The Indian Politics Thread

http://firstbiz.firstpost.com/econo...-full-years-total-in-just-2-months-89324.html

When Narendra Modi talked about the “empty coffers” left behind by the UPA, P Chidambaram, who was in charge of the coffers till 26 May 2014, claimed this was nonsense. He claimed he was leaving Rs 26,510 crore in cash for the Modi administration in contrast to the negative cash balance left behind by the previous NDA government in 2004.

Chidambaram said: “The opening cash balance on June 1, 2004, just after NDA government demitted office, was negative Rs 2,730 crore. On the other hand, the opening cash balance on June 1, 2014, just after UPA demitted office, was Rs 26,510 crore. We do not subscribe to the empty coffers theory but for the sake of argument, we would like to ask who left behind an empty treasury.”

Perhaps, the former finance minister was being too clever by half. He, of all people, should know the difference between leaving a positive “cash balance” and huge unpaid liabilities which will have to be paid by the next government.

A “cash balance” makes no sense if you have unpaid bills. Its like keeping money in the bank while accumulating huge debts on your credit card. The cash balance is thus notional and fictitious.

The government today (30 June) released the fiscal deficit figures for April-May 2014 which show the real state of the exchequer. According to a Reuters report, in just the first two months of this year – April and May, when the UPA was holding the fort – the fiscal deficit soared to 45.6 percent of the whole year’s budgeted figure.

In April and May, the fiscal deficit touched Rs 2,40,837 crore as against Chidambaram’s budgeted figure of Rs 5,28,631 crore budgeted in his interim budget for the whole of 2014-15.

This means his successor Arun Jaitley, who has a drought and an Iraq oil situation to contend with, will have to get by with just Rs 2,87,794 of deficit leeway for the remaining 10 months of this year. If this is not empty coffers, one wonders what is.

If we deduct Chidambaram’s positive “cash balance” of Rs 26,510 crore as on 1 June from the April-May fiscal deficit figure, we would still end up with a fiscal deficit net of the cash balance at Rs 2,14,327 crore. This would be a high 40.5 percent of the whole year’s fiscal deficit target. Last year, the fiscal deficit for the same period was 33.3 percent.

If you spend 40 percent of your year’s deficit target in two months, what are you essentially leaving for the next government beyond empty coffers?

And remember, this fiscal deficit may also be fictitious, since Chidambaram is known to have cooked his books.

According to the data released today (30 June), net tax receipts were at Rs 28,651 crore while expenditures were in the region of Rs 2,80,000 crore – that is, net tax receipts were just a tenth of total government expenses. Even assuming in an election year the government had to spend more than usual in April and May, and tax refunds are high, this is a disastrous gap.

That’s not all. The eight core sector industries reported just 2.3 percent growth in May, against 4.2 percent in 2013. Core industries include coal, power, crude oil, fertiliser, natural gas, steel, cement, and petroleum refining, and they account for 38 percent of the Index of Industrial Production. This suggests that industrial production may continue to head downhill in the initial months of the NDA government as well.

Chidambaran not only leaves “empty coffers” but a decelerating revenue base and a gutted economy.

This level of fiscal deficit means Jaitley has very little leeway in raising expenses for pet schemes without upsetting the rating agencies. He will have to drastically up the revenues from asset sales to increase capital spending and revive the economy.
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Party Monger said:
Tax refunds. LOL find out how much Direct tax accounts for as a percentage of tax collection. Then find the percentage of refunds and then divide it for a quarter.
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Direct taxes account for roughly 60% of tax revenues. 2/3rd of the Direct taxes comes from corporates and most of the rest of the 1/3rd of it from Individual tax payers.

The low percentage of Individual taxes is probably because only less than 3% of the people pay income taxes in India and in that too only very few pay their dues sincerely without finding all means to evade. The majority of the rest are content wearing their Anna Hazare and AAP merchandise and talking about how congress and BJP leaders have stashed black money in Swiss bank accounts and how their favourite self proclaimed honest leaders whose only way of governance is chaos and anarchy are going to magically transform India by getting that pocket change back to the country while never bothering to fill all the holes for black money within the country because after all their fan base would disappear in a jiffy if it ever comes to them.
 
Lord Nemesis said:
^^ Unlikely that the sole reason is break down. If its due to technical issues, it would be widely publicized. Low production and technical issues may be only part of the reason. I can believe that such deliberate actions can be taken even if its stupid.
Here in Hyderabad also, there is power shortage. Power cuts are in the range of 3~4 hours officially in all areas. However in 4~5 regions that predominantly have people from Andhra regions, the power cuts ranged up to 9 hours. Apart from the official cuts during the day, 4~5 hours is being cut during night (between 12AM to 6AM).

