Bigger question is how is russia gonna respond if Ukraine attacks these regions. Will they use nukes? It’s going to a game of chicken.
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Northstar
They will have to change from SMO into something more. It's a legal & policy question for them implying more resources. Stronger responses. These are questions that cause concern in Russia because of the family connections. Low intensity is ok, raising the tempo means more destruction and casualties which means more resistance from Russians.
Up to now, the Russian military has not fought in Donbas. Only offered air support and artillery cover. The bulk of the fighting there was by the local militias, Chechens and Wagner mercs. In the southern areas like Kherson and Zphy the Russians went in and the opposition to them melted away.
The people who ask this question don't know the first thing about nukes.
In Putin’s own words… “I am not bluffing.”
War attrition is more to Russia than Ukraine. West is not participating directly but will be willing to provide as much money as needed to fight russia. If russia escalates the west will supply more. HIMARs are already beating the crap out of russia. Nothing is stopping west from supplying more advanced weapons.
Bottom line, as long as russia keeps this as traditional warfare it is going to lose. If Putin uses nukes; we all will lose.
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Northstar
That was implied at the start. The west did not intervene. so Putin succeeded. Russian deterrence still holds. Nothing has changed.
Russia has total reserves of 25 million. They are calling up 1% of those reserves and it's only those with required skill sets. These are people with experience. What does Ukraine have? They've lost over half of their experienced military. They've already had many rounds of calling up reserves. Each batch is less experienced than the one that passed on.
The west can send as many weapons as they want. They will either end up captured or destroyed. See the pattern so far. Those javelins ended up being lemons as old stock many had batteries that did not work so not the game changer they were touted to be. Then came the M777 of which we too bought 150. Those were taken out quickly and there are lessons in there for us. Then came these Himars which scored some shots but half of them are gone. Himars burns through ammo quickly. Where do the supplies from? If they are on trains all Russia has to do is take out the feeder station these trains are on and then the train stops dead in its tracks and becomes a sitting duck for the Russian AF. So providing weapons is fine. Getting them to the front line a very different question. I'd be surprised if 25% of what is provided, none of it accounted for even makes it to the front line.
All the game changer weapons the west provided turned out to be duds. Ukraine is now asking for American M1 tanks and German leopards. But the US & Germany won't give them those.
I would say Ukraine lost the moment the first Russian troops crossed the border back in Feb. Until then they had a chance of keeping their country together. They blew it. Too bad. So Putin will never need to use nukes because the west is shit scared to try. Putin's threat was meant to counter western nuclear blackmail
What I found is the west is clueless about Russia. They said the ruble would turn to rubble. Has it? instead, we see Euro and Pound losing value and now close to parity with the dollar. They thought they could topple Putin but instead, western leaders are falling one by one and being replaced by others that will be less adversarial to Russia. Italy's far right scored a win. Borin Johnson is gone. Germany's chancellor is on thin ice. The Swedes have already gone centre right.
To quote the Taliban, Russia has the time but Ukraine and by extension the west is on the clock.
Now, the Afghans are a bunch of people we have to respect whether we like it or not because they refused to fight our war in their country without our boots on the ground. Ukraine agreed to all of the above and is paying the price.
IMO, this will go on till Russia's strategic nukes start moving out of bunkers, then suddenly the tone of west will change.
Putin will get the strategic nukes out before using a tactical nuke. All this could have ended months ago, but this time the west is playing with fire, instigating Russia to escalate, provoking China, knowing well that this can go horribly wrong in 100 different ways.
Before the Ukraine Russia war, when Nato countries including the US launched cruise missiles at syria, Russian said they intercepted a good chunk of it, which was going to air bases and other military installations. Russian SAMs such as the S300/S400, Pantsir, Buk, Tor etc where use to intercept them. Russia even showed the downed low radar signature cruise missiles with sharpnel holes from russian air defenses.
The US said all the missiles hit their targets.
Fast forward in 2022, Ukraine is using old soviet air defenses, with analog electronics. They are shooting down some of the Russian cruise missiles, drones etc. Now the western media and pentagon, Uk defense ministry are all giving daily brifeings on how effective the the Ukraine is able to take out those missiles. S
Just see the hypocrisy of the west. So the modern Russian systems with digital computing and AESA radars, failed in syria yet the old analog soviet stuff which ukraine is using is very effective.
Regarding the Himars, they are effective. Its only in news if its scored a hit, its not in news when their rockets are intercepted almost daily by russian air defenses. No air defense in the world can defeat all of them, occasioanly some with slip though, like how well the US air defenses protected the saudi arcmo oil fields, from missiles from Yemen.
