The sad reality of the situation is attacking India in reverse. First the hunger, joblessness, next the virus.
But possibly Modi tried his best with the lockdown. But now it's time to lift it in phased manner.
It's impossible to contain this virus. Are you guys getting mobile alerts of positives around you?
I'm not following the Indian news for last couple of days ( ABP Ananda, a Bengali news channel used to watch, stopped working, spoke to the NIMHANS psychiatrist in my broken Hindi, it felt soooo good.. missing India like never before)
How many health workers are infected in India? Can anybody please tell me...
My request for transfer to India got rejected. However I can go back to Praha and be off duty for rest of April.
Is there any data being collected about how the lockdown is affecting the poor and how many will starve or die because of the lockdown. Huge announcements were made that people will be provided with 3 months ration for free, but the bitter reality is that here in our village, this month's ration has still not arrived and is not gonna come till the 20th. And even then, it will have to be bought with money and not given free as promised.
The second announcement was that all farmers will get the 2000 bucks payment they supposedly get every 4 months immediately. Truth is that many farmers have not even received last years payment and now the PM KISAN website itself is down so no one can check the status.
So, as much as I want fellow Indians to stay at home, the truth is that most of them can't because the government is not able to provide them with either food or money which would have ensured that they stay at home.
2000 INR for 4 months ( ie 500 per month)!! How can a single person ( let alone a family) survive with this? Heard Mamata Banerjee is giving free ration for 3 months, isn't it true?
How on earth a human can survive with no money, no food for 5 weeks?
Spain has started lifting the lockdown. This was a calculated risk. This is the difference between an European country and India.
Spanish government took opinion of thousands of doctors the day suicides started to rise. They gave adequate importance to the rising anxiety, depression etc.
Though daily deaths from the virus are slightly less for 4/5 days but it's still alarming.
But this was the best decision for the people. Opposition is going crazy ( politicians after all) but this is how a civilized country works.
Spain will possibly see a very small secondary wave or two in near future, but they will be able to handle it.
But Indian scenario looks different, they are struggling with 10000 cases, that too under a harsh lockdown and very poor testing. Entire hospitals are shutting down for 1 or 2 cases.
God forbid, if India sees a sudden small spike ( first usually around 20-25k mark) and corporate hospitals do not step in with free/ almost free treatment, possibly all the severe cases will die. The government hospitals ( even AIIMS/ PGI) are simply not equipped. People have this perception that beyond ventilator nothing can be done.
But we used ECMO extensively and about 50 percent was saved @ La Paz.
I don't know how many doctors in India have heard of/ seen ECMO ( there are only 3 in the entire Eastern zone, possibly 1 at AIIMS)
Indian government must force the large corporate hospitals to step in. Hiding behind a nationwide lockdown possibly bought some time, but now the cases will rise exponentially, but lockdown must be withdrawn gradually at the same time.
It's beyond my understanding how did they identify hotspots only by testing a fraction of the symptomatics, very few close contacts and no random sampling!!
Another strange thing, India is the only major country which is not asking for epidemiologists from Geneva. If Modi thinks clinicians and the jokers from ICMR can save the nation, he will regret it forever.
MADRID (AP) — Spanish authorities say they trust that plans to allow the return of nonessential workers to factories and construction sites next week won’t cause a significant resurgence in coronavirus infections, as some scientists have warned.
apnews.com
Apparently the Spanish govt did not consult with scientists over this partial lifting. Only manufacturing and construction workers go to work, everybody else is pretty much as is.
Spain has been locked down at least two weeks longer than us and already lost a million jobs. Economy, economy, economy.
Can we get the manufacturing sector back to work ? employers have to provide masks and social distancing
MADRID (AP) — Spanish authorities say they trust that plans to allow the return of nonessential workers to factories and construction sites next week won’t cause a significant resurgence in coronavirus infections, as some scientists have warned.
apnews.com
Apparently the Spanish govt did not consult with scientists over this partial lifting. Only manufacturing and construction workers go to work, everybody else is pretty much as is.
Spain has been locked down at least two weeks longer than us and already lost a million jobs. Economy, economy, economy.
Can we get the manufacturing sector back to work ? employers have to provide masks and social distancing
Spanish government is discussing with 15 epidemiologists continuosly in Madrid alone, even few buses are running. We are issuing green passes for last 5 days.
They have a very transparent policy of how to lift the lockdown gradually.
Other than coffee shops and restaurants, more than 60 percent stores in this area are open. Even a library here opened today. It's 10:50 here, lockdown was relaxed from yesterday, I don't know how can you assess the situation online!!
You possibly have no clue about the economic difference between an average middle class Spanish and Indian.
They have a very transparent and detailed protocol for everything.
