Demonetisation and its Aftermath

[blr_p]

New currency notes cannot be printed by a private company after Govt bought currency production under RBI (Indian Ministry of Finance)

and only BRBNMPL has the tech to produce new notes. So its common sense that new notes are printed by them?

https://m.rbi.org.in/Scripts/AnnualReportPublications.aspx?Id=1235

RBI annual report. Gives the exact figure how many notes were printed.

ok so there is a lot in there and shows we do make the current notes

Yes. they're good enough. Earlier dull colors were easier to spot but now these outlandish colors makes shopkeepers check twice before accepting them.

So this is the thing, we make efforts and still the fakes are good enough

Sustained efforts were made towards indigenisation of banknotes production with sophisticated security features.
And here we see how many counterfeits were detected by denomination post notes ban.

How long until the new fakes detected reaches levels of the old notes ? ie 100k+ detected annually

Those figures are still small. In 2015-16, 14 cr worth of fake Rs.1000 notes found. Jumps to 25 cr in 2016-17 and then drops back to 10cr the year after

Its not cultural. Its a push by chinese government to monitor population and keep dissent in check. Both alibaba and tencent receive massive amounts of money by chinese govt and these companies are also required by law to give data to goverment.

It is easier to deny services to people with low social credit scores if the only way to avail those services is epayments with ID attached.

 

[adventureguy]

^ Yup. Thats why I'm in favor of plastic notes. They are harder to fake and also the fakes notes' printing doesn't last long. (fake notes will still be present but they will be easier to spot, also the printing will not last long)

also yeah, china is already denying people with low social credit scores with airports and train stations access. ****ed up

 

[blr_p]

What does the word 'indent' signify in that table ? they made an order for so many notes ? were they delivered and can we consider them as the amount in circulation ?

Then there is 'supply' which i presume is the notes in circulation.[DOUBLEPOST=1556806788][/DOUBLEPOST]

^ Yup. Thats why I'm in favor of plastic notes. They are harder to fake and also the fakes notes' printing doesn't last long. (fake notes will still be present but they will be easier to spot, also the printing will not last long)

And what about the national security risk giving this order to a foreign company ?

Or are you referring to when we can mint plastic notes in country some time in the future

 

[toocool6600]

^ Yup. Thats why I'm in favor of plastic notes. They are harder to fake and also the fakes notes' printing doesn't last long. (fake notes will still be present but they will be easier to spot, also the printing will not last long)

also yeah, china is already denying people with low social credit scores with airports and train stations access. ****ed up

Low score also means no marriage and no living in main cities, and living in outer cities with much less facilities, no one will marry person with low score

The call to that person will caution the caller that you are going to talk to a low score person and beware in that case

 

[adventureguy]

What does the word 'indent' signify in that table ? they made an order for so many notes ? were they delivered and can we consider them as the amount in circulation ?

Then there is 'supply' which i presume is the notes in circulation.

indent is basically government term for "order".

supply means number of notes actually supplied to RBI.I don't think it means notes in circulation because RBI stores some notes for emergencies, logistics etc

And what about the national security risk giving this order to a foreign company ?

Or are you referring to when we can mint plastic notes in country some time in the future

No, Im talking about our country. We can easily print our own plastic notes if govt/RBI is willing. We already have good currency presses. We just have to install the new machines.[DOUBLEPOST=1556855769][/DOUBLEPOST]

Low score also means no marriage and no living in main cities, and living in outer cities with much less facilities, no one will marry person with low score

The call to that person will caution the caller that you are going to talk to a low score person and beware in that case

yeah ****ed up.

 

[ssslayer]

I don't know which country's notes you're comparing against but our currency notes are the worst I've ever seen.

Looks like you have forgotten / haven't seen the American dollar yet: https://www.uscurrency.gov/denominations

 

[blr_p]

Quelle surprise

No study done on note-ban impact on economy, jobs: Govt

The Centre admitted it has not done any impact assessment of 2016 demonetisation on the economy or employment.

www.deccanherald.com

 

[Crapmypants]

Demonetisation had no effect on Indian economy: Nirmala Sitharaman

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said economic growth is high on the agenda of the government and various reforms are being undertaken in many spheres to improve GDP growth.

www.thehindu.com

"India still continues to be the fastest growing economy and demonetisation has had no effect on the Indian economy, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told the Rajya Sabha on July 2. "

I can't help but feel that this government cares more about what others think than what is actually happening on the ground.

 

[nimod]

Demonetisation had no effect on Indian economy: Nirmala Sitharaman

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said economic growth is high on the agenda of the government and various reforms are being undertaken in many spheres to improve GDP growth.

www.thehindu.com

"India still continues to be the fastest growing economy and demonetisation has had no effect on the Indian economy, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told the Rajya Sabha on July 2. "

I can't help but feel that this government cares more about what others think than what is actually happening on the ground.