Yes russian do take down trains with military stuff.
Also how stupid does the US and Nato think the world is regarding the blowing up of Russian gas pipelines.
This guy below is only a few sane western journalists still around, when its comes to foreign relations.
The US said all the missiles hit their targets.
Fast forward in 2022, Ukraine is using old soviet air defenses, with analog electronics. They are shooting down some of the Russian cruise missiles, drones etc. Now the western media and pentagon, Uk defense ministry are all giving daily brifeings on how effective the the Ukraine is able to take out those missiles. S
Just see the hypocrisy of the west. So the modern Russian systems with digital computing and AESA radars, failed in syria yet the old analog soviet stuff which ukraine is using is very effective.
Regarding the Himars, they are effective. Its only in news if its scored a hit, its not in news when their rockets are intercepted almost daily by russian air defenses. No air defense in the world can defeat all of them, occasioanly some with slip though, like how well the US air defenses protected the saudi arcmo oil fields, from missiles from Yemen.
Yes russian do take down trains with military stuff.
Also how stupid does the US and Nato think the world is regarding the blowing up of Russian gas pipelines.
This guy below is only a few sane western journalists still around, when its comes to foreign relations.
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Northstar
Why are gas prices so high in Europe ? I found this article quite informative
www.iea.org
In the noughts, Europe bought gas on long term contracts. So prices for the consumer were stable. Then the shale gas revolution began and the thinking was there is a glut of gas in the market so prices will do down and stay like that. If you have a long term contract then you will be paying above spot rates. So the Euros wanted to have market price reflected in their gas purchases. They opted for a mix of short term contracts and spot market purchases while reducing their share of long term contracts. In 2010 long term contracts made up 80% but by 2020 they had reduced it to 20% long term contracts. In the decade just gone, they saved 70 billion euros. This strategy is fine so long as the gas price does not go up. It did ! and already a year ago the prices shot up and since they are more exposed to market price swings they are in trouble.
What surprised me was the UK was having the same high gas prices as the EU. But how can this be when the UK only gets 10% of gas from Russia which can easily be substituted? The thing is the UK is no different to the EU because they too diversified away from long term contracts. They are in the same bind as the continent.
How to fix it? lift or reduce sanctions. Get gas in return. Simple. They won't do that. So the german chancellor and Biden earlier go to the Gulf cap in hand begging for more gas. But the Gulf cannot meet the demand. Even the US cannot.
Now, the new development is Nordstream 2 seems to have developed a leak. These pipelines have a lifetime of at least a century. Nordstream 2 was built recently so to develop a leak means it was sabotaged. The idea is to reduce Russia's leverage. People in the EU cannot protest to open Nordstream 2. Less pressure for the German govt isn't it? Complete madness. first, they bite the hand that feeds them now they cut off the branch they are sitting on. This is the kind of hysteria going on in the EU.
There is no turning back and the Euros are going to have to tough this winter out with just 20% of Russian gas. I'm hearing the reserves are full. Those reserves are good for two months of a normal winter. If it is colder than usual winter they are going without heat. The best part is to get gas out of those reserves you have to pump gas in. So they will be using what little gas they are getting to access their reserves.
www.bbc.com
NATO is starting to throw the toys out of the pram. Russia will have to deal with it.
Despite short-term pain, the EU’s liberalised gas markets have brought long-term financial gains – Analysis - IEA
Despite short-term pain, the EU’s liberalised gas markets have brought long-term financial gains - A commentary by Peter Zeniewski
www.iea.org
In the noughts, Europe bought gas on long term contracts. So prices for the consumer were stable. Then the shale gas revolution began and the thinking was there is a glut of gas in the market so prices will do down and stay like that. If you have a long term contract then you will be paying above spot rates. So the Euros wanted to have market price reflected in their gas purchases. They opted for a mix of short term contracts and spot market purchases while reducing their share of long term contracts. In 2010 long term contracts made up 80% but by 2020 they had reduced it to 20% long term contracts. In the decade just gone, they saved 70 billion euros. This strategy is fine so long as the gas price does not go up. It did ! and already a year ago the prices shot up and since they are more exposed to market price swings they are in trouble.
What surprised me was the UK was having the same high gas prices as the EU. But how can this be when the UK only gets 10% of gas from Russia which can easily be substituted? The thing is the UK is no different to the EU because they too diversified away from long term contracts. They are in the same bind as the continent.
