Karnataka Elections 2018

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Yeddy doesn't even need to show a majority to the governor to form the govt, only a floor test will establish that

 
vivek.krishnan said:
Ah but yes it will be unstable, based on precedents. At the end of the day, any alliance is just as strong as its weakest link. Break that link, and the alliance will be broken.
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If we go by precedents, then every political union till now will have been unstable some point or the other[DOUBLEPOST=1526627793][/DOUBLEPOST]
Gearbox said:
  • The Supreme Court has ordered the floor tests to be held at 4.00 pm tomorrow.
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This should clear the doubts once and for all. Talk is 3 MLAs jumped camp to bjp last time I saw the news.
 
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vivek.krishnan said:
Ah but yes it will be unstable, based on precedents. At the end of the day, any alliance is just as strong as its weakest link. Break that link, and the alliance will be broken.
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Yeah well any BJP coalition will be more stable than Congress one, after all BJP has Amit shah aka Vasuli bhai. The possibility of getting murdered when you go out for a morning walk, works as a good deterrent. So a very good point.
 
How many murders or political vendetta killing are done by Amit shah?
Can you prove and why police or media or concerned person family kept quiet?

Proof or stop lying.
 
The Karnataka BJP today welcomed the Supreme Court order on the floor test, asserting that Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa would prove his majority in the assembly with the support of over 120 MLAs.
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I wonder, how they're this much confident on upcoming floor test..
 
adventureguy said:
If we go by precedents, then every political union till now will have been unstable some point or the other
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Quite true, but then there are people who ensure that the coalition stays stitched together.

Here however, the INC is acquising to the demands of the JDS, when it should be the other way around, plus we have political rivalries. The media has put a spin that the INC will get the lion's share of the portfolios, but we all know how that works.

Lets see after the floor test, and how long it stays.
 
vivek.krishnan said:
Quite true, but then there are people who ensure that the coalition stays stitched together.

Here however, the INC is acquising to the demands of the JDS, when it should be the other way around, plus we have political rivalries. The media has put a spin that the INC will get the lion's share of the portfolios, but we all know how that works.

Lets see after the floor test, and how long it stays.
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both bjp and congress needs jds mla. How does it matter if congress is offering posts to jds instead of money like bjp if it means stable alliance?

and even if coalition is unstable, that will only mean new elections or governors rule? so why did governer choose bjp instead of congress jds is what im thinking.
 
adventureguy said:
so why did governer choose bjp instead of congress jds is what im thinking.
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Mandate ?

BJP goes from 40 to 104, Congress falls from 120 to 78

There is a shift towards BJP in this election

Despite what is said in the media, the congress + jds combine wasn't ready in time
 
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blr_p said:
Mandate ?

BJP goes from 40 to 104, Congress falls from 120 to 78

There is a shift towards BJP in this election

Despite what is said in the media, the congress + jds combine wasn't ready in time
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Still BJP didn't get halfway thru. That means half the population don't want BJP. Suddenly AAP goes from 0 to 49% mandate, will you just give them first chance to form government in similar situation like karnataka ? Just like in other states where It formed alliances and formed the government, bjp isn't letting congress do the same by all means necessary. Stopping flights, stopping security what not. Not saying congress/ JDS are bastion of honest politicians but these excuses are getting ridiculous

Anyways, tomorrow should be interesting. Last I heard , 3 MLAs defected to bjp. Lets see if the shah's magic works again
 
Lord Nemesis said:
Supreme court already rubbished it in yesterday. anti-defection will hold even before swearing in.
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ok, the anti-defection law takes effect the moment they are declared winners. There can be no horse trading in this case then isn't it.

In a show of numbers then BJP has to automatically lose because they cannot go higher than 104 which means its a default Congress+JDS win

The only option BJP has to force MLA's to refrain from voting in floor test or to make them resign and conduct elections in those areas again.
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Abstain is the other option being mooted. How does the maths work here.

Jds+ congress =116

So if 5 are persuaded to abstain then jds+congress is 111 or one short of a majority

Now what happens ? neither side can get to 112 :confused:

But congress + jds still wins. That means BJP has to convince more to abstain ?

If 13 abstain then jds + congress = 103 so BJP wins with 104

Now, if i understood SC correctly, there is to be no secret ballot, show of hands only

So those who abstain will be known. What happens to them ? are their abstentions valid[DOUBLEPOST=1526671931][/DOUBLEPOST]
adventureguy said:
Still BJP didn't get halfway thru. That means half the population don't want BJP. Suddenly AAP goes from 0 to 49% mandate, will you just give them first chance to form government in similar situation like karnataka ?
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The supreme court will comment later on the constitutionality of the governors decision to allow BJP to form the govt

I was only speculating as to the reason, the one mentioned is the most coherent i've heard to date. There also seems to be an expectation of stability.