So why so much money was spent for this `ineffective` exercise?
Why a national-crisis was created for this economically futile accident?
Why are we not holding anyone responsible?

 

[ssslayer]

So why so much money was spent for this `ineffective` exercise?
Why a national-crisis was created for this economically futile accident?
Why are we not holding anyone responsible?

Hush, are you even patriotic?
Go to Pakistan you traitor.

 

[chiron]

Send FM to Pakistan too. How dare she deny the great benefits of demonetization? BJP winning the elections proves that demonetization was great for the country.

 

[toocool6600]

You guys seem to be stuck in a time loop

 

[chiron]

Why?

 

[MuttonBiryani]

So why so much money was spent for this `ineffective` exercise?
Why a national-crisis was created for this economically futile accident?
Why are we not holding anyone responsible?

To curb black money holders. If you really want black money that badly, then store it in foreign currency

 

[abhi1984]

Demonetisation had no effect on Indian economy: Nirmala Sitharaman

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said economic growth is high on the agenda of the government and various reforms are being undertaken in many spheres to improve GDP growth.

www.thehindu.com

"India still continues to be the fastest growing economy and demonetisation has had no effect on the Indian economy, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told the Rajya Sabha on July 2. "

I can't help but feel that this government cares more about what others think than what is actually happening on the ground.

Over the course of last 4 months I have made a point to read at least 2 company's annual report each year. And I have yet to encounter a company which did not slow down in FY2016-17. Not even a single one. Here's something which I was just reading in Britannia's report:
"The slowdown in growth that started from the second half of FY 2016-17, continued for a good part of the FY 2017-18. Later half of the year saw growths coming back albeit on a base that was muted"

I can find such instances in all the 40+ companies I have looked at.

So Nirmala Sitharaman is full of shit when she tells that there was no effect.

Though RBI's assertion is also correct (article linked by @blr_p ). The article is also a good example of poorly researched article which fails provide in-depth knowledge. Thanks to RBI's actions MSME credit has grown in last 2 years and it is on the path to grow even more with TReDS.

 

[nimod]

To curb black money holders. If you really want black money that badly, then store it in foreign currency

All the 'carorpati' black money hoarders I know have converted their black money to White during demonetisation days.

Should I be thankful to the govt for this?

Post automatically merged: Jul 9, 2019

And, Bajaj finance is also convinced the slow down is neither due to demonetisation nor due to GST.

How deep is the consumption slowdown? Bajaj Finance gives hints

Sanjiv Bajaj, managing director of Bajaj Finserve thinks the slowdown is 'dramatic'.The fact that consumption stocks haven’t seen great days, shows that Indians have begun postponing their purchases

www.livemint.com

 

[MuttonBiryani]

All the 'carorpati' black money hoarders I know have converted their black money to White during demonetisation days.

Should I be thankful to the govt for this?

Post automatically merged: Jul 9, 2019

And, Bajaj finance is also convinced the slow down is neither due to demonetisation nor due to GST.

How deep is the consumption slowdown? Bajaj Finance gives hints

Sanjiv Bajaj, managing director of Bajaj Finserve thinks the slowdown is 'dramatic'.The fact that consumption stocks haven’t seen great days, shows that Indians have begun postponing their purchases

www.livemint.com

Ofcourse there will be a way out. If everyone starts being arrested for holding black money, then who will run the country and how will government win the next election? ‍Infact you should be happy that holding black money is even easier than before due to the newly introduced 2000 Rs notes. Before you needed 2hundred 500 Rs notes to store 1L Rs black money, now that number has been reduced to 50 due to newly introduced 2000 Rs notes

 

[Mr.J]

And their size is smaller than previous notes lol.

 

[chiron]

Could be game changing if thickness is less too.

 

[blr_p]

Here is one reason for the notes ban

The clue to demonetisation lies in a suicide in Pakistan

Demonetisation was a pre-emptive strike on Pakistans response to the surgical strikes.

zeenews.india.com

To avert a major terror attack by the Paks in retaliation for India's raid in PO J&K after the Uri attack.

Our first raid into PO J&K was the night of Sept 29 2016

The Paks want to get back so they will send in fake notes.

We anticipate it, Modi invalidates the notes Nov 08 or a month later.

Pre-emptive move.

So the rationale for notes ban was security related and not economic.

And certainly not political as i thought at the time.

Nothing to do with black money which is undeclared rather invalidating fake money to avert terrorist attacks or a big one.

On the surface this makes sense. It was a highly rash move that just did not make sense on a political or economic basis.

No govt likes to invalidate its currency that bears its promise to pay the recipient a certain sum.

The only reason to do it is to save lives.

Best decision that could be made based on the best intel available at the time is the way these matter are handled.