@red dragon - There are a lot of stats related to Coronavirus but I have been particularly looking at just 2. No of deaths and no of recovered. If we look at the Worldometer website, they have always listed 95-96% cases as mild and 4-5% cases as severe. Everything looks normal and hunky-dory when you look at the stat, but the picture changes completely when one looks at the stats I mentioned earlier. Suddenly there is a jump with 21% dead and only 79% recovered. I have seen that number to be as low as 10-12% but now it is at 21%. For a country like Italy, that number is 36%, for Spain 21% and a dismal 41% for US right now. Although there can still be misreporting of numbers and many deaths not getting counted, I still find this stat one of the most important as it shows us the end result and how difficult and horrible the consequences can be.
Everywhere it is being reported that how many people will be completely asymptomatic and how most will only have mild symptoms but, at least for me, those 2 stats show the real picture.
I couldn't follow your maths there but there is an important point you've missed and that is number of infected. That number is larger than what is reported because you can't completely account for it. If you take take that into consideration the fatality rate drops. And i would not be surprised if it stabilises at under 1%.
Higher death rates in some countries is because they failed to isolate the vulnerable in time. In Germany they had a no visitor policy in place for nursing & old age homes. That simple move that costs nothing has made an incredible difference to death rates in that country.
Also when comparing countries always use the per thousand or per million figure. The paper today says the US is the worst affected country. Nah, it isn't. If you compare affected or deaths per million. Than just number of cases. Earlier there were models projecting US deaths any where from 100 - 240k. Having looked at the data i called this for what it was, Rubbish. Now they are revising those figures and optimistically its only 60k.
Guess what, they lost 50k people to flu last year. So even up to 100k isn't bad for C19 for a country of the population of the US. What people have trouble accepting is those deaths coming in a shorter duration than over a year.
So, just like in Sepsis, or in terminal stage of Ebola, you are seeing the onset of a cytokine storm with this virus as well.
I know many drugs are being tried and I might be completely out of depth over here, but have natural anti-inflammatory treatments like that with Curcumin been tried to suppress the cytokine storms. And can such natural treatments be effective in such terminal cases. I found articles on Pubmed, but can only see the Abstract.
The use of curcumin should be investigated in patients with Ebola and cytokine storm. Intravenous formulations may allow achievement of therapeutic blood levels of curcumin.
I couldn't follow your maths there but there is an important point you've missed and that is number of infected. That number is larger than what is reported because you can't completely account for it. If you take take that into consideration the fatality rate drops. And i would not be surprised if it stabilises at under 1%.
It's very simple mate. Yes you can definitely consider that everyone in this world is infected and that might be true ultimately. Even I have pointed out that many people will be completely asymptomatic.
However, if we consider only the people who need hospitalization, then the stats show that when people get admitted 95% people have mild symptoms but 20% of them are dying. Which means that we can't feel safe looking at the 95% number as nearly 15% of those case convert into severe and ultimately those people die. The number of active cases will keep on increasing, but when all this is over, the true data will be represented by the 2 stats I mentioned i.e. How many of those cases recovered and how many ended up dead. And that number is increasing every day, giving us the true picture of the severity of the disease.
It's very simple mate. Yes you can definitely consider that everyone in this world is infected and that might be true ultimately. Even I have pointed out that many people will be completely asymptomatic.
Not every one. Whether it continues to infect more or not. The idea that 80% will be infected is from flu studies. Does this virus behave like that too or is there some ceiling ?
This morning we have some data giving a little more insight into the great unknown of the coronavirus pandemic: just how widely among the population has SARS-CoV-2 – the virus which causes Covid-19 – spread among the general population. A team at the University of Bonn has tested a randomised...
www.spectator.co.uk
Why only max15% got infected on the Diamond Princess. That cruise ship was as good a lab as any for this virus to multiply in. So there are still unknowns here which have a direct bearing on policy. And our policy from what i can tell is being influenced by the models that came out of Imperial College and this guy Neil Ferguson. Just like the UK govt and a number of others that went in for the lock down.
However, if we consider only the people who need hospitalization, then the stats show that when people get admitted 95% people have mild symptoms but 20% of them are dying. Which means that we can't feel safe looking at the 95% number as nearly 15% of those case convert into severe and ultimately those people die. The number of active cases will keep on increasing, but when all this is over, the true data will be represented by the 2 stats I mentioned i.e. How many of those cases recovered and how many ended up dead. And that number is increasing every day, giving us the true picture of the severity of the disease.
So, just like in Sepsis, or in terminal stage of Ebola, you are seeing the onset of a cytokine storm with this virus as well.
I know many drugs are being tried and I might be completely out of depth over here, but have natural anti-inflammatory treatments like that with Curcumin been tried to suppress the cytokine storms. And can such natural treatments be effective in such terminal cases. I found articles on Pubmed, but can only see the Abstract.