How to fix it? lift or reduce sanctions. Get gas in return. Simple. They won't do that. So the german chancellor and Biden earlier go to the Gulf cap in hand begging for more gas. But the Gulf cannot meet the demand. Even the US cannot.
Now, the new development is Nordstream 2 seems to have developed a leak. These pipelines have a lifetime of at least a century. Nordstream 2 was built recently so to develop a leak means it was sabotaged. The idea is to reduce Russia's leverage. People in the EU cannot protest to open Nordstream 2. Less pressure for the German govt isn't it? Complete madness. first, they bite the hand that feeds them now they cut off the branch they are sitting on. This is the kind of hysteria going on in the EU.
There is no turning back and the Euros are going to have to tough this winter out with just 20% of Russian gas. I'm hearing the reserves are full. Those reserves are good for two months of a normal winter. If it is colder than usual winter they are going without heat. The best part is to get gas out of those reserves you have to pump gas in. So they will be using what little gas they are getting to access their reserves.
An example
Nord Stream: Ukraine accuses Russia of pipeline terror attack
The allegation comes after both Nord Stream undersea gas pipelines sprang a leak on Monday.
www.bbc.com
NATO is starting to throw the toys out of the pram. Russia will have to deal with it.
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This, I have been hearing and reading about "brainwashed" Russians in the western media since this war started, but the number of Europeans and Americans who believe that Russia somehow sabotaged their own pipeline, all the way near the heart of Europe, is beyond baffling, laughable to an extent.
I am curious to know who took the bold step, the top contenders are US, Poland. Let's see how this plays out.
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Northstar
Second one this month. Last was Sept 3
Tucker mentioned a new pipeline arriving in Poland called the Baltic pipe.
Baltic Pipe - Wikipedia
max is 10 billion cubic metres. So the Poles won't freeze this winter. Yay!
Russia provides Europe with 150 billion cubic metres. What are they going to replace that with
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I am pretty much convinced that it is cia. Maybe we have to wait 50 years before it is declassified.
West is playing the attrition game. USA has nothing to lose. No boots on the ground or anything. They just give more money. Russia can’t seriously keep up with economic game like this. Also, to everyone who thinks Russia has a lot of soldiers; why are they drafting people to military?
Agreed, the west can play this game of attrition a lot longer than Russia. Unless Putin is willing to play Russian Roulette with his nukes and actually bring them into play, he will most likely not only lose his political power but also his life. There was a time when those 300K additional soldiers would have helped the Russian army meaningfully in bringing Ukraine to the negotiating table, but IMO that ship has now sailed.
One thing I don't understand is when the question is becoming existential for Putin and to some extent Russia itself, why are they still not taking out all of Ukraine's critical infrastructure ?
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Anti tank weapons smuggled in can obliterate even a armoured presidential car.
Already many in Washington , including the sleepy joe where calling for putin to be taken down. So they still need new troops there at russian borders, while existing troops who have experience and training are sent to battle or simply be able to hold on the captured territory.
Russian air force are still pounding ISIS and turkey backed terrorists in syria.
Russian airforce still trolls nato and US airspace.
Wagner services are seeked in various countries that do not like the west.
As far as who has the motives to blow up NS1, NS2 pipes. USA, UK, Ukraine, Poland. Out of these only USA is sort of immune from condemnation from EU. Because US gives nuke umbrella for many nato countries, also has biggest share in nato both financially and militarly. They are or were the worlds largest oil and gas producers.
Just look the press conferences from the secretary of state.
They said, "no one gains from this, but then the very next sentence is atleast its ends EU dependence on Russian Gas and they further add USA is the worlds largest LNG supplier and we are ready to support EU with US energy".
Also the location where the pipes where blown up, few days or weeks back. A US navy MH60R helicopter was flying around in circular pattern. The helicopter has a highly sensitive magnetometer perfect for detecting a 1.5inch thick steel pipe.
People have overlayed the flightpath and the areas of leak detections. This info, overlayed images have been promptly deleted by pretty much every western defense forum, social media etc.
So when this happens usually this sort of info is then put in some unknown websites. Which the MSM media and everyone else can easily label them as conspiracy theory websites.
Hunter biden laptop, they all where deleted from MSM and social media, it ended up being discussed in conspiracy theory websites, after the elections, the FBI who asked facebook to supress this during 2020 elections finally admitted they do have the laptop.
If one follows news from russian telegram channels vs the western media. The amount of BS and lies shown in the western media is just appauling.
India is now going to export pinaka MRLS to Armenia, while Azaris get MRLS from turkey.
Last year we had sold them artillery finding radar.
