India-Pakistan current war like situation discussion (Pahalgham)

[ajeetone]

After pahalgam attack when the main opposition party said they stand with the govt, I thought they still have some redeemable qualities especially in times of national crisis. Turns out they are just waiting for opportunity to corner the govt as war or no-war will give them enough even when its lose, win or stalemate situation.

It hasn't been 24hrs since the announcement of ceasefire, and they are already saying "miss indira" blah blah and are asking for immediate parliament session etc to cash-in on public disappointment. They couldn't even wait for the talks with pak tomorrow. If we continued with the operation and had to suffer losses(which is guaranteed in any war), they'll just claim the human cost as reason for their inaction during parliament and mumbai attacks.

For their next mis-adventure, Pak has to just wait until the opposition forms govt.

There are rumors about Pak was testing minor nukes to threatened India, US/India sensed that. and this changed the whole game.
There are many people including one of my friend who is saying yesterday all news live feed was paused (not available), simultaneously all TV news channel/anchors tone down or swiftly change the narrative.
There are heavy loss at India side too including loss of rafale. Pak don't have much too loose where India have lots of business, economy and can't (and should not) really afford to go full war.
US/Trump came as mediator to slow things down, India accepted this. Now the India's foreign policy take a unusal turn, this give some ammo to opposition party atleast their IT cell.

 

[blr_p]

Main reason for that is their closeness to China which would have happened no matter what.

Not if Trump has a say

I think 10-15 years ago we missed the opportunity to resolve our (then) trivial disputes with China

Who told you they're trivial? They were never trivial and I'm speaking from since the Nehru era not 15 years ago.

We had a couple of chances to resolve them and both Nehru turned Chou down as did Indira to Deng. Politically unacceptable then as well as now or the future.

Incidentally our argument against China is similar to Israels right to exist.

uti possidetis juris which means when a new state forms, unless there is another resolution, then the new state inherits the preexisting administrative lines of the previous administration. This rule goes back to when South America was achieving independence from the Spanish, and has been used in modern cases like the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Arunachal by that argument belongs to India. I've never heard this argument from any Indian commentator.

and create a Rus-China-Ind alliance instead of the Rus-China-Pakistan alliance that will most likely form now.

RIC has existed since the early 2000s. Russians want us to act as a balanced against the Chinese. In short

Russia doesn't want to become a Chinese vassal
India doesnt want Russia to get too close to China
US under Trump doesn't see Russia as a threat unlike the EU& EU friendly Democrat party. So prying Russia away from China weakens china and is a US win

That's three countries interests aligned.

Russia also has been selling more and more arms to Pakistan.

They won't sell them anything substantial so long as we don't buy anything substantial from the US.

What does substantial mean? Any F35 or lesser fighter jet. I don't see this happening for a number of reasons.

 

[roadrash99]

Who told you they're trivial?

They were trivial 10-15 years ago, as compared to our issues with Pakistan.

RIC has existed since the early 2000s. Russians want us to act as a balanced against the Chinese. In short

Russia doesn't want to become a Chinese vassal
India doesnt want Russia to get too close to China
US under Trump doesn't see Russia as a threat unlike the EU& EU friendly Democrat party. So prying Russia away from China weakens china and is a US win

That's three countries interests aligned.

Russia will never be fully able to trust US or the West. China is a natural ally for Russia. As for being a vassal, that is unfortunately Russia's future either way, as they lack the economic might to be a real superpower. So between being a vassal of the West and China, they will choose China.

 

[cellar_door]

Genuinely sad that even in a "democracy in name only" country, Pakistans PM still comes out and does a conference.

We cant even do bare minimums.

 

[ashish]

I doubt we will target the remaining terror facilities anytime soon and when we do the war will take a new face for sure.
Pak will make the best use of this buffer period strategically and try to acquire new techs from their distant and neighbouring friends you know who I mean. And of course we will be vigilant than before across all borders and waters.

It would have been a total disaster for pak if we have destroyed their all airports I mean each of them.

This is far from over and the real slogan by General MM Narvane that 'Picture Abhi Baaki Hai' suits today and not when on day one.

 

[blr_p]

They were trivial 10-15 years ago, as compared to our issues with Pakistan.

Trivial if China let's go of their claim over Arunachal which they won't. And their argument is if you claim Aksai Chin as Indian then China claims Arunachal.

This is like a thief breaking into your house and saying you can have your wallet back but not your coat (!)

Russia will never be fully able to trust US or the West.

On the contrary at the start of the 2000s and under Putin, Russia actually wanted to join NATO. It was the west that was never able to reconcile with Russia. And it was this pointless stubbornness to accept the cold war was truly over that led to the entirely useless Ukraine conflict.

China is a natural ally for Russia.

This has never been the case. China has territorial claims over Russia's far east going up to Vladivostok. You should look up the Amur river as it snakes it way east towards the Pacific. Its a natural border between Russia & China. See whether you find any bridges over that river and ask yourself why is that if these two are so called natural allies. In fact there are still fences that date back to the soviet area with Russian soldiers patrolling.

Have you forgotten about the sino soviet split where Mao was challenging the soviets for leadership of the communist world because he thought the soviets had sold out on communism.

The rivalry led to border clashes in '67 and subsequently to the credible possibility of a nuclear war between the two so called natural allies. It was this split that kissinger sought to exploit to pry China away from the soviets. Forcing the Soviets to place thirty divisions against China and in effect reducing the threat of a soviet invasion on Europe.

Trump is trying to do a reverse kissinger here. Pry Russia away from China. The Russians are open to such a discussion. Anything that gives them leverage over China is welcome to them. So like India as potentially the US under Trump.

