Israel Hezbollah Pager Attack.

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I can tell you now & you can quote me on this a few years in future, this will never happen (peace without victory)

I don't know how you interpreted my comment so I will clarify further.

The question is whether you can diminish the threats over time. And that is definitely true if looking back over the last 50 years. Israel grew during this time and that is the key. In the last two decades their GDP per capita has increased significantly. Yet there was no peace as such.

The arabs as a whole realised Israel isn't going anywhere. Now it's Iran's turn and the longer things continue Iran also does not appear capable of changing the status quo. Increasingly I find Iran looking like a paper tiger.

I don't mean complete peace. There will be operations necessary to manage the situation. That is a given but it will be smaller scale than at present and Israel will have grown further.

unless Israel decide to use nuke & even if Trump turn the US upside down & become Prez for the 3rd time.

Under Trump Iran's economy got squeezed a lot. This meant less funds to support proxies.

When Biden came in he relaxed those sanctions and Iran has earned over a $100bn since which they put to good use spreading their tentacles over the region.

The trouble is the stark difference in policy between the two parties. The Republicans are getting the gulf behind Israel to balance Iran. The Democrats want to empower Iran at the expense of Israel and the gulf.

Nukes are to deter others from using them on you. No one in the region has any so this won't come up.

 

[guest_999]

and Israel will have grown further.

Just like how a balloon can't grow beyond its maximum stretching capacity without bursting same way Israel won't grow beyond a point without bursting West Asia & it is already pretty close to that point.

The trouble is the stark difference in policy between the two parties. The Republicans are getting the gulf behind Israel to balance Iran. The Democrats want to empower Iran at the expense of Israel and the gulf.

Remind me again which party was in power in White House when 9/11 happened & subsequent war on terror launched starting from Afghanistan & Iraq & death toll from 2001 till 2008. Democrats might be incompetent in many areas but Republicans have shown themselves to be even more incompetent in most areas in recent times.

 

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Just like how a balloon can't grow beyond its maximum stretching capacity without bursting same way Israel won't grow beyond a point without bursting West Asia & it is already pretty close to that point.

If Israel can continue to be strong, something they have to work on then the other gulf powers will back a strong horse. And that means not losing to Hamas.

How do you know what Israels maximum stretching capacity is?

To grow you need a young workforce. With the average Israeli woman wanting three kids and twice that with orthodox I would say there is plenty of room to grow further. There is something more. Those kids are happy too. In this global happiness index India ranked 127 and the US at 16 with people 30 years and below.

Guess who came fifth..

Remind me again which party was in power in White House when 9/11 happened & subsequent war on terror launched starting from Afghanistan & Iraq & death toll from 2001 till 2008. Democrats might be incompetent in many areas but Republicans have shown themselves to be even more incompetent in most areas in recent times.

Not following your train of thought here.

All I'm saying is Israel is no longer a bipartisan issue in American politics like say India is. It's become partisan for the first time. So who wins the next US election matters big time for them. Also Iran & other gulf states for that matter.

 

[TEUser2K1]

wondering how finger prints and face scan collected from our mobiles be used.

Now think about bio-metric data kept within safety of steel walls.

Obama was a plant.

He won speaking against war, heck during initial campaign he even used shaming words about joining military and apologized later.
Once won, caused jasmine revolution which is the root cause behind current world instability. Terrible deeds by with smooth talking and acting.

 

[guest_999]

If Israel can continue to be strong, something they have to work on then the other gulf powers will back a strong horse. And that means not losing to Hamas.

How do you know what Israels maximum stretching capacity is?

To grow you need a young workforce. With the average Israeli woman wanting three kids and twice that with orthodox I would say there is plenty of room to grow further. There is something more. Those kids are happy too. In this global happiness index India ranked 127 and the US at 16 with people 30 years and below.

Guess who came fifth..

That was all before 7th Oct & before Netanyahu decided to become a wannabe Putin. Wait for next happiness index.

Not following your train of thought here.

All I'm saying is Israel is no longer a bipartisan issue in American politics like say India is. It's become partisan for the first time. So who wins the next US election matters big time for them. Also Iran & other gulf states for that matter.

