alekhkhanna
Level H
And many of these ****ers are freshly getting added to market indices. SMH.
Adani group, an Evil corp?
- Thread starter Pyception
- Start date
And many of these ****ers are freshly getting added to market indices. SMH.
Dont the Chinese already own ports in Greece, Hungary, Iran, Pakistan, Sri Lanka etc? They have a rail line running right to their ports in Europe. They are building another rail line to gwadar port in Pakistan so their shipping times reduce even more. Even if india got chabahar, I'm sure it's no big loss to them. They already won imo, don't know why you think they have anything to lose. Also India has a lot of catching up to do wrt China. India can't just become another Shenzhen overnight with our current MP's who only think short term plans till they are in power. Even in the year 2100, i doubt India will be like China of 2020. It's an impossible task for our country.
Privatise profits and socialize the losses.
Marcus Fenix
Level H
Its absolutely necessary for govt. to provide geopolitical backing to our conglomerates on the international stage to counter China.
Just notice how US govt. backed up TSMC and Intel for chip fabs recently .
But the problem is putting all your eggs in one basket as well as using public money e.g. LIC/SBI to prop them up.
Another bigger possible long-term problem I see is how the regulators handle this issue.
If they go "Sab Changa Si" that will erode trust in our market massively among large foreign investors and as you know we need that money if we want to catch up with China.
One good analogy I came across-
blr_p
Level N
Modi's vision for a resilient supply chain will take time. Maybe a decade. He'll still be in power to see it through. The Russians will get the north south corridor done now that their gas no longer flows west it will go south and east.
The Chinese were supposed to get old in 2030, the clocks worked faster and they're there today. Kinda explains why they've got so antsy. India gets old in 2070. Lots of growth ahead for us.
China's peaked already. The China of today is not like that of pre-covid. They've lost the trust of the world. Companies are moving out and they are trying to stem the loss. China is not going to grow unopposed anymore. See the tensions they have with the US already. Pre-covid people were saying China will overtake the US economy. It will never happen now.
Who believes in their GDP anymore? If it was 18tr. I'd estimate it's no more than 12tr today. They inflated their figures by 2% for the last 9 years. Then they had a real estate crash. 30% of their GDP is tied into real estate and it's lost 40%. So let's take off another 5-10% more. And you get -30%. The real estate thing was a massive Ponzi scheme with govt involved until the bubble burst.
I suspected something was up when both bought 20% of their share of Russian oil. We bought 1m barrels. The Chinese only amounted to 2m. Why so little if their economy is supposed to be more than five times larger? only if it is no longer five times larger.
They will have to grow at 5% each year for the next six just to recover to where they were pre-covid. And I don't think they can do it. We're slated to grow for the rest of the decade.
Who's ahead of us? Germany & Japan. Both were rebuilt after WW2, and peace dividend for 70 years. You get to grow under those circumstances. Then there is China which teamed up with the US, becomes P5 member and got propped up by them with the most favoured trading status because the Americans foolishly believed the CCP would become their allies. Didn't work out. Forty-year peace dividend. So the next three were built by the US.
Who helped India? nobody. Not the west. For all their homilies about human rights and democracy, the West supported a military dictatorship and an autocratic communist regime. The post-WW2 order did not care for our territorial sovereignty. We needed economic programs for which there were few takers, only Germany & Russia stepped up. Then we get told in '67 we won't be able to have any nuclear weapons which we resolved. Thirty years of tech sanctions for that. So we could not get onto the manufacturing bus that east Asia started. We inherited two adversaries at independence and had to fight them. We still grew and here we are today. On our own strength. So India's growth is unstoppable. How many Indians realise what we've had to fight through and appreciate what we achieved?
With the Ukraine conflict, Germany gets deindustrialised. We will overtake them in 2027 rather than 2030. Japan isn't growing much, they will get left behind. We are $10tr by 2035
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alekhkhanna
Level H
.............
> The Chinese were supposed to get old in 2030, the clocks worked faster and they're there today.
Difficult to trust statistics from China. They way they enforced one child policy, they may enforce 2 child policy. Or as seen in random, discover few million people who were not in their statistical records.
Moreover, they have capability to automatize industrial processes in massive scale, which is already proven. Can be used to outplay any emerging entity unless artificial restrictions like trade sanctions, ban on technology transfer, etc. are forced on.
Difficult to trust statistics from China. They way they enforced one child policy, they may enforce 2 child policy. Or as seen in random, discover few million people who were not in their statistical records.
Moreover, they have capability to automatize industrial processes in massive scale, which is already proven. Can be used to outplay any emerging entity unless artificial restrictions like trade sanctions, ban on technology transfer, etc. are forced on.
blr_p
Level N
Already allowed two child policy back in 2016. Problem? not too many takers because it's expensive to bring up two kids in China. So their replacement rate is negative as many couples prefer not to have kids.
I think the opposite is the case. There was a database hack some time back and they found only a billion people in it. Children included. So their population is less than ours presently.
Japan had that before yet chose to make in China. So labour costs play a role because not everything can be automated.
Found it. The Americans did not pressure the Chinese to withdraw their bid. They pressured the Israelis to reject it. Emiratis withdrew as well as local bidders. That's how Adani got it.Am interested to know how the Americans got the Chinese to withdraw their bid
The same thing we don't want happening in Sri Lanka
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cellar_door
Level F
I just want to say to everyone here who is bulk buying Adani stock that when you become filthy rich, I always believed in you and I could really use a 4090. And a LG OLED.
