avi
Keymaster
Although it looks enticing, I would not for now. Years ago, during my college times, there was a new political startup - Paritrana. Back then it was my dream to join the party. Now it has gone the way of dodo. Politics is not just about right intentions; it is about the right organization.
As a startup, AAP has to first make its MVP (Minimum Viable Product) and prove that it has the ability to make a change in a small environment. The MVP here is an experimental approach in cleaning up one city. Then it can worry about scaling. Trying to attack the national politics from the word go is stupid when they have not proven themselves at a state or even at a district level.
Even the Mahatma (who had a million times better organization skills than anyone alive) took that slow approach. He first fought for local issues (such as the farmer issues in Champaran and salt issue in Dandi) before scaling that into a national movement.
Vote Split
In the year 2000, when Al Gore and George Bush were bitterly fighting for the White House, a little known Green Party entered the scene and spoiled the party. The environmentalists traditionally voted for the Democrats (Al Gore), but now had a new option. Facing with the choice, some of them went for the Green party. Those few were enough to change the outcome of the election. In the end the difference was less than 600 votes and the Green party split 97K votes from Gore.
The environmentalists had to face a much worser choice (George W. Bush) due to their support of the Green party.
Indian case is not different. Any vote for AAP will make the outcomes worse for those voting. In the end, neither BJP nor AAP would win. The winner will be Congress (just as the winner in the above election was George Bush).
If I were consulting the AAP, I would ask them to first focus on the Delhi state elections and then expand their influence over other metros by winning local councillor elections. If they can't even win local councilor and MLA elections, how can they win the national elections?
Once they have done the first step, they can start creating change. Over a 5 year period they can build a variety of achievements and prove the electorate that they mean business.
Until they reach that point, voting for the AAP in the national elections is pointless. It will just split the urban middleclass vote and aid the Congress (who is weak in urban India and get their votes from the illiterates). Only when the herd unites can you ward off the predator.
A close friend of mine quit his software engineer job and is building a grassroots political movement with the help of Loksatta. Ashok Rajendran for Mylapore MLA. The AAP should tap into such people and build the momentum from the ground-up and not top-down.
In short, voting for the AAP in national elections is as good as voting the Congress. If you want the status quo by all means vote for the AAP. But, you can be honest and just vote for INC if that is your intention.
http://www.quora.com/Politics/Would...o-in-2014-And-why/answer/Balaji-Viswanathan-2