Republicans (more specifically the inept bumbling but "I am always right because I am the greatest US prez ever" Trump in WH) in power will make chances of Israel doing something very stupid even by their current standards more probable.

 

[altair21]

Man, I sure hope all this Israel hero-worshipping in India doesn't backfire for us majorly and we don't end up in a similar predicament to the U.S, where they now send $26 billion in aid to them and their entire political process is kept in a chokehold by AIPAC. Because at best, Israel is a settler colonialist state that consider other countries/gentiles to be useful tools towards their goals. We can and possibly should play realpolitik and benefit from our association with such fundamentalists if that's what's required, but they will always be one step ahead at selling us out or gutting us for everything we're worth.

India abstained from voting on the Israel issue in UN assembly, we are politically neutral like we always have been, we'll face very little blowback if any at all once this blows over, just look in Russia/Ukraine war, EU condemned us for buying Russian oil but at the end had to eat their words and buy oil from us

That was all before 7th Oct & before Netanyahu decided to become a wannabe Putin. Wait for next happiness index.

that's not a far comparison, Putin wants to take over Ukraine despite Ukraine haven't done anything to them and did not even start a war over Crimea, unlike Palestine, where they shot thousands of rockets at Israel, peeps really downplay what could have happened to Israel just because of Iron Dome, but what if it wasn't there? and let's not even talk about what those Hamas animals did to those poor people caught in the crossfire.

 

[guest_999]

that's not a far comparison, Putin wants to take over Ukraine despite Ukraine haven't done anything to them and did not even start a war over Crimea, unlike Palestine, where they shot thousands of rockets at Israel, peeps really downplay what could have happened to Israel just because of Iron Dome, but what if it wasn't there? and let's not even talk about what those Hamas animals did to those poor people caught in the crossfire.

I am not talking about Israel justification of war with Hamas, I am talking about Netanyahu trying to project himself as the messiah of Israel without whom Israel will crumble irrespective of their military & other leaders/politicians. In Russia after all, Putin is Russia & Russia is Putin (like how it once was here too with Indira is India & India is Indira).

 

[variablevector]

India abstained from voting on the Israel issue in UN assembly, we are politically neutral like we always have been, we'll face very little blowback if any at all once this blows over, just look in Russia/Ukraine war, EU condemned us for buying Russian oil but at the end had to eat their words and buy oil from us

Yes, we're continuing our very illustrious track record of non-alignment. And I don't have a problem with it.

Abstention is what most of the Anglosphere and a lot of EU countries have done as well. We change nothing by voting against Israel, as UNGA resolutions are merely a farce unless the US enforces them, so I'm not opposed to our decision to do that. Voting with the rest of the world will merely make us feel good, there are no benefits and it will distance us from our only allies.

My comment was more of an observation about the growing love/awe for Israel among Indians. Mostly among nationalists and people to the right. Israel is an anathema to our culture of tolerance and peace. They need to be dealt with cautiously and in a measured way. India, as a democracy, is extremely weak to propaganda and foreign manipulation. I would say even weaker than countries like the US. Success in geopolitics require rationality and game theoretic pragmatism, not blind love for our new bff Israel. Israel realizes this much more than the average country does. We should too.

 

[altair21]

Abstention is what most of the Anglosphere and a lot of EU countries have done as well. We change nothing by voting against Israel, as UNGA resolutions are merely a farce unless the US enforces them, so I'm not opposed to our decision to do that. Voting with the rest of the world will merely make us feel good, there are no benefits and it will distance us from our only allies.

exactly! the whole UN is a farce unless US agrees to it

My comment was more of an observation about the growing love/awe for Israel among Indians. Mostly among nationalists and people to the right. Israel is an anathema to our culture of tolerance and peace. They need to be dealt with cautiously and in a measured way. India, as a democracy, is extremely weak to propaganda and foreign manipulation. I would say even weaker than countries like the US. Success in geopolitics require rationality and game theoretic pragmatism, not blind love for our new bff Israel. Israel realizes this much more than the average country does. We should too.

eh, it was the same on the onset of Russia-Ukraine war when Russia offered us those favorable terms for oil, you should have seen the reactions back then on Twitter/Reddit. As for propaganda, 100% agreed there, even educated folks fall to it far too often unfortunately. But religion being as polarising as it is already and all parties playing religion politics, there unfortunately isnt any solution to it.