Cause you are all buying it with every spare nickel you can find. Right? lol
Cause you are all buying it with every spare nickel you can find. Right? lol
Tracer_Bullet
Level F
This might be in jest, but no sane person should ever do that. To flip the argument, are all adani naysayers putting ALL of their money to short right ? Adani has stock futures, you can short too. Put money where your mouth is then. You can buy 4090 many many times with your shorts, right ? Its just a few lakhs, that's small change.
Adani stocks went up like crazy, so going down like crazy. Irrespective of other reasoning and whatever their national importance its movement was smelly. Its possible that they went up due to low float and stock manipulation. Perhaps same thing happened with ramdev/ruchisoya too. We can only speculate. Next few years, if they can reduce their leverage, hopefully they will survive without too much damage. Meanwhile its very volatile right now so going up and down like crazy. This could be bottom, or it could crash further if they cannot service debt, who knows. Was great stock to trade this year, if you can manage risk.
Things can get emotional in these kinds of arguments, but lets not push anyone into harm's way by inducing reckless action.
@blr_p
China’s data collectors discover they missed 11.6 million children born in the 2000s
fortune.com
See, just like that ? Only the ever omnipresent and top honchos at Chinese leadership may know the reality.
China’s data collectors discover they missed 11.6 million children born in the 2000s
China finds it missed counting 11.6 million children born in the 2000s
The undercount may have happened due to families keeping children secret for fear of breaching China's One Child Policy.
See, just like that ?
Only the ever omnipresent and top honchos at Chinese leadership may know the reality.Any source that says China was propped up by US to become a miracle economy
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blr_p
Level N
Surprised this isn't widely known. India & China had the same size economy in 1990. You think they grew on their own without any help
Most favoured trading nation status since 2001. Think about all the tech transfers these people agreed to twenty years prior and still do. You have to give them your IP to make anything there. They de-industrialised themselves over the decades by moving factories wholesale over there. Then the pandemic hit and they discovered they had no local capability to make PPE's and none was available because China took all the stock for domestic use. That was when they got a wake-up call to diversify their supply chains.
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One don't have to 'think'. Their policies that led to the growth is available easily now.Surprised this isn't widely known. India & China had the same size economy in 1990. You think they grew on their own without any help
Most favoured trading nation status since 2001.
They were not propped up by giving the most favoured status. That too as late as 2001. Industries flocked to China because of their policies. It was not a political favoritism. Their policies were precisely made because west will not give any technology transfer to enable their industries like they did for other nations
That aside. Even politically to think that US will side with China is plain weird. Is this something popular among Americans to take credit for what the Chinese did?
blr_p
Level N
The bottom line is Chinese didn't get there on their own. Yeah, their policies helped but its only part of the story. A small part.
If there is money to be made then people do it. The amount of elite capture that has occurred here that allows the sensitive tech to assist an adversary isn't weird its downright moronic. If it wasn't for Trump throwing a big spanner into the works this nonsense would be continuing even today. Note that when the Americans figured they were getting skewered they now try to warn allies and partners not to fall into the same trap
Do you mean to say Germany, Japan & China didn't benefit from US help? We got hardly any from the US. I think that was quite well explained already.
China would not have got to where it was without US help. That is pretty obvious. You don't get to grow at such a rate on your own just through policy.
Have we got an FTA with the US? not yet. What does the most favoured trading nation status give you ? and to have that for twenty years
That their economy is no longer the size it is claimed to be is even better news for us.
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Ohh I think many people wouldn't know how WTO destroyed Indian industries too. The Chinese stuff was good enough and also cheaper, and eventually killed most of the industries in India. The Chinese government had an important role to play in that. They subsidize Chinese businesses, in a way allowing Chinese companies to sell below their manufacturing cost, thus wiping off existing competition.
Good lord.
blr_p
Level N
It's a long topic. I can only give you a heads up
Check out a book called the 100yr Marathon by Mike Pilsbury
When the US does it gets repeated by the rest
They called it constructive engagement.
In the 70s when this madness began the Chinese economy was 10% the size of the US. What could possibly go wrong with such a policy?
Guess who the biggest collaborators are. Industry and wall street. The govt cannot control them and they want to make profits at any cost. It's insane.
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I'll just leave this here.
www.stlouisfed.org
China's Rise from Agrarian Society to Industrial Power | St. Louis Fed
China’s industrial revolution may be due to state policies that focused on a gradual development rather than trying to jump-start advanced industries.
blr_p
Level N
Yeah, he's not going to admit the US helped, is he? the usual claptrap that China did it all themselves like they re some super-beings which is bunk.I'll just leave this here.
China's Rise from Agrarian Society to Industrial Power | St. Louis Fed
China’s industrial revolution may be due to state policies that focused on a gradual development rather than trying to jump-start advanced industries.
Also, that article is dated 2016. Fag end of the Obama administration, a period where some people still mistakenly believed that China's rise would be peaceful. An administration that undoubtedly contributed further to China's rise in those eight years it was in power and made a number of blunders which had to be addressed by the next govt.
Whatever assumptions about China's rise back then no longer hold true in 2023 and going forward.