The use of curcumin should be investigated in patients with Ebola and cytokine storm. Intravenous formulations may allow achievement of therapeutic blood levels of curcumin.
Possible, but I don't know. Logically many things should work, but so far nothing is working.
Please don't take it as flu, influenza ( any serotype) doesn't spread this fast. This amount of cough and air hunger is unusual in common flu.
I called up the NIMHANS helpline to deal with my anxiety. They were very helpful and supportive, however provided one very crucial wrong information. According to them, the virus is not leaving any residual damage in lung.
After explaining the psychiatrist in details, he told me, it's the order of central government!!
I completely understood his frustration as a doctor. But he was really helpful and knowledgeable person.
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Finally managed to watch some bengali news channels again. It is really disgusting how are they discussing an epidemic with clinicians who have not seen a single Covid induced ARDS ,not even a single epidemic in their lifetime, these physicians are as harmful as Whatsapp messages. Where are the Community medicine legends of India? I`m really sick of seeing people like Sukumar Mukherjee/ Sibabrata Banerjee, they are good clinicians but do not know the first thing about epidemiology. It is a completely different subject from internal medicine.
BTW, China is having the first of the secondary waves now. This is the main problem with isolation predominant approach. Bhilwara and areas nearby will also face the same problem in next 21-28 days. Hope our blr_p will now understand it takes years of studies and practical experience to understand certain things.
@red dragon - I know it is not easy, especially since you are right in the middle of the storm, but please try and spend your free time in doing some regular stuff. I know it is easier said than done, but it seems that is the only way we can hold on to some sanity during these trying times. I guess, we humans can no longer hide behind modern medicine and will have to finally face evolution.
Very true mate, very true!! Modern medicine is a double edged sword. My biggest problem is insomnia and chronic fatigue. And missing my family. It was much easier with Lenka around. I lost a great friend in Italy also. @blr_p, mate if you want to understand what's going on, stop reading random articles. Instead read a textbook of epidemiology. Learn the basics of cross sectional, longitudinal cohort studies. Learn some basic biostatistics, at least some probability theory.
Only then you will be able to appreciate how much garbage studies are there in community medicine.
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Dr. Fauci is getting fired soon...finally!! Who thought Trump is an idiot and doesn't have balls??
Hope our Modi learns from it and fire that idiot Luv Agarwal.
Dr. Fauci is getting fired soon...finally!! Who thought Trump is an idiot and doesn't have balls??
Hope our Modi learns from it and fire that idiot Luv Agarwal.
Posting the Article link from Today's HT (article author resonated the similar thoughts [through the references of people from the field of medicine] of what our friend @red dragon is telling us off)
It's not China's responsibility to give India kits. It's the government's duty to manufacture and procure kits. Living in denial that locking down the nation and putting millions in quarantine without testing is state sponsored systemic murder.
India's proactive stance with early lockdown would have been a great idea, if the focus was breaking the chain of infection ( it was very much possible with less than 1000 cases) but now with relatively higher load ( God knows what's the real load) that approach is going to be extremely difficult for a country which couldn't break it with one tenth of cases ( that too immobile due to lockdown)
It's beyond my comprehension, how some so called "experts" view this more than 10 fold ( possibly hundreds of times more with optimal testing) rise in 3 weeks with complete lockdown is a success.
A fraction of the revenue lost during this 3 weeks would have been more than enough to test adequate random samples from all corners of India.
In few days you will hear the " random sampling" phrase a lot from ICMR, as our brilliant researchers are finally reading up the textbooks again after many years.
And hats off to the brilliant PM!! He expects millions to go hungry for 40 days to compensate for his greed and incompetence. 40 days of lockdown in a country where an average middle class person doesn't even make 1000 EUR per month!! Countries with 4-5 times more average monthly income are struggling.
"Ours not to reason why, ours but to do and die" - India under her current leader.
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Received a heart breaking whatsapp message from a auto driver in Kolkata, he helped us a lot during our stay there in 2019 ( he was my wife`s primary mode of transport in south kolkata as Uber was giving her a hard time) This guy has 3 school going kids, and he has no money left, whatever little he saved is gone during the initial 2 weeks.This guy went to college and has a BSc degree, but could not find a job other than some courier delivery jobs. Moreover his wife had rheumatic fever in childhood and suffers from rheumatic mitral stenosis requiring some medicines everyday (very cheap diuretics etc.)
He has a SBI account but could not tell me if internet banking is available or not. What is the easiest way to send some small amount of money (500 EUR) to that account from Europe? I have accounts in Ceska sporitelna (a Czech bank), tried online transfer, did not work (could not even add his account details in the mobile app of sporitelna)
You guys are experts in these things, any suggestion?
