Lockdown gets over OR get extended ? What do you think ?
- Thread starter Futureized
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blr_p
Level N
I think its a load of BUNK
Just a heads up
Not exactly. It has been wrongly attributed to WHO in the forwards. It was based on forecasts arrived at using mathematical models, published by Cambridge researchers. The actual source of that info is this: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.12055.pdfI think its a load of BUNK
Just a heads up
^^ WHO can not recommend lockdown period in any country. And they never did. Logistopath`s post on the mathematical model is actually the real one.
But it has plenty of loopholes and fallacies.
This model didn`t include the number of tests being done per million population, which is possibly the most important factor in any prediction. More over "False Negative" cases are a major concern for India now ( I raised the point earlier, as some idiots in youtube is telling that false positives are the problem, this happens when internal medicine people gets into public health, false positives usually do not cause major problems in management of an epidemic, except more pressure on the physicians and if the drug used is not very toxic.
Though statistically no.3 and 4 of the above graphs are showing most promising results, in reality things will be very very different.
ICMR is boasting for about a week now that they can test 1 lakh sample every day, but the maximum has been around 13-14K, and India is on the 3rd week of lockdown!!
Lockdown only approach is going to be an absolute disaster without increasing the tests very drastically.
No half measures have worked out against this virus anywhere. India can very well experience a very steep rise even as late as December and beyond.
Some people were screaming for serology testing, they do not even understand how it works. IgG takes about 8 days to be detected, IgM even later. And IgG specially is not a very specific parameter. The serology tests are inexpensive, relatively rapid, but it is not practical to use it everywhere, as 8 day is long enough time to transmit thousands/ millions ( can be useful in prognosticate the confirmed cases, that way the the confirmed cases won`t need kit tests, and a lot of kits will be availbale for screening)
I urge everyone to read Medscape or Pubmed articles on Corona, not these random sites.
Youtube is even more dangerous. Med cram is possibly the only credible channel, but it`s primarily for doctors.
But it has plenty of loopholes and fallacies.
This model didn`t include the number of tests being done per million population, which is possibly the most important factor in any prediction. More over "False Negative" cases are a major concern for India now ( I raised the point earlier, as some idiots in youtube is telling that false positives are the problem, this happens when internal medicine people gets into public health, false positives usually do not cause major problems in management of an epidemic, except more pressure on the physicians and if the drug used is not very toxic.
Though statistically no.3 and 4 of the above graphs are showing most promising results, in reality things will be very very different.
ICMR is boasting for about a week now that they can test 1 lakh sample every day, but the maximum has been around 13-14K, and India is on the 3rd week of lockdown!!
Lockdown only approach is going to be an absolute disaster without increasing the tests very drastically.
No half measures have worked out against this virus anywhere. India can very well experience a very steep rise even as late as December and beyond.
Some people were screaming for serology testing, they do not even understand how it works. IgG takes about 8 days to be detected, IgM even later. And IgG specially is not a very specific parameter. The serology tests are inexpensive, relatively rapid, but it is not practical to use it everywhere, as 8 day is long enough time to transmit thousands/ millions ( can be useful in prognosticate the confirmed cases, that way the the confirmed cases won`t need kit tests, and a lot of kits will be availbale for screening)
I urge everyone to read Medscape or Pubmed articles on Corona, not these random sites.
Youtube is even more dangerous. Med cram is possibly the only credible channel, but it`s primarily for doctors.
Unless each and every one passes PCR tests, we cannot assume, we have completely got rid of this Panademic..
As well, there should still be restriction on country borders, till its wiped from rest of world..
What do you think about same ?
blr_p
Level N
You are aware we have over a 100k people in quarantine right. It was at 80k on Mar 18. It's a lot higher right now. That potential infected, of whatever symptoms out of circulation.
Model only takes into consideration symptomatic as there isn't any data on asymptomatic. It is best case as a result.
That is almost 80k per week. It can be ramped up .
What i've understood is, if you don't want lck down or have a mixed approach then rapid testing is required. Faster than the infection rate.
If you can do lock downs then the testing rate does not need to be as high. Just the symptomatic. If people don't develop symptoms in 14 days then they will be let out. I don't know how you solve that one.
True but India has not resorted to any.
I thought serology was PCR type with the dodgy reliability
IgM are antigen based and more reliable.
We will likely used a mix of two.
I've come to realise, quite a few videos are by health workers for other health workers.
General public is not the intended audience and will not be exposed to the kind of risks these workers face.
A lot of the recommends are complete overkill and not necessary for the lay person doing daily chores outdoors.
Watching these videos can be fear inducing as a result until you spot what i sad.
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End of an outbreak is defined as two incubation periods, 14 x 2 = 28 days without a new case
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Almost every credible studies till now are based on symptomatic and PCR ( not serology) test reports.
We are still collecting about 50-60 samples/ doctor/ day, and that's 7 of us ( nurses are not doing it because of faulty procedures and false negatives) only around Madrid.
India's sample collection rate is not even 1 percent!!
