Indian Stock Market and Mutual Funds

Airtel in distribution phase ,major correction coming.

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honest1 said:
Without volume, how to know its a distribution phase?
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Nothing is ever so certain from patterns. It could just be a pause in a trend. Its clearly doing better than index.

Its hard to get it at first - but Nobody knows anything for certain in markets. Anyone can say anything with absolute confidence - it does not mean anything even if he is right 10 times in a row :)

You have odds and risk /reward. Even those are shifting in short term(shifts more) and long term ( shifts less).
Take a pattern/plan/system, Trade it 1000 tines. You lose x, you win y. if y-x = good money, then congrats, maybe idea works.
 
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Tracer_Bullet said:
Nothing is ever so certain from patterns. It could just be a pause in a trend. Its clearly doing better than index.

Its hard to get it at first - but Nobody knows anything for certain in markets. Anyone can say anything with absolute confidence - it does not mean anything even if he is right 10 times in a row :)

You have odds and risk /reward. Even those are shifting in short term(shifts more) and long term ( shifts less).
Take a pattern/plan/system, Trade it 1000 tines. You lose x, you win y. if y-x = good money, then congrats, maybe idea works.
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I am aware about all the things you have mentioned about markets :)
I asked since you mentioned that its a distribution phase and for it, volume plays a major role in that!

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honest1 said:
I am aware about all the things you have mentioned about markets :)
I asked since you mentioned that its a distribution phase and for it, volume plays a major role in that!

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1) I did not say that.

2) Rest doesn't matter, text book definitions definitely don't matter.
we have to confirm these things ourselves.
Not everything will work, probably most wont work. Else we can just pick up a TA book and start minting money.
If he sees something from price alone and it has worked well in past, then that's good enough.

3) Volume is generally correlated with price range, so we don't necessarily need it.
 
Techno said:
My technical analysis was spot on.
More bearish moves ahead.
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It pays not to be overconfident. Market doesn't care for anyone's analysis and we gotta be humble.
This might still work out as the basic expectation of a long pullback is more or less done now and we have a complex pullback.
But no signs of rejection/exhaustion of up move yet.

Lets see what market wants to do. Good luck.
 
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zeta30 said:
Well today was a relief for my portfolio.....
Last few months were nothing short of murder
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This was still only mild relatively so far. People got murdered in 2008 like falls.

We can very much get a bear market where pain is 2x or more than this and with very negative news flow for sustained periods.
That is the time when we/our portfolio truly gets tested and when diversification bears fruit. It doesn't happen often so people forget about it.
People chasing recent fads are even more at risk vs the 40%-60%+ falls in indices.

So take this one as a lesson and figure out risk management / diversification that keeps one capable of managing tough bear markets without vomiting out.
If one has a good portfolio ( even say basic diversified funds ), then one of the worst mistake people can make is to sell late in such crashes.
Anyway, good luck.
 
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Maybe out of topic. But if someone is from finance/taxation.

Which tax regime would better upcomming financial year for people who are salaried and were using old tax regime with nps self + nps employer contribution (10%)+ HRA in metro city+ all those other exemption to its limit. Except housing loan .Post claiming exemption the taxable income would be 16.5
 
burntwingzZz said:
Maybe out of topic. But if someone is from finance/taxation.

Which tax regime would better upcomming financial year for people who are salaried and were using old tax regime with nps self + nps employer contribution (10%)+ HRA in metro city+ all those other exemption to its limit. Except housing loan .Post claiming exemption the taxable income would be 16.5
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How much are you declaring in deductions. For most folks new tax regime will fare better. Your best bet is to calculate with an online calculator yourself.
 
burntwingzZz said:
There no detailed tax calculator which cover nps both exemptions and hra in addition to other sections ,for old tax regime
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It is difficult to compare without checking all deductions under both regimes. You will definitely need deductions in excess of 6L for old one to be better. In most cases, it doesn't make sense to go with the old regime in FY26.
 
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