I thought China already had the s400 only to discover Russia suspended the s400 sale after discovering a case of Chinese espionage against them. Result is china does not have the s400 and only the now decades old s300 which they have copied and sell as the HQ9. Not very effective against our recent missile salvos it must be said

As for being a vassal, that is unfortunately Russia's future either way, as they lack the economic might to be a real superpower. So between being a vassal of the West and China, they will choose China.

Russia will not be a vassal to anyone. They see themselves not unlike India as a balancer or kingmaker. Whichever side India or Russia join becomes stronger and heavier. We need Russia too to avoid becoming too dependent on the west. Our strategic autonomy depends to a certain extent on Russia remaining independent in the future and vice versa.

 

[nRiTeCh]

 

[blr_p]

Earlier I couldn't understand what the PM meant by 'destroy the remaining ground of the terrorists'

Seems obvious now. He meant target their headquarters or similar.

View attachment 235028

It's this 'new normal' business their strategic community is afraid of. Paks now perceive a lack of deterrence against us which for some reason they believe existed before but Kargil should have told them otherwise. In reality it was our restraint that prevented a more forceful response earlier. I believe earlier we were incapable of handling an escalation which we are confident with now. Funny thing is the General disagrees with me on that point when it was him that led me to this conclusion in the first place. It was strategic patience according to him.

Pakistan were in the process of sending a harder response when Trump got in their way.

If both sides are upset with Trump then you can say he's done the right thing

 

[roadrash99]

Post from French facebook highlighting why Qatar was thanked by Pak PM yesterday. Maybe we need to something similar, get one of our neighbours to buy Chinese equipment and then gain such intel from them.

#Qatar's role in the downing of the Indian Rafale EH on May 7, 2025:

During #OperationSindoor by the #Indian armed forces in response to the #Kashmir Terrorist Attack on May 7, 2025, the 17th Squadron of the #IndianAirForce lost a Rafale EH (tail number BS001) to a PL-15 long-range air-to-air missile fired by a #PakistaniAirForce J-10CE multirole fighter. Indian media mistakenly published an image of the wreckage, misidentifying it as a Pakistani JF-17C

It has now been revealed that in January 2024, the Qatari Air Force provided comprehensive Rafale familiarization training to pilots of Pakistan's 15th Multi-Role Squadron based at Minhas Air Base during Exercise Zilzal-II. Seven of these Pakistani pilots even had the opportunity to fly in the back seat of Qatari Rafale DHs during joint exercises, gaining first-hand experience in dogfights with the French aircraft.

Thanks to Qatar's support, Pakistani J-10CE pilots were better prepared to counter Indian Rafales before the recent conflict—an advantage the Indian Air Force did not possess, putting them at a tactical disadvantage

Unlike the United States, France does not impose operational restrictions on the use of its exported fighter jets. For example, the United Arab Emirates Air Force reportedly shared operational details of its Mirage 2000-9EADs with China during joint exercises with the People's Liberation Army Air Force—information that could assist Chinese pilots in potential future confrontations with Taiwanese Mirage 2000s.

The lack of an enforceable strategy to prevent the sharing of sensitive intelligence related to French-made weaponry could one day cost French service members their lives. Critics say the short-term financial gains sought by French politicians are taking priority over long-term national security

Source:

 

[blr_p]

Starting from tomorrow, Pakistan's narrative everywhere will be that they were winning hands down but USA/Trump came and held them back from defeating India.

And that is the phrasing they would use

In reality, Trump prevented them from stopping India creating a new normal

 

[adder]

Who knows what the past US administrations have some kind of a deal/treaty with Pakistan. Remember Pakistan helped a lot in fighting the soviets and post 9/11 invasion of Afghanistan.

They didn't allow Israel to take out pak nukes a couple of decades back.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1921425613073572243

Lol look at these clowns.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1921457608302416374

 

[blr_p]

Post from French facebook highlighting why Qatar was thanked by Pak PM yesterday. Maybe we need to something similar, get one of our neighbours to buy Chinese equipment and then gain such intel from them.



Source:

Source I want is this video where the alleged Rafael tail fin screengrab comes from.

Know where it is ?

We never see the video in these presentations. Only the screenshot

 

[yugaaa]

Bombing civilian space isn't the answer. They want to portray India as "heartless civilian murderers". Pakistan apparently is using civilian spaces as shields, such as keeping all commercial airports open (need to fact check, more). Pakistan has ego issues. The calmer India stays in being measured in its approach, the more it ticks them off, and they start escalating the issue to try and (laughibly) prove that "Nobody messes with us!". This makes them an even bigger laughing stock, which is the whole approach.

The dog is Pakistan; all bark, no logical substance.

View attachment 235009

Not bigger than Modi who barked in Bihar and then bent down when Trump told him to .

 

[blr_p]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1920544698583626150

 

[yugaaa]

We hit their nuke storage area a few hours after it was reported that pak pm meet the strategic command force their nuclear force.

Don't think anything else will spook the USA

hearsay . No substance

 

[blr_p]

Not bigger than Modi who barked in Bihar and then bent down when Trump told him to .

It was the Paks that bent down

Think who wanted to continue. Not us. We made the point with the first strike

 

[animishticomb]

Modi his cronies and Sanghis are a disgrace to our country .

Reported

 

[yugaaa]

It was the Paks that bent down

Think who wanted to continue. Not us. We made the point with the first strike

Oh ! really ? If they bent down they would have apologized. Their premier would not be proclaiming that they won .

 

[blr_p]

Oh ! really ? If they bent down they would have apologized.

No more IMF for them otherwise

Their premier would not be proclaiming that they won .

They claim to have won '71 also.

What do you say about that?

 

[yugaaa]

Reported

Sure . Never has India been disgraced and a ceasefire been imposed by a foreign country . An imposed ceasefire acceptance is as good as losing the war . Spinning it as having won is the disgrace part .