And a BIG NO!! You must test everyone with confirmed/ suspected contact ( even the asymptomatics) This 14 days time is the median value.Not an absolute.
My completely personal opinion after working in one of the worst hit countries , India`s approach is a gamble.
We are still collecting about 50-60 samples/ doctor/ day, and that's 7 of us ( nurses are not doing it because of faulty procedures and false negatives) only around Madrid.
India's sample collection rate is not even 1 percent!!
And a BIG NO!! You must test everyone with confirmed/ suspected contact ( even the asymptomatics) This 14 days time is the median value.Not an absolute.
My completely personal opinion after working in one of the worst hit countries , India`s approach is a gamble.
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blr_p
Level N
Tedros said lock downs solve nothing. Have to test & treat.
So the point is to buy time for the govt to prepare. Also because they have no idea how fast & hard they will get hit so it delays things.
What is inevitable ? one way trip to stage 4 with no end in sight ? I don't think so.
Bhilwada is the model they will follow. Seal the place Wuhan style until number of new infected drops and stays low.
They were expecting these hot spots to crop up so the lock down just makes it more manageable.
Delaying so govt can prepare. Have to test faster than the infection rate. Need the tools to do that before opening the gates.
The models paint the picture that if you lock down for a specified period then the problem goes away. That remains to be shown and there is no evidence of such.
Whether the econmic hit as a result is worth it is another question to answer.
We always calculate how x amount of business was lost because so and so called some strike and shut the city down. For a day.
This has costs.
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If the lock down does solve the problem as the models predict then they deserve to blow their horn.
We don't know that as yet.
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AFAIK ( after discussion with few doctors who are actually dealing with infected patients everyday, not those giving daily interviews in television) India is playing a very very dangerous game.
There's is a list of 18-20 ailments, if a patient ( who has those ailments) dies with typical CT chest findings and negative RTPCR ,they are not mentioning Covid 19 as cause of death!!
This is a very dangerous thing to do. Italy and Spain did exactly the same thing for close to a month and they are paying the price now.
More than 30 percent symptomatic patients will be false negative as taking BAL ( broncho alveolar lavage ) is not possible.
However with symptoms and chest CT findings (which is completely different from lobar pneumonia) each and every patient should be counted and treated as positive.
There's is a list of 18-20 ailments, if a patient ( who has those ailments) dies with typical CT chest findings and negative RTPCR ,they are not mentioning Covid 19 as cause of death!!
This is a very dangerous thing to do. Italy and Spain did exactly the same thing for close to a month and they are paying the price now.
More than 30 percent symptomatic patients will be false negative as taking BAL ( broncho alveolar lavage ) is not possible.
However with symptoms and chest CT findings (which is completely different from lobar pneumonia) each and every patient should be counted and treated as positive.
South Korea reports recovered coronavirus patients testing positive again
South Korean officials on Friday reported 91 patients thought cleared of the new coronavirus had tested positive again.
www.reuters.com
nRiTeCh
Level N
Well this is the case everywhere, once a patient tests negative and given discharge, few days later he again suffers on similar symptoms and tests positive and again the cycle repeats. This is happening for few percentage of people but yet its a big thing to worry about. As once home they can infect the entire family and surrounding.
South Korea reports recovered coronavirus patients testing positive again
South Korean officials on Friday reported 91 patients thought cleared of the new coronavirus had tested positive again.
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^^ Very true. These are the false negative patients ( if concentration of virus falls below certain levels, RT-PCR will be negative) However nobody knows if these people with possible IgM antibody can infect others or not. This is a major limitation of science at present.
Even this 14 days period may not be true at all.
Even this 14 days period may not be true at all.
Your comments are legit.. We have not yet started testing, people under lockdown, If not wrong unsure how many more months this whole procedure will take..
And as well, people shall be allowed to enter/exit the country.. that too is a BIG question.
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Any sources for this definition ?
blr_p
Level N
Sources for what definition ?
End of an outbreak is defined as two incubation periods, 14 x 2 = 28 days without a new case
blr_p
Level N
Oh! that was from a report i read over two weeks back. Can't recall the source right now.
rdst_1
Level J
Is there any data being collected about how the lockdown is affecting the poor and how many will starve or die because of the lockdown. Huge announcements were made that people will be provided with 3 months ration for free, but the bitter reality is that here in our village, this month's ration has still not arrived and is not gonna come till the 20th. And even then, it will have to be bought with money and not given free as promised.
The second announcement was that all farmers will get the 2000 bucks payment they supposedly get every 4 months immediately. Truth is that many farmers have not even received last years payment and now the PM KISAN website itself is down so no one can check the status.
So, as much as I want fellow Indians to stay at home, the truth is that most of them can't because the government is not able to provide them with either food or money which would have ensured that they stay at home.
The second announcement was that all farmers will get the 2000 bucks payment they supposedly get every 4 months immediately. Truth is that many farmers have not even received last years payment and now the PM KISAN website itself is down so no one can check the status.
So, as much as I want fellow Indians to stay at home, the truth is that most of them can't because the government is not able to provide them with either food or money which would have ensured that they stay at home.