Lockdown gets over OR get extended ? What do you think ?

[red dragon]

That's some great Google skill! How did they know about this? At least some journalists are talking to right people.
Kissler wasn't supposed to reveal it before August!!

 

[blr_p]

Repeated Bouts Of Social Distancing May Be Needed Until 2022: Harvard Study

A one-off lockdown won't halt the novel coronavirus and repeated periods of social distancing may be required into 2022 to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed, Harvard scientists who modeled the pandemic's trajectory said Tuesday.

www.ndtv.com

This seems related to the point in discussion.

Seen it. it's again a mathematical model. That is the major issue here. Everything is a damn model. So it can happen, it may not.

The problem i have with that study is how to implement it.

Intermittent socio-spatial distancing means what exactly in an Indian context ?

We relax lock down, then we re-instate it, relax and so on. How are we supposed to do that.

If otoh it means, for an extended period that no social gatherings will be allowed beyond a certain size then that is feasible. If we get buy in from all religious denominations.

There's another guy in HK, Cowling i think his name is that's been saying there will be a second wave too.

You want to manage things so the second wave if at all there is one is much smaller.

This way there can be any number of waves so long as each is smaller than the previous.

What is more likely to happen is hotspots will appear around the country from time to time. These will have to be sealed off to prevent a second wave of similar intensity emerging. If caught in time the second wave and further will be smaller.

That's not the only way though. Automated contact tracing if mandated could help. A testing regime that is faster than the rate of infection is another but this option won't be implemented until we have lots of test kits available.

Which is the best way to proceed

Post automatically merged: Apr 18, 2020

@blr_p - Your analysis is based on the assumption that people are following the lockdown properly. They are doing that in big cities as they have no choice but to stay inside their homes. However, like I pointed out above, in small towns and villages, people are not practising social distancing. They are still going to each other's houses and queueing up in markets without wearing masks or maintaining safe distances. When you try and explain to them why social distancing is important, they shrug it off by saying that there are no cases in the neighbourhood.

Part of the reason for the lock down was to teach people social distancing and to change their behaviour. What you described is a worldwide problem. Not taking it seriously. In time where if they did then lock downs become unnecessary. Scandinavian countries for example never had national lock downs.

This is why extensive testing was needed otherwise a lockdown is just a half measure. Extensive testing alongside a 1 month lockdown would have ensured that our waves be smaller. I do agree with the fact that we just can't test everybody in a country like India and I actually appreciate this new strategy but I am always apprenhensive about the implementation as the track record of this govt is atrociusly poor in that regard.

What track record are you referring to here ?

If you accept we cannot test everybody then how many should we test ?

If you're aware of sampling theory, a sample size that is sufficiently large of a given population is good enough. A few thousands only will get you within 5%. Doing tens of thousands does not improve accuracy more. This is how polling works. That would be the ICMR's rationale for not going with extensive testing.

Where they do need more tests is in outbreak areas. So the rapid tests are going to be used there. Just to get a feel of the size of the outbreak.

I was told yesterday by my maid that people are queueing up like mad outside PDS depots as this months ration was delayed. This is leading to those depots being sealed. Please tell me why couldn't the govt have ensured home delivery of that ration as it is being done in cities. In Chandigarh, even vegetables are being delivered directly to homes in govt buses. You need to provide the people with food and money at their homes if they want the poor or lower middle class to stay at home, but just like before, our govt is failing at implementing a well thought out plan and making knee-jerk reactions instead.

They did tell them they would get rations & allowance. But how many listened ? the uncertainty meant many decided they would be better back in their village. The idea of snapping links was to keep people in place. Now they migrated else where and cannot return.

Urban areas are the source for the major outbreaks.. They have relaxed restrictions in the rural areas so i suppose this is why they are taking it easy. Those things you were pointing out over a week ago are being addressed. Harvests will continue. Whether you find the skilled labour to do it is another question.

So the problems you mention with PDS here will be sorted out in a week's time too

 

[chiron]

Canadian govt. is saying they expect it to be at least till next year at the earliest before they expect things to go back to normal in terms of social distancing. Vaccine seems like the only way out.

 

[blr_p]

Proactive government! My ass!!
1. What were the criteria for quarantine?
2. What is the duration of quarantine?
3. How did it take more than 3 weeks to even consider pooling samples from asymptomatics?
With less than 1000 reported case at beginning of lockdown, half the nation would be covered by now with pooled samples.
4. Why ICMR is testing bats now? Everyone knows nipah came from bats. Did this knowledge help anyone in India to curb nipah in dialysis patients?
5. What is the plan forward? a) target test rate per million ( if you cannot find it after 4 weeks, likely you don't know how to calculate it)
b) When does the antibody testing start? If IgM is positive, what's the inference?
6. How about pressurising the director of the WHO's south east division? AFAIK she is not even attending online meetings, not replying to emails.
Let me bring one thing forward, that lady is a MBBS doctor, no post grad training, basically nothing after MBBS, not even 5 papers. However she got elected for the second time ( it may not appear in Indian newspapers, but we all know how) Sure, Geneva is least bothered about SE Asia, it has the least qualified persons.
But when the entire world is attacking DG for irresponsible remarks, what about asking a few questions to the top most WHO personnel posted in the area where it all started?

Yeah proactive. It's not an easy decision to lock down the entire country. We did it and have extended it without any military support. Definitely full marks to the govt for that.

Anybody that does nor get this is ignoring reality. It was the western states that were reactive and not proactive. Their results are proof positive of their lack of seriousness. Poor management all around.

1. Either travel to an affected country or primary contact

2. Std is 14 days. Kerela has 28 days

3. What is the big deal here. Taking 3 weeks for a 3 month old disease isn't a problem. They're doing it now anyway. In case any one wonders what he means by pool testing its a way of testing 5 in a go for sentinel testing in areas with low positivity.

4. eh ?

5.
a) from what i can tell is positivity rates go up we test more otherwise not. From a low 4% we can tell that the infection rate is quite slow. Test kits are hard to come by atm and there are plenty of stories of duff ones being sold.
b) ICMR has given the green light for states to go ahead with these antibody test. It starts when they get them. Just to tell what the extent of the spread is. They find an outbreak they barricade the area. Simple. Do more tests, contact trace, etc etc.

6. I have no idea what purpose this serves. You said earlier we have not contacted the WHO. What changes if we do ? explain.

Trump is not going to donate a single penny to WHO anymore.
I completely support his decision. Enough money has been wasted on absolutely incompetent people for years. We needed this jolt.

I don't know how things will change as a result of Trump's decision. The WHO failed with Ebola in the same way. Waited 3 months before declaring Sierra Leone an infected country. 11,000 Africans died that did not need to.

States consider such a declaration a hostile act because it in effect is telling the whole world to blacklist them. Only when it can't be covered up does the warning go out and its too late at that time. Sierra Leone & China had exactly the same outcome. Fortunately Ebola could not spread beyond Africa.

I don't see how the next pandemic can be stopped in time with the present setup. Countries would have to be proactive and take their own decisions like Taiwan did. At which point what the WHO says is irrelevant. It isn't fulfilling its role.

Now the dirty games will start.
The whole world is now going to see the hidden side of CDC, documents will be leaked from everywhere. China will pay for everything. They may very well increase our consultancy fees. As our bigwigs will now start blackmailing both the countries, as we have plenty of dirty secrets of both. Beautiful time to be alive.

Heh, if they do that it won't just be the US cutting funding any more.