This happened because they went from EEC with more sovereignty to the EU where countries lost political AND financial sovereigntyEU have weakened a lot these days in several ways.
I've always thought it was to prevent France & Germany from going to war again. If there are two monsters to the east and the west then it makes sense to form a collective. But they never asserted themselves. They always hinted at it but when it came time to walk the talk they did nothing. The Americans did the heavy lifting and still do. This lot was incapable of taking on Libya without the US. What hope do they have against Russia? Euros have a good reason to hate Russia because Russia kept them up at night for two centuries. The partition of India is in part a product of this paranoia on the part of the British. The peace dividend after the cold war ended was squandered. They could not bring themselves to sit down and work out a common security for Europe. So we ended up with a zero game where one side tries to be more secure at the expense of the other.Root cause for formation of EU itself was similar behavior from USA.
The USA controls when they are allowed to control. The Euros were willing. There was a speech by Biden from '97 at the second round of NATO expansion where he says the Euros are politically immature and need a guiding hand. Can you blame him ?But USA know control everyone like how a puppet master play his puppets.
If this is going to be an Asian century then these institutions are going to have to either reform or be replaced.Even UN is a white elephant made of paper these days, hollow from within.
This won't change until countries stop exporting their best and brightest to the US. It is a vicious cycle, they are rich and use that wealth to extract resources from countries and keep them poor.Can you blame them ? No, because you are weak and let USA guide you. But, why are you weak to start with ?
See the Brent price over the last few monthsThe White House asked Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to make the case personally to some Gulf state finance ministers, including from Kuwait and the UAE, and try to convince them that a production cut would be extremely damaging to the global economy. The US has argued that in the long-run a cut in oil production would create more downward pressure on prices – the opposite of what a significant cut would be designed to accomplish. Their logic is that “cutting right now would increase risks of inflation,” lead to higher interest rates and ultimately a greater risk of recession.
“There is great political risk to your reputation and relations with the United States and the west if you move forward,” the White House draft talking points suggested Yellen communicate to her foreign counterparts.
I am guessing Russian oil will get expensive, but will still be cheaper then the middle eastern oil.OPEC+ decided to slash production by 2mn barrels. Biden & co tried to dissuade this move but failed.
Let's see where it stabilises.
That is a function of US powerIf USA know how to play everyone like puppets, there is never going to be an Asian century.
The US wanted to prevent more countries from going nuclear. Allies were included under their nuclear umbrella and NPT for the rest.Yes, others let USA control them, because they are weak. USA will never let them be strong.
The US underwrote the peace in Europe, ME & far east since WW2. A retrenchment in any of those regions will create a vacuum and lead to chaos.USA want everybody to be weak so that they can be that guiding hand.
Like creating a political Stockholm syndrome between countries.
Can't spend as much as they do on defence. And when asked still unwilling. Under Trump, there were noises in France & Germany that they would spend more since the US was becoming unreliable. All that talk disappeared after he left office. Numerous US presidents have asked the Euros to increase defence spending yet they dragged their feet. If you expect the US to come and defend you then you will have to do as the US says.Can you blame them ? No, because you are weak and let USA guide you. But, why are you weak to start with ?
That is provided the Russians do not respond with a further production cut in response to this price cap on their oil. If they cut production then they sell less and the discounts offered will also reduce.I am guessing Russian oil will get expensive, but will still be cheaper then the middle eastern oil.
Last month Russia was in second place for Indian market share. May be it will be at top, after the oil production is reduced. While in the EU and US, we may see a sri lanka type protests as winter sets in.
Other OPEC members have not invested in creating spare capacity.Riyadh fears that Russian output could fall sharply later this year when western sanctions against the country’s oil exports tighten, and is keen to keep some spare production capacity in reserve, according to people familiar with Saudi Arabia’s thinking.
Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Nasser said current oil prices, which have fallen to less than $90 a barrel from a high of $139 earlier this year, reflected a market focused “on short-term economics rather than supply fundamentals”.
Under-investment meant that global spare capacity, defined as extra crude supply that could be brought online quickly in the event of unforeseen incidents, remained “extremely low” and would be “completely eroded” if China relaxed its long-running Covid-19 restrictions and began to consume more
This is good news for American frackers. They will start up and supply will slowly increaseIf China opens up, [the] economy starts improving or the aviation industry starts asking for more jet fuel, you will erode this spare capacity,” he said. “And when you erode that spare capacity the world should be worried. There will be no space for any hiccup — any interruption, any unforeseen events anywhere around the world.”
Saudi Aramco, which — buoyed by rising oil prices — overtook Apple this year as the world’s most valuable company, is one of the few producers investing in increasing output. The state-owned group is in the process of boosting its maximum production capacity from 12mn barrels a day to 13mn b/d by 2027. Nasser stressed that this decision had been taken in 2020 and that it would be extremely difficult for the rest of the industry to suddenly ramp up long-term supply, implying that the world was in for a prolonged period of high oil prices. “Even if we decide we are going to increase investment, it is going to be difficult; it will take a number of years.”
India has not said what it will do about the price cap. They said they would study the proposal. I'm taking that as a polite no ?Coming four weeks before the US midterm elections, many in Washington took the unexpectedly large output cut as a personal attack on President Joseph Biden. The fact that OPEC+ hastily gathered in person in Vienna, rather than via video-conference as scheduled, reinforced that perception. The form of the meeting mattered as much as the substance.
