strategize correctly.
Things may change once Trump take over.

TEUser2K1 said:

Pager operation happened at right time, if bibi waited for everybody else's consensus the charge might've got expired and not working when it was desperately needed.

Click to expand...

There would be no consensus and the only way was for the PM to overrule the military. So to oppose the PM it is arranged to leak info about the pager operation to one of the Israeli papers. If you make public these plans then it cannot be carried out. This is treason.

TEUser2K1 said:

Right now, Israel's handler USA is weak due to Biden's mental state together with ongoing mega RUvsUA war, multiple conflicts in every other place, etc., so Israel can do whatever the want if they strategize correctly.

Click to expand...

No, it's the opposite. Biden has interferred every step of the way with constant threats. The chief of staff and defense minister were American puppets. Whatever the Americans opposed then so would these two. So much delays were imposed. Over five months wasted.

TEUser2K1 said:

Things may change once Trump take over.

Click to expand...

For the better. His defense secretary as well as him have said Israel needed to take out Iran's nuclear infrastructure. That means when the time is right Israel will be given the greenlight. After the sanctions have had time to weaken Iran.

It's too late now according to the IAEA chief to ask for reducing enrichment as Iran is close to break out.

How to fix it? F-35

The same intel people predicted that Iran would plunge the entire gulf into war. Everyone is then afraid of oil prices shooting up. This will not happen.

Iran has no airforce nor navy. Their army isn't going to invade anyone. A year ago Iran was looking strong but now its alone and incapable of properly retaliating.

This operation could have been done back in 2012 if Obama didn't betray the Israelis by making their warplans public.

blr_p said:

If you make public these plans then it cannot be carried out. This is treason.

Click to expand...

Should be a lesson to other countries, Israel being an outlier sturdy and resilient country still had to face these kind of treacherous elements from within, imagine conditions in other countries.
Don't want to see Iran to dragged into bloody quagmire, terse diplomatic and social orchestration can solve issues there. At least on the front face, they seems to be a ready for dialogues and diplomacy.
The world is daily moving towards bloody anarchy like a slow moving molasses trail, good leaders should be finding ways to solve issues than creating new ones. Because issues else where may effect and cause suffering to people elsewhere, who have nothing much to do with all this.

TEUser2K1 said:

Should be a lesson to other countries, Israel being an outlier sturdy and resilient country still had to face these kind of treacherous elements from within, imagine conditions in other countries.

Click to expand...

That's not the end of it. Judiciary has decided now when Israel is fighting on seven fronts, is the right time to try the PM on bribery charges. He needs to spend 6h per day for three days per week so total of 18h per week explaining about cigars and champagne (!)


You can't try a sitting president in the US. But you can in Israel.

The judiciary there seems to have a lot of power. Before Oct 7, Bibi's party was trying to rein the judiciary. This led to opposition blocking roads all over the place saying democracy is at risk.

Check out this video by former PM Ehud Barak. Highly decorated vet but not so smart opposition politician.

What is he calling for?

- Worst threat is internal threat. Bibi
- Non violent civil disobedience is the only option for patriots
- PM is unfit. Government is illegitimate
- Call for complete national shutdown only emergency services working
- MPs should boycott parliament and only return when it is dissolved
- government will fall in a matter of weeks

He is resurrecting the opposition to curbing the powers of the judiciary. The chaos quasi civil war before Oct 7.

They are so afraid of Bibi winning the war they are determined he should be taken out somehow.

I really don't know how this country manages to function with such crazy politics

The state of civil military fusion is absolutely appalling. Both are fighting the other. Opposition cares only for their party and not national interest. Oct 7 brought them together. Now it's coming apart.

How the hell are you going to win anything in this state!

TEUser2K1 said:

Don't want to see Iran to dragged into bloody quagmire, terse diplomatic and social orchestration can solve issues there. At least on the front face, they seems to be a ready for dialogues and diplomacy.

Click to expand...

That is what Iran will try to do. But time is running out. So Trump's plan is maximum pressure 2.0 with kinetic action on the table.

TEUser2K1 said:

The world is daily moving towards bloody anarchy like a slow moving molasses trail, good leaders should be finding ways to solve issues than creating new ones. Because issues else where may effect and cause suffering to people elsewhere, who have nothing much to do with all this.

Click to expand...

Democrats plan is to allow Turkey & Iran to be the hegemons in the middle east. Democrats consider Israel a trouble maker and Saudis of no consequence and the Saudis know it. This way there will be balance. Really?

If you rule out Iran it will lead to the rise of Turkey.

Will Turkey become the next trouble maker?

