I'm a commerce guy so I have to interject.
Economy- By economy I presume you're talking about GDP? GDP is just one of the indicators of overall economic situation. India is one of the youngest country in the world. Our economy was rising Year on year after 2008 financial crash until Demonitisation put a stop to it. We should have passed UK atleast 2 years ago considering UK pounds fell 20% in value compared to 8% rupees in same period.
IMF head admits that in interview on IMF site itself. Dont tell me IMF is anti national now.
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Article...trong-Economy-Continues-to-Lead-Global-Growth
Another important factors you're missing is per capital GDP, Human develpment Index, Innovation Index and Quality of life, which india is far behind UK.
Our economy will continue to grow since we have so much working population unless something drastic like demonitisation occurs and briefly halts the growth rate. We are expected to cross Japan and Germany (In GDP) by 2025 going by the current rate.
India has over 20 times more population than UK. That means Indian per capita GDP only needs to be one twentieth to equal entire UK GDP. That is the basis on which China can surpass the US and become the top economy. Chinese per capita GDP only needs to be one quarter US GDP. The flip side when that happens is China can spend much more on its military.
Economy is a very complex subject, you can make any number of arguments for and against but the bottom line is we're doing well. I'd have been happier if we didn't have a replay of Mao's useless war on the sparrows aka notes ban.
Key phrase in that IMF report is building on the success of reforms meaning still more reforms. The problem is vested interests get in the way every time. We had an opening in the 90's but could only go so far as resistance builds up. What happened to labour reforms ? That proved to be too big a fight for this govt to handle. So we will have to see who tackles it next.
We will be third economy in ten years and that is with the current rate of growth. If it speeds up then sooner. But this still isn't our historical best which was 23% world GDP in the early nineteenth century. In other words #2 and i think we can surpass China because post 2030, the Chinese will grow older. People laugh at this suggestion but consider that in 1990 both were the same size of GDP. For a while now i've heard China is stuck in a middle income trap and China's boom is increasingly a bubble. What China is presently doing is what Japan did to sustain its high growth in the 90s. Spend big on infrastructure and that bubble burst ten years later. Why does a high growth country become more authoritarian if its doing so well ? This is not confidence its paranoia.
Don't tell me then that BJP (or congress, whoever is in power) are responsible for it.
Why not if Narasimha opened the economy up and subsequent administrations maintained that policy don't they all get credit ? This is a relay race. The BJP have not dropped the baton.
Jobs : if you reject data from the links you posted, what can I do lol? if your argument is jobless people will torch buses burning, I'll say that jobless people are busy watching youtube on their Jio phones. you say people ask money to pelt stones? I say they are asking money to pelt stones because they dont have jobs to and are free to pelt stones.
Again , our percapita GDP is very low compared to UK so having more jobs will lead to increase in per capita GDP
I've not posted any links about jobs. I've stated that the jobs data isn't very good to draw any conclusions one way or the other. The point is young people are not agitating. They do much more in other countries. Therefore the jobs situation ain't as bad as the opposition makes it out to be. This is empirical and the best argument i've heard to rebut the opposition.
Foreign policy: policy so strong china is pushing boundaries with impunity, pak terrorists attack but not a single credible reaction from both China/USA/ Russia. USA didnt even do anything when it became apparent pak used US F-16 against india. Cherry on top is USA ending preferential trade agreement to India. Granted, Its just a power move by trump (since we don't benefit much from preferential trade agreement) but yeah looks like all those Hugs are for nothing.
We stood up to China pushing boundaries in 2017 and won. What more you want. Nobody opposed or condemned our airstrike that is tacit approval. What US does remains to be seen. Do they want to bury the story that their F16 got shot down by an older jet ? US didn't get involved like in the past and said we have a right to self defense, earlier it was restraint. We get attacked and we're the ones who need to exercise restraint ? Modi turned that on its head by being unpredictable and it was the Paks that were made to return our pilot toute suite without any strings attached. They were the ones being told to exercise restraint. We got a UNSC conemnation for the Pulwama attack and the next day the jets went in. We're currently lobbying to get the Paks on the FATF blacklist. Since your a commerce guy can you tell me what the consequences for Pakistan will be in that case ?
Opposition makes a big deal about Modi hugging MBS. See the optics though, right wing hindu conservative strongman hugging leader of the Islamic world. That can't be bad. We get invited to the OIC, despite the airstrike. a hindu woman presents our case and its the Paks that boycott the OIC meet. What does that say about the way we treat minorities.
These are all wins by our diplomats. That support was made possible due to foreign policy.
Hugs are for the cameras, its the hard nose dealing behind closed doors that decides whether people support us or not.
defense budget, you really cant compare USA and india. USA buys that many weapons because of lobbying of massive Industrial millitary complex
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military–industrial_complex
Only taking in terms of share of GDP. We're under spending. The last govt dragged its feet on defense acquisitions. Reasons are obvious. More budget for populism. Populism wins elections, expensive fighter jets does not.
We're well on the way to building our own industrial military complex. We have to be more self sufficient here if in the future we intend to get our way in this world.
Its been proved since ages that USA starts wars just so that military companies benefit (vietnam/iraq wars/ afghanistan wars) etc . thats why they keep spending 4% of GDP while cutting spending on welfare and NASA. By contrast, 28 member EU spends around 1.3% of GDP
Also most of our military budget (60% iirc. dont quote me on this) goes to salaries and pensions and other expenses and not for buying new missiles/ ships/tanks etc.
Post WW2, the US has underwritten peace in Europe, the middle east & the far east by spending 4% of its gdp, could have been higher during certain periods. The US could do that because as far back as the 90s US made up 30% of the world's GDP. Today it amounts to 17%. People still think the US is that big spender but Trump is trying to change this. By getting others to spend more. This is nothing new, US presidents have been urging allies for at least two decades to do just that.
Salaries and pensions do make up a huge portion of spending. Settling OROP did not come cheap.