I didn't think that it there was such a pattern and I am not sure that the local govt is even involved, but it did exist and somebody claiming to be from the local electricity dept was even bragging about it. Unless its massive a coincidence or there is some inexplicable reason for it, I have no other means to explain it except that its deliberate.
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It is a bit more subtle.

Elec-tricks and the art of political meddling | Jul 07 | Deccan Herald
Elec-tricks and the art of political meddling
John Kemp, Jul 7, 2014 :
For decades, India’s power engineers had a dream: “One Nation. One Grid. One Frequency.” At the start of this year, that vision was realised. India finally has a nationwide power system stretching from Tamil Nadu in the south to Kashmir in the north, Gujarat in the west to Nagaland in the east.

On December 31, India commissioned the last link, a high-voltage transmission line between Raichur and Solapur, connecting the southern regional grid to the four other grids serving the north, east, west and northeast, which had been successively integrated since 1991.

The whole of India’s electricity system was synchronised and started to function as one giant machine. Unification is a powerful symbol of national identity and modernisation as well as enabling the system to operate more efficiently.Britain’s seven regional networks were first synchronised as long ago as 1937 in an unauthorised night-time experiment by electrical controllers and officially integrated in the winter of 1938.

Until then, “having too many power stations connected together in one big network had been thought too risky”, according to the Central Electricity Generating Board. But the national grid kept Britain’s armaments factories running during the heavy air raids of World War II.

The United States integrated almost its entire network into two giant interconnections that link into neighbouring parts of Canada and Mexico: the Eastern Interconnection in 1962 and the Western Interconnection in 1967.

China, too, is rapidly linking its regional grid operations into a nationwide super-grid. But India’s belated arrival in the super grid club cannot disguise the underdevelopment of the country’s electricity system.

In 2012-13, India’s power system was able to supply a peak of just 124,000 megawatts for a country of more than 1.2 billion people. By contrast, Britain’s power stations generated a maximum of 55,000 megawatts for a country of 60 million.

India has just over 1 million km (625,000 miles) of high-voltage transmission circuits and 185 substations. Generation is dominated by old and inefficient coal-fired units that belch soot, toxic pollutants and carbon dioxide. Coal accounts for 60 per cent of India’s installed generation capacity with some hydro (16 per cent) and renewables (13 per cent) as well as smaller amounts of natural gas and nuclear. Power cuts are frequent as demand often outstrips supply. More than 10 per cent of electricity demand routinely goes unmet at peak periods, according to India’s Central Electricity Authority (“Annual Report 2012-13”).

Power failures

India’s grid has proved worryingly unmanageable and unstable — even before the synchronisation of a fifth region with hundreds of millions more customers.In July and August 2012, India's two worst blackouts in history cascaded across the north and the east, cutting electricity to states and territories home to more than half of the country's population.

Ironically, the only region spared was the southern one because it was not synchronised with the rest of the grid. The lack of direct connection served as a firebreak as blackouts rippled across the network, the danger foreseen by Britain’s grid engineers in the 1920s and 1930s.

Blackouts occurred because during the intense summer heat, which stretched the country’s generation and transmission resources to the limit, many of India’s state electricity boards ignored instructions to reduce power deliveries to their customers. A cascading failure resulted.

But it is not just too much consumption that can destabilise the grid. Cascading power failures are not unique to India. The United States, Canada, Brazil and Indonesia have suffered partial grid collapses. But the frequency with which India’s grid has lost control is a cause of concern.

Power politics

The fundamental problem in India’s electricity industry is political. The industry is fragmented between a relatively weak Central Electricity Authority and Power Grid of India, which manage the network, and strong state electricity boards that answer to local politicians. The boards control regional distribution and generation.

Prices have been strictly controlled, and in many areas cheap electricity and the promise of connection have been used as a political tool. Subsidisation, especially for farmers, and non-payment of electricity bills are endemic.

The result is that Indians pay too little for electricity. Those who have access often use it wastefully while millions more have no access at all.

There are not enough revenues to support the massive building programme needed to connect all of India’s villages, build new transmission lines and construct extra power plants.

India needs hundreds of new power plants (including wind farms and solar power stations) coupled with investment in more transmission capacity, significant improvements in grid stability control, and a massive rural electrification programme comparable to the one that brought power to rural America in the 1930s and 1940s.

Such an enormous investment programme will be forthcoming only if prices are raised high enough to cover the cost of generation and transmission and provide investors with a realistic rate of return.