A BJP of 106 + balance will more stable than a jds congress combo
 
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Yes, abstaining is an option, I am also not sure if they can be disqualified as per law for not following the party whip, but floor test as per my understanding just requires a simple majority among the MLA's who swear in and are present on the floor that day. There is no need to reach 113. If they can reduce the opposition votes to less than theirs, they will win.

But you are also forgetting that Modi and his tail Amit Shah are clever scoundrels who won't even attempt to play fair even if purely as a matter of principle. They still have may options which they can use.

1. Even with show of hands, it is their plug in pro tem speaker that needs to acknowledge the count and declare the winner of the vote, so if I am right, he can just declare the winner regardless of the the actual show of hands.
2. They can stage a ruckus and force a voice vote in which case, their pro tem speaker can again just declare a winner without bothering about actual counts.
3. They can prevent some of the MLA's from reaching the assembly. If they hadn't been holed up in one place, even if they were immune to poaching, they could have simply got a few threatened/abducted etc.
4. Even if Cong + JD(S) does win, they can use ED to have some MLA's disqualified and then usurp the power. 77 of the winning MLA's have serious criminal cases against them. 42 of them are from BJP and the rest from cong and JD(S). They can target those opposition MLA's.

In any case, regardless of who wins, the people should get the govt they deserve . I for one, just wish for endless suffering upon the people who voted 77 murderers and rapists from these parties into power.
 
They've filed another petition this evening and to be heard tomorrow in the SC at 10am

- In the application, the combine has demanded setting aside of the decision to appoint BJP MLA Bopaiah as the pro tem Speaker saying it was contrary to the tradition, as per which the post goes to the senior-most legislator. It termed the Governor's action as a "brazen unconstitutional" act to appoint "a junior MLA as the pro tem Speaker.

- The application also seeks certain urgent directions to ensure that the floor test is conducted in a fair and transparent manner.

- The petition also urged the top court to have video recording of the entire trust vote process and conducting of the floor test through "a division' into separate and segregated lobbies so that the persons in the different lobbies can be counted in a transparent manner."

https://www.news18.com/news/politic...-speaker-for-floor-test-tomorrow-1750091.html[DOUBLEPOST=1526676749][/DOUBLEPOST]Cartoonists have had a field day with all the developments

surendra.jpg


Who protects the constitution ? the SC i thought

constitution.PNG
[DOUBLEPOST=1526677580][/DOUBLEPOST]You can see the extent the court has gone to to do just that

open 24h.jpg
 
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Yeah I figured out the end game after reading up on it
Anti-Defection Law

The anti-defection law defines the grounds under paragraph 2 of the Schedule:

When an MLA voluntarily gives up his/her membership of a party
When he/she votes (or abstains from voting) contrary to the directive issued by the party
Independent members would be disqualified if they joined a political party
A party could be merged into another if at least two-thirds of its party legislators voted for the merger
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So, If MLAs abstain, they would come under anti defection law.

Here's the kicker
Power to Disqualify
The Chairman or the Speaker of the House takes the decision to disqualify a member.
If a complaint is received with respect to the defection of the Chairman or Speaker, a member of the House elected by that House shall take the decision.
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So what will happen tomorrow is some MLAs would abstain from voting and since BJP MLA is the speaker, he'll either take too long to disqualify defectors or outright say those MLAs do not come under anti defector law. Given that BJP managed to get governors appointment first while congress- JDS was left waiting, this can happen.

Or it can be a repeat of 2008 and JDS forms an alliance with BJP suddenly[DOUBLEPOST=1526677958][/DOUBLEPOST]Either way, tomorrow's going to be spicy
 
None of these parties have at least even 50% approval. BJP has no better or deserving claim to the throne than Cong or JS(S) or them put together. In fact BJP + JD(S) would have been just as absurd. So its all political games now.

People in our country don't give a damn about getting suitable representatives into power. Consider the fact that cong and JD(S) are afraid that their MLA's would be poached. That itself shows how sellouts have been voted into power. If voting for these people is not bad enough, consider how they voted 77 MLA's with serious criminal cases into power.

So, no voters are not getting back-stabbed. They are getting what they deserve. Unfortunately, innocent people too have to become collateral.
 
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