And please stop quoting from random articles. Watch some Spanish TV channel ( hope you understand little bit of their language, given your expert opinions) if possible to see what's going on here.
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Ojalá pudiera revelar mi identidad, para que puedas ver mi trabajo en Google Académico.
And please stop quoting from random articles. Watch some Spanish TV channel ( hope you understand little bit of their language, given your expert opinions) if possible to see what's going on here.
You don't have to believe in anything I said. Wait for 8 weeks, things will become self explanatory.
Meanwhile, read some textbooks. Learn about the basics of epidemiological studies, at least learn some basics of probability theory.
Took me 10 years ( MD int.medicine 3 yrs MD community medicine 3 yrs MPH and PhD combined 4 years) to understand the absolute basics.
Not everyone can become experts like Mr.Modi and his gang of goons overnight.
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My replies to blr_p are going to be abrasive from now on. As he is one of those people for whom our politicians / media can get away with anything. And I am more than qualified enough to question our PM`s stupid decisions.
Will start with this Bhilwara hype (and the lies behind it)
Population that district- about 24 Lakhs
Tests done- about 3200 (after 25000 screening, what exactly were they screening for, when according to Modi and his sidekicks 80% infected are asymptomatic)
First case- 18th March, today is 14th April, not even 30 days yet!! The incubation period IS NOT KNOWN YET, there are documented symptomatic cases with incubation period of 27 DAYS
WE HAVE NOT EVEN TESTED A SINGLE INFECTED PERSON FOR IgG / IgM levels, YET SCREAMING THAT IT WAS A REVOLUTIONARY IDEA EVEN BEFORE MEDIAN INCUBATION PERIOD!!!!!!!! ( Basically the same process done with every epidemic everywhere. Not a single new thing was done there)
By applying similar logic we can say Burundi showed the world how to stop epidemic of Ebola!!
Not a single doctor in Indian media questioned the government about the false hype around the Bhilwara Model. Why? Because NONE OF THEM ARE EPIDEMIOLOGIST. Their knowledge of epidemiology is limited to 3rd year MBBS PSM book.
But where are the PSM guys? No media is inviting them, because they will strip the government naked in front of national television.
Modi/ most other political leaders are not afraid of the virus, he is afraid of the epidemiologists. That`s why CTVS surgeons have become the leaders of public health in India!! Bravo!!
@red dragon - I know you are very busy at the moment, but can you try and connect with NDTV and the likes. Although I am not entirely sure, I think they might be a bit more open to hearing about the realities.
I think most people want to focus at the positives, but focusing at the positives is one thing and following an 'ostrich policy' is another. I guess most people find it difficult to live in constant fear. After a point, we will just have to gonna live with the consequences of whatever decisions we take. Personally, I can even live in lockdown for a year or even more. I shouldn't have to if the government can take the necessary steps but I feel that our people are not disciplined enough. This disease shouldn't have been an issue if foreign travelers would have quarantined themselves or if the government would have acted proactively. However, this is true for every country out there today except very few examples. Those countries will still probably get away with it due to low population densities, but unfortunately India can't.
The latest idea being implemented by all states seems to be dividing up the states into 3 categories -
a) Red zones which will be under complete curfew.
b) Orange zones which will be under lockdown as present and
c) Yellow zones where people will have a little more freedom of movement.
As usual, not enough information is available at the moment on the exact specifications which differentiate these zones. Then there also is the problem of percolation of information. We are still seeing cases of farmers getting beaten up by the local policeman despite the govt allowing farm activities to resume. Lastly the major issue is of people's awareness and discipline. I have local laborers still working at my farm and no matter how much I tell them to maintain social distancing, they don't take it seriously enough. All I can do is maintain my distance from them and keep them away from my house. Currently I am not too worried about them, but their husbands have started travelling to other homes even within the lockdown to get some work and I might have to let go of them soon.
No buddy, not me. I am facing the Spanish media every alternate evening ( and giving them at least something to laugh about with my perfect Spanish and chronic insomniac, unshaved, super long haired charm)
But some really good doctors specialised in public health located in India ( mostly retired professors) are teaming up. But IMA is giving them outright warnings. The political games in India is real dirty and mostly works against public interest.
I was in contact with chief editor of JIMA till 2018, but my field of work changed so much that it became completely irrelevant for India over the years.
Hoping to get released by coming Sunday from La Paz. Trying to find some proper papers on Bhilwara, so many useless, mindless reports. Nobody even bothered to publish a proper map which can be used as a epidemiological tool ( the first step of containment)
Can try with Google maps, but that won't have very vital information like index case, first contacts, last case etc. plus police outposts, rationing depots etc. Lot of work, would love to do it, if the information was in public domain.