I know its not the thread for this, but since we are discussing international politics, I thought I'd leave this little gem in https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...o-khalistan-leaders/articleshow/113550874.cms

I am not talking about Israel justification of war with Hamas, I am talking about Netanyahu trying to project himself as the messiah of Israel without whom Israel will crumble irrespective of their military & other leaders/politicians. In Russia after all, Putin is Russia & Russia is Putin (like how it once was here too with Indira is India & India is Indira).

ah, I am not following their PR campaign, so I'll take your word for it.

 

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Old video from the FAA on how to deal with laptop battery fires onboard aircraft. Laptop batteries are much larger so potentially more dangerous than anything in a mobile or tablet.

Just pour water to cool the batteries and prevent the spread of heat to adjacent cells. Interestingly, they do not recommend ice of any form as it acts as an insulator and could lead to further fire

Laptops are still allowed in the cabin

More recent from the FAA

 

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If Israel subdues Hezbollah, before election day, will be massive win for Democarats.

Does taking out the entire senior leadership qualify? or will more subduing be required

If the pager attack demonstrates how penetrated hezbollah is then this latest development without any boots on the ground settles it.

Goal is to get hezbollah to stop firing at Israel and withdraw 30km from the border.

 

[solo_wing]

Pakistan ka Border Israel ke saath lag hota na...aur nahi bhi laga hota. if only had they been involved somehow.
not one 26/11 mastermind would have been alive.

 

[guest_999]

Pakistan ka Border Israel ke saath lag hota na...aur nahi bhi laga hota. if only had they been involved somehow.
not one 26/11 mastermind would have been alive.

Pakistan is a nuclear power, not even comparable to countries like Lebanon. North Korea is a very good example of what a nuclear power can get away with.

 

[solo_wing]

Pakistan is a nuclear power, not even comparable to countries like Lebanon. North Korea is a very good example of what a nuclear power can get away with.

They would have never been allowed to go nuclear in first place. Had they shared border with Israel.

Second point even under nuclear umbrella . Israel would have gone after 26/11 mastermind . They would have not let them get away. They have a strong will.

 

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Pakistan is a nuclear power, not even comparable to countries like Lebanon.

This is where people go wrong. Nuclear only deters nuclear. Useless against conventional (Balakote operation) or subconventional (26/11). Nukes did nothing to prevent either of those two operations.

The kind of nuclear you're thinking of only applies to US or Russia. Ones with the thousand plus arsenals. That can deter conventional & subconventional as we saw during the cold war.

North Korea is a very good example of what a nuclear power can get away with.

It's their conventional ability to destroy south korea that keeps everyone back. That and an unwillingness by China & S. Korea to absorb 25+ million refugees. Japanese aren't too keen about a unified Korea either.

Nuclear is just an extra guarantee/bargaining chip

 

[solo_wing]

This is where people go wrong. Nuclear only deters nuclear. Useless against conventional (Balakote operation) or subconventional (26/11). Nukes did nothing to prevent either of those two operations.

The kind of nuclear you're thinking of only applies to US or Russia. Ones with the thousand plus arsenals. That can deter conventional & subconventional as we saw during the cold war.

Even China has quite a huge nuclear arsenal I think.
I mean reports puts it to about 500-600 something.
But that was many years ago.
Since Chinese don't reveal much hard to say ofcourse but should be close to thousand atleast.

 

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Even China has quite a huge nuclear arsenal I think.
I mean reports puts it to about 500-600 something.
But that was many years ago.

Less than that. You can check federation of American scientists bulletin to get the numbers. Equation between China & India is the same presently. But China wants to increase their numbers because the Americans know the location of all their silos and could take them out in a first strike. So China would prefer to get to 800. Americans think more but as the latest fas bulletin points out Americans historically have overestimated the arsenals of adversaries.