There will still need to be an element of subsidisation (either from customer bills or taxation) to cover the cost of linking villages to the network. But once customers are connected, they should pay the full cost of transmission and generation.

Reform prospects
There have been price increases in recent years. The average power tariff in Maharashtra has been raised to around 15 U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour, which is comparable to much of the United States. But in much of India the price is less than half this level. Customers in populous but power-short Uttar Pradesh and Bihar pay just 8 cents per kilowatt-hour (“An analysis of power tariffs across India”, February 2013).

The electricity system needs more centralisation. It is too easy for state electricity boards to obstruct realistic pricing and grid management. The synchronisation of regional grids must be accompanied by more integration of electricity suppliers.Gujarat, the state formerly run by new Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has been touted for its efficient and commercially run electricity industry, which featured in the recent national election campaign. Since 2003, power thefts have been slashed. The state separated agricultural and residential power systems. Rural homes pay higher bills but get more reliable power supply.

Gujarat’s well-run electricity system could be a model for the country. But first, India needs to sweep away the entrenched interests in the state electricity boards and shift to a full cost-recovery model.

(The author is a Reuters market analyst)
 
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Why The BJP Government Looks Like UPA-3

GST/VAT
  • Then: BJP states opposed GST on issues like revenue-sharing on petroleum and liquor; ditto for VAT
  • Now: Has set a fresh, urgent deadline for GST implementation. Also supporting VAT now.

Black money
  • Then: Clamoured for making public the list of people who had stashed money in Swiss banks
  • Now: Says there is no such list of people with Swiss bank accounts. To look for black money within India now.

Opening up Insurance
  • Then: Even as late as August 2013, the BJP opposed further opening up of insurance
  • Now: Has approved increase in FDI in insurance from 26% to 49%

Aadhaar
  • Then: Opposed and said it was a futile exercise. Said it should be merged with NPR.
  • Now: Has allowed Aadhaar to continue, is giving it more funds. Will link it to new services.

Henderson Brooks Report
  • Then: Rajya Sabha LoP Arun Jaitley made a strong pitch for declassifiying the report on the 1962 India-China war
  • Now: Defence minister Jaitley says the report’s release or disclosure would not be in national interest

Diesel Subsidy
  • Then: Opposed the monthly increase in diesel prices on the grounds that it will impact Railways, farmers
  • Now: Has continued the policy set by the UPA government

Nuclear Liability Bill
  • Then: Was instrumental in pushing a very high liability for N-suppliers, which nixed all progress in N-projects
  • Now: Liability ‘cap’ expected to see renegotiations during Modi’s US visit in Sept. N-suppliers want a lower cap.

FDI in Multi-Brand Retail
  • Then: Strongly opposed it and said that when in power, they will reverse policy
  • Now: Quiet on policy reversal though asserting its opposition. Has further opened up single brand retail
source: http://www.outlookindia.com/article/Goody-Goody-Days/291519
 
avi said:
Why The BJP Government Looks Like UPA-3

GST/VAT
  • Then: BJP states opposed GST on issues like revenue-sharing on petroleum and liquor; ditto for VAT
  • Now: Has set a fresh, urgent deadline for GST implementation. Also supporting VAT now.

Black money
  • Then: Clamoured for making public the list of people who had stashed money in Swiss banks
  • Now: Says there is no such list of people with Swiss bank accounts. To look for black money within India now.

Opening up Insurance
  • Then: Even as late as August 2013, the BJP opposed further opening up of insurance
  • Now: Has approved increase in FDI in insurance from 26% to 49%

Aadhaar
  • Then: Opposed and said it was a futile exercise. Said it should be merged with NPR.
  • Now: Has allowed Aadhaar to continue, is giving it more funds. Will link it to new services.

Henderson Brooks Report
  • Then: Rajya Sabha LoP Arun Jaitley made a strong pitch for declassifiying the report on the 1962 India-China war
  • Now: Defence minister Jaitley says the report’s release or disclosure would not be in national interest

Diesel Subsidy
  • Then: Opposed the monthly increase in diesel prices on the grounds that it will impact Railways, farmers
  • Now: Has continued the policy set by the UPA government

Nuclear Liability Bill
  • Then: Was instrumental in pushing a very high liability for N-suppliers, which nixed all progress in N-projects
  • Now: Liability ‘cap’ expected to see renegotiations during Modi’s US visit in Sept. N-suppliers want a lower cap.

FDI in Multi-Brand Retail
  • Then: Strongly opposed it and said that when in power, they will reverse policy
  • Now: Quiet on policy reversal though asserting its opposition. Has further opened up single brand retail
source: http://www.outlookindia.com/article/Goody-Goody-Days/291519
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Poor Bhakts are having such a hard time defending their Führer's u-turns. Its almost funny.