Our PM and his team has messed up big time but they won't accept it. We don't have testing kits yet. 25000 testing done yesterday. In a country with 1.3 billion population we are testing only 25000 persons daily and we assume that everything is fine. We should test frontline workers. We should test general store owners. But we cannot as we don't have kits.
If you go through the credentials of the top people running ICMR and search for their contribution to medial research, it will be obvious that they spend more time with politics rather than academics. What else can you except from a bunch of cartoons running ICMR? And they are in forefront of India`s fight against a virus. For 2 weeks they are screaming that 1lakh test/day is possible. Yet India is not testing even 50 thousands per day.
Lockdown started when case load was less than 1000, now with the harshest lockdown in the world for 3 weeks-patient load > 10,000 ( that without testing asymptomatics / <0.000001 percent of population) And Modi was boasting about this earlier!!
Bhakts are screaming about 1 million in quarantine ( Only Modi ji knows how is this relevent without tests, what were the criteria for quarantine, only exposure, symptoms? ) Insanity and chaos.
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Ask questions directly to ICMR. They asked about relevance of WHO. We collected more samples in 4 countries in Europe than the entire India with the dirt cheap manpower compared to Europe.
Sure we lost more lives till now, but things may turn around in 4 weeks time.
I am not seeing any end to lockdown with current trend of Indian government. They will keep extending it. And then one day riots will start. No one can contain hungry public. We have seen the demo in Anand Vihar gathering and now today at bandra gathering. PM was boasting about 1 lakh beds for corona patients in the country. Cots in a big hall is not called preparation. These are not wartime injured persons whom you can keep 3 feet away from each other. No machines or oxygen ssupply. You will kill your medical team in those halls. What are they doing is beyond any hope.
You don't have to believe in anything I said. Wait for 8 weeks, things will become self explanatory.
Meanwhile, read some textbooks. Learn about the basics of epidemiological studies, at least learn some basics of probability theory.
Took me 10 years ( MD int.medicine 3 yrs MD community medicine 3 yrs MPH and PhD combined 4 years) to understand the absolute basics.
Not everyone can become experts like Mr.Modi and his gang of goons overnight.
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My replies to blr_p are going to be abrasive from now on. As he is one of those people for whom our politicians / media can get away with anything. And I am more than qualified enough to question our PM`s stupid decisions.
Will start with this Bhilwara hype (and the lies behind it)
Population that district- about 24 Lakhs
Tests done- about 3200 (after 25000 screening, what exactly were they screening for, when according to Modi and his sidekicks 80% infected are asymptomatic)
First case- 18th March, today is 14th April, not even 30 days yet!! The incubation period IS NOT KNOWN YET, there are documented symptomatic cases with incubation period of 27 DAYS
WE HAVE NOT EVEN TESTED A SINGLE INFECTED PERSON FOR IgG / IgM levels, YET SCREAMING THAT IT WAS A REVOLUTIONARY IDEA EVEN BEFORE MEDIAN INCUBATION PERIOD!!!!!!!! ( Basically the same process done with every epidemic everywhere. Not a single new thing was done there)
By applying similar logic we can say Burundi showed the world how to stop epidemic of Ebola!!
Not a single doctor in Indian media questioned the government about the false hype around the Bhilwara Model. Why? Because NONE OF THEM ARE EPIDEMIOLOGIST. Their knowledge of epidemiology is limited to 3rd year MBBS PSM book.
But where are the PSM guys? No media is inviting them, because they will strip the government naked in front of national television.
Modi/ most other political leaders are not afraid of the virus, he is afraid of the epidemiologists. That`s why CTVS surgeons have become the leaders of public health in India!! Bravo!!
I think most people want to focus at the positives, but focusing at the positives is one thing and following an 'ostrich policy' is another. I guess most people find it difficult to live in constant fear. After a point, we will just have to gonna live with the consequences of whatever decisions we take. Personally, I can even live in lockdown for a year or even more. I shouldn't have to if the government can take the necessary steps but I feel that our people are not disciplined enough. This disease shouldn't have been an issue if foreign travelers would have quarantined themselves or if the government would have acted proactively. However, this is true for every country out there today except very few examples. Those countries will still probably get away with it due to low population densities, but unfortunately India can't.
Govt was proactive. Compared to Europe i would say exemplary. One million in quarantine across the entire country is no easy feat. Those that develop symptoms will be tested and treated if necessary. They test negative twice and do their two weeks then they are in the clear.
It comes to the same thing as people being tested in other countries. Those people cannot go out either or until they recover.
The latest idea being implemented by all states seems to be dividing up the states into 3 categories -
a) Red zones which will be under complete curfew.
b) Orange zones which will be under lockdown as present and
c) Yellow zones where people will have a little more freedom of movement.