Jury is out on that one.

blr_p said:

Will Turkey become the next trouble maker?

Click to expand...

Turkey is a nice country, used to be good people.
Now, their politics almost turned upside down.

Their foreign Office has responded


The turks are massing on the Syrian border. Ready to go deal with the PKK in Syria. The US objects..


The US is not going to abandon the kurds.

Turkey cannot avoid going after the PKK.

If the PKK surrenders then all is good otherwise US sanctions on Turkey

TEUser2K1 said:

Turkey is a nice country, used to be good people.
Now, their politics almost turned upside down.

Erdogan Calls On Muslim Nations To Impose Military, Economic Sanctions On Israel

Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan calls out the Islamic countries to take strict action against Israel. President Erdogan proposes steps including an arms embargo on Israel, end trade with Israel and international isolation. Watch. #turkey #erdogan #turkeypresident #israel #netanyahu...

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Click to expand...

Turkey, Pakistan & Iran - These three countries are trying to make themselves the head of all Islamic nations. Hence their constant attacks on non islamic countries and starting a collective jihad etc against Israel. Saudis etc all know these countries have no backbone or money so they turn a blind eye to them. More likey they are just ignoring them like people ignore barking stray dogs on a road.

Regarding Bibi, he doesn't care about the US political support or the US population

Also Putin said some interesting things in this video. Only 300 HTS men was enough to make 30000 strong Syrian/Iranian fighters to abandon Aleppo.
Russian had no ground troops. Russians had to evacuate Iranian fighters to their base and air lift them to Iran.
Putin wants their syrian base and port to be operational and he wants other friendly countries to use it for shipping humantarian aid.

adder said:

Regarding Bibi, he doesn't care about the US political support or the US population

Click to expand...

In general until the 70s that would be true. Not after.

adder said:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1866060193135534264

Click to expand...

The date gives an indication. 2001. I don't buy his explanation of Bibi sabotaging Oslo. It was an honest effort that blew up in the Israelis faces.

Arafat refused to deal and started the second intifada in 2000. Which went on for five years. The pals were never interested in a two state solution. They want one state with jews gone. At the time in `93 the left thought they could get it done under Rabin. He was assassinated in '95 and it was for Bibi to make Oslo work. His concern was security guarantees. Heart of hearts the right in Israel knows there isn't an answer to this security question. You already saw what happened with Gaza. Under Sharon, Israel left Gaza completely in 2005. After he ended the second intifada majority agreed. Except the Israelis that were living there. Who firmly believe Oct 7 would never have happened if they were not made to leave. Forcibly in some instances.

Bibi served '96 to' 99. So in this video he's in opposition and the attacks were coming hard and fast and no military solution was in sight as yet.

Then Ehud Barak becomes PM from '99 to 2001. Pulled out of Lebanon in 2000 after 18 years there. In hindsight this wasn't a good idea as 2006 they had to go back. He was unable to end the second intifada.

That would have to wait for Ariel Sharon whose solution was to build a wall. It worked and by 2005, attacks in Israel slowed to a trickle. Today a lot of the onerous checks when crossing between the two places date to the second intifada. Which clearly demonstrated the pals were not interested in peaceful co-existence.

The world still hasn't got this. Our foreign office still goes on about two state delusion. So does UK, Russia, China & US.

adder said:

Also Putin said some interesting things in this video. Only 300 HTS men was enough to make 30000 strong Syrian/Iranian fighters to abandon Aleppo.

Click to expand...

He doesn't answer why that happened.

adder said:

Russian had no ground troops. Russians had to evacuate Iranian fighters to their base and air lift them to Iran.

Click to expand...

True, Russia at this point was only doing close air support and depended on Hezbollah and whatever else Iran could give as ground forces. What happened?

Hezbollah had no high command. Couldn't organise to handle Syria. If Hezbollah wasn't there the Syrians who had not been paid for months were not going to fight. Credit goes to the Turks for seeing the opportunity and exploiting it.

Is Syria under Erdogan now? Syria is not a Turkish colony as yet.

adder said:

Putin wants their syrian base and port to be operational and he wants other friendly countries to use it for shipping humantarian aid.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1869735572740485531

Click to expand...

They will have to come to some arrangement. But it's iffy. Iran was seen as supporting Assad that oppressed them.

How does Russia avoid that perception?

Yep, don't know how to explain this one

We've already moved on to the next thing and they will have to guess what it is



Not a whole lot new in here but still has interesting bits.

Imagine what Nasrallah thinks when some of his personnel in his bunker get paged and he sees them dropping one after the other..


After a few violations that Israel responded firmly the cease fire with Hezbollah appears to be holding