The in-person meeting allowed Alexander Novak, the Russian deputy prime minister under US sanctions, to travel to Vienna. He took the occasion to warn that Russia will stop supplying any country that accepts the G7 oil price cap. The OPEC+ cuts make the threat easier to implement, and therefore more worrying.
The oil-output cut will have two major consequences. Economically, it will keep inflation elevated for longer, forcing the Federal Reserve and every other major central bank into even more restrictive monetary policies, increasing the odds of a global recession. Politically, it’s a boost for Russian President Vladimir Putin in two ways. It channels more money to the Kremlin, which is desperate for revenue to keep its war machine in Ukraine alive and buy local support for the faltering military campaign. And it signals that Riyadh is in the Russian camp, willing to publicly snub Washington. Others in the Middle East, Africa and Asia will feel more comfortable cozying up to Russia.
The US and its Western allies need to pay attention. For the first time in recent energy history, Washington, London, Paris and Berlin don’t have a single ally inside the OPEC+ group. During 1973-74, the White House could count on Iran, then still controlled by the Shah; in 1979, during the Islamic Revolution, Saudi Arabia was a helpful friend. In 1990, when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, both the Saudis and the Venezuelans came to the rescue. Even in 2003, when Washington went to war in Iraq, Saudi Arabia helped.
This week, Biden officials found their urgent calls to Riyadh, Kuwait City and Abu Dhabi went largely unanswered. OPEC+ is making a mistake, but Western governments need to rethink their energy policies, too. They should be boosting all of their domestic sources, encompassing oil, gas and nuclear but also extending to renewables including wind and solar.
Whether they let others take over is separate. First, there must be willing contenders and there are none. The two contenders would be the euros & Chinese. The first requirement is currency has to be fully convertible. That rules out the Chinese since they are not willing despite the rhetoric. The Euros have had two decades now and while fully convertible isn't in contention. But bilateral currency swaps are possible which is this de-dollarisation process that has begun and will only increase.Till the date US$ is world's reserve currency, their power will stay. And they will not easily let other currencies to take over. That is how others discover where the beacon of freedom and democracy originates.
The US is a sea-faring power. No ships mean no power projection. And if you see the reduction in the navy they have been reducing for the last few decades.With modern technology so much evolved, they don't need city sized ships to fight war and can save tons of resources by not wasting efforts to protect those ships in hostile environments.
It's called deterrence and it is working. It prevents the other things you mentioned. The news reports are wrongly saying escalating. It is not escalating. It is not sabre rattling. It is the same thing that he said at the start. Putin is only repeating it. Responsible thing for him to say considering the nutjobs in Washington. He is not bluffing.As for nuclear power, don't think Russia is gaining much by saber-rattling ? Nuclear power just means traumatizing collateral damage all over the world, mostly attacker will be vaporized from earth.
These situations have occurred in the past. But this one is different with global implications.As for USA's peace influence, it is evolving every single day and is showing. Isn't that how world ended up in this precarious situation.
Regime changes, etc. were good for USA of course. Ensures their ever guiding hands are omnipresent.
Others will take their place. See Somali pirates and the multinational effort it took to handle that.As for defense spending, when world is progressing ahead with less skirmishes, identity divisions, etc. it is not important. But such a situation will not be allowed to happen, then those 'ever guiding hands' will not have any work.
I just remembered Biden does not like fracking because of his climate change agenda. So when he entered office he passed some regulations that limited fracking. He cancelled the Keystone pipeline with Canada. The same problem of fracking and climate change with the EUThe moment frackers are up and running with initial bulk volumes, Saudi and OPEC will increase their crude output and ensure frackers lose.
EU has always been a contradiction in several ways. They will proclaim ideals but have been cosy with dictators for decades, even having one within their ranks now. They will stand for innovation and then have the strictest regulations. They will stand for integration and fracture the countries internally.EU have weakened a lot these days in several ways.
Root cause for formation of EU itself was similar behavior from USA.
But USA know control everyone like how a puppet master play his puppets.
Even UN is a white elephant made of paper these days, hollow from within.
Maduro has had multiple assasination attempts. With US mercenary contractors, drone with bombs etc.The question is when will Venezuelan oil start flowing? no clarity. Depends on Maduro. The deal is he will allow free and fair elections in 2024. The opposition party in Venezuela is backed by the US.
He will be happy to sell to anyone as long as he can and that happens only if sanctions are lifted. Also, the US will release his frozen reserves. Chevron does the pumping there and if things improve develop further oil infrastructure. There seems to have been a goodwill gesture of releasing people from both sides.Why would Maduro now sell oil to US.
The pricing is shrewd. They drop prices in Europe to compete with the onset of more US crude and keep them steady in Asia to compete with the onset of Russian crude expected towards the end of the yearSaudi Arabia lowers oil prices for Europe but raises them again for the US as White House says OPEC+ is siding with Russia
Saudi Arabia lowers oil prices for Europe but raises them again for the US as White House says OPEC+ is siding with Russia
State-run oil giant Saudi Aramco hiked prices by $0.20 a barrel for all US grades, while northwest Europe and the Mediterranean saw declines.markets.businessinsider.com
Natural, in what world does the buyer set the price ?!?!"This is hugely political and a very clear signal of OPEC's discontent regarding the price cap," Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told the Financial Times. "Regardless of whether the price cap is actually effective, they see this as a dangerous precedent."
That is more down to who is in the WH.Imagine what will happen to fracking industry in long term.