As usual, not enough information is available at the moment on the exact specifications which differentiate these zones. Then there also is the problem of percolation of information. We are still seeing cases of farmers getting beaten up by the local policeman despite the govt allowing farm activities to resume. Lastly the major issue is of people's awareness and discipline. I have local laborers still working at my farm and no matter how much I tell them to maintain social distancing, they don't take it seriously enough. All I can do is maintain my distance from them and keep them away from my house. Currently I am not too worried about them, but their husbands have started travelling to other homes even within the lockdown to get some work and I might have to let go of them soon.
A hotspot is defined as 6 infections in a cluster. That many show up in any housing society the entire place is getting into the red.
Get some surgical masks for your workers. If this rule becomes mandatory in more places it will stem outbreaks a great deal. It already is mandatory in Bombay.
I am not seeing any end to lockdown with current trend of Indian government. They will keep extending it. And then one day riots will start. No one can contain hungry public. We have seen the demo in Anand Vihar gathering and now today at bandra gathering. PM was boasting about 1 lakh beds for corona patients in the country. Cots in a big hall is not called preparation. These are not wartime injured persons whom you can keep 3 feet away from each other. No machines or oxygen ssupply. You will kill your medical team in those halls. What are they doing is beyond any hope.
If they don't end the lock down then how are we going to live ? what products will we use and what will we eat
How will essentials be transported. Think about it. Can't keep extending.
The purpose of the lock down is to allow the govt to build up resources to fight this battle. The ICMR said they have plenty of beds, This is a very positive announcement.
If they say we have 100k beds then that is the worst case scenario. Who says we will need as many, maybe only a fraction.
Lock down alone is not a panacea.
The stimulus package is for three months. That is a good tell.
They expect to largely controlled this by end June.
@blr_p - Your analysis is based on the assumption that people are following the lockdown properly. They are doing that in big cities as they have no choice but to stay inside their homes. However, like I pointed out above, in small towns and villages, people are not practising social distancing. They are still going to each other's houses and queueing up in markets without wearing masks or maintaining safe distances. When you try and explain to them why social distancing is important, they shrug it off by saying that there are no cases in the neighbourhood. This is why extensive testing was needed otherwise a lockdown is just a half measure. Extensive testing alongside a 1 month lockdown would have ensured that our waves be smaller. I do agree with the fact that we just can't test everybody in a country like India and I actually appreciate this new strategy but I am always apprenhensive about the implementation as the track record of this govt is atrociusly poor in that regard. I was told yesterday by my maid that people are queueing up like mad outside PDS depots as this months ration was delayed. This is leading to those depots being sealed. Please tell me why couldn't the govt have ensured home delivery of that ration as it is being done in cities. In Chandigarh, even vegetables are being delivered directly to homes in govt buses. You need to provide the people with food and money at their homes if they want the poor or lower middle class to stay at home, but just like before, our govt is failing at implementing a well thought out plan and making knee-jerk reactions instead.
Proactive government! My ass!!
1. What were the criteria for quarantine?
2. What is the duration of quarantine?
3. How did it take more than 3 weeks to even consider pooling samples from asymptomatics?
With less than 1000 reported case at beginning of lockdown, half the nation would be covered by now with pooled samples.
4. Why ICMR is testing bats now? Everyone knows nipah came from bats. Did this knowledge help anyone in India to curb nipah in dialysis patients?
5. What is the plan forward? a) target test rate per million ( if you cannot find it after 4 weeks, likely you don't know how to calculate it)
b) When does the antibody testing start? If IgM is positive, what's the inference?
6. How about pressurising the director of the WHO's south east division? AFAIK she is not even attending online meetings, not replying to emails.
Let me bring one thing forward, that lady is a MBBS doctor, no post grad training, basically nothing after MBBS, not even 5 papers. However she got elected for the second time ( it may not appear in Indian newspapers, but we all know how) Sure, Geneva is least bothered about SE Asia, it has the least qualified persons.
But when the entire world is attacking DG for irresponsible remarks, what about asking a few questions to the top most WHO personnel posted in the area where it all started?
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Trump is not going to donate a single penny to WHO anymore.
I completely support his decision. Enough money has been wasted on absolutely incompetent people for years. We needed this jolt.
Now the dirty games will start.
The whole world is now going to see the hidden side of CDC, documents will be leaked from everywhere. China will pay for everything. They may very well increase our consultancy fees. As our bigwigs will now start blackmailing both the countries, as we have plenty of dirty secrets of both. Beautiful time to be alive.
A one-off lockdown won't halt the novel coronavirus and repeated periods of social distancing may be required into 2022 to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed, Harvard scientists who modeled the pandemic's trajectory said Tuesday.
apnews.com
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