Hell even prominent BJP blabber mouths on twitter started the #IndiaWithIsrael tag and the next day India voted against Israel in UN. Epic kick on the back side for the BJP online media thugs brigade who thought their voice matters. LOL
 
If I remember the fuhrer had a problem with the Jews. As of now aap has a problem with ze Jews.
uploadfromtaptalk1406830747212.jpg

Even more funny events off late were the opposition demanding a discussion on Gaza. As if both the countries gave a damn about a resolution in the parliament.
 
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Superbad said:
If I remember the fuhrer had a problem with the Jews. As of now aap has a problem with ze Jews.
View attachment 43713
Even more funny events off late were the opposition demanding a discussion on Gaza. As if both the countries gave a damn about a resolution in the parliament.
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Look how the poor guy tries to avoid answering the BJP u-turns. Its okay, we understand your pain.

As for AAP's poster. Absolutely proud of it. Kids being massacred while the rest of watches. Atleast they had the balls to stand up and have their opinion known. Only a BJP bhakt would be inhumane and stupid enough to have a problem with that.
 
Party Monger said:
Look how the poor guy tries to avoid answering the BJP u-turns. Its okay, we understand your pain.

As for AAP's poster. Absolutely proud of it. Kids being massacred while the rest of watches. Atleast they had the balls to stand up and have their opinion known. Only a BJP bhakt would be inhumane and stupid enough to have a problem with that.
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When the riots in saharanpur takes place. What happens to those balls? Do they just drop off?
The question becomes even more critical when both the affected parties were minorities.
Same goes with the ISIS episodes, the balls and their pride.
 
avi said:
Why The BJP Government Looks Like UPA-3
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Like UPA in terms of tactics. Both parties are opportunists. Think of it this way than in terms of ideology because it isn't clear what parties stand for nowadays. It is easier for them to say what they stand against.

So do not be surprised if when one party is in opposition it objects to what the incumbent does and then when it gets to be incumbent will actually implement what it opposed earlier provided it gets the support.

Seems like they are contradicting their former position but this is normal. All the items you mentioned are what either party would like to implement themselves.

Give it some more time, its early days, see the successes & failures. How well they can match the expectations they created. Am not seeing this govt as a BJP govt but more of a Modi govt. Somebody who wanted to be PM rather than being an accidental PM. Someone who wants to step into Nehru's shoes. He wants to be the next Nehru in terms of importance and consequence. Will be a break from the past.
 
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avi said:
They opposed everything good also, thus hindering UPA making progress
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did they?

actually it was the courts which hindered UPA making any progress.

it was the courts which forced the govt to cancel the arbitrarily distributed 2g licenses.
it was the courts which asked to check up on the allocation of the coal blocks.
UPA on its account were busy floating the Zero Loss theory in all scams.
the opposition were active to get the matters in court and be heard, else all those matters were made to go hush hush in the media itself.
it was when the court agreed with the opposition which then cancelled the allocations and in order to further prevent any embarrassment, they went into hibernation.

in maharashtra itself, there were two major scams of the innumerable ones (the irrigation scam & the adarsh scam).
there were inquiry commission setup with the judges having almost next to no right to interrogate the ministers.

even then the state govt does is partially accept the report limited to accepting the blame on the bureaucracy and absolving the ministers of any undoing.
 
avi said:
They opposed everything good also, thus hindering UPA making progress
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yes but i see this as business. If the boot were on the other foot it would be similar. See UPA's position on FDI in retail with the previous NDA govt. This point if you consider the last three administrations sees the merchant lobby winning.

Objective is bring down the incumbent, party comes first, everything else is secondary. This is why ideology means nothing to either unless it provides a tactical advantage. Very good for either party as they can manouever and change their positions as suitable, it means nothing is impossible regardless of who is in power.

Bipartisan ship is rare to see. I guess we will only see that when the country gets attacked.
 
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avi said:
^thats how people are being mass brainwashed
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See the investments coming in. And the simple reason for that is the expectation of more decisiveness at the govt level.

When you say its the same, i'm saying the tactics are the same. To then extrapolate same into saying no difference between the two is flawed. Cannot compare what happened with what is about to happen. 5 years with 2 months ? Premature comparison. When the present term is about to end, we can reassess and then there will be more justifications for same or not. There will be success & failures.

Also how fair is to compare a govt that was hamstrung with leadership & coalition issues with one that has an absolute majority with no doubt as to who is in charge.
 
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