I think with Russian defense industry capacity is all diverted to their own military. Countries like Armenia which have soviet MRLS want to diversify their procurement.
Also not sure what version they asked for but some of Pinaka versions out range the ones Azaris got from turkey.
Pinaka also has guided versions for better CEP(accuracy) and long range versions but they are still undergoing final user trails.
But from news articles Armenia wants its fast.
This obviously has been done without Russian approval. Since Armenia is in their sphere of influence and security umberala.
With US trying to extend their influence in Armenia. Nancy polecy US house speaker visited Armenia a week or so back, unannounced.
So Russia is more then happy with India sending in military hardware.
Russians have a big area to guard, we have already seen assassinations, explosions happenings inside mainland russia. Sabotage groups from ukraine, CIA etc . So they still need need troops to guard the borders.
Anti tank weapons smuggled in can obliterate even a armoured presidential car.
Already many in Washington , including the sleepy joe where calling for putin to be taken down. So they still need new troops there at russian borders, while existing troops who have experience and training are sent to battle or simply be able to hold on the captured territory.
Russian air force are still pounding ISIS and turkey backed terrorists in syria.
Russian airforce still trolls nato and US airspace.
Wagner services are seeked in various countries that do not like the west.
As far as who has the motives to blow up NS1, NS2 pipes. USA, UK, Ukraine, Poland. Out of these only USA is sort of immune from condemnation from EU. Because US gives nuke umbrella for many nato countries, also has biggest share in nato both financially and militarly. They are or were the worlds largest oil and gas producers.
Just look the press conferences from the secretary of state.
They said, "no one gains from this, but then the very next sentence is atleast its ends EU dependence on Russian Gas and they further add USA is the worlds largest LNG supplier and we are ready to support EU with US energy".
Also the location where the pipes where blown up, few days or weeks back. A US navy MH60R helicopter was flying around in circular pattern. The helicopter has a highly sensitive magnetometer perfect for detecting a 1.5inch thick steel pipe.
People have overlayed the flightpath and the areas of leak detections. This info, overlayed images have been promptly deleted by pretty much every western defense forum, social media etc.
So when this happens usually this sort of info is then put in some unknown websites. Which the MSM media and everyone else can easily label them as conspiracy theory websites.
Hunter biden laptop, they all where deleted from MSM and social media, it ended up being discussed in conspiracy theory websites, after the elections, the FBI who asked facebook to supress this during 2020 elections finally admitted they do have the laptop.
If one follows news from russian telegram channels vs the western media. The amount of BS and lies shown in the western media is just appauling.
India is now going to export pinaka MRLS to Armenia, while Azaris get MRLS from turkey.
Last year we had sold them artillery finding radar.
I think with Russian defense industry capacity is all diverted to their own military. Countries like Armenia which have soviet MRLS want to diversify their procurement.
Also not sure what version they asked for but some of Pinaka versions out range the ones Azaris got from turkey.
Pinaka also has guided versions for better CEP(accuracy) and long range versions but they are still undergoing final user trails.
But from news articles Armenia wants its fast.
This obviously has been done without Russian approval. Since Armenia is in their sphere of influence and security umberala.
With US trying to extend their influence in Armenia. Nancy polecy US house speaker visited Armenia a week or so back, unannounced.
So Russia is more then happy with India sending in military hardware.
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Northstar
They are creating a narrative. The purpose of the narrative is to counter Russia's partial mobilisation. Perhaps create a pretext for NATO to enter Ukraine into a larger war with Russia. Or entrance into West Ukraine to prevent Russia moving further west and taking Odessa say which is on the cards.
They will have some show trial, kangaroo court investigation and pronounce Russia as a threat for attacking EU infrastructure. Russia will not be allowed to participate in this trial even though its about their infrastructure too and the gas in the pipeline belongs to Russia. This will be like the MH17 downing and of course outcome is known beforehand. NATO will be protecting the last remaining energy infrastructure coming into Europe which is the line that transits Ukraine. Six months into this conflict Russia has not damaged those pipeline but who knows what can happen. Russia has crossed a red line with damaging Nord stream 2 with its secret subs or whatever. So NATO needs to step in and defend whatever is left of Ukraine. That is how NATO can counter the partial mobilisation.
Or they leave things as they are content that Germany has now lost the option to relax sanctions in exchange for gas. EU govts get to say can't do anything about rising prices and inflation because Putin decided to blow up Nord Stream 1 & 2. How can you blame the govt ? not their fault. Even if EU wanted to restart them they cannot do it now because of Putin. So what is the point of protesting. German govt will say that. Czech govt too.
