Economic Decline finally hits India too. Govt. in denial?

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Spain is in deep economic crisis. Here is a comparison of where India stands in comparison to Spain.

[TABLE="width: 500, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]Country[/TD]
[TD]Interest on Govt. Debt[/TD]
[TD]Debt Rating[/TD]
[TD]Debt as % of GDP[/TD]
[TD]Inflation %[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Spain[/TD]
[TD]6.28[/TD]
[TD]BBB+[/TD]
[TD]60[/TD]
[TD]2.10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]India[/TD]
[TD]8.37[/TD]
[TD]BBB-[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD]7.23[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

BBB- is a minor step above Junk/Not-Investment grade. A downgrade, due to external (say worsening EU) or internal (poor governance) factors, will mean a significant rise in the interest rate. Significant debt is denominated in USD. Weakening INR already means higher interest payment.
 
Hell man.... if so much is going wrong then why is our media sitting like shameless ducks... and not explaining the seriousness of this mess to the nation....
Cheap politicians and cheap media... have made this country a cheap country in terms of standards & transparency for foreign investments...
 
Lets look on the bright side.We are one of the poorest nations on the planet in terms of GDP per capita.There is not much room to go down and so we will keep going up.
 
Basically the gravy train is over. What started in the 90's and gained momentum, has failed to chug along with rampant mismanagement, core corruption, and no policy implementation at the upper level. We will probably move to Junk Status as per S&P. That will further hit the FII inwards, and the rupee will probably cool off @ 60/$. Pranab Da, goes on quote to say, that these ratings mean nothing, and India is still growing. No ways, will companies and firms have confidence in India and investments will dwindle. I think it is all ready way too late. It has slipped. We rather as a nation like to scrutinize why starlets were involved in IPL fixing vs. actually running the country in a meaningful fashion. What an insult it will be to be "out of the BRIC". Lame. For Christ's sake, we cannot even get a vote for the next President. Didi, is twirling them around. She is running our nation now.

:)
 
onlyravi said:
Hell man.... if so much is going wrong then why is our media sitting like shameless ducks... and not explaining the seriousness of this mess to the nation....
Cheap politicians and cheap media... have made this country a cheap country in terms of standards & transparency for foreign investments...
Click to expand...
The media is very responsible, they have covered.......ooohh, the new Dhoom 3 trailer looks totally kickass. ;)
 
I am thinking about taking my company out of India. With the rupee falling like this, if I convert my $$s into Rupees, when I have to spend/invest 1 year later, I have suffer a 20% loss. Doesnt make sense at all.
 
Todays News is that in april industrial growth is only 0.1% this is worst of all previously in good times it is 5.6% i.e. in jan or feb of this year. People should unite and fight this situation. Politician are playing bad role in this situation they are hiding all the bad facts and also they are not trying to compensate this situation to good even they are trying to avoid it.

Government should take the hard decisions without thinking about the next ruling sessions.
 
Basically the gravy train is over. What started in the 90's and gained momentum, has failed to chug along with rampant mismanagement, core corruption, and no policy implementation at the upper level. We will probably move to Junk Status as per S&P. That will further hit the FII inwards, and the rupee will probably cool off @ 60/$. Pranab Da, goes on quote to say, that these ratings mean nothing, and India is still growing. No ways, will companies and firms have confidence in India and investments will dwindle. I think it is all ready way too late. It has slipped. We rather as a nation like to scrutinize why starlets were involved in IPL fixing vs. actually running the country in a meaningful fashion. What an insult it will be to be "out of the BRIC".
Click to expand...


The govt is lame and the PM the most docile ever seen. And i really am sad to say this.
The govt basically never had the guts to introduce measures to reduce corruption, leave alone remove it. Every issue was brushed under the carpet and only thing we mastered were the scams. Then came the dubious act of looking the other way when the MPs carried out activities like making parks or illegal mining to create a Dravidian Bay.
This probably is the time to bring in the money stashed abroad and kickstart the process to eradicate corruption, but both the factions.. UPA / BJP are gfn and just the two sides of the same coin. God forbids if we get kicked out of BRICS, i dont think either of these parties will have anything to cling onto, so i am hoping something will be done.


(Apologies for a rant-ish sort of a post)



asingh said:
For Christ's sake, we cannot even get a vote for the next President. Didi, is twirling them around. She is running our nation now.
Click to expand...

How dare you say this.. are you a maoist??
:P
 
Spacescreamer said:
How dare you say this.. are you a maoist??
:P
Click to expand...
I think they are the last hope.

cool_cat said:
somewhere I read internal demand will help India recover. any truth?
Click to expand...
They say this always, but exports are important for a country like ours. Plus internal demands, get put a subsidy filter/mechanism -and- never reaches where it is should. I siphoned off in between, and the black economy flourishes.
 
Don't forget that debating on and taking decisions on and punishing cartoonist is more important here,
Changing then names of roads and cities is more important here than thinking about the country, implementing policies and thinking about the common man
 
Govenment should also consider Anna Hazare and baba ramdev name for president seat. Both of them are able to bring back Black and colourful money.

Sorry for offtopic but dont want to start a new trhread.
 
First congress Government::THe congress is much serious about it completing five years in centre as they only have this tag line of being the only party in the country who can keep its a@# stable for 5 years in centre even though people like karuna,mamta and others can bend it as they want.

Regarding India situation::In 1990 days forex reserves were hardly available for 15 days to last .From present condition it can last atleast 6-7 months.Hence RBI can console the falling rupee.

Regarding coins replacement::Thats a totally different topic.But i read in old times when we all used to get gold coins and later democratic setup got in.The government came to know they can earn thrice the amount by melting the same and printing new currency of same value of cheaper metal.Hence that way they use to tackle fisical deficit.I guess the term for same is debasement .I am not sure but that way also government used to tackle its problem.

