When we are forced to submit statistical analysis amidst an epidemic ( happened during Ebola), we use absolutely crude measurements like doubling time, some even use T half.
Trust me on this, when something like covid 19 happens, these values are absolutely useless. They are only useful for retrospective analysis.
Even measuring mortality before reaching the downward limb of an epidemic is of little practical value ( unless CFR ís very high)
We epidemiologists tend to calculate a lot while working as clinicians.
Normal clinicians don't look at a patient's address. I do, all the time...and plays continuously at back of my mind..trying to calculate how many cases are we going to get from that area...how much time do I have to clear some ER beds/ how many ventilators do I have/ whom can I extubate the earliest with least risk.
Calculating so much stresses you out, you take wrong decisions and they come back to haunt you.
Yes, I can say with absolute conviction, that no effective vaccine will ever come. Each and every virologist/ immunologist/ epidemiologist who has contact with reality knows this.
That's why we are against this pointless lockdowns.
Trust me on this, when something like covid 19 happens, these values are absolutely useless. They are only useful for retrospective analysis.
Even measuring mortality before reaching the downward limb of an epidemic is of little practical value ( unless CFR ís very high)
We epidemiologists tend to calculate a lot while working as clinicians.
Normal clinicians don't look at a patient's address. I do, all the time...and plays continuously at back of my mind..trying to calculate how many cases are we going to get from that area...how much time do I have to clear some ER beds/ how many ventilators do I have/ whom can I extubate the earliest with least risk.
Calculating so much stresses you out, you take wrong decisions and they come back to haunt you.
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Yes, I can say with absolute conviction, that no effective vaccine will ever come. Each and every virologist/ immunologist/ epidemiologist who has contact with reality knows this.
That's why we are against this pointless lockdowns.