The narrative hasn't yet soldifed. Western media isn't all over this story yet. Maybe they have still not got their scripts to what to say.
There are other ramifications here. What will the insurers say about it? Gazprom only has a 51%, there are other countries in there with stakes too.
Only two actors have the ability, USN & UK's RN. Maybe a joint op. Maybe SAS alone.
In other news those 16 HIMARS they sent earlier have most likely been destroyed. So they are allocating one billion to send another 18 more. They are putting together an eight round of sanctions because the last seven were just so awesome they had to do it again
It wasn't built by russian companies it was mix of norway, italian companies.If the Russians can build it then they can repair it. How long will it take to repair?
Simple question no one is asking
The inside of the pipes will be filled with corrosive sea water. The firms which conducted the survey, design and building was done by Nato countries. So they will not repair it.
The anti corrision coatings was also done by a german company as was the concrete layer around the pipe.
Some say this cannot be fixed, unless the pipes have a valve section in sea floor, that way remove and replace everything after that valve.
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Northstar
This press release is from Sept 29
Press Releases - Nord Stream AG
Nord Stream is a natural gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea. The pipeline is a key factor in securing energy security in Europe.
I like how they mention they cannot give a timeframe for restoration because this is the first question to be asked. They have yet to receive official permits to inspect the area. And that can only happen after pressure in the pipe has stabilised and the leak has stopped.
Who We Are - Nord Stream AG
Nord Stream is a natural gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea. The pipeline is a key factor in securing energy security in Europe.
Those stakeholders don't just go away. Who is going to compensate them for this loss? The consortium that built it has to fix it somehow.
From Pipes to Pipeline - Nord Stream AG
Nord Stream is a natural gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea. The pipeline is a key factor in securing energy security in Europe.
I'm sure it can be done. They must have sections that are isolated or able to be isolated in case of a rupture, so you don't lose the entire pipe
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Northstar
Some excerpts from Putin's speech at the accession of the new territories. You could call it the culmination of an eight-year struggle. What is curious about this speech is he is not only speaking to his people but also the global south. He's trying to identify with us. He says Russia was also colonised. He's taking Russia away from the west. No Russian leader has done that before.
The answer is neither. India will be the third pole. India is not neutral, India will take positions which serve our national interest and we have common interests with both sides. That will not change. This is why our diplomats hang out with both sides and meet regularly.
We will never be anyone's ally. India will not get cornered with this 'with us or against us' crap. India is too big for that. What will happen is both sides will vie for India because whichever position India takes is in favour of, that side becomes heavier. That is how we will play things to our benefit. We are not interested in fighting other people's wars. This country's national priority is to uplift its people.
There is a sense of vindication in this speech. The world (rest of the world) knows Russia has arrived on the world stage thanks to the leadership of this man over the last couple of decades.
This has echoes of what Modi said about 370
Western interest toward Russia shifted from adversarial to colonial after the cold war ended. Think Africa before colonialism. Rich in resources. Ripe for the taking.
Russia wanted into the club but was not allowed in. So it will create its own club.
He did hint at this in his 2007 Munich security conference which amounted to Russia not willing to live in a world dominated by the US. You could say that was the start of a multipolar world. A shift away from the US-dominated unipolar. When people scoff at this I tell them multipolar means the US cannot treat Putin, XJP or Modi like Gaddafi.
So if the world is split into two camps. Which side will India join? This question of which side to join is for countries lesser than India to worry about.
The answer is neither. India will be the third pole. India is not neutral, India will take positions which serve our national interest and we have common interests with both sides. That will not change. This is why our diplomats hang out with both sides and meet regularly.
We will never be anyone's ally. India will not get cornered with this 'with us or against us' crap. India is too big for that. What will happen is both sides will vie for India because whichever position India takes is in favour of, that side becomes heavier. That is how we will play things to our benefit. We are not interested in fighting other people's wars. This country's national priority is to uplift its people.
It's interesting to hear a Russian use the word racist towards the west but that is exactly what it is in this otherwise white-on-white spat.
Let's call this the Ukraine-isation of the EU. Elected parties that answer to larger foreign interests before their own people. Obvious from an Indian pov.
The usual neocon/neolib statecraft at play
For a long time, it was thought if you control capital you control the world. But now this idea is being challenged by one with food, fertiliser and fuel.
There is a sense of vindication in this speech. The world (rest of the world) knows Russia has arrived on the world stage thanks to the leadership of this man over the last couple of decades.
/Facepalm
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