Present Indian scenario::Well to be fact 2008 recession wasnt a hard hitting stuff for india as our many market was europe for export sectors.
But the scenario is changing elsewhere.Us the biggest importer of products is all of a sudden turning into exporter of oils.With shale gases it again have reserves much more than present middle east countries.In sort one of our market is out of reach.Europe now dont have capacity to pay for products.Though some of the PIGS may have capacity to repay but the restructuring have made other feels if this countries can go through without repaying why dont we also do the same which is not a good sign for Euro currency .As already billions on money in debt which is down the drain is somewhere there in some other economy.GIving more such euros will furthur increase supply and will hit the currency.

Dollar is also not much better but it got new lease of life as number 2 currency EURO is at brink to fall.So again dollar becomes safe heaven.Also problem in US is after QE2 the banks were still not ready to give loans but now even if they are ready they not getting customers as their citizen have change attitude from spender to saver.Earlier even if cars used to get punture they used to go to buy new cars.But now even if they get seriously damage they repair it and reuse same.Its not easy for companies to change attitude easily and they are still producing at almost similar capacity but sales are not at that levels.

Whats wrong with India why is rupee falling::The government is taking baby steps and that too one a year that way even when baby turns 70 he/she is not confident whether he/she can walk or not.FDI in retail,aviation and many more such issues dates back from NDA times.But what have government done.They are unable to even get 40000 crore rupees by selling government psu shares but ready to bail out AIR INDIA type company which have been made from good to worst by one of their allies who have shares in pvt companies by canceling all profitable routes.Do you think TATAs,BIRLAs doesnt know what the government doing.Favoring one in each sector whether aviation whether retail or whether land reforms the outsiders knows whats happening.And government not ready to take action against culprits like p.patel,raja,kalmadi and many more.Retail growth story was kicked and now Kishore biyani the father of modern retail in INDIA who on government thinking sat at huge debt of 10000 crores had finally need to sell all his brain childs panataloon and all.Next in box is big bazaar brand which will go out of hands.

Also the government is spending thrice to 5 times its money but the worst part is not like CHINA where its spend for capital expenditure(buying property and long term assets which might pay in future).but doing revenue expenditure(paying salaries or money to people via NREGA and all scheme which wont come back or wont build an asset).A poor getting the money will able to meet his daily needs easily but wont make him pay taxes on the contrary people who are paying taxes feels NREGA type projects is reducing job seekers as people not ready to migrate and they feeling the heat of no workers no job done less taxes paid.Hence one side government reducing its tax base and on other side is feeding other with fish instead of teaching them how to fish.Also the whole black money matter have now made people from other countries or the country themselves to reveal their source from where the money coming or going out of the country.Will country like greece be ready to disclose it invested 10000 of crores in indian share market via participatory notes which was the money of their banks.Of-course not.Hence net outflow is going up than net inflow.And small countries like Dubai,thailand and indonesia scoring here.
Hence money outflow is more than money inflow also no action taken on infrastructure(acquiring lands for roads,buildings),land reforms(half of the countries lands belongs to politicans),retail(worried about allies),aviation(worried that pvt airlines will dominate the country).Hence no support rupee is getting.

What the government needs to do or will do::What the government needs to do well we all know but it wont be done untill 3rd or 4th quarter of next year as elections will be more nearer.But problem is countries elsewhere are changing fast again on monday election in greece happening and if again no party gets majority again a fall will start in share market again big outflow will take place.

The government must stop revenue expenditures and start stake sale in profitable psu like coal india,sbi to finance its needs.The way it handle ONGC stake sale is one of the worst piece on move.A stock available for 285 in open market and company like LIC(people money company) buys shares at 295 per share that too crore of shares and even everyone know that share is not worth more than 270 at that period really shows the attitude of government.Knowingly putting Axe on ones leg.
Also the government need to stop bills like food security bill for present as another 1 lakh crore will add to the coffers.

Note::I tried my best to keep it as laymen as possible.My knowledge is based mostly from newspaper reading on dna money ,ht and ET.I might be wrong in some numbers or terms as i mostly follow couple of writers and reading is base from the year 2008 to present.If any mistakes be free to correct me.Also any doubt if i have the knowledge ill try to share it.
 
Main **** up was and is our subsidy issues and rampant corruption.

Great madams Gandhi is hell bent on pushing schemes like anaaj at 2rs per kilo and that requires huge subsidy on government side.

According to our ruling party this all can get them votes than reforms.

I am loosing hopes on this current as well as alternate setup.

Things went bad Are

1) emergence of regional parties.
That led to loss of implementing of national policy.

2) lack of visionary leadership.
Our prime minister is capable guy but his hands are tied down by the Gandhi dynasty and Rahul baba is also no where shown effective. He is currently on one foreign trip after other when our country is deep economical and political turmoil.

I predict priyanka Gandhi will emerge in next loksabha elections. And Rahul baba will continue in executive roles.
Sonia Gandhi being in sickness , I don't expect much from her either.
I doubt whether she will stand for 2014 election of loksabha.
She will enter rajya Sabha.
 
Another issue is rampant corruption.

Each and every minister is hell bent to fill up its coffers first and foremost.

Air india is whole another issue.
Air india first screwed up under patel leader ship.
He had lot of funny rides in air india and did lot of Zhol their in aircraft purchase.

Then famous merger of air india and Indian airlines.
This national carrier is set to go bankrupt sooner or later and either tata or birla will pick up the controlling stake under name of divestment.

Am sure our aviation ministry has stake in all private airlines and hellbent to shut down the national carrier.
 
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