He has a SBI account but could not tell me if internet banking is available or not. What is the easiest way to send some small amount of money (500 EUR) to that account from Europe? I have accounts in Ceska sporitelna (a Czech bank), tried online transfer, did not work (could not even add his account details in the mobile app of sporitelna)
You guys are experts in these things, any suggestion?
You have following options
1. Speak to your Bank to send it to his bank account as Wire transfer (might involve communication and paperwork); for this - he doesn't need internet banking and the entire amount you wish to transfer will get credited into his account
2. Try Western Union - that will be easier; He can go to any nearby Western Union outlet and get the cash (he might have to share few documents as proof - especially Aadhar card). You can transfer it online too.
Give me his SBI account details via PM. I will do a transfer of 2k to test if it works via NEFT.
After that you can use transferwise to transfer the money directly to the account. I have used this 2 years back to transfer money from my Australian ANZ account to Indian HDFC account and it was hassle free.
Never tried Western Union before, but a quick Google search suggested it's not complicated and I can even send to his account directly. Will try that first, if it doesn't work will call my bank. But I'm not in Czech Republic now, and he needs the money urgently.
Thanks a lot
Give me his SBI account details via PM. I will do a transfer of 2k to test if it works via NEFT.
After that you can use transferwise to transfer the money directly to the account. I have used this 2 years back to transfer money from my Australian ANZ account to Indian HDFC account and it was hassle free.
Thanks a lot buddy, let me try Western Union once, if doesn't work will pm you. Thanks a ton.
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Done! The IFSC code is SWIFT code here. Messed up the IFSC code...it was super easy like any other bank transfer. I'm really an idiot!! And too much wine last night..Thanks everyone.
Never tried Western Union before, but a quick Google search suggested it's not complicated and I can even send to his account directly. Will try that first, if it doesn't work will call my bank. But I'm not in Czech Republic now, and he needs the money urgently.
Thanks a lot
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Thanks a lot buddy, let me try Western Union once, if doesn't work will pm you. Thanks a ton.
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Done! The IFSC code is SWIFT code here. Messed up the IFSC code...it was super easy like any other bank transfer. I'm really an idiot!! And too much wine last night..Thanks everyone.
It's not China's responsibility to give India kits. It's the government's duty to manufacture and procure kits. Living in denial that locking down the nation and putting millions in quarantine without testing is state sponsored systemic murder.
India's proactive stance with early lockdown would have been a great idea, if the focus was breaking the chain of infection ( it was very much possible with less than 1000 cases) but now with relatively higher load ( God knows what's the real load) that approach is going to be extremely difficult for a country which couldn't break it with one tenth of cases ( that too immobile due to lockdown)
It's beyond my comprehension, how some so called "experts" view this more than 10 fold ( possibly hundreds of times more with optimal testing) rise in 3 weeks with complete lockdown is a success.
A fraction of the revenue lost during this 3 weeks would have been more than enough to test adequate random samples from all corners of India.
In few days you will hear the " random sampling" phrase a lot from ICMR, as our brilliant researchers are finally reading up the textbooks again after many years.
And hats off to the brilliant PM!! He expects millions to go hungry for 40 days to compensate for his greed and incompetence. 40 days of lockdown in a country where an average middle class person doesn't even make 1000 EUR per month!! Countries with 4-5 times more average monthly income are struggling.
"Ours not to reason why, ours but to do and die" - India under her current leader.
Post automatically merged:
Received a heart breaking whatsapp message from a auto driver in Kolkata, he helped us a lot during our stay there in 2019 ( he was my wife`s primary mode of transport in south kolkata as Uber was giving her a hard time) This guy has 3 school going kids, and he has no money left, whatever little he saved is gone during the initial 2 weeks.This guy went to college and has a BSc degree, but could not find a job other than some courier delivery jobs. Moreover his wife had rheumatic fever in childhood and suffers from rheumatic mitral stenosis requiring some medicines everyday (very cheap diuretics etc.)
He has a SBI account but could not tell me if internet banking is available or not. What is the easiest way to send some small amount of money (500 EUR) to that account from Europe? I have accounts in Ceska sporitelna (a Czech bank), tried online transfer, did not work (could not even add his account details in the mobile app of sporitelna)
You guys are experts in these things, any suggestion?
Thanks a ton mate. I was able to transfer a small amount to Khokon's ( the super awesome auto driver) SBI account.
Thanks a lot to everyone who came forward so quickly to help. This is the India I knew.... you guys are out there ready to help a complete stranger in this chaotic situation.
Bhagwaan/ Allah/ Jesus bless you all and TE.
Anyone with any query regarding this virus, please feel free to ask. Will try to explain the medical part to the best of my limited abilities.
If anyone you know in Kolkata is having cash crunch due to this epidemic ( non payment of salaries etc.) Please send me a pm with the name and contact number of the person. Some old members of IMA Kolkata, have made some arrangements to deal with the situation.