What does India do? Develop SSBNs. Best place to hide our nukes is in the sea. But that requires a mindset change to be made within the administration. China cannot be assured in that case we don't let off a few on them from subs. Deterrence is maintained.

Since Chinese don't reveal much hard to say ofcourse but should be close to thousand atleast.

That's their future aspiration. Whether it happens or not is to be seen but now you know why they want to increase their present arsenal.

 

[Decadent_Spectre]

There's a big difference between a nuclear weapon and the ability to quickly and effectively hit a target anywhere in the world. Also needless to say mass means everything, especially when you want to cover a large land area.

Americans historically have overestimated the arsenals of adversaries.

If you don't know this then as best as I could gather (going by memory of what I read somewhere) that during the cold war the US/NATO severely underestimated the USSR/Warsaw Pact's conventional military strength.

 

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There's a big difference between a nuclear weapon and the ability to quickly and effectively hit a target anywhere in the world. Also needless to say mass means everything, especially when you want to cover a large land area.

Conventional superiority makes nukes less necessary. And a super power has this ability to strike anywhere by definition. What enhances it further is precise targetting. You don't need as large of a bang any more.

If you don't know this then as best as I could gather (going by memory of what I read somewhere) that during the cold war the US/NATO severely underestimated the USSR/Warsaw Pact's conventional military strength.

The quote was in reference to China in the 90s where the Americans thought the arsenal was a lot larger than China had. It's in the fas bulletin so direct quote.

In the cold war both superpowers had tens of thousands when their nuclear doctrines were announced. In Europe the Soviets had conventional superiority and could smash through NATO. So how does NATO deter the Soviets?

With lots and lots of nukes. That wasn't enough. In addition, NATO must have the will to fight a war with nukes and be prepared to strike first.

Now that gave the soviets pause. They adopted a similar position. Neither side crossed the others red lines. It was a stable binary. Much more stable than people thought.

What got them to start the arms reduction talks is the cost of maintaining such an arsenal is very high. Exactly what China & India wanted to avoid and become nuclear on the cheap. But that comes with trade offs. Pakistan pretends to be different but it's in the same boat.

 

[Decadent_Spectre]

Conventional superiority makes nukes less necessary. And a super power has this ability to strike anywhere by definition. What enhances it further is precise targetting. You don't need as large of a bang any more.

The quote was in reference to China in the 90s where the Americans thought the arsenal was a lot larger than China had. It's in the fas bulletin so direct quote.

In the cold war both superpowers had tens of thousands when their nuclear doctrines were announced. In Europe the Soviets had conventional superiority and could smash through NATO. So how does NATO deter the Soviets?

With lots and lots of nukes. That wasn't enough. In addition, NATO must have the will to fight a war with nukes and be prepared to strike first.

Now that gave the soviets pause. They adopted a similar position. Neither side crossed the others red lines. It was a stable binary. Much more stable than people thought.

What got them to start the arms reduction talks is the cost of maintaining such an arsenal is very high. Exactly what China & India wanted to avoid and become nuclear on the cheap. But that comes with trade offs. Pakistan pretends to be different but it's in the same boat.

Nukes serve a different purpose, it has little to do with conventional capability. It's a safety card, and in the modern world something to try and press an opponent without force. In the cold war of course it was just a safety card, MAD. It's a little strange that it's initial use was to end a conventional war and it's later use is to prevent a nuclear one. Also nukes aren't meant as surgical strikes, the US is trying to develop such a world wide weapon but a nuke isn't it. IIRC this weapon is a kinetic weapon, don't remember the name.

While it is true the Soviets conventional capability would have ripped right through Europe and would have been stopped only by the nuclear button (and NATO had nothing else to guarantee it's safety), my point was simply that in those days it is said that the US/NATO underestimated the capability of the USSR. This was after their estimates already included superior numbers for the strength of USSR forces. That's all I was saying. I wasn't talking about the 90's or